Marquette: Johnson +6

[wbrocks67]

Is my math off here? How is the LV screen that off when an almost identical amount of Ds and Rs say their almost certain to vote? Is the amount of Rs just way bigger here?

This poll is quite something given that Barnes is actually doing 1pt *better* among RV than September. That was 48-47, and now it's 47-47.

You have to start wondering about the LV screen when there is a *6%* difference between the two.

After the month that Barnes had being attacked, being tied among RV is a great result for him tbh.

[HidingCommentary]

Not to toot my own horn, but there were people who saw this coming.

52.7% Johnson (R, inc.)
47.3% Barnes (D)

(no third-party candidates on the ballot)

Feel free to mock this if I’m wrong, but assuming there’s a turnout surge in November which wasn’t captured by those special elections, this race probably won’t be particularly close. Barnes would an unusual (for a midterm under a Democratic trifecta) turnout gap to win, and I don’t think he’ll get it.

In their defense, the election hasn't happened yet. So abit early too "toot" anything.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

[OneJ]

Funny that Barnes still has better favorables and does better on the values question.

Yeah this is the weird thing to me as to why Johnson's doing so well in spite of this. I guess the ad blitz was damaging enough to enough voters to stop considering to vote for Barnes but still.

[wbrocks67]

Wait, I'm sorry - Barnes leads among Indies by 7 among RV, but then it switches all the way to Johnson +6 among LV? That shift is quite ridiculous.

[wbrocks67]

Wait, I'm sorry - Barnes leads among Indies by 7 among RV, but then it switches all the way to Johnson +6 among LV? That shift is quite ridiculous.

this is giving me "Nevada CNN result" where Masto was up by like 6 among 18-49 year olds and then the LV model switched to Laxalt +7

[AncestralDemocrat.]

One hell of a likely voter screen, race is tied among RV's.

I have said it before so this is not just unskewing a poll to fit my liking but I think RV polls give a better view of the state of the race. A bad LV screen makes for a bad poll.

RV polls give a better view on the race on the basis of what..

Wishcasting ?

I mean we consider the typical WI polling error in recent years.. this could be even worse for Barnes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

One hell of a likely voter screen, race is tied among RV's.

I have said it before so this is not just unskewing a poll to fit my liking but I think RV polls give a better view of the state of the race. A bad LV screen makes for a bad poll.

RV polls give a better view on the race on the basis of what..

Wishcasting ?

Wasn't LAXALT up by 3 on 5/6 polls and he is losing because he was losing the RV model not the LV model the same thing is gonna happen to Johnson it's in the Database how many leads Laxalt had and he is losing by 2 now

[wbrocks67]

One hell of a likely voter screen, race is tied among RV's.

I have said it before so this is not just unskewing a poll to fit my liking but I think RV polls give a better view of the state of the race. A bad LV screen makes for a bad poll.

RV polls give a better view on the race on the basis of what..

Wishcasting ?

Actually, the opposite. LV screens, especially in an environment like this, can be screwy. People who say they "definitely will vote" as opposed to "certain to vote" can be factored out very quickly. Can't rely on them 100%, but they still are more likely to vote than not. Better to just have the entire RV sample than try and say who will and won't vote.

This is why young voters - who yes, are unreliable - are likely getting cycled out because they're more likely to put "definitely vote" instead of "certain", etc.

[Senator Incitatus]

Funny that Barnes still has better favorables and does better on the values question.

We're starting to see a pretty consistent divergence between Republican favorables and actual top-line results (see also: O'Dea being down only seven with an absolutely abysmal <30% favorability). Beginning to wonder if there isn't something wrong with favorability polling nationwide.

I'm casting around wildly for explanations, so take them with an ounce of salt. One could be that Republican voters are more extreme than their politicians and view them unfavorably but nevertheless plan to vote for them, which seems plausible in general, but that wouldn't explain why Masters (probably the most ideologically extreme candidate on the ballot) also has rock-bottom favorables. Or maybe the opposite is true: Republican voters (especially independents) love to play up the "I can't believe you're making me do this" angle and will pretend they find their candidates unpalatable but nevertheless necessary "because of how bad Biden is."

[AncestralDemocrat.]

One hell of a likely voter screen, race is tied among RV's.

I have said it before so this is not just unskewing a poll to fit my liking but I think RV polls give a better view of the state of the race. A bad LV screen makes for a bad poll.

RV polls give a better view on the race on the basis of what..

Wishcasting ?

Actually, the opposite. LV screens, especially in an environment like this, can be screwy. People who say they "definitely will vote" as opposed to "certain to vote" can be factored out very quickly. Can't rely on them 100%, but they still are more likely to vote than not. Better to just have the entire RV sample than try and say who will and won't vote.

This is why young voters - who yes, are unreliable - are likely getting cycled out because they're more likely to put "definitely vote" instead of "certain", etc.

This late into a cycle.. obviously LV screens should be given more credence as we've seen time and again.

This isn't early 2022.

[Minnesota Mike]

One hell of a likely voter screen, race is tied among RV's.

I have said it before so this is not just unskewing a poll to fit my liking but I think RV polls give a better view of the state of the race. A bad LV screen makes for a bad poll.

RV polls give a better view on the race on the basis of what..

Wishcasting ?

I mean we consider the typical WI polling error in recent years.. this could be even worse for Barnes.

LV polls are subject to assumptions made by whoever designed them, RV are polling a known universe. Also in this case LV = "certain to vote". Someone who is 80% to vote is still "likely" but they are not "certain".

BTW for the record my view of this race has not changed all year, Johnson is and always has been  slight favorite.

[If my soul was made of stone]

"Wait, Johnson was always going to win?"
"Always has been."

mandela would be winning if election nerds had been capable of discussing this race without worshipping at the solar idol dying god mithraic hero cult altar of perfect cinnamon roll russ feingold imo

[GeorgiaModerate]

One hell of a likely voter screen, race is tied among RV's.

I have said it before so this is not just unskewing a poll to fit my liking but I think RV polls give a better view of the state of the race. A bad LV screen makes for a bad poll.

RV polls give a better view on the race on the basis of what..

Wishcasting ?

I mean we consider the typical WI polling error in recent years.. this could be even worse for Barnes.

LV polls are subject to assumptions made by whoever designed them, RV are polling a known universe. Also in this case LV = "certain to vote". Someone who is 80% to vote is still "likely" but they are not "certain".

BTW for the record my view of this race has not changed all year, Johnson is and always has been  slight favorite.

ISTR a study that showed that even among those who said they were "certain to vote", only something like 68% actually voted.

[Devils30]

But on a night where they lose WI by 1.5 with a bad candidate? Never know.

NC you always have that possibility of white rural turnout stagnating, black voters giving Beasley a higher margin (look at GA 2020 runoff) and higher Dem margins around the Triangle.

WI trends give GOP plenty of room to grow in the western part of the state.

[SnowLabrador]

What a despicable state. I guess racism is to blame for Barnes' poor poll numbers.

[Gracile]

I'm not surprised; this seat was always a reach in this environment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm not surprised; this seat was always a reach in this environment.

Lol it's not out of reach it's called voting not POLL

[Devils30]

There is no way to reconcile stuff like the LV/RV difference here and say Dems won NY-19 because of higher propensity voters only.

Johnson is favored but pollsters really seem to be struggling badly in deciding what the electorate will look like.

[OSR stands with Israel]

What a despicable state. I guess racism is to blame for Barnes' poor poll numbers.

Here are the top 3 democratic performances in Wisconsin since 1964:

1. Obama 2008
2. Clinton 1996
3. Obama 2012


Notice something here

[SnowLabrador]

What a despicable state. I guess racism is to blame for Barnes' poor poll numbers.

Here are the top 3 democratic performances in Wisconsin since 1964:

1. Obama 2008
2. Clinton 1996
3. Obama 2012


Notice something here

Lots of people who voted for Obama are now full-on QAnon adherents.

[President Johnson]

It's remarkable how Republicans are constantly doing better with LV, and it could be even worse without Dobbs. Not sure Johnson ends up winning by six, but I never believed that he was going to lose in the end.

Lean Republican.

[2016]

Of Course our little liberal friends here on Talk Elections would never admit that BUT the Bottom Line is this: Mandela Barnes is too PROGRESSIVE for Wisconsin. Barnes did say some massive outlandish things during the BLM Protests in 2020.

Let's me clear here: 90 % of Barnes Positions are even to the left of Senator Tammy Baldwin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of Course our little liberal friends here on Talk Elections would never admit that BUT the Bottom Line is this: Mandela Barnes is too PROGRESSIVE for Wisconsin. Barnes did say some massive outlandish things during the BLM Protests in 2020.

Let's me clear here: 90 % of Barnes Positions are even to the left of Senator Tammy Baldwin.

We still wi have the majority 50/50 Senate because LAXALT is losing even if Warnock is forced into runoff because of PA and we still have NC and OH Beasley and Ryan are overperforning Barnes, Beasley is down by 1 pt, I wouldnt be surprised if Ryan and Beasley and Lee win and we lose WI Evers is still winning and this is a Pre Election polls wasn't Molinaro plus 8 you posted, in a Pre Election polls you posted and Ryan won by 3 it's called Exit polls top

[2016]

It's remarkable how Republicans are constantly doing better with LV, and it could be even worse without Dobbs. Not sure Johnson ends up winning by six, but I never believed that he was going to lose in the end.

Lean Republican.

That was always be the case that Republicans would do better with Likely Voters than Regist Voters. It is a slightly Republican-leaning Political Environment despite what that HACK from TargetSmart Bonior claims.