Malaysia 2022 General Election Nov 19th

[jaichind]

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3195418/malaysia-pm-dissolves-parliament-paving-way-snap-election-during

"Malaysia PM dissolves parliament, paving way for snap election during monsoon season"

Moonson season will be in Nov so this election date will have to be late Oct or early Nov.   They are cutting it real close.

[jaichind]

I am on a business trip right now but will get going on figuring out the exact alliance terrain later this week when I get back.

[jaichind]

https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/Malaysia-Cuts-Resident-Individual-Tax-by-2--41970704/

"Malaysia Cuts Resident Individual Tax by 2%"

Very well timed

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I am on a business trip right now but will get going on figuring out the exact alliance terrain later this week when I get back.

Ok.
Enjoy your trip.

[jaichind]

One problem with an early general election is what to do about state legislature elections.  Historically state legislature elections are held on the same day as the general election with the exception of Sarawak.  Due to mid-term state elections, Johor Sabah and  Malacca have also decoupled from the general election.   So now the rest of the states have to decide to call their own mid-term elections.

As a whole, I think it works better for PH and PN for state legislative elections to be held at the same time as general elections while it is better for BN for them to be held separately.  Given the chaos of the last 4 years, there will be a tendency toward having a solid majority for a national bloc.  While it is not clear that BN will get a majority they are the only bloc with such prospects.  So a general election-only election will benefit BN.  Once state legislature elections are being held at the same time the national political issue will not be the only election issue that could help PH and PN.

[jaichind]

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/malaysias-mahathir-97-run-general-elections-91320556

"Malaysia's Mahathir, 97, to run in general elections"

Mahathir who before said he would not run again will indeed run.  He will be running on the GTA alliance, including his PEJUANG party (pro-Mahathir PPBM splinter) and extreme Malay nationalist Ibrahim Ali's PUTRA, PAS right-wing splinter BERJASA, and  Indian Muslim IMAN.  It seems Mahathir this time want to outflank UMNO and PAS on the Malay nationalist and Islamism flank.  I doubt it will work.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/malaysias-mahathir-97-run-general-elections-91320556

"Malaysia's Mahathir, 97, to run in general elections"

Mahathir who before said he would not run again will indeed run.  He will be running on the GTA alliance, including his PEJUANG party (pro-Mahathir PPBM splinter) and extreme Malay nationalist Ibrahim Ali's PUTRA, PAS right-wing splinter BERJASA, and  Indian Muslim IMAN.  It seems Mahathir this time want to outflank UMNO and PAS on the Malay nationalist and Islamism flank.  I doubt it will work.

Dr. M setting a new record for oldest candidate in a Malay general election. (I think)

[Joseph Cao]

Sigh.

I am on a business trip right now but will get going on figuring out the exact alliance terrain later this week when I get back.

You might have better luck cracking Linear A honestly.

Anyway. UMNO are a bunch of callous power-hungry blockheads willing to consolidate power even if it means Malaysians are deprived of flood relief and economic relief and other things at a time they need it even more than usual, news at 10.

One problem with an early general election is what to do about state legislature elections.  Historically state legislature elections are held on the same day as the general election with the exception of Sarawak.  Due to mid-term state elections, Johor Sabah and  Malacca have also decoupled from the general election.   So now the rest of the states have to decide to call their own mid-term elections.

As a whole, I think it works better for PH and PN for state legislative elections to be held at the same time as general elections while it is better for BN for them to be held separately.  Given the chaos of the last 4 years, there will be a tendency toward having a solid majority for a national bloc.  While it is not clear that BN will get a majority they are the only bloc with such prospects.  So a general election-only election will benefit BN.  Once state legislature elections are being held at the same time the national political issue will not be the only election issue that could help PH and PN.

There has been debate about this. The PH council voted last week for the states under their control, Selangor, Penang, and Negri Sembilan to not hold state elections if the national election fell during the flooding season, as it now will. So absent any electoral considerations, if they walk that back now it will also be difficult for state-level flood relief to be provided. N9 and Selangor look like they're really going to need it, not as much as the states further south but definitely something necessary to save lives.

The electoral consideration is whether the theoretical higher turnout for combined state and national elections will trump the depressed turnout due to flooding which we all know is disproportionately PH and other opposition vote in these cases. But holding them next year, or whenever, is begging for BN to swoop in for the full court press and subsequent landslide like has happened in every other off-year election so far. Essentially this election is PH's one chance to juice turnout back to survivable levels even if the voters don't see it that way.

[Joseph Cao]

The alliances stuff is all a bunch of rumor-mongering right now, anyway. There were viral stories two days ago about PH and MUDA falling out; that hasn't happened. The story today is BN and PAS doing the Mexican standoff since PAS won't abandon PPBM which has been persona non grata for UMNO for a while now. This will have exactly zero effect, probably, since the seats where they might actually face off are nearly all safe seats for either. In the seats where these things matter it looks likely to be BN against PPBM as part of the PN alliance which almost certainly means the latter gets steamrolled.

Re: Mahathir. I don't know what he thinks he's doing, and honestly being reminded again that he teamed up with Ibrahim Ali is a mark of how unserious this new outfit is. Will be genuinely surprised if they win more seats that I can count on one hand.

Incidentally in other "who will run where" news, Anwar informs us that the PH candidates running against PPBM backdoor man Azmin in Gombak and PBM (Frog Convention) leader Zuraida in Ampang will be "new faces" and not anyone alluded to in that "traitors" line he made a few weeks ago. So at least that crosses one possibility off the popular parlor game of Where in the World is Anwar Going to Run.

[jaichind]

Re: Mahathir. I don't know what he thinks he's doing, and honestly being reminded again that he teamed up with Ibrahim Ali is a mark of how unserious this new outfit is. Will be genuinely surprised if they win more seats that I can count on one hand.

I just find it funny that Mahathir can, with a straight face, have an alliance with DAP in one election and then have an alliance with Ibrahim Ali  in the next.

[omar04]

A write up by Jaichind from the 2018 GE

Some basic info of titans of Malaysia politics.

Mahathir Mohamad

Ex-PM and ex-leader of UMNO.   A medical doctor so often called Doctor M.  Joined UMNO at an early as a Malay nationalist firebrand directing his target mostly at the economically dominate Chinese community   age but fan afoul UMNO PM Abdul Rahman and was expelled.  Rejoined UMNO after the death of Abdul Rahman.  Rose to the top and became UMNO leader and PM in 1981.  Had to deal with the vertical split of UMNO led by Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah who then formed UMNO splinter S46 when his attempt to overthrow Mahathir failed.  Promoted Anwar Ibrahim as his successor but had a falling out with which led to the ouster of Anwar Ibrahim from UMNO and jailed.  Promoted Abdullah Ahmad Badawi as his successor in 2003 but had a falling out by 2005.  By 2006 was leading a movement in UMNO to try to topple Abdullah Ahmad Badawi which failed and Mahathir quit UMNO vowing not to return until Badawi is ousted. After UMNO's setback in 2008 Badawi resigned in 2009 and we replace by  Najib Razak with Mahathir's support who rejoined UMNO.  Mahathir spent the next few years promoting his son Mukhriz Mahathir to be part of the apex UMNO leadership.  After it was clear that Najib Razak would not promote Mukhriz Mahathir  to the be part of the core UMNO leadership Mahathir bolted from UMNO criticizing corruption charges which  Najib Razak were accused of.  Mahathir at age 91 then formed the UMNO Malay nationalist splinter PPBM which became part of the PH bloc.


Anwar Ibrahim

A Liberal Islamic activist that was very critical of UMNO as well as a founder of a youth Islamic organisation.  In 1982 he shocked his activist friends by accepting Mahathir's invitation to join UMNO.  With the help of Mahathir rose in ranks of UMNO until he became DPM in 1993 and clearly being groomed by Mahathir to be his successor.   By 1998 it seems Anwar was getting impatient at Mahathir not stepping aside for him to take over UMNO and the PM position.  He led a failed attempt to topple Mahathir and was expelled from UMNO.  He was then charged with sodomy and jailed.  When Abdullah took over as leader of UMNO and PM he released Anwar in 2004 which was one of the reasons why Abdullah broke with Mahathir.  Anwar proceeded to form what became PKR which was a liberal Malay party.  He then formed an alliance between PKR and the Islamic PAS and Chinese-based DAP.  Anwar then was repeating put in release from jail, all over the charges of sodomy.    While he is in jail his wife Wan Azizah Wan Ismail led PKR and help lead the anti-BN opposition bloc.  He is current in jail right now so Wan Azizah Wan Ismail is currently the leader of PKR.


Najib Razak

Current leader of UMNO, the BN alliance, and is the PM of Malaysia.  Najib is the son of the Second Malaysia PM Abdul Razak Hussein, nephew of the Third Malaysia PM Hussein Onn, protege and now enemy of Fourth Malaysia PM  Mahathir Mohamad, and was the deputy of the Fifth Malaysia PM Abdullah Ahmad Badawi before overthrowing him and is the Sixth PM of Malaysia.  He is accused of stealing billions from the sovereign wealth fund 1MDB of which he is the chairman.  It seems there was a transfer of at least $700 million from the fund to  Najib personal bank account.  Najib denies this and claims the money are gifts.   This has led to massive anti-Najib demonstrations and also provoked Mahathir to quit UMNO and call for the ouster of Najib.  


Lim Kit Siang

Long time leader of the Chinese based DAP and active in politics since the 1950s as an long time opponent of UMNO.  Jailed several times since the 1960s for opposition to UMNO. Was a firm opponent of Mahathir during his rule and as arrested in 1987 as part of the Mahathir crackdown on the opposition during the UMNO civil war.  Used as a boogeyman by UMNO and Mahathir in particular  as part of a Chinese conspiracy to take over Malaysia via proxy of parties/leaders like PKR/Anwar which  are projected to be puppets of Lim and DAP.  As a result Lim goes out of his way to make PKR/Anwar the leader of the anti-UMNO opposition bloc although could not prevent UMNO with Mahathir support in 2013 to polarize the Malay vote around UMNO as a part of stop-Lim movement to beat back the PK challenge.

[jaichind]

Long-time DAP leader Lim Kit Siang will not run for re-election

UMNO's Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah also will not run for re-election.  Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah was the former leader of UMNO splinter S46 in the late 1980s and early 1990s before returning to UMNO.  One can argue he was scammed out of being the leader of UMNO and PM back in the 1987 UMNO leadership race.

[jaichind]

PH-controlled state assemblies of Negeri Sembilan and Selangor, where PKR calls the shots, will not call state elections.  IN PH-controlled Penang, where DAP calls the shots, could.  It seems DAP seems to think that Penang PH will benefit from a higher turnout whereas in Negeri Sembilan and Selangor PKR seems that PH will benefit from a lower turnout.

What will be difficult for PH to do to explain these decisions in principled and not tactical terms.

[Joseph Cao]

^ Should stress that this is not at all finalized, the PH presidential council is supposed to discuss a way to reconcile these two positions so the three states can all adopt the same strategy and hasn't released a decision yet. They're late on that incidentally, it was supposed to be announced yesterday.

What we do know at the moment is that:

• Penang chief minister Chow has raised the issue for the council to reconsider, apparently on behalf of Penang DAP (cue rumors that this is opposed by the state PKR). So there's your pocket of discontent with the decision.
• Selangor chief minister Amirudin gave a big showy brief a few days ago about the Sultan not wanting elections, only for the Sultan's secretary to put out a statement the next day saying no such thing was discussed when they met. Why Amirudin felt the need to go out on a limb like this (and he's still there, doubling down, as of yesterday) isn't clear.
• N9 chief minister Aminuddin has not actually done anything that gives away his thoughts on the matter, just said that the state will abide by whatever the council decides. He is arguably in the most danger so this passivity is… really strange.

It does seem, going by who is making the noise, that the DAP/PKR split is correct in essentials. But it seems to be a big chunk of DAP versus one or two PKR leaders, or DAP is just more comfortable with making noise this time round.

Gun to my head I think the state elections will be called off in all three states. Selangor is seemingly dragging its administrative feet for reasons that it, or rather Amirudin himself, refuses to communicate. At least they won't be alone in that – the PAS-controlled states of Kelantan, Terengganu, and Kedah are also not going to state elections.

(And just as I was finishing this post the news broke – no state elections. Strategery!)

In other PAS news the party has formally turned down UMNO's offer to revive their alliance with the deeply silly name because it is "concerned" about "corrupt leaders" in the party. Cue laugh track. But it will continue to use its own party logo instead of the PN coalition's. UMNO is collectively both throwing a fit and doing the "fine, we won't miss you anyway" routine, in at least one case by the same person on the same day. This still means nearly nothing as I mentioned before, PAS is already laying the groundwork for keeping PN out of vulnerable PH seats where it thinks BN can get a clear shot at the incumbents. The understanding is there in all but name.

In other coalition news MUDA has gotten an electoral pact with PH but won't formally join the coalition, because that needs to be cleared with the Registrar of Societies which has not been especially kind to PH or its predecessor PR in the past. PSM, if it is also approved, will be forming a similar pact. Presumably the final confirmation on that will also be issued after the PH council meeting this weekend.

[Joseph Cao]

In an example of the rumor mill going overtime, here's a purported deep dive into the southwestern Selangor constituency of Kuala Langat.

In order of most to least credible rumors:

PKR vice-president Xavier Jeyakumar won it in 2018 and then defected from the party, then to that noted Frog Pot PBM, in 2021. Based on the PBM policy of defending their seats he certainly will continue to run.

As the article mentions there are rumblings of the local PAS assemblyman contesting it, which I can fully believe – he's a known commodity, enough of one to hold on during the PH landslide in the state four years ago. A friend who actually lives in this particular assembly seat is backing up that assertion. And PAS in general has been a credible presence there for decades.

Who PKR puts up to contest is a hot topic, naturally. Jeyakumar was parachuted in and the previous MP, who now serves Kapar, seemingly wants back. So do a few state-level worthies. There are various trash rumors about exactly which worthy is interested which don't bear repeating. Said friend wants to keep mum about all that so most likely PH is clamping a lid down on rumors as much as possible.

MIC. Very strange reasoning by the article, is about all I can say.

[jaichind]

It seems PAS-controlled Kelantan Terengganu and Kedah (in conjunction with PPBM) state assemblies will not dissolve. Clearly a smart move.  In 2018 PAS outperformed in the state assemblies elections relative to the general election even though they were on the same day in those three states so clearly PAS does not want the state elections on the same day.

[jaichind]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/malaysia-najib-razak-jail-corruption-1mdb-umno-ge15-election-jail-prison-election-candidate-3005741

"Jailed former PM Najib among UMNO nominees for Pekan seat contest in upcoming election: Reports"

UMNO will either run Najib if he can get a royal pardon or run one of his children if he could not.

[Joseph Cao]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/malaysia-najib-razak-jail-corruption-1mdb-umno-ge15-election-jail-prison-election-candidate-3005741

"Jailed former PM Najib among UMNO nominees for Pekan seat contest in upcoming election: Reports"

UMNO will either run Najib if he can get a royal pardon or run one of his children if he could not.

The Pekan chapter clarified yesterday that they submitted that list before Najib went to jail… which is odd in itself but not inconsistent with certain factions of UMNO prepping for an early GE from Johor elections onward. And none of his children are on the list. Maybe if Pekan UMNO submits a new list?

For the record Najib is completely disqualified from nomination or election as an MP, that took effect immediately based on Article 48(5) from the moment of conviction. Whether he gets a pardon only has effect on whether he can remain as an MP now, but we're here in this thread because parliament has been dissolved and that has become a moot point.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/malaysias-mahathir-97-run-general-elections-91320556

"Malaysia's Mahathir, 97, to run in general elections"

Mahathir who before said he would not run again will indeed run.  He will be running on the GTA alliance, including his PEJUANG party (pro-Mahathir PPBM splinter) and extreme Malay nationalist Ibrahim Ali's PUTRA, PAS right-wing splinter BERJASA, and  Indian Muslim IMAN.  It seems Mahathir this time want to outflank UMNO and PAS on the Malay nationalist and Islamism flank.  I doubt it will work.

So, let me get this straight. Joe Biden and Donald Trump are too to old lead a country at roughly 80, but Mahathir Mohamad, at 97 isn't?

Something is wrong with this picture.

[jaichind]

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/malaysias-mahathir-97-run-general-elections-91320556

"Malaysia's Mahathir, 97, to run in general elections"

Mahathir who before said he would not run again will indeed run.  He will be running on the GTA alliance, including his PEJUANG party (pro-Mahathir PPBM splinter) and extreme Malay nationalist Ibrahim Ali's PUTRA, PAS right-wing splinter BERJASA, and  Indian Muslim IMAN.  It seems Mahathir this time want to outflank UMNO and PAS on the Malay nationalist and Islamism flank.  I doubt it will work.

So, let me get this straight. Joe Biden and Donald Trump are too to old lead a country at roughly 80, but Mahathir Mohamad, at 97 isn't?

Something is wrong with this picture.

You should watch Mahathir in action getting interviewed.  He is still extremely sharp.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/malaysias-mahathir-97-run-general-elections-91320556

"Malaysia's Mahathir, 97, to run in general elections"

Mahathir who before said he would not run again will indeed run.  He will be running on the GTA alliance, including his PEJUANG party (pro-Mahathir PPBM splinter) and extreme Malay nationalist Ibrahim Ali's PUTRA, PAS right-wing splinter BERJASA, and  Indian Muslim IMAN.  It seems Mahathir this time want to outflank UMNO and PAS on the Malay nationalist and Islamism flank.  I doubt it will work.

If he came back as PM for a 3rd time, he'd be the oldest state leader of all time, rather than number 8, where he demoted Queen Elizabeth II, but she eventually ended up in 4th place. He's already number 1 for someone who regularly stood in contested elections.

[jaichind]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/malaysia-najib-razak-jail-corruption-1mdb-umno-ge15-election-jail-prison-election-candidate-3005741

"Jailed former PM Najib among UMNO nominees for Pekan seat contest in upcoming election: Reports"

UMNO will either run Najib if he can get a royal pardon or run one of his children if he could not.

The Pekan chapter clarified yesterday that they submitted that list before Najib went to jail… which is odd in itself but not inconsistent with certain factions of UMNO prepping for an early GE from Johor elections onward. And none of his children are on the list. Maybe if Pekan UMNO submits a new list?

For the record Najib is completely disqualified from nomination or election as an MP, that took effect immediately based on Article 48(5) from the moment of conviction. Whether he gets a pardon only has effect on whether he can remain as an MP now, but we're here in this thread because parliament has been dissolved and that has become a moot point.

If I were UMNO I would not run any of  Najib's children.  The only campaign slogan that PH has left is "if BN wins then  Najib will be back out on the streets"

[jaichind]

Mahathir at Oxford Union just a few weeks ago.  Clearly still have very strong cognitive abilities.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2QT-y44NhxE&t=822s&ab_channel=OxfordUnion

Feels a lot like my grandma.  She passed away a few years ago when she was 99.  One of the reasons why she lived so long was that in her 60s she suddenly became very interested in politics and spent a lot of time following politics.  Like me, she shifted to an extreme Chinese nationalist position around the late 1980s.  The fact her mind was always on politics gave her something to focus on and live for and really prolonged her life.  I think something similar is going on with Mahathir.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/malaysia-najib-razak-jail-corruption-1mdb-umno-ge15-election-jail-prison-election-candidate-3005741

"Jailed former PM Najib among UMNO nominees for Pekan seat contest in upcoming election: Reports"

UMNO will either run Najib if he can get a royal pardon or run one of his children if he could not.

The Pekan chapter clarified yesterday that they submitted that list before Najib went to jail… which is odd in itself but not inconsistent with certain factions of UMNO prepping for an early GE from Johor elections onward. And none of his children are on the list. Maybe if Pekan UMNO submits a new list?

For the record Najib is completely disqualified from nomination or election as an MP, that took effect immediately based on Article 48(5) from the moment of conviction. Whether he gets a pardon only has effect on whether he can remain as an MP now, but we're here in this thread because parliament has been dissolved and that has become a moot point.

If I were UMNO I would not run any of  Najib's children.  The only campaign slogan that PH has left is "if BN wins then  Najib will be back out on the streets"

How politically interested are Najib's children? If BN did run one of them, which would be likeliest?

[jaichind]

Alliance as I see it so far

Peninsular Malaysia
BN (UMNO MCA MIC) vs PH (DAP PKR AMANAH)-MUDA vs PN (PAS PPBM GERAKAN) vs GTA (PEJUANG PUTRA BERJASA IMAN)

Sabah
BN (UMNO PBRS) vs WARISAN vs PH (DAP PKR AMANAH)-UPKO vs PN (PPBM PBS STAR SAPP USNO)

Sarawak
GPS(PBB SUPP PRS PDP) [backed by BN] vs PH (DAP PKR AMANAH) vs PRBS (PSB PBK PBDS STAR) vs PBM

In Peninsular Malaysia BN clearly has the upper hand.  PH has to hope for a return of the 2018 youth and anti-incumbency surge to have a chance.

The WARISAN-PH split most likely spells doom for PH in Sabah.  WARISAN could win a few seats given the BN-PN split.

Sarawak will be a massive GPS sweep given the opposition split.