Malaysia 2022 General Election Nov 19th

[Joseph Cao]

Before we start, there are a few more important dates coming up:

• The Selangor DAP candidates (of which more later) will be announced Thursday evening, Malaysian time
• A few "special" first-time PKR candidates were announced Wednesday morning Malaysia time. The seats they're contesting will be revealed on Friday so unless one of them suddenly hits the news I'll talk about them then, although it's all but inevitable that one of them is contesting Wangsa Maju: that's the only open PKR seat in the Federal Territories, Fahmi Fadzil and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad are still running in their seats, the Bandar Tun Razak seat will almost certainly be Wan Azizah, and I can't see the Batu chapter dumping both Prabakaran and Tian Chua – it'll be one or the other
• Melaka PH will be announcing all their candidates once the state Amanah chapter finalizes its list, which will be on Sunday
• As previously mentioned, the DAP candidates for Perlis, Penang, and Kedah will be announced this weekend. Probably this will be concurrent with the other component parties
• Sabah PH is announcing their full slate on Monday
• And Johor PH will be doing likewise next Wednesday, November 3rd.

I just want to note as well that PSM-MUDA talks with the PH coalition were supposed to conclude around today if the timelines given previously were accurate. No word on that yet. Sungai Siput being a point of contention would not surprise me; Michael Jeyakumar still hasn’t gotten assurances that he will be allowed to run after what happened in 2018 and once bitten, twice shy, as they say. Personally if he could defeat Samy Vellu in that seat I’m not sure what the hangup is. This isn’t anything like the Tawfik situation with late requests for a candidacy.

But the real relevance right now is that Samy as the Works Minister under Mahathir I and Badawi oversaw the construction of a large number of highways, which are our theme for today; as a matter of fact every highway mentioned in this post and the next was built or expanded under his tenure.

We have, as exhibit A, the East Coast Expressway E8 which cuts across Pahang from Karak in Bentong at its west end to Kuantan on the east coast, running parallel to the East–West Highway (Federal Route 2) for its whole length. Samy had plans to extend it up to Terengganu, complete with toll fees, which was maybe the motivating factor in PAS taking over Terengganu in 1999 as part of the opposition wave. That this was barely felt over the border in Pahang – as tends to happen in Pahang – perhaps was a motivation for the continued development that BN showered in the Kuantan area. Despite current PKR MP Fuziah Salleh’s electoral debut in that same election of 1999 the administration went ahead and built a rare earth processing plant, owned and operated by the Australian company Lynas, up the highway in Gebeng right by the Terengganu border; after Fuziah won the seat in 2008 she helped to form a citizens’ pressure group against the plant which evolved into the Stop Lynas campaign which has probably been covered to death in some old Malaysia thread somewhere on the intertubes if not on this Blog.

The important thing for our purposes is they eventually linked up with a Bentong environmentalist named Wong Tack and the group he founded separately to protest the plant, Himpunan Hijau (Green Assembly). Wong eventually became chair of the Stop Lynas group as a whole and in that capacity went back west to Bentong in 2013 to run as the DAP candidate against MCA president Liow Tiong Lai. He peeled off almost all of Liow’s margin on the strength of a huge turnout surge and finished the job in 2018. Development has not gone the way Wong would like however; the Lynas saga has sort of petered out without anything much being done, which can be laid squarely at Mahathir’s feet, and Bentong has come to be ever more reliant on the economic traffic generated by the highways cutting through the seat since the local FELDA holdings hardly pay their way forward.

On Wednesday morning, Malaysia time, DAP announced their candidates in Pahang and notably dropped Wong from Bentong and replaced him with an up-and-comer in the state assembly, Young Syefura Othman, who would be DAP’s first Malay woman MP if elected. Now on paper this was a smart move; DAP urgently needs to expand its image beyond the ethnic-minority caricature that people love to criticize, Young Syefura has been extremely active and present locally and is, well, young, and hardly anyone in DAP or in Bentong has been looking forward to Liow (who is running again) slamming Wong for not even being able to close the plant. But the language used by DAP chairman Anthony Loke when talking about his convos with Wong was pretty ominous and indicative of Wong not seeing things that way. Now Wong has bolted and is standing as an independent, for which he can draw on his environmental groups as an electoral base of support if he wants. Liow Tiong Lai is, as we speak, undoubtedly popping some of that extremely expensive champagne he was photographed with a couple of years ago.

Pahang DAP also picked an excellent date to announce another significant opposition gamble: putting Raub MP Tengku Zulpuri, the only Malay MP from DAP and a member of the Pahang royal family, into the safe BN seat of Lipis. Of course DAP contesting Malay seats at all is a gamble and Tengku Zulpuri would make things closer on an ethnicity basis if nothing else, but 20 police reports were lodged against him yesterday for allegedly “insulting the Pahang royal family”. Excuse me while I roll my eyes. Police reports are a well-known tactic to cow the opposition of course; still, they wouldn’t be tried so often if they didn’t work on some of the people BN wants to win. When Tengku Zulpuri loses and if (very likely when) Young Syefura also loses, DAP will have zero Malay MPs; the replacement in Raub is Tras assemblyman Chow Yu Hui and the Cameron Highlands sacrificial lamb (going up against the only Orang Asli MP, UMNO's Ramli Mohd Noor) is Tanah Rata assemblyman Chiong Yoke Kong. Nice going, guys.

[Joseph Cao]

For more lessons on highway accidents with DAP we go southwest from Bentong past a stretch of road which was hotly fought over by communist forces during the Malayan Emergency, along the infamous “haunted highway” (the KL–Karak Expressway) which forms the next leg of the E8, and over the mountains to Selangor. As mentioned Selangor DAP is supposed to announce its candidates at a fundraising dinner tomorrow, but a few big names were dropped a few hours ago slightly ahead of schedule.

The E8, running parallel with Federal Route 2, joins the Klang Valley running north of Kuala Lumpur and links up with the north end of the Damansara–Puchong Expressway aka the LDP. The LDP forms basically the entire eastern boundary of Damansara, which Tony Pua was gerrymandered into from his base in Petaling Jaya to the south and where he set the record for largest raw vote margin in Malaysian history last election. Tony has of course been visible internationally for publicizing the 1MDB business, but for various similar reasons he became associated with the “elite faction” in DAP that places a greater emphasis on liberal values thanks to being educated abroad (Tony for instance has an Oxford PPE) which has come into conflict with the “Chinese-educated” faction that is rather more chauvinistic about protecting the “Chinese way of life”. The latter faction has been ascendant recently and was responsible for knocking Tony out of DAP’s central executive committee in March.

So Tony has announced he will take a break. Karpal’s son Gobind Singh Deo is coming up the LDP to fill Damansara, which vacates his Puchong seat; that in turn will be filled by former energy and science minister Yeo Bee Yin, returning home up the North–South Expressway after spending a term in Johor as the Bakri MP (she was formerly a state assemblywoman for Damansara Utama which now falls within the Damansara seat). If she does come up the highway itself like millions of other Malaysians do regularly, she will pass by Bangi where her fellow Johor transplant Syahredzan Johan (political secretary for Kit Siang) will be contesting to replace Ong Kian Ming. Ong, like Tony, also falls within the liberal faction and also lost a seat on the central executive committee in March and announced his “stepping aside” after that result despite his stellar constituency work.

This is also relevant in the terminus of Federal Route 2 in Klang. Those approaching from directly east, say from Puchong or Bangi, often remark on how the potholes vanish as soon as you get into the Klang area, and that is at least partially attributable to even more stellar constituency work by Charles Santiago, who worked the ground hard to flip this seat in 2008 and never stopped. There are a lot of articles testifying to the exact details. The Indian associations love him. So do the Chinese associations. So do the Malay ones, so do the NGOs, so do the port workers and the shopkeepers and literally anyone who can be grabbed off the street to be interviewed by the sound of it. At any rate he has grown his vote margin steadily since then. All this has apparently been put out to counter the rumors that have been swirling for months about him being replaced for no clear reason, and apparently it didn’t work; Kota Kemuning assemblyman Veraman Ganabatirau will be running instead. So every pothole in the past twenty-four hours, and every difficulty that results from all of this, will be of DAP’s own making. Gun, meet foot. Et cetera. At the very least it does not inspire confidence, at all.

On a personal note those most up in arms, and talking about defecting away from voting for Ganabatirau, include two friends of mine who despite their deep support for Santiago’s advocacy are… card-carrying members of PSM. Everything in Malaysian politics comes full circle even when you don’t want it to.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I was talking with my Chinese Malaysian friend about the upcoming election, he was pretty discouraged and honestly said he wasn't gonna vote this time around despite being back home given his disappointment with the last PH goverment. He's from Penang and his counstiuency Jelutong is Uber safe DAP but I think his opinion is pretty widespread and bodes ill for the oppostion.

[Joseph Cao]

Couple of quick updates.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/malaysia-najib-razak-jail-corruption-1mdb-umno-ge15-election-jail-prison-election-candidate-3005741

"Jailed former PM Najib among UMNO nominees for Pekan seat contest in upcoming election: Reports"

UMNO will either run Najib if he can get a royal pardon or run one of his children if he could not.

The Pekan chapter clarified yesterday that they submitted that list before Najib went to jail… which is odd in itself but not inconsistent with certain factions of UMNO prepping for an early GE from Johor elections onward. And none of his children are on the list. Maybe if Pekan UMNO submits a new list?

For the record Najib is completely disqualified from nomination or election as an MP, that took effect immediately based on Article 48(5) from the moment of conviction. Whether he gets a pardon only has effect on whether he can remain as an MP now, but we're here in this thread because parliament has been dissolved and that has become a moot point.

The High Court rules as literally everyone with common sense expected and denies Najib the "privilege of returning to Parliament". The case really is as open and shut as can possibly be.

Young Syefura comments on the Bentong imbroglio and says she "somewhat expected that this would happen" which is definitely grounds for the split coming from Wong Tack's end, she wouldn't be privy to whatever reasons the DAP committee had for dropping him but if it came the other way that would have been apparent locally.

Charles Santiago is obviously aware of the dieharders I mentioned in the previous post and has a statement out pleading with his voters in Klang to swing behind Ganabatirau. Whatever fire he feels the need to put out it all seems quite squarely on DAP leaders' hands here.

There was a little bit I missed previously although I did allude to the Bandar Tun Razak seat, of which talk on the ground is Wan Azizah coming in to contest against the PKR defector. Makes sense strategically – Rafizi coming back to Pandan means Wan Azizah must go somewhere else, and she's enough of a party heavyweight to counter the fear of further defections in that seat. Supposedly this is part of a request from Anwar's family to contest against "traitors" which is why everyone is now glancing at Nurul Izzah Anwar and the rumors of her contesting in Ampang against PBM president and Chief Frog Zuraida Kamaruddin. This would leave Permatang Pauh to be contested by someone other than a member of Anwar's family for the first time in about forty years.

Speaking of PBM, Larry Sng (who at last report was still claiming he is PBM's president) confirms that BN has rejected PBM's application to enter the coalition and so they will be going it alone. Ideally this means all the frogs in that party get wiped out.

[Joseph Cao]

Oh, and before I go I have been informed of the existence of a really very useful candidates spreadsheet from our Reddit colleagues, which should be getting a whole lot of updates shortly. Highlights include the yellow highlight for every yellow-bellied MP who changed allegiance this past parliament on the second sheet. (Tony Pua for some reason has been highlighted on the third sheet.)

That in particular should help with recontextualizing the voting stats from https://undi.info/, since that site still has results for the past four general elections under the original party banners.

And as before, the best electoral map currently available is by the heroic folks at Tindak Malaysia (great work ethic too), site https://www.tindakmalaysia.org/online-electoral-maps-of-malaysia.

Also from Reddit, someone thoughtfully put together a database for constituency results going back to 1959: https://datastudio.google.com/reporting/e99ce104-2b22-4dff-ae77-3275fda3cd49/page/2Dk5C

The stats for early elections are incomplete or a bit janky but otherwise this is another excellent and visualizable resource if anyone's interested. And you can do a Solid and combine results from random states!

[Joseph Cao]

Candidates are steadily rolling out on the PH side, seat allocations on the BN side. Note candidates for BN and seat allocations for PH seem to be rather more rocky.

The biggest batch was PKR’s candidate announcements for most of the Peninsular seats a few days ago, which everyone has been covering as a huge purge because focusing on the dropped MPs is always juicy. For the record I fully believe Rafizi might have taken the opportunity to price in the loyalties of people like Sivarasa in Sungai Buloh or Maria Chin in Petaling Jaya, they have both been unafraid to speak their mind in the past. But it’s also more or less in proportion with the reshuffle that PKR conducted last election, which nobody really treated as a big deal.

The soundbite everyone has been quoting from Tian Chua, who also did not get selected, is less about internal political purging or the "promote new faces" excuse from Anwar and more about the perceived inability of PKR to value grassroots voter operations in places like Hulu Selangor where Dr Sathia Prakash Nadarajan, a big gun active in Rawang just over the seat border, has been substituted in for the grassroots-oriented June Leow. I have a passing familiarity with the seat; the PH vote is hugely scattered and the closest they get to a conventional vote distribution in that seat is in small towns like Batang Kali and Kuala Kubu Baharu with aging and largely minority-based that really need an effective grassroots presence. Which is an entirely valid concern given the recently observed tendency for PKR’s voter ops to fall flat on their faces.

The reasons for the drops are quite obviously a grab bag. Tan Yee Kew in Wangsa Maju is kind of subpar as a parliamentarian, Lee Boon Chye in Gopeng has health issues, Tian Chua has a scheming side that was the primary reason Prabakaran got into the seat in the first place. Always some way for the Narrative™ to fall flat on its face.

The first-time “academia and professional class” candidates that Anwar made a big deal about last week might also need a word. Nik Omar, the son of PAS giant Nik Aziz Nik Mat and brother of current MP Nik Abduh, is going to Pasir Salak against noted UMNO sexist and train understander Tajuddin; scientist and PWD advocate Dr. Noraishah Mydin (who is already drawing attention for having only been in PKR for two weeks) is going to Putrajaya against UMNO supremo and pocket money man Tengku Adnan; former Malaysian Youth Council president Jufitri Joha is going to Rembau against Tok Mat; et cetera. You may be able to see a pattern here: zero of the touted candidates are going to win. Maybe one if all the dominoes fall the right way. Very hard to see what the point of this is except to get good media press, and even that is already looking shaky as with Noraishah above.

DAP’s rollout is continuing. We now have Penang, Perak, and Johor; the big news is Penang’s chief minister Chow coming into Batu Kawan apparently as the compromise option after whatever internal tussle went on behind the scenes, which leaves Lim Guan Eng’s sister Lim Hui Ying (currently a Senator) to contest Tanjong. Bukit Bendera MP Wong Hon Wai is trading places with Seri Delima assemblywoman Syerleena Abdul Rashid, which obviously means Wong is showing up in state government later on; Syerleena being given a safe seat at least means the party will hold serve in its number of Malay MPs no matter what happens in Pahang. Perak DAP is mostly trying to clean house (which given they had nutcases like loudmouth rapist Paul Yong is objectively very good) and to that wider end a few incumbents are stepping down and others are being reshuffled, including Ipoh Timur MP and state DAP secretary Wong Kah Woh. This creates an opening for youth chief Howard Lee who will not be contesting in Gerik after all; that is going to a first-time Malay candidate instead. There’s a small mixup with Amanah about who exactly is contesting the Changkat Jong state seat but that seems to have been resolved in favor of DAP after an intervention by Anwar. Johor DAP head honcho Liew Chin Tong is being put forward to replace Lim Kit Siang in Iskandar Puteri; serial critic Dr. Boo Cheng Hau, who seems to especially hate Liew’s guts, is not happy about this given all the hard work he expended on getting his name into circulation in the media as a prospective candidate.

Amanah is primarily holding defence. There have been some little incidents over the seat allocations involving them, including over a state seat in Kedah allocated to DAP (there it is again) which has resulted in the state chairman resigning as of yesterday after he threatened to boycott DAP’s contests in retaliation, but aside from those their incumbents are clearly their best options to keep from being wiped out. Three MPs have been dropped however: Hanipa in Sepang, for the previously discussed health reasons, and Hassan Bahrom and Mohd Anuar in the incredibly marginal Tampin and Temerloh. As alluded to in the Titiwangsa post they are also looking to expand into previously PPBM-contested seats which will be good to see, although they are unlikely to get actual MPs out of the arrangement. Sad news for people like Nik Faizah Nik Othman, who started the white flag movement last year and is running in a super-PAS seat.

Muda has officially announced three seats, with more to come; one is likely to step on DAP’s toes since Selangor state assembly speaker Ng Suee Lim has been on the ground doing circuits in preparation for mounting a challenge to BN’s state chairman and last remaining Selangor MP Noh Omar. This has obviously always been a suicide mission but there is still some grumbling from the DAP grassroots (there’s that word again) about Muda swooping in. As a matter of fact the Muda candidate is none other than Siti Rahayu Baharin who I’ve mentioned previously in connection with the Titiwangsa seat, so that seat is presumably going to Amanah which will be one less headache for them. Muda co-founder Lim Wei Jiet (who contested and lost in the Johor state elections but got pretty good swings for a Chinese candidate in an ultra-Malay seat) will be going up against MCA large ham Wee Jeck Seng in Tanjung Piai. Syed Saddiq may or may not defend Muar to focus on that old trick from BN, the trumped-up graft trial, which would certainly increase Muda’s dependence on PH. Apparently he’ll make a decision on Wednesday after the Muda people do the official ceremony thing on Tuesday.

PSM is angry. Very angry. Angry enough to call the electoral pact off since according to them PH refused to give them any seats, despite multiple PH leaders indicating at least three seats were in the works; Michael Jeyakumar wants Sungai Siput very badly however and (as I called earlier!) that became a point of contention.

Various Sarawak parties are dumping to the media about going all out against Sarawak DAP, including in Miri (Michael Teo) and Sibu (Oscar Ling). We’ll see what happens. The state DAP has been on the ropes before and bounced back. Chief Minister Abang Johari apparently has been speaking approvingly of the Sheraton Move. Maybe the state DAP can remind voters that his Sarawak First soundbites haven’t actually translated into political stability for Malaysia or economic stability for Sarawak.

PBM is collapsing so badly it’s funny; Larry Sng clearly reads this thread since he abruptly decided to “suspend” Zuraida and a bunch of her allies in his “authority” as “party president”, something the Registrar of Societies is apparently taking his side on. Hi, Larry! Go take a long walk off the Julau pier.

BN is doing BN things and they will be announcing all their candidates at once on November 2 as per party policy.

[Joseph Cao]

I know this place loves polls so here's one from the Merdeka Centre conducted last month. I would link the Straits Times but it's paywalled.

63 per cent of poll participants felt that the country was heading in the wrong direction, an increase from 43 per cent in a September 2021 poll.

This was also higher than the negative public sentiment ahead of GE14, which stood at 54 per cent in April 2018.

"Ibrahim added that approval ratings of the current government (BN and Perikatan Nasional (PN) had fallen to a low of 26 per cent in July 2022, before rising to 38 per cent in September 2022.

"This is lower compared to the 39 per cent approval rating in April 2018, before BN headed to the GE14 polls, due to inflation and recessionary concerns, as well as a lack of confidence in the government."

It added that approval ratings for non-economic indicators had shown mixed results, with pollsters approving the handling of Covid-19 (77 per cent approval rating) and helping those in need (56 per cent approval rating).

"However, there remained concerns over the country's governance (upholding the rule of law and fighting corruption) and managing of the economy," said the firm.

Good trendline for BN? No PH approval number? Not hard to work out the bottom line on that.

[Joseph Cao]

The BN and PN conventions just concluded. Beyond the incredibly painful experience that watching either of them entails, for some reason they decided to hold the candidate announcements at the same time as each other and so I am relying on an incredibly staticky AstroAwani video for the Perikatan convention while BN gets a nice clear stream from multiple more online-savvy news outlets. Therein lies a parable for our times.

Broad trend for BN is 1) fielding the strongest possible candidates in marginals and 2) being incredibly ruthless about dropping certain candidates aligned with Ismail Sabri, including warm water man Adham Baba and the patently embarrassing Zahidi Zainul Abidin. This would be the candidate "trouble" I mentioned in the previous post. Of course it just so happens that many other “underperforming” ministers remain candidates but being aligned with Zahid does tend to give one a level of immunity. Goes a long way towards explaining the sacking of Annuar Musa and those who were vocal about working with PAS, which of course is now persona non grata in UMNO circles. This may have something or nothing to do with that story about BN candidates being told to pledge support for Zahid as prime minister. Zahid claims they’re lies so it’s almost certainly true.

Regardless, this incredible ruthlessness is the number one reason for BN being poised to win. MCA in particular is letting loose all its big guns for the charge in Pahang and there are at least three PH seats that probably will fall at this point thanks to them. Ditto the vulnerables in Johor, the MIC charge in Perak, and what appears to be an “old BN” plus “new BN” full-court press in Selangor: health minister Khairy parachuting into Sungai Buloh*, finance minister Tengku Zafrul going up against Amanah’s Dzulkefly in Kuala Selangor as widely rumored, and dredging red shirt mafia leader Jamal Yunos back up to contest his old rice bowl stomping grounds against a Bersatu man in Sungai Besar. The supposed BN state leader Noh Omar has been left up in the air (his seat of Tanjong Karang conspicuously wasn't announced) and now that multiple UMNO big guns are leapfrogging into his backyard it’s not likely that he will be let back in from the cold. Obviously there will be lots of sour grapes left in the wake of the Zahid steamroller – the problem is they’re all happening in places like Perlis and the FELDA belts and northwestern Selangor where no other party has a chance. So the electoral impact will be nil. The entirety of Arau UMNO could fall into a coma and BN would still win there.

[*Against a PKR candidate who used to serve as MIC’s treasurer and therefore is leaving the grassroots very cold, because for some reason PKR decided now was a good time to drop Sivarasa, who whatever his other faults is incredibly good at pressing the flesh.]

(A word about MIC – there’s late-breaking news that they’re disappointed with the allocations they got and are planning what to do next, which they specifically skipped the BN convention to do; I thought it was strange at the time that they were absent. Who knows what is unfolding right now.)

PN is doing what it can. Sort of. PAS is still talking a big game about going all over the country like they did last election. Doubtful they’ll do much better than they did now that they’re working with PPBM which has one foot in the grave and Gerakan which has one foot out of it – plus running tons of new faces can only get you so far when Hadi insists on keeping the spotlight on himself. PPBM is trying to keep its MPs in the hunt and push all its former ministers into contesting, including those outside of Parliament originally, but unlike with BN the strategic choices of Rina in Sepang or Radzi Jidin in Putrajaya or Afif Bahardin in the black hole of Shah Alam or a vanity businessman candidate in Pulai of all places or Saifuddin and others staying put in seats that will almost certainly go BN are… really not great. Experts rarely get the “big picture” predictions correct in Malaysian politics but their talk of a PN near-wipeout just grew more plausible.

Also WARISAN is looking to make a splash in Peninsular Malaysia – over the past couple of days it announced a couple dozen wash-up candidates from a gaggle of parties including MCA, PKR, DAP, and UMNO. Probably will not be of much greater interest than a list of random BN assemblymen or chapter chiefs would be, which is why I haven’t written about either of those, but one of their candidates is former star blogger Jeff Ooi. Now there’s a name I haven’t heard in a long time, etc.

[Joseph Cao]

I mentioned the reason BN is poised to win – what will pretty much 100% put them over the top is another part of the Merdeka Centre poll which wasn't reported on earlier showing that PH is pulling only 10.2% of the Malay vote and very high undecided numbers in the minority vote:



This after they got a high-20s % of Malays, around 95% of Chinese, and 86% of Indians in the last election. Even with the influx of young voters basically all the PH margin from last election has been eaten into by BN/PN and undecideds. Will be impossible for PH to make up the Malay vote deficit given that voter apathy has hit the Chinese and Indian vote especially hard.

[jaichind]

I have to assume that BN can afford to be ruthless in dropping incumbents because of the perception that BN will win and that BN rebels will lose out on being on the winning team.  It is the other fronts that have to be careful about dropping incumbents.

[jaichind]

It seems the old BN Chinese vote (MCA) is coming back.  MCA had a near-death experience in 2018.  It seems it is on the way to being back as a viable party.

[Joseph Cao]

Merdeka Centre has dropped their big pre-election poll (link). Shows pretty much what is expected, PH unable to get over the hump with Malays and Zahid's extreme unpopularity not being a drag on BN.







The report has the full gory details of course, but that Indian sample… let's just say it gives me pause.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It seems the old BN Chinese vote (MCA) is coming back.  MCA had a near-death experience in 2018.  It seems it is on the way to being back as a viable party.

I seriously doubt it's any more than a dead-cat bounce.

[Joseph Cao]

I got about halfway through writing up the recent news out of Perlis before wondering why I was wasting minutes of my life writing about that state remembering that it's just one state and that most of it will be resolved one way or the other by nomination day tomorrow when we learn who all the candidates are.

Anyway, I don't know if jaichind is doing his model again but I fully intend to try my hand at giving a seat count eventually and I also want to provide some sort of qualitative overview of each seat. There's thirteen days from nomination day to election eve. Since everything on the candidate side will be largely settled after tomorrow, I'm going to try and preview one or two states' worth of seats per day which should take us right up to Election Day, and if there are campaign updates that directly affect a specific seat I'll talk about those too. Should provide enough background information for the two of you following along when votes are counted on the 19th.

It seems the old BN Chinese vote (MCA) is coming back.  MCA had a near-death experience in 2018.  It seems it is on the way to being back as a viable party.

Depending on what you mean by "viable". They're not exactly competitive in more than about a dozen seats but fielding party leaders in the places where they have realistic chances can compensate for that, short of a wave like GE14. This seems a rather worse position than parties like Amanah.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I really do think it's a matter of generational replacement, young malasiyan Chinese have next to no connection to the issues that MCA championed in the past and look at them as little more then opportunistic UMNO collaborators. The MCA has done almost nothing to change that perception of themselves.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is there any chance for MCA to claw back the ground it has lost?

[Joseph Cao]

Is there any chance for MCA to claw back the ground it has lost?

I'm going to dive into that a bit more in the next two weeks with the seat-by-seat thing but there are plenty of opportunities for that. Like I said, the electoral strategy of maximizing heavyweights' chances in a few specific seats can mask their overall lack of widespread support.

[Logical]

MCA was not very effective at delivering pork and contracts even at the peak of their influence. They aren't going to start getting better at it now.

[jaichind]

It is very unlikely I will try to map out seat by seat this election.  I did so in 2018 on the premise that there was a chance PH could win.  The results this time are clear ahead of time which takes the fun out of it.  Furthermore, the PPBM split with MUDA and PEJUANG makes it impossible to come up with a model on how the vote will split this time.

[jaichind]

I think PH and MUDA formed an alliance in Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah where MUDA will run in 5 and 1 seat respectively.  There does not seem to be a PH-MUDA alliance in Sarawak.

I really think PH should have formed a tactical alliance with PEJUANG in Kedah where PH will step aside from the few winnable seats for PEJUANG in Kedah in return for PEJUANG stepping side in a few marginal PH seats.  Looks like egos on both sides is preventing this obvious move.
 

[Novelty]

I really think PH should have formed a tactical alliance with PEJUANG in Kedah where PH will step aside from the few winnable seats for PEJUANG in Kedah in return for PEJUANG stepping side in a few marginal PH seats.  Looks like egos on both sides is preventing this obvious move.

If PH did that, BN will tear PH to shreds in the marginals because PH has shown that they are willing to work with 'the old man'.  PH was in a lose-lose situation there anyways.  By running against GTA, at least they have a (very slim) chance of picking off some of those seats.

[jaichind]

I really think PH should have formed a tactical alliance with PEJUANG in Kedah where PH will step aside from the few winnable seats for PEJUANG in Kedah in return for PEJUANG stepping side in a few marginal PH seats.  Looks like egos on both sides is preventing this obvious move.

If PH did that, BN will tear PH to shreds in the marginals because PH has shown that they are willing to work with 'the old man'.  PH was in a lose-lose situation there anyways.  By running against GTA, at least they have a (very slim) chance of picking off some of those seats.

That is a good point on the risks. I always thought of my idea as not an explicit alliance but just not running candidates these without endorcing each other to mitigate this very clear risk.

[jaichind]

In Sabah, it seems the BN and PN alliance is perfect with no overlapping candidates.  With WARISAN and PH running separately it seems we are set for a BN-PN sweep outside of a few Chinese seats.

[Joseph Cao]

Okay, housekeeping post before the previews begin.

Seat calls are not as authoritative as they sound – so for example one seat may be flagged as flipping and another as a hold to make up for both being moderately vulnerable, since most seats tend to break the same way in a parliamentary system.

"Districts" refer to the administrative districts in each state which largely determine seats in most of the country, so I won't elaborate on them too much.

I will be using the abbreviations throughout when referring to the coalition that holds each seat and the parties that field each candidate, so here's a refresher of the component parties in each coalition:

Barisan Nasional (BN), led by PM Ismail Sabri: United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC), and United Sabah People's Party (PBRS)

Pakatan Harapan (PH), led by opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim: People's Justice Party (PKR), Democratic Action Party (DAP), National Trust Party (AMANAH), and United Progressive Kinabalu Organisation (UPKO) + electoral pact with Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (MUDA) who will be counted under PH for housekeeping purposes

Perikatan Nasional (PN), led by former PM Muhyiddin Yassin: Malaysian United Indigenous Party (PPBM), Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS), Homeland Solidarity Party (STAR), Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP), and Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia (GERAKAN)

Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), led by Sarawak Premier Abang Johari: United Bumiputera Heritage Party (PBB), Sarawak Peoples' Party (PRS), Progressive Democratic Party (PDP), Sarawak United Peoples' Party (SUPP)

United Sarawak Party (PSB), led by Sarawak opposition leader Wong Soon Koh

Gagasan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), led by Sabah chief minister Hajiji Mohd Noor: Malaysian United Indigenous Party, Sabah Branch (PPBM Sabah), United Sabah Party (PBS), Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP), Homeland Solidarity Party (STAR), and United Sabah National Organisation (USNO)

Heritage Party (WARISAN), led by Sabah opposition leader Shafie Apdal

Homeland Movement (GTA), led by idek any more Mahathir Mohamad: Homeland Fighters' Party (PEJUANG), Mighty Bumiputera Party (PUTRA), Pan-Malaysian Islamic Front (BERJASA), and National Indian–Muslim Alliance (IMAN)

Malaysian People's Party (PBM), led by Frog-in-Chief Zuraida Kamaruddin Larry Sng Zuraida Kamaruddin

[Joseph Cao]

Perlis

P001 Padang Besar: Constituency created in 1995 splitting off the northern half of the Kangar seat. Runs south and east of the Thailand border crossing and takes in many of the kampungs that lie under the Kangar Municipal Council. Historically most of the industry aside from the farms has centred around handling what comes over the border and dealing with periodic waves of smuggling. The BN candidate had won with very consistent vote shares of around 60% until 2018 when they crashed to 41% and a four-point margin against strong PH and PAS challenges.
Two-term UMNO incumbent and deputy minister Zahidi Zainul Abidin was dropped by the selection committee but is contesting as an independent against a parachuted BN replacement, former Puteri UMNO leader Zahida Zarik Khan, and no-hopers from AMANAH, WARISAN, and PAS. UMNO is famously extremely strong here, with strangleholds on every state seat even competing against PAS. Zahidi may have roots in the local UMNO machinery stretching back to before the seat was created but the machine will run without him. BN hold

P002 Kangar: The remainder of the Kangar seat comprises Kangar city center, the port of Kuala Perlis, and an arm north to the only patch of forest in the state. Some small history of tin mining and commerce means the state capital and this seat by extension is a bit more Chinese than the other Perlis seats which no doubt contributed to BN's first electoral loss in Perlis since independence when PKR took the open seat.
Incumbent Noor Amin Ahmad still needs to defend this marginal against UMNO exco member/Salafist preacher/director of several corporate boards Fathul Bari as well as candidates from PPBM, WARISAN, and PEJUANG. His base lies in the basically all-Malay Kuala Perlis so any path for him must depend on juicing turnout there and in the city itself, which looks unlikely to happen with the Malay spoilers and Chinese apathy. BN gain from PH

P003 Arau: With very minor modifications, since 1974 this has been based in the royal capital of Arau and comprises the other kampungs along the entire border with Kedah with a notable cluster of state universities at the eastern end.
Federal Territories Minister Shahidan Kassim has moved within this seat since the 1980s, first as an MP then serving as the state's chief minister then as an MP again since 2013; in between the seat was held by his brother Ismail among others. He is controversial for various reasons including longrunning (mis)management of several sports associations and molestation of a teenage girl a couple of years ago. He is also PAS-friendly and for that reason was dropped last week and replaced with fellow sports management enthusiast and corporate manager Rozabil Abdul Rahman. So Shahidan has hopped over to PAS and is contesting under their banner against UMNO's Rozabil and PhD student Fathin Amelina of PKR. Ultimately this will be BN's to lose but Shahidan is far more personally entrenched than Rozabil and could make the margin interesting. BN hold


Kedah

P004 Langkawi: Internationally famous island tourist destination, largely thanks to Mahathir's development of it as Prime Minister in the 80s. Has voted solidly BN for that reason and also broke hard for Mahathir last election for that reason.
Mahathir needs no introduction obviously. This time round he is defending the seat as the PEJUANG candidate and leader of the Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA) or Homeland Fighters coalition, comprising PEJUANG and three other niche Malay-centric or Muslim-centric parties. A deeply unserious outfit. Still Mahathir's legacy in Langkawi probably outweighs him covering himself in glory with the past few years' antics – emphasis on probably. Should be a narrow win for him against UMNO's Armishah Siraj, PKR's Zabidi Yahya, PPBM's Suhaimi Abdullah, and an independent, who as far as I can tell are all newbie candidates, but there is always the possibility of BN taking a huge scalp. GTA hold

P005 Jerlun: The seat used to be Langkawi–Jerlun; this is what's left after Langkawi was split off to its own seat in 1995, centred around the fishing town of Ayer Hitam (not to be confused with other identically named towns to appear later on) and kampungs further north and east that rely mainly on rice and rubber farming.
It has historically bounced back and forth between current incumbent and Mahathir son Mukhriz Mahathir, various UMNO candidates, and various PAS candidates. In point of fact Mukhriz is now up against both the men he defeated for this seat in 2018, UMNO Senator and state party deputy Othman Aziz and PAS former Ayer Hitam assemblyman Abdul Ghani Ahmad, as well as PKR newbie Mohamed Fadzil. Any of the first three could win. I do not feel comfortable making a specific call here but absent other information, although Mukhriz could certainly pull it out, a tip to BN is the most realistic. BN gain from GTA

P006 Kubang Pasu: Mahathir's old seat from his days as PM, this seat covers the remainder of Kubang Pasu District stretching down along Federal Route 1 from the checkpoint at the Thai border to the administrative centre of Jitra and various universities in between. Most of the seat's industry has grown around the three institutions mentioned here: the highway, the universities, and Mahathir. Mukhriz's actual state seat is in Jitra and provides a base for Mahathir-related activities.
GTA sec-gen Amiruddin Hamzah will be defending against UMNO Youth divisional leader Hasmuni Hassan, PKR's state communications director Aizuddin Ariffin, and PPBM's Ku Abdul Rahman Ku Ismail, a former UMNO assemblyman for a seat far outside this constituency who defected to PPBM in December 2018. Note that exactly one of those challengers has experience with grassroots mobilization within the seat and Amiruddin is not exactly entrenched here; his base is in his state seat of Anak Bukit which lies just outside this seat. Given the urban base I do however expect this to be close. BN gain from GTA

P007 Padang Terap: Covers the entirety of the rural northern Padang Terap District with not a whole lot in it, although the man-made lake Tasik Pedu pops up every so often as a tourist destination of questionably ecotouristic nature. It historically swung between PAS and UMNO but has stopped doing so for a couple of reasons.
Since winning in 2013 rural development minister, former chief minister, and UMNO vice-president Madzhir Khalid has made the most of his position by showering constituents with rewards. The seat being as rural as it is of course hobbles the AMANAH challenger a great deal. The recent party disunity in the local PPBM chapter will also hobble the PAS challenger, and the PEJUANG challenger is hobbled by nobody knowing who he is. BN hold

P008 Pokok Sena: One of those hybrid seats created in 1995 and basically unchanged since, this covers the Pokok Sena District in the east and stretches west into Alor Setar neighborhoods through the town of Langgar where Tunku Abdul Rahman and other state worthies are laid to rest. This links marginal PAS territory to prime DAP territory and adds up to a marginal PH seat where PAS came second in the last election.
Incumbent Mahfuz Omar, the state PH chairman, owes his original win here in 1999 to PAS and has served since with only one interruption in 2004, though of course he has since bolted for AMANAH. PAS is now putting up a fairly strong challenge from their only Senator in the state, Ahmad Saad Yahaya, and UMNO and WARISAN randos have also made an appearance. If the Kedah AMANAH debacle (sacked chairman Phahrolrazi Zawawi represents much of the adjacent territory to the south) is felt anywhere in the state, it'll be here. Both are good candidates but one side has headwinds and the other has tailwinds. I expect PAS to pick this one up. PN gain from PH

P009 Alor Setar: The royal city of Alor Setar, of long and historic memory, plus a tail to the south that was designed by the Electoral Commission to keep DAP and PAS votes together before the falling-out between them. The opposition has held this seat consistently for obvious reasons.
One-term incumbent Chan Ming Kai is not contesting; he was shuffled around from his native Perak to Perlis to this seat over the years. Defending for PKR is assemblyman Simon Ooi who represents a seat further south near the Penang border. There are a lot of challengers here: MCA businessman Tan Chee Hiong, former UMNO exco and current WARISAN state chairman Fadzil Hanafi, Mahathir's great-nephew Mohamad Nuhairi Rahmat, PAS Youth deputy Afnan Hamimi, and two independents. This is an intermediately safe seat for PH but a big enough wave probably would put MCA over the top. PH hold

P010 Kuala Kedah: Running up and down the coast and some way inland from the port town of Kuala Kedah which traces its history back to the 16th century, this seat covers the highway approaches into Alor Setar and therefore is mostly developmentally tied to it.
The same holds politically – this was one of the 2008 flips to the opposition and BN have not come especially close to recovering it since then. With the bases of fairly prominent PH and GTA local movers in this seat there shouldn't be too much of a problem for PKR's two-term incumbent Azman Ismail against WARISAN, PEJUANG, and PAS opponents, and former UMNO senator and former MP for Baling Mash**tah Ibrahim, unless the bottom is really falling out for PH. PH hold

P011 Pendang: Covers the entirety of the farming-focused Pendang District, bordered to the west by the North-South Expressway. There's very little else here now, although it used to be an elephant breeding ground and Mahathir's original political base, but I repeat myself. UMNO and PAS have traded the seat back and forth.
First-term PAS incumbent and minor deputy minister Awang Hashim will face off against UMNO assemblywoman Suraya Yaacob, social activist Abdul Rashid Yub for PEJUANG, and local PKR leader Zulkifli Mohamad and, if history is any indication, probably win, although an UMNO win can't be counted out. PN hold

P012 Jerai: Covers the Yan District along the coast, which is full of the kind of old Malay vote you'd expect, and adds an arm into the town of Gurun which provides the PH base in the seat. In GE14 the vote share split more or less evenly between PAS, BN, and PH, mirroring the state seat breakdown of one seat for each coalition.
Since 2008 it has been an ultra-marginal and the relatively anonymous incumbent Sabri Azit of PAS is being strongly challenged by his predecessor, UMNO's Jamil Khir Baharom. Kedah DAP vice-chair Zulhasmi Shariff and economic think-tank member Mohd Nizam Mahshar of PEJUANG round out the ballot, and although a Malay DAP candidate is a rarity it's hard to see Zulhasmi outrunning the label enough to match the 1/3 vote share that PH got in GE14 or be much of a roadblock to Jamil regaining the seat. BN gain from PN

P013 Sik: Sik (apparently a corruption of "sheikh") stretches down from the swathes of nothing by the Thai border through the mountains where the Muda River rises and eventually forms its western boundary. BN shot themselves in the foot by removing the one urban corner of the seat during the 1995 redelineation; PAS gained it quickly and it is now safe for them, with chief minister Muhammad Sanusi's state seat in the rubber plantations of the southern part of the seat. Nominative determinism at its finest.
This will be a walkover for PAS's Ahmad Tarmizi against local Wanita UMNO leader Maizatul Akmam Othman and retired MACC senior officer Lathifah Mohd Yatim, who depsite both being women and impressive candidates are unlikely to make much of a dent in the rurals. PN hold

P014 Merbok: Curves from Merbok town at the mouth of the eponymous river past the Kedah campus of UiTM and the northern part of Sungai Petani to the Indian-heavy industry town of Bukit Selambau. Being an orbital seat with multiple urban centres gives the opposition a high floor, although the vote share of one-term PKR incumbent Nor Azrina Surip @ Nurin Aina actually dropped from 2013 (when she lost) to 2018 (when she won) thanks to the PAS vote.
Nor Azrina will be facing off against state UMNO comms director Shaiful Hazizy, second-time PPBM candidate Mohd Nazri Abu Hassan (last seen losing to his now-fellow coalition partner Sanusi), IMAN leader Mohd Mosin Abdul Razak, and WARISAN entrepeneur Khairul Anuar Ahmad. Given all those potential spoilers for the rural Malay vote I feel more bullish on this – but it could still fall very easily on a good night for BN. PH hold

P015 Sungai Petani: The largest city in Kedah anchors a seat that stretches into built-up areas to the west of the city center and through the fields between the Merbok and Muda rivers to the coast. Industry is as varied as you'd expect. State opposition leader Johari Abdul flipped this in the 2008 wave and like many others of his class has made it into a stronghold.
He's now giving way for his son, state PKR Youth chief and medical doctor Taufiq Johari, who will defend it against UMNO local division chief Shahanim Yusof, PPBM (formerly PKR) assemblyman and state exco member Robert Ling, PEJUANG heavyweight senator Marzuki Yahya, and a rando from Parti Rakyat Malaysia, the Japanese holdout of Malaysian socialist parties. Given the local stature of the challengers the most interesting thing is probably the race for second place. PH hold

P016 Baling: The last of the eastern Kedah constituencies in districts so small that the two are coterminous. Baling town is small to match and derives most of its industry from tourism around the nearby mountains; it derives its name from a local legend about a king who grew fangs from drinking his subjects' blood and was eventually run out by his subjects, with the town supposedly marking the spot where he twisted out his fangs and threw them away. In unrelated developments this was also the place where talks between Chin Peng, David Marshall, and Tunku Abdul Rahman failed to end the Malayan Emergency. In other unrelated developments this has historically been a semi-safe seat for UMNO that only fell to the opposition during wave elections, although PAS currently holds all the state seats under it.
The absurdly corrupt two-term UMNO incumbent Abdul Azeez Abdul Rahim, also a walking reminder of the prevalence of black-on-black violence in Parliament, got run within a percentage point last election by PAS's Hassan Saad who is back for round two. Despite running third last time AMANAH is back again, this time fielding local teacher Johari Abdullah, and lieutenant-colonel Bashir Abdul Rahman rounds out the ballot for PUTRA. Expect the incumbent to return and continue being racist to his fellow MPs. BN hold

P017 Padang Serai: Covering the northern half of Kulim District directly to the east of Penang is another of the agricultural and kampung seats (this one being a satellite area for Kulim to the south) that went straight to the opposition in 2008 and never came back. In this case PKR incumbent K. Muthusamy to his credit has worked the ground hard both before and after ascending to Parliament in 2018.
Facing off against him is a former MP, MIC vice-president C. Sivarraajh, whose election in Cameron Highlands in 2018 was annulled after vote-buying allegations; he was barred from contesting electorally for five years but that was struck down later, and he has moved here and also tried to be active on the ground as well. In the third corner is PPBM assemblyman Azman Nasrudin, another ex-PKR man, and crowded into the final corner are randos from WARISAN and PUTRA and a rando independent. I should note there were happy reports from PAS a while ago that their cooperation with UMNO would lead to the defeats of a few dozen PH MPs in seats where either party would stand aside from the other, but PPBM's insertion into this arrangement is complicating that and even a heavyweight like Sivarraajh might not overcome the PKR advantage. PH hold

P018 Kulim Bandar Baharu: A throwback to the era of double-barreled constituency names – Kulim with its burgeoning technology park on the northern edge, Bandar Baharu surviving as a rest stop on the North-South Expressway at the southern tip (and thus better connected to Penang than to its own state), and various other small settlements scattered in between.
PKR sec-gen Saifuddin Nasution won this in 2018 by a less comfortable margin than Muthusamy to the north but has the luxury of not facing any particularly distinguished candidates, the most prominent of the three UMNO, PPBM, and PEJUANG challengers being Consumer Association of Kedah president Mohamad Yusrizal Yusoff. Expect him to come back for another term. PH hold

Running tally: BN 8 (+4), PH 6 (-2), PN 3 (-), GTA 1 (-2)