Malaysia 2022 General Election Nov 19th

[Joseph Cao]

I did specifically try to avoid bringing that up about Jo-Anna or any of the other candidates similarly covered by local media, yeah. Things are bad enough as it is and nobody's forgotten that hoax thirst trap PAS candidate poster.

[Joseph Cao]

Sarawak

P192 Mas Gading: It is not an exceptional peak or anything, but Mount Rumput helps to bookend one end of a flat and forested seat that stretches from its peak to the hills outside of Bau town where gold mining provided a source of employment for Chinese migrants from the 1840s onward – though the town now goes in for a different kind of gold with the performance of diving athlete and native daughter Pandelela Rinong.
DAP's Mordi Bimol has contested this seat several times and won the party's first Dayak seat last round with a good swing against a heavyweight minister. The PDP has put up businessman Lidang Disen to try and reclaim the seat, and with PBK's fellow businessman Ryan Sim also in the mix this promises to come down to the turnout of local machines which are uniformly GPS-controlled. Mordi has had a good run but GPS has quite clearly placed roadblocks toward development in his seat with the intention of beating him over the head with it. GPS gain from PH

P193 Santubong: This area of the coast has a long trading history, with Tang-dynasty ceramics unearthed at Santubong showing the established trade routes of that era. Running along the coast from international-border rocky outcrops through Rafflesia-studded hilly rocky outcrops to national parks with rocky outcrops, products of the Sunda Shield, this is a seat as oriented toward the beach and tourism side of things as you'll see anywhere in the state.
PBB's Wan Juanidi Tuanku Jaafar has served this seat for four terms and been in Parliament for four more and is stepping aside, telling everyone that politicians move seats because their constituents don't want them anymore and that it won't happen to him. Fellow PBBer Nancy Shukri is moving in from her seat beyond the far side of town. In defiance of Wan Junaidi's opining she will unquestionably blow the electoral prospects of AMANAH's Mohamad Zen Peli and the independent to smithereens. GPS hold

P194 Petra Jaya: Kuching gets split in half by the Sarawak River and is consequently administered by two mayors and two city governments; on the north bank the state capital has swallowed up suburbs like Petra Jaya and produced a seat that stretches out from the Governor's riverfront residence at the Astana through parks and wetlands as far as Kubah National Park to the west. It continues to be titanium PBB thanks to state premier Abang Johari who spent forty years representing an area state seat.
Fadillah Yussof, like his fellow PBB predecessor, has held strong party leadership and ministerial portfolios in Parliament since his election in 2004 and wins by eye-popping margins to match; this is not the year for PKR insurance manager Sopian Julaihi and microparty president Othamn Abdillah, nor is it ever likely to be. GPS hold

P195 Bandar Kuching: The Chinese base in this settlement expanded substantially in size and variety after the surrounding region's cessation to James Brooke and implementation of substantial security measures in what became his seat of government. The old city core along Kuching Waterfront on the south bank has exported its Chinese roots outward and given us such gifts to the palate as kolo mee, also known as Sarawak noodles, in a seat taking in the urban center plus industrial estates further downriver.
Kelvin Yii of DAP has the privilege of this berth in one of the few non-GPS areas anywhere in the state, which will prove even more impenetrable than any of the Brooke-era security as far as SUPP divisional youth chief Eric Tay and microparty president Voon Lee Shan are concerned. PH hold

P196 Stampin: This seat stretches south through the international airport and jumping the Sarawak River to scoop up every remaining part of the Kuching urban area. The iced three-layer milk tea known as Teh C Peng can trace its origin to a local food court within its boundaries that gives the seat's primary composition away as housing estates and service industry. It's still quiet and relatively peaceful for a big city.
Despite, or because of, this the seat is not exactly a DAP fortress by the standards we've seen, and state chairman and incumbent Chong Chieng Jen is facing a challenge from SUPP assemblyman and city council chairman Lo Khere Chiang in the wake of DAP losing its only state seat. PBK newbie Lue Cheng Hing rounds out the ballot. Things don't seem to be breaking heavily for either challenger as they'd need in order to win. The Kuching split ticketer rides again! PH hold

P197 Kota Samarahan: One of Abang Johari's initiatives as premier has been the digital economy, which is supposed to be jumpstarted with a brand new digital village in the Sama Jaya high-tech park in eastern Kuching. Its position further anchors the string of universities coming out east from the city through the otherwise mostly farming and fishing flat area of Kota Samarahan and Taman Desa Ilmu, the Town of Knowledge.
This was for forty years the perch of Taib Mahmud, the infamously cash-hungry longest-serving chief minister, who now occupies the largely ceremonial Brooke-legacy Governorship. But his PBB political machinery is alive and well and continues to deliver huge margins for its candidates – currently incumbent Rubiah Wang, who should blow AMANAH state chair Abang Abdul Halil out of the water come election day. GPS hold

P198 Puncak Borneo: One of those seemingly impossible seats you get from time to time, the seat of Puncak Borneo neither contains high peaks nor has a particular claim to the name Borneo, and in fact within its stretch from the small towns of Padawan and Siburan to the Indonesian border it contains almost nothing but the small rural villages that are Malaysia's last redoubt before vanishing into the jungle completely. The nearly uninterrupted forest is a boon for the Sarawak Biodiversity Center which operates heavily in this seat.
Willie Mongin, with PKR roots stretching back to 2009 and who got told to [obscenity removed] by Bung Mokhtar during parliamentary debate, has jumped ship since defeating a PBB candidate (always a rarity) in 2018 and entered the PBB fold. For this reason (and the recent PBB dominance of the area) he is likely to see his margins grow, and PKR state vice-chairman Diog Dios and PSB's Iana Akam are not likely to advance far toward their goal. GPS hold

P199 Serian: Much of what Serian needs can be grown in the farms and forests covering the seat, but the Bidayuh town is also well-connected to Indonesia via the border crossing at Tebedu which incentivizes imports of cheaper produce from the Indonesian side. The southernmost point in Sarawak nonetheless has a fairly clearly defined economic base and might even remain undisturbed by developers for slightly more than five years down the road.
For all of SUPP incumbent Richard Riot Jaem's long electoral history with the party there have repeatedly been rumors of him defecting to another one, though many of the rumored parties have also publicly refused to consider letting him join. It does not seem to have affected his vote share in a meaningful way and he should cruise against DAP newcomer Learry Jabul and PSB divisional chair Elsiy Tinggang and the independent without too much trouble. GPS hold

P200 Batang Sadong: The eponymous river winds through the flatlands around it that have made this part of Sarawak especially suitable for large-scale farming, which they do in spades; it's said by the local Iban that the agricultural activity drove to extinction the native Munjan bird after which the main town in the seat is named. As the seat shrinks politically it seems set to meet the same administrative fate down the road.
With Nancy Shukri going west PBB has substituted in a first-time candidate, engineer Rodiyah Sapiee; thanks to Nancy's absolutely monster vote share her path to Parliament is well greased against AMANAH state secretary Lahaji Lahiya. GPS hold

P201 Batang Lupar: Dominated by the river, Batang Lupar seat is heavily tied to the rise and fall of its tides, the infamous tidal bore which regularly causes flooding, and other unsavory things that get brought in from the sea. The Iban legend behind the killer crocodile of Bujang Senang that operated for fifty years before being killed in 1992 is only the most famous of these.
PBB's Rohani Abdul Karim is a survivor but may likewise have been swept away by the political tide this time as Abang Johari reportedly lobbied for another candidate. State seat youth chief Mohamad Shafizan Kepli is being substituted in instead as a "young face" which will make not a whit of difference in electoral terms, at least not ones that matter, against PAS's Kuching-area deputy Hamdan Sani and AMANAH's Maxwell Rojis. GPS hold

P202 Sri Aman: The town of Sri Aman itself was founded when Charles Brooke subdued the last of the Iban chieftains in 1864, and renamed to officially commemorate the like cessation of war by most of the communist insurgents then affiliated with the North Kalimantan People's Army. It is the same kind of peace that reigns in daily life in this corner of Sarawak, which despite the name actually stretches much further through nearly uninterrupted jungle west and south to the Indonesian border.
Masir Kujat seems determined to break that. Originally elected under PRS, he frogged over to PSB the next year and then abruptly quit the party earlier this year to sit as an independent giving full support to the Ismail Sabri government (which calls into question what he thinks PSB was doing). He is contesting without a party label. PSB has fielded former civil servant Wilson Entabang in hopes of getting the seat back. PRS has fielded its senator and women's leader Doris Brodie in hopes of getting the seat back. PKR divisional chief Tay Wei Wei is mercifully not affiliated with any former or current party of the incumbent's, who in any case is bereft of his machinery from last time and seems likely to lose to as big a name as this part of Sarawak is used to. GPS gain from IND

P203 Lubok Antu: Just east over the hills around Hulu Undup the ground begins to rise toward the mountainous geosyncline zone marking the extent of the Rajang River's drainage basin. Set in the middle of its eponymous national park a short hop away from the Lubok Antu border crossing, the Batang Ai dam creates an artificial lake in this latter area as its turbines churn out a good chunk of Sarawak's electricity.
Incumbent Jugah Muyang seems determined to combine the froggery of Masir Kujat with the radioactivity of Richard Riot Jaem; originally of PRS, he moved from an independent label to PKR to independent again (months after the Sheraton Move) and made an attempt to rejoin PRS as it became obvious that he needed their electoral machinery but was rebuffed; he is now in PPBM and defending under that banner. But PPBM has never made it far in Sarawak and the ground beneath him is steadily rising as he faces PSB deputy president and assemblyman Johnical Rayong Ngipa, PRS lawyer Roy Angau Gingkoi, and PKR division head Langga Lias. It does seem that PSB might be able to leverage the best machinery here. That may be the determining factor. PSB gain from PN

P204 Betong: Much of Sarawak's politics has been oriented around the lack of follow-up on constitutional promises made to it. The furthest step anyone has ever made toward realizing them was the state's first chief minister, Stephen Kalong Ningkan, who then got pushed out in 1966 by the Governor and the state assembly allegedly with federal support, a constitutional crisis that simmered for months.
Developments in his hometown and seat of Betong are therefore welcome but also a reminder of where Sarawak could be if history and politics had played out differently. Despite the largely agricultural and fishing base more polytechnical and vocational schools are being built here to try to attract attention, though that might take a while. When it does it will not be PBB's Robert Lawson Chuat to greet them; replacement and political secretary Richard Raput is set to electorally annihilate teacher Patrick Kamis of PKR and an independent. GPS hold

P205 Saratok: The hills sweep down to the coast around the Saratok area; they split the land between the Krian and Limut rivers bounding this seat and act as a drainage divide. The seat itself is typical of both sides of the divide: large Iban population, mostly rice and palm oil and fruits and cocoa, one of the oldest Anglican churches in the state in the almost-forgotten settlement of Lichok that hints at vanishing history.
Local boy and civil engineer Ali Biju was one of the highest-ranking PKR members who defected in the Sheraton Move, being the token Bornean party vice-president, and continues to defend under the PPBM banner. PKR mechanical engineer Ibil Jaya represents the offendee party and PDP's chemical engineer Giendam Jonathan Tait is on the offensive. It is anyone's guess whether Ali or Giendam really has the edge, but the incumbent has been on the ground the longest and may even pull the votes of swathes of GPS voters with whom he is friendly. PN hold

P206 Tanjong Manis: The Melanau have gathered along the Rajang River for millennia, particularly at its mouth, where the distinct community they established eventually separated them from other Melanau settlements when it fell under first Bruneian then Brooke control. It was a massive catch for Brooke, who needed the control mainly to deal with the pirate activities and left traditional fishing communities alone which outlasted his empire; the giant tiger prawns of this area are still renowned locally even as the main community has graduated into an integrated port.
Yusuf Abdul Wahab's construction portfolio serves him well in that regard, though the incredible margins that he and other PBB candidates in this area get wouldn't meaningfully change if he didn't. AMANAH women's chief Zainab Suhaili is in the unenviable position of a straight fight up the electoral creek. GPS hold

P207 Igan: Technically an island thanks to the Igan River draining off from the Rajang River at Sibu, this seat subsists off the inevitable palm oil plantations and the fishing from the South China Sea as well as running ferries up the Igan. The river and the seat are supposedly named after a type of fish unique to this particular rivermouth. It hasn't made the seat particularly distinctive, though the Melanau continue to dominate demographically.
PBB's Ahmad Johnie Zawawi continues to benefit from the Stalin margins for his party in this area of the state (having a seat that is 96 percent palm oil plantation by land area will do that for you) and is also set to convincingly win a rematch with AMANAH state leadership development director Andri Zulkarnaen Hamden. GPS hold

[Joseph Cao]

P208 Sarikei: We drop down into the foothill communities around Sarikei and Bintangor surrounded by tributaries of the Rajang as it hurries on toward the sea, a particularly well-connected cluster off the state highway that has been a commercial area as far back as the chicken sellers that gave the town and seat its name. The inhabitants of this seat have adapted with the economic waves, planting pepper and rubber as their respective prices rose; it remains the black pepper, lime, and pineapple capital of Sarawak.
The heavy Chinese population has favored DAP and its incumbent Andrew Wong in his two terms, though by maybe the narrowest margins of any DAP member in a majority-Chinese seat in the country. The SUPP remains that strong locally. Wong is retiring and fielding his son Roderick in his place; the younger Wong is going up against SUPP assemblyman and timber king Huang Tiong Sii, who infamously tried to intimidate and block locals from speaking up against a dam his firm wanted to construct on their land. That's all far away up near Miri however and it does not change the electoral juggernaut that Wong faces. Huang came within eight points of the elder incumbent in 2018. He can certainly close that gap this time. GPS gain from PH

P209 Julau: The hills of central Sarawak march far enough west for the Rajah Brooke to establish a fort on one of the higher hills as a means of defense against hostile Iban, and many rural dwellers still rely on the network of the Kanowit and tributary rivers to get around despite the road stringing Julau and its communities down toward the highway. Among the resultant farming base, like its neighbor across the highway the black pepper remains a high selling and planting point in this seat.
Then-independent Larry Sng consolidated opposition against PRS's Joseph Salang Gandum to defeat him in 2018. Both men have graduated to become presidents of their respective parties – a froggy one in Sng's case – but that diminishes Sng and increases Salang's firepower, especially as Sng has sent his local relations up in smoke and cannot count on the support of a large number of people and parties who now hate his guts. Although Dayak microparty PBDS member Susan George and an independent are hardly huge splits in the opposition, no other party is lifting a finger against Salang's imminent reclamation of his former seat. GPS gain from PBM

P210 Kanowit: Despite its name this seat's history is shaped by the Rajang River – the point where the Kanowit drains into the Rajang was a good place for James Brooke to establish a fort as he sailed up the Rajang, which played a role in his successful campaign against natives living around that river; the Kanowit itself is named after a tribe referred to as the "Rajang" by the Iban thanks to their presence on that river; and even now the Rajang remains the most convenient mode of transport as the roads are still frustratingly small. That suits it to a middleman trade role between Sibu and points further upriver.
Whether PRS's four-term incumbent Aaron Ago Dagang has the power to fix this is an open question, though many residents seem simultaneously to think so and not to mind that he hasn't; that may have something to do with his deputy health portfolio making him the face of the COVID response in Sarawak. PKR's Mhd Fauzi Abdullah and three independents have better terrain to climb than in other places we've seen, but it is still impassable. GPS hold

P211 Lanang: A parcel of land between the river and the highway that jumps both to cut into the southern half of Sibu city, also taking in the satellite Sibu Jaya and the airport, the Lanang seat takes in many of the rubber and timber plantations that made Sibu's name in those industries and have powered its economic ascent – a slightly faster version of the similarly Chinese settlements down the Rajang.
Incumbent Alice Lau of DAP has served two terms with vote shares that likewise are not typical of the Peninsular DAP monster margins. This is shaping up to be a tough challenge for her; SUPP state seat branch chief Wong Ching Yong has the GPS machinery and the loud style to match, PBK sec-gen Priscilla Lau is doing likewise without the machinery, and the independent is doing independent things. DAP needs to improve on their numbers from the state election, but as SUPP maintained its raw vote share that was quite explicitly down to a collapse in raw DAP votes which doesn't seem to be transpiring now. This will be embarrasingly narrow even by Sarawak DAP standards, but the incumbent should hold on. PH hold

P212 Sibu: The arrival of many Chinese in Sibu can be specifically attributed to Christian scholar Wong Nai Siong, responsible for a few waves of Fujianese who came up the wrong end of the response to the Boxer Rebellion being settled in an area he determined was suitable for growing crops (though not rice – that initial project failed). We have him to thank for an excellent Fuzhou-derived cuisine that brightens the days of those working in service industries and vehicle assembly plants and industrial estates that foul the river up.
DAP incumbent Oscar Ling is a high-profile target in a seat that GPS worries is slipping from them permanently. (As it should.) But SUPP's municipal council chairman Clarence Ting has described himself as a "reluctant contestant" and the energy is instead coming from PSB president Wong Soon Koh who has been going all out. Ling has been demagoguing recently and it could either work or backfire – but in a seat like this a backfire requires one challenger to pick up all the pieces to win, and we don't seem to have that. PH hold

P213 Mukah: Sago worms notoriously remain a delicacy for the Melanau and tourists go out of their way to gauge their reactions to it, something that is actively encouraged in the sago processing hub of Mukah. There's not much else that can be done on this peat swamp of a seat apart from fishing (though various universities are coming in, and the seat's arm into Balingian in the east brings in FELCRA land), so why not terrify the European backpackers and collect their money?
If the PBB incumbent Hanifah Hajar Taib, Taib Mahmud's daughter and a multimillionaire (partly as a shareholder in Cahya Mata, and partly by marriage to a Singaporean businessman) has any thoughts on her seat it doesn't really matter; she will win by enormous margins no matter what. In point of fact this rematch with Bintulu PKR division secretary Abdul Jalil Bujang is as much of a snoozefest as the first. GPS hold

P214 Selangau: On a topographical map these are the gentle brushstrokes of the foothills, with the highway running past them from the nowhere or Selangau to the nothing much of Tatau. The seat itself follows, stretching east to grab the Kakus Protected Forest which of course is part of a much larger forest covering most of this seat, where development projects are dangled primarily as vote bait and then laid aside for five more years. Such is the traditional modus operandi of the politikus.
PSB incumbent Baru Bian is heading to Lawas to contest after initially winning this seat on the PKR ticket. As that party is not defending, PRS deputy treasurer-general and divisional election director Edwin Banta faces off against PKR retired teacher Umpang Sabang and an independent – as close to a walkover as Edwin can get after a narrow win by Baru Bian in 2018 to boot. Looks like development bait works again. GPS gain from PSB

P215 Kapit: Those communities further up the Rajang River are even more in need of the river services than Kanowit; Song and Kapit are stuck further up in the mountains with airlift being about the only other way in, until the year of our Lord December 2021 when the road to Sibu finally opened in its entirety. Fort Sylvia, a further incursion into interior Sarawak by the third Brooke, overlooks the region and now has a museum open inside that probably will be getting a whole lot more visitors now.
Rural development deputy minister Alexander Nanta Linggi must be extremely proud. If his thumping reelection against PKR nonentity Khusyairy Pangkas Abdullah and PBDS oil and gas developer Robert Saweng, this certainly will. GPS hold

P216 Hulu Rajang: We are finally in the headwaters of the Rajang, the longest river in Malaysia, high up in the main part of the Kelabit Highlands that bleed into the Indonesia border to the south. This massive, massive constituency, larger than Pahang, the largest by far in Malaysia, seems like a fitting place for the largest concrete dam in Southeast Asia and the second-largest worldwide, though the Bakun Dam in question has long since turned into a white elephant and had far more adverse effects on the local communities and wildlife than will ever be paid back.
PRS incumbent Wilson Ugak Kumbong does not have the personal grip that Tengku Razaleigh does over in the Peninsular's record holder, though PRS certainly dominates the state seats as GPS does all around Sarawak. But in his third straight fight with PKR state deputy chief Abun Sui Anyit he likewise has little to worry about. GPS hold

P217 Bintulu: In 1867 a rebuilt fishing village became the site of the first state legislative assembly anywhere in modern Malaysia, the Sarawak General Council, precursor to today's Legislative Assembly. Things have come a long way beyond that with the largest single gas manufacturing complex in the world setting up shop to process the gas reserves offshore, bringing industrial parks and skyrocketing property prices and squatters to Bintulu's suburbs with it, as the state government attempts to mitigate that with forest plantations and mitigate that mitigation with increases in timber and palm oil harvesting. But the political pettiness is the same today as it ever was.
In his five terms PDP incumbent Tiong King Sing has generated constant controversy; most recently saying lawmakers like him should be allowed to head the oil and gas corporations vulturing in on the area (surprise!) and previously insinuating that Health Ministry Director-General and face of Malaysia's COVID response Noor Hisham Abdullah was "afraid to die" after the DG neglected to visit Bintulu. His margins are remarkably anemic for such an entrenched incumbent, but entrenched he is nonetheless, and DAP divisional publicity chief Tony Chiew and PPBM state information chief Duke Janteng are not going to change that. GPS hold

P218 Sibuti: The Niah Caves remain a wonder, some of the oldest and most complete evidence of prehistoric human habitation to be found anywhere - and especially in southeast Asia when the Deep Skull was discovered. It draws tourists and archaeologists in equal volume as well as a weird privatized scheme of letting out the rights to sections of ceiling covered with bird's nest for specific individuals to collect. Fishing and coral reefs occupy much of the rest of this coastal seat.
PBB one-term incumbent Lukanisman Awang Sauni has repeatedly lobbied for the caves to be designated a UNESCO World Heritage Site, but there is certainly far more in voters' minds when they reelect him over PKR divisional chair Zolhaidah Suboh and PBDS president Bobby William. We'll let you know when we find out what those are. GPS hold

P219 Miri: Locals are more or less unanimous in describing Miri as a boring place. It certainly seems that way when the extensive history of hand-dug oil wells and their Royal Dutch Shell successors and the machinations behind the expansion of the Miri oil field and its status as the birthplace of Malaysia's immensely lucrative (for certain people) oil industry are all reduced to the singular but singular Grand Old Lady sitting in a park downtown. But the sunsets are some of the best anywhere in Malaysia, and the Sarawak noodles and Dayak cuisine are excellent, and Brueni sits invitingly just down the highway.
DAP incumbent Michael Teo has been covered by the media as being "dropped," though the doctor himself has been out supporting the party's decision in the weeks since. Defending for the party is state youth leader Chiew Choon Man who faces relative heavyweights in SUPP councilor Jeffery Phang and PSB former mayor Lawrence Lai. My impression is that Chiew has done what he needs to and will be counting on decent base turnout, which seems to be arriving in good enough quantities, as neither Phang nor Lai have outshone the other enough to consolidate the rest of the vote. PH hold

P220 Baram: This corner of Sarawak is impressively empty. Next door to the largest constituency in Malaysia is the second-largest constituency in Malaysia, this one the size of Perak, covered by the Kelabit Highlands: site of indigenous guerrillas' resistance against the Japanese which proved instrumental in taking back British Borneo during WWII; home to the Kelabit tribe which lent a heavy hand to that effort; site of the second-highest mountain in Sarawak and the Pulong Tau national park with the highest mountain in Sarawak and the twin peaks of Batu Lawi and the unending tourist footfall which these sights bring in.
Like other "mountain DNA" seats this has a history of defying national trends; despite the narrow win that PDP's Anyi Ngau pulled off against PKR now-state chief Roland Engan in 2013, he expanded that to nine points in the 2018 rematch. Roland is back for round three with an independent also in the mix. Expect Ngau to win again but by a fingernail margin just for the banter. GPS hold

P221 Limbang: Brunei is split into two halves by the intervening Limbang District with which this seat is coterminous, its historic rice bowl, anchored by a town whose only road connections are international crossings into that country, which nevertheless has been Sarawakian territory since 1890 thanks to strong-arming by Charles Brooke. Limbang town today, ironically, does not grow any rice but it does boast many of the main Sarawakian products and many of its ethnic groups to match.
Three-termer Hasbi Habibollah of PBB has held this seat down since its creation and seen the non-GPS floor fall out in his tenure; the straight fight with district administrator Racha Balang of PKR is unlikely to go much better for the challenger than the recent low-20s vote shares. GPS hold

P222 Lawas: Sarawak's Christian roots run deep even today thanks to Anglican missionaries arriving with Brooke rule, establishing churches in the southern interior, and to the 1928 Borneo Evangelical Mission in the Kelabit Highlands and Sabahan border regions that cover the entirety of this seat. Like their southern counterparts the Lun Bawang and Murut churches continued to flourish during WWII and led to the founding of Sidang Injil Borneo after the war, with a theological seminary established at the original starting point of the mission that had crossed into Sabah as well; fitting for a seat that remains more connected to that state than to its own.
This was originally part of a single seat with Limbang, though that got split off into its own seat in 2005; the original incumbent Henry Sum Agong has continued to run here and drummed up the usual big margins that his PBB gets. PKR branch chief Japar Suyut has his party's ticket here but the main challenge is coming from his fellow Lun Bawang, PSB's Baru Bian, incumbent of Selangau, native of this seat. Baru Bian has quite a decent electoral history here but Henry's typical margins may drown all of that. GPS hold

Running tally: BN 77 (+37), PH 79 (-12), PN 19 (-22), GPS 24 (+5), PSB 1 (—), GRS 15 (+4), WARISAN 6 (-2), GTA 1 (-3), PBM 0 (-6), IND 0 (-1)

[Joseph Cao]

Final tally:

BN 77 (+37)
PH 79 (-12)
PN 19 (-22)
GPS 24 (+5)
PSB 1 (—)
GRS 15 (+4), comprising BN Sabah 13 (+8) and PN Sabah 2 (-4)
WARISAN 6 (-2)
GTA 1 (-3)
PBM 0 (-6)
IND 0 (-1)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Final tally:

BN 77 (+37)
PH 79 (-12)
PN 19 (-22)
GPS 24 (+5)
PSB 1 (—)
GRS 15 (+4), comprising BN Sabah 13 (+8) and PN Sabah 2 (-4)
WARISAN 6 (-2)
GTA 1 (-3)
PBM 0 (-6)
IND 0 (-1)

Cao, any chance you could write a quick summary of all the parties/coalitions? Not so much their history but what exactly their voter base and raison d'etre are. It's hard to keep track of them all, especially given the shifting sands since the last elections.

[jaichind]

https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/644735

"In Muar, Muhyiddin warns 'Jewish and Christian' agenda"

Muhyiddin says that the 'Jewish and Christian' agendas are behind PH.

The Jewish part is not a big deal since being against global Jewish power is a consensus across the Malaysian political spectrum.  Anwar also railed against Jewish power in the past and claimed in the past that Jewish power was behind BN going after him.  It is the Christian part that is causing a firestorm.  This could cost BN-PN votes in Sabah Christian tribal areas.  I guess Muhyiddin is doing this very late in the campaign to do a last-minute consolidation of conservative Malays in Peninsular Malaysia and hope that the news cycle moves slower in Sabah.

On the global level given the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it is clear that PRC-Russia prefers BN-PN while the collective West prefers PH which would be the same for the 2018 elections.  Muhyiddin campaigning against the collective West is too abstract so he is dumbing it down by saying that 'Jewish and Christian' agendas are behind PH. 

[jaichind]

https://ilhamcentre.my/report/pru15-ph-di-hadapan-bn-pn-bertarung-di-kerusi-melayu-blok-borneo-penentu/

ILHAM Center projection

Very positive for PH, PN, and WARISAN.    GPS only has 18 in Sarawak with 6 tossups sounds like an impossibly good result for PH.

They are saying that all the state elections in 2020-2022 are irrelevant and that the national election vote will go over differently from recent state elections.

Peninsular Malaysia

PH           79
BN           48
PN           25
GTA           1
Tossup     12

Back in 2018, they had

Research firm ILHAM Center came out with their projection for Peninsular Malaysia which has PH as the edge of victory

http://ilhamcentre.com/100-kerusi-mampu-dicapai-ph/

It has

PH   77
BN   56
GS    7
BN/PH tossup 25

And foresees PH at around 100 assuming the tossups are split 50/50.  That would put PH close to the majority as long as PH makes minor gains in Borneo.  

Sabah/Labuan
BN            3
PH            2
GRS          6  (I guess they count the PN part of GRS as GRS while the BN part of GRS as BN)
WARISAN  6
Ind            1 (I assume that this is the PPBM rebel in 181 Tenom)
Tossup       8

Sarawak
GPS         18
PH             6  (I guess they think PKR will hold P219 Miri)
PBM          1  (this would be P209 Julau, he is de facto backed by PH)
Tossup       6

[jaichind]

PH's path to government. 

a) Win at least 85 seats in Peninsular Malaysia
b) Win at least 10 seats in Sabah Sarawak for a total of at least 95 seats
c) PN wins a large number of seats to make them not far from BN in terms of seats

Under this scenario, GPS will be faced with being a part of a stable PH-WARISAN-GPS government or an unstable BN-PN-GPS government where BN and PN will be at each other's throats to figure out who will be PM.  If this is what GPS is faced with there is a chance they choose to go with PH.

For all this to take place PH has to get an inside straight and everything has to break for them but there is a path.

[jaichind]

Election day will see rain in Sabah.  Good for BN-PN as that will be a lower turnout.

[Joseph Cao]

The PKR incumbent for P017 Padang Serai (Kedah) has sadly died. There will be no election there and the seat will remain vacant pending a byelection.

https://www.bernama.com/en/politics/news.php?id=2139922

By-election for Padang Serai to be held on December 7 with nomination day on November 24.

[jaichind]

Vodus Market Research poll

GPS landslide in Sarawak, WARISAN collapse in Sabah.  PH did OK but not great.  PN really outperforms.

[Joseph Cao]

Final tally:

BN 77 (+37)
PH 79 (-12)
PN 19 (-22)
GPS 24 (+5)
PSB 1 (—)
GRS 15 (+4), comprising BN Sabah 13 (+8) and PN Sabah 2 (-4)
WARISAN 6 (-2)
GTA 1 (-3)
PBM 0 (-6)
IND 0 (-1)

Cao, any chance you could write a quick summary of all the parties/coalitions? Not so much their history but what exactly their voter base and raison d'etre are. It's hard to keep track of them all, especially given the shifting sands since the last elections.

Okay, here are my totally unresearched annotations:

BN 77 (+37): grand old coalition dating from independence and retaining token minority arms (that have basically lost credibility outside of a few areas). Has long since been eaten from the inside out with racial appeals, corruption etc. thanks to UMNO's retreat to rural Malay areas who it has chased for a very long time, no thanks to Mahathir and the NEP, and exists solely to preserve itself at this point; has very credible corruption allegations against leaders like Zahid; current government however is led by a man who puts everyone to sleep when he talks, including himself, and this is seen as a good thing by many "apathetic" voters

PH 79 (-12): slightly desperate opposition coalition that has basically reduced to its 2013 composition with Anwar's Reformasi movement party for people who were out on the streets protesting in 1998, the old Chinese and Indians party, the liberal PAS splinter for urbanite Muslims, and a tiny Sabah party that is about to lose its only seat, plus electoral coalition with the The Kids Are Alright party whose voter base overlaps with all of the above. Strongly liberal and reformist and therefore not very effective at doing what it does; also as long as any minority voter stays in DAP's camp the entire coalition will continue to be smeared with "komunis" and "agenda LGBT" and "Jewish and Christian interests" and who knows what else

PN 19 (-22): currently the Malay/Muslim parties that decided they were too cool to be with PH / PH decided they were too cool to be with / probably both, plus irrelevant "multiracial party" that nobody has thought about in years. PAS wants a strongly Islamist government and PPBM is sticking to Mahathir's old MO of Malays first without Mahathir in the equation, and since both of those things are very much an acquired taste the coalition is choosing to run on the Muhyiddin government's tenure which, again, I am not sure works terribly well in the areas they would need to expand to from the base of heavily religious rurals / people who started paying attention to politics in 2021 that they already have, especially the urban areas where some of their current party-hopping MPs need to win just to stay relevant, but it is what it is

GPS 24 (+5): the Sarawak equivalent of BN that suddenly discovered its morals the moment BN lost power, then discarded them again when PH lost: takes advantage of heavily rural indigenous areas, i.e. basically almost all of Sarawak, and has existed for so long that most apolitical people just think of it as the default option. Consequently, will ally specifically with the coalition that gives it money, which BN usually does

PSB 1 (—): very recent splinter from a GPS component party, has new kid on the block status that contrasts with comparatively sclerotic DAP, PKR etc. which accounts for its good performance in the state elections in multiethnic communities, but otherwise has no particular raison d'etre beyond being an option other than GPS

GRS 15 (+4), comprising BN Sabah 13 (+8) and PN Sabah 2 (-4): currently back in power because Sabah voters decided things weren't moving fast enough under Shafie, see below; things aren't moving much faster right now but Sabah isn't due to vote for a few more years. Otherwise is a fairly standard extension of peninsular UMNO and PPBM, and specific Sabah-only parties that do whatever UMNO says at the federal level, that hog every area in Sabah outside of the cities

WARISAN 6 (-2): originally formed when Shafie got kicked out of Sabah UMNO and specifically tacks toward Sabah nationalism in Sabah. When it was in government it continued banging that drum and at the moment, as it holds power neither federally nor at the state level, doesn't stand for much beyond continuing to be able to talk about how Sabah needs more opportunities to talk about how Sabah doesn't have enough opportunities… oh, and in the Peninsular it is basically Everyone Except Me is Bad, so Vote For Me. At least other parties have a semblance of positive things that they stand for

GTA 1 (-3): the vehicle for people who like Mahathir and are on board with his original Malay-only vision, but only the people who like him back, not those jerks in PPBM who he doesn't want to be friends with any more; this includes deeply racially chauvinist micro-microparties that haven't been relevant ever and are happy to hitch their wagons to Mahathir's falling star. In terms of electorally winnable seats this reduces to "people who like Mahathir, and specifically those in Langkawi and neighboring seats"

PBM 0 (-6): see, the only problem with the Sheraton Move was that everyone involved was forced to jump to a Malay-only party. It'll be a real diversity win for Malaysia when every MP considering switching parties has the opportunity to jump to a party that welcomes traitors of every ethnicity!

IND 0 (-1): don't mind them, they're just passing through!

[Joseph Cao]

Final tally:

BN 77 (+37)
PH 79 (-12)
PN 19 (-22)
GPS 24 (+5)
PSB 1 (—)
GRS 15 (+4), comprising BN Sabah 13 (+8) and PN Sabah 2 (-4)
WARISAN 6 (-2)
GTA 1 (-3)
PBM 0 (-6)
IND 0 (-1)

Since I didn't manage to say it last night, by the way, looking forward to whatever egg is on my face tomorrow! The fun of calling every seat, etc.

Exciting news out of the northern belt. Wonder how much the rain will affect things there.

[jaichind]

My projection
                                  BN        PH-MUDA        PN         GTA     WARISAN      GPS
Peninsular Malaysia      77             66             21           1             
Sabah/Labuan               9               4               7                          6
Sarawak                                        5                                                          26
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                  86             75             28            1            6              26

In Sabah BN = UMNO PBRS; PN = PPBM PBS STAR

BN does well enough to get to a bare majority with GPS and will form a government with outside support of PAS

[jaichind]

Merdeka Center final estimate.  They are doubling down on the PN surge and BN collapse.  I think most of the too-close-to-call in Peninsular Malaysia are likely lean BN seats.   Note they exclude P017 Padang Serai (Kedah).

[Logical]

My vibes based prediction, based on social media chatter and candidate quality. I am most likely off the mark here.

PH + MUDA 95
BN 52
PN 40
PEJUANG 1
GPS 25
WARISAN 8

Anyway, I'd like to thank Malaysia for making my own country's politics seem stable and boring in comparison.

[jaichind]

Battle on TikTok seems evenly matched for the 3 fronts.

[Double Carpet]

Thanks so much to everyone for all the updates.

So having just read Billion Dollar Whale (about the 1MDB scandal) tomorrow will be the first Malaysian election I have followed.

Does anyone have non-geoblocked TV links, and sites for results? Live result maps would be especially welcome.

Also am I right that voting closes at 6pm local time?

Many thanks,

DC

[Oryxslayer]

Same. Didn't have much time to invest in this one, like I said earlier, but should have and everything that has been posted here has helped in bringing me up to speed.

I will say that last time I think I listened to the Malay BBC radio and got reporting live in english, so that's an option if you want it.

[jaichind]

Voting ends 5:30PM on Sabah/Sarawak and 6PM in Peninsular Malaysia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLu0wfp6bgw&ab_channel=AstroAWANI
Is a live stream that is in Malay

https://www.myundi.com.my/ is an official site
https://live.undi.info/ might have some unofficial data

Note that official results are announced way later than the actual count.  Some media sites might have unofficial counts which I have to find tomorrow as the polls close.

[Double Carpet]

Thanks so much Jaichind, that's brilliant (Malay is fine, I always prefer to watch foreign elections in the local language).

So correct me if I'm wrong but the system is FPTP and counting is done at polling stations? Or counting centres? How long does it take for the first results to come through and for all counts to be completed?

Are results shown Canadian style (eg latest results in a district with x/y stations counted) or UK style (only completed seat counts shown).

Many thanks again.

[jaichind]

Thanks so much Jaichind, that's brilliant (Malay is fine, I always prefer to watch foreign elections in the local language).

So correct me if I'm wrong but the system is FPTP and counting is done at polling stations? Or counting centres? How long does it take for the first results to come through and for all counts to be completed?

Are results shown Canadian style (eg latest results in a district with x/y stations counted) or UK style (only completed seat counts shown).

Many thanks again.

I am not 100% sure but my understanding is that the count takes place at counting centers whose results are not official until all votes are counted and then released.  So it is the UK system.  So all "official" sites are going to be way behind. 

But unlike the UK there are local stringers that are reporting partial results that do go on various news sites.  Note that there are huge urban-rural divides so the count bias is going to be very anti-PH in all partial counts since the rural areas tend to be counted first.

[jaichind]

Found

https://pru.astroawani.com/

as a site for live (unofficial) results

[jaichind]

65% turnout as of 3PM.  Most likely turnout will end up in the high 70s.  Back in 2018, it was 82%.  Note the two turnouts are not compatible since 18-20-year-olds are now registered and there was a mass automatic registration.  So the registered vote based in 2022 is a lot higher than in 2018.  Still turnout of around high 70s is good but not great for PH

[jaichind]

Early results out of Sarawak show a GPS blowout.   Even in the one Chinese seat, GPS-SUPP is ahead.

P212 - Sibu
GPS-SUPP  41.45%
PH-DAP      29.68%
PSB           28.86% (SUPP splinter)

back in 2018, it was

PH-DAP      59.58%
BN-SUPP    39.45%

Note that the count is still very early and here the count bias is against PH.  I think in the end DAP still wins this once more votes comes in.