Predict WI Senate

[°Leprechaun]

My vote: Barnes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

51/49 Barnes with Early voting

[Nutmeg]

Heart: Barnes
Head: Johnson

Not sure how that joker keeps eking by.

[Spectator]

Johnson by 1 or 2%

[MT Treasurer]

52.7% Johnson (R, inc.)
47.3% Barnes (D)

(no third-party candidates on the ballot)

Feel free to mock this if I’m wrong, but assuming there’s a turnout surge in November which wasn’t captured by those special elections, this race probably won’t be particularly close. Barnes would an unusual (for a midterm under a Democratic trifecta) turnout gap to win, and I don’t think he’ll get it.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Barnes by less than 1%

[President Johnson]

Ron Johnson: 51.3%
Mandela Barnes: 48.7%

Hope to be wrong.

[SnowLabrador]

Johnson +6.

[xavier110]

52.7% Johnson (R, inc.)
47.3% Barnes (D)

(no third-party candidates on the ballot)

Feel free to mock this if I’m wrong, but assuming there’s a turnout surge in November which wasn’t captured by those special elections, this race probably won’t be particularly close. Barnes would an unusual (for a midterm under a Democratic trifecta) turnout gap to win, and I don’t think he’ll get it.

This is basically my prediction. I expect it to be Johnson+5

[Ferguson97]

Johnson wins but it's going to be close, under 3% or so.

[Roll Roons]

Johnson by 1-2.

[Gracile]

Johnson +4

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson wins but it's going to be close, under 3% or so.

Do you know Early voting is about to start WI doesn't have voter suppression laws in AK and NY 19 our Early voting outshines the Rs

4 pts isn't that hard to make up with Early voting I see users are going back to WI Leans R like we had early this just because Johnson is narrowly ahead

[Ferguson97]

Johnson wins but it's going to be close, under 3% or so.

Do you know Early voting is about to start WI doesn't have voter suppression laws in AK and NY 19 our Early voting outshines the Rs

4 pts isn't that hard to make up with Early voting I see users are going back to WI Leans R like we had early this just because Johnson is narrowly ahead

I wouldn't be shocked if Johnson lost, it's a swing state in a neutral-ish election cycle. I think Barnes could pull it off if Democrats get the right turnout, but I've been burned by too many Wisconsin polls before.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ron Johnson: 51.3%
Mandela Barnes: 48.7%

Hope to be wrong.

Lol guess what Molinaro was leading by before EDay 8 points this is WI Barnes will win I Live in IL right next door to WI they don't like Johnson


Users forget Obama won WI, and Evers and Barnes defeat Kleefisch and WALKER

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson wins but it's going to be close, under 3% or so.

Do you know Early voting is about to start WI doesn't have voter suppression laws in AK and NY 19 our Early voting outshines the Rs

4 pts isn't that hard to make up with Early voting I see users are going back to WI Leans R like we had early this just because Johnson is narrowly ahead

I wouldn't be shocked if Johnson lost, it's a swing state in a neutral-ish election cycle. I think Barnes could pull it off if Democrats get the right turnout, but I've been burned by too many Wisconsin polls before.

It's called early voting just like Ryan is looking for a strong turnout by Labor on Early vote

I think it's 53/54 seats Ryan and Beasly or Demings win and Nan W or Crist wins Nan W was only down44/41 and Crist down51/46

We can win a red state guess what AZ was red turned blue in2018 and GA was red turned blue

[_.]

Johnson due to Trends

2020 was a last hurrah for the Democrats in Wisconsin IMO

It's not like Minnesota, Illinois, or even Michigan, the geography there isn't conducive for Ds.

[It’s so Joever]

Johnson due to Trends

2020 was a last hurrah for the Democrats in Wisconsin IMO

It's not like Minnesota, Illinois, or even Michigan, the geography there isn't conducive for Ds.

Michigan isn’t conducive either.

[It’s so Joever]

Anyways Johnson +6.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You know why we don't get that many polls in WI because they had it Biden plus 14 last time so that's why we get so few polls and now Johnson has a narrow lead and omg WI is back Lean R and Molinaro in NY 19, which is a blue state like WI was plus8 and D's won and Biden was at 45/53 that tells you Barnes can win WI is a blue state not red state and with Early vote overcome an R lead

[Real Texan Politics]

Johnson wins (sane)

[redjohn]

Johnson+5 is my guess.

[Schiff for Senate]

Johnson by 2 to 3 in the end.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Johnson due to Trends

2020 was a last hurrah for the Democrats in Wisconsin IMO

It's not like Minnesota, Illinois, or even Michigan, the geography there isn't conducive for Ds.

Just curious what has all this talk about WI having a particularly stronger rightwards trend than PA or MI been about? All 3 states have been remarkably in lockstep for about 2 decades now and even during the Trump era they all marched right pretty uniformly, WI just had the biggest polling error.

Imo Johnson wins, but the evidence really isn’t there that WI has significantly worse “trends” for Dems than a state like PA. Wisconsin would def have a worse trend if it weren’t for how powerful  and fast growing Madison is plus if Rs weren’t already at their ceiling in WOW.

[_.]

Johnson due to Trends

2020 was a last hurrah for the Democrats in Wisconsin IMO

It's not like Minnesota, Illinois, or even Michigan, the geography there isn't conducive for Ds.

Just curious what has all this talk about WI having a particularly stronger rightwards trend than PA or MI been about? All 3 states have been remarkably in lockstep for about 2 decades now and even during the Trump era they all marched right pretty uniformly, WI just had the biggest polling error.

Imo Johnson wins, but the evidence really isn’t there that WI has significantly worse “trends” for Dems than a state like PA. Wisconsin would def have a worse trend if it weren’t for how powerful  and fast growing Madison is plus if Rs weren’t already at their ceiling in WOW.

The Non-Hispanic Whites in Wisconsin's Small Towns and Rural Areas are anomalously Democratic compared to the national average. In 2020, they only voted R+15 as compared to numbers such as R+30 to R+40 even in neighboring Minnesota or Michigan. This group of people makes up 49% of the population of the state.

As the nationalization of politics continues, these regional anomalies are slowly getting stamped out. We saw what happened to Missouri, then Iowa after that. It only makes sense that Wisconsin is next.

Michigan and Pennsylvania, looking at the math, have less room to fall (about half as Wisconsin does) in these areas of their state, so the most obvious concern in all these three states for the Democratic party is more intense in Wisconsin.

To top it off, Dane County is relatively small, and even though it may be proportionally growing fast, the raw numbers just don't add up for it to currently outbalance very much. Focusing on it is like focusing on the Indianapolis suburbs.


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