OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Moreno should easily win the primary and will do especially well in SE Ohio and Youngstown/Warren.

Definitely the toughest for Brown to beat as well.

Moreno will get clobbered in the Suburbs. Senator Brown has just won Re-Election.

Neither candidate is a particularly good fit for the burbs. I'm still predicting a Brown victory but he's a bit more populist and hardscrabble than Tim Ryan which is an advantage in much of the state but no help in the suburbs.

Depends on the suburbs tbh. Ohio has a lot of working-class suburbs, especially around Cleveland where populist vibes play well.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's the 2018 Sen - 2022 Sen swing using my COIs.

There are a handful of more college educated/high income suburbs in Cinci and Columbus that swung left from 2018, but otherwise, Ryan did worse just about everywhere else in the state including all of rural OH, heavily non-white urban communities, white working class suburbs, and smaller cities like Akron, Dayton, and Canton.

However, a trend map reveals how the divide in OH politics is growing along a pretty strictly urban-rural divide:



If Brown wants to win re-election, he really has to focus on outrunning his 2018 numbers in urban and suburban areas, and acknowledge retaining his 2018 levels of rural crossover support is unrealistic.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1755244246938870023?t=lfkk1lauFXP_IfbtWU...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They aren't winning them

[SnowLabrador]

At a minimum, this shows that the GOP is taking the race much more seriously than they did in 2018, which is to be expected. Now we'll see if Brown can win when they're actually targeting him. My guess is he can't.

[ProgressiveModerate]

At a minimum, this shows that the GOP is taking the race much more seriously than they did in 2018, which is to be expected. Now we'll see if Brown can win when they're actually targeting him. My guess is he can't.

Yeah generally the more spending there is the more nationalized the race becomes and the less ticket-splitting their is. Brown's best hope is probably that OH is somewhat close Presidentially (only like Trump + 3-4). If it's another 8 point Trump win it'll be tricky.

Lean R, with OH as likely R Presidentially.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

At a minimum, this shows that the GOP is taking the race much more seriously than they did in 2018, which is to be expected. Now we'll see if Brown can win when they're actually targeting him. My guess is he can't.

Yeah generally the more spending there is the more nationalized the race becomes and the less ticket-splitting their is. Brown's best hope is probably that OH is somewhat close Presidentially (only like Trump + 3-4). If it's another 8 point Trump win it'll be tricky.

Lean R, with OH as likely R Presidentially.

Why do you keep saying this and every poll has Brown ahead and he has won 3* already false

[SilverStar]

At a minimum, this shows that the GOP is taking the race much more seriously than they did in 2018, which is to be expected. Now we'll see if Brown can win when they're actually targeting him. My guess is he can't.

Yeah generally the more spending there is the more nationalized the race becomes and the less ticket-splitting their is. Brown's best hope is probably that OH is somewhat close Presidentially (only like Trump + 3-4). If it's another 8 point Trump win it'll be tricky.

Lean R, with OH as likely R Presidentially.

Brown will outperfom Biden by way more than that,Brown will outperfom Biden by at least 8 points.

[Fancyarcher]

At a minimum, this shows that the GOP is taking the race much more seriously than they did in 2018, which is to be expected. Now we'll see if Brown can win when they're actually targeting him. My guess is he can't.

Yeah generally the more spending there is the more nationalized the race becomes and the less ticket-splitting their is. Brown's best hope is probably that OH is somewhat close Presidentially (only like Trump + 3-4). If it's another 8 point Trump win it'll be tricky.

Lean R, with OH as likely R Presidentially.

Brown will outperfom Biden by way more than that,Brown will outperfom Biden by at least 8 points.

I'd be genuinely surprised if Brown outperformed Biden by 8 points. Ohio is still a fairly large stage, and that level of ticket splitting presidential wise seems dead.

The last time Brown was up in a presidential election 2012, he barely outran Obama, and percentage wise it was about the same. 2018 isn't a good barometer to go off of, because it was a midterm election with lower turnout.

Brown's a a good retail politician, but his electoral record does not suggest he's some sort of titan, nor is he a massive overperformer like Tester.

[SilverStar]

At a minimum, this shows that the GOP is taking the race much more seriously than they did in 2018, which is to be expected. Now we'll see if Brown can win when they're actually targeting him. My guess is he can't.

Yeah generally the more spending there is the more nationalized the race becomes and the less ticket-splitting their is. Brown's best hope is probably that OH is somewhat close Presidentially (only like Trump + 3-4). If it's another 8 point Trump win it'll be tricky.

Lean R, with OH as likely R Presidentially.

Brown will outperfom Biden by way more than that,Brown will outperfom Biden by at least 8 points.

I'd be genuinely surprised if Brown outperformed Biden by 8 points. Ohio is still a fairly large stage, and that level of ticket splitting presidential wise seems dead.

The last time Brown was up in a presidential election 2012, he barely outran Obama, and percentage wise it was about the same. 2018 isn't a good barometer to go off of, because it was a midterm election with lower turnout.

Brown's a a good retail politician, but his electoral record does not suggest he's some sort of titan, nor is he a massive overperformer like Tester.

Split ticket is very alive in Ohio,Ryan outperfomed Whaley by 19 ponits and Katpur outperfomed Ryan by 13 points.
2012 isn't a good  comparison because Romney was a weaker fit to the State than Trump.
If Doug Jones can outperfom Biden by 5 points in inelastic southern State i see no reason for Brown not to outperfom by 8 in Ohio.

[Fancyarcher]

At a minimum, this shows that the GOP is taking the race much more seriously than they did in 2018, which is to be expected. Now we'll see if Brown can win when they're actually targeting him. My guess is he can't.

Yeah generally the more spending there is the more nationalized the race becomes and the less ticket-splitting their is. Brown's best hope is probably that OH is somewhat close Presidentially (only like Trump + 3-4). If it's another 8 point Trump win it'll be tricky.

Lean R, with OH as likely R Presidentially.

Brown will outperfom Biden by way more than that,Brown will outperfom Biden by at least 8 points.

I'd be genuinely surprised if Brown outperformed Biden by 8 points. Ohio is still a fairly large stage, and that level of ticket splitting presidential wise seems dead.

The last time Brown was up in a presidential election 2012, he barely outran Obama, and percentage wise it was about the same. 2018 isn't a good barometer to go off of, because it was a midterm election with lower turnout.

Brown's a a good retail politician, but his electoral record does not suggest he's some sort of titan, nor is he a massive overperformer like Tester.

Split ticket is very alive in Ohio,Ryan outperfomed Whaley by 19 ponits and Katpur outperfomed Ryan by 13 points.
2012 isn't a good  comparison because Romney was a weaker fit to the State than Trump.
If Doug Jones can outperfom Biden by 5 points in inelastic southern State i see no reason for Brown not to outperfom by 8 in Ohio.

Again midterms aren't the best comparisons. Brown outperforming Biden by a huge, huge margin seems very unrealistic on paper, especially with Trump on the ballot. There's no recent history of it... so far.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeWine was on the ballot , users think OH is another MO it's not

[S019]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4510585-no-labels-to-host-call-with-ohio-senate-candidate-frank-larose/amp/

Hmmm, I wonder if some form of cross endorsement backed by big spending in the primary is in the cards…

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/_ktmsmith/status/1765538288528490973?s=20

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/henryjgomez/status/1766136138564046857?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4...

[2016]

Dolan gets the Endorsement of Ohio Governor Mike DeWine per The Hill

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1767326143240130810

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1767305332680733142

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1767305332680733142

Browns hope probably relies on a good number of Rs being salty about whoever wins the primary.

If Dolan wins, maybe enough Magas choose to vote 3rd party or leave the Senate ballot blank out of spite for Brown to be put over the top. If Moreno wins perhaps enough Dolan supporters feel disaffected and are willing to vote for Brown.

Wouldn't count on it, but a divided GOP could definitely help Brown around the margins, and may shape and who wins the R primary may shape what types of voters he wants to try and appeal to.

[2016]

Cook Political Report says Ohio Republican Senate Primary is a Toss Up despite Bernie Moreno receiving Dinald Trumps Endorsement.
The Question is: Will Trump outweigh the combined Endorsements of former Senator Portman & current Governor DeWine, who both have endorsed Dolan, or not.

Hopefully Senate Republicans are not in this Position again like they were in 2022 when they had to spend 30M $ to prop up Vance.

[Dan the Roman]

Dolan can self-fund. With Trump on the ballot moderating rightflank issues Brown might well lose by close to the presidential margin. Dolan may have greater appeal to republican Biden voters than Brown has to Trump ones

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Cook Political Report says Ohio Republican Senate Primary is a Toss Up despite Bernie Moreno receiving Dinald Trumps Endorsement.
The Question is: Will Trump outweigh the combined Endorsements of former Senator Portman & current Governor DeWine, who both have endorsed Dolan, or not.

Hopefully Senate Republicans are not in this Position again like they were in 2022 when they had to spend 30M $ to prop up Vance.

If Senate Republicans spent $0 on Vance he still would have won. McConnell wasted money on Ohio as an excuse for not funding Masters.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1768064800788017216
Probably tells you something about who Democrats think would be a stronger candidate.

I also maintain that the GOP is incredibly lucky that this primary is next week rather than in August.

[S019]

Clearly Democrats have failed to learn their lessons. This is literally Ohio, the state that Donald Trump turned into a safe Republican state, no reason to think a Trumpist candidate is even uniquely weak here. I mean at a certain point they need to learn to stop playing with fire.

[Tekken_Guy]

Clearly Democrats have failed to learn their lessons. This is literally Ohio, the state that Donald Trump turned into a safe Republican state, no reason to think a Trumpist candidate is even uniquely weak here. I mean at a certain point they need to learn to stop playing with fire.

I don’t see what’s wrong with this? Brown has a good chance of beating Moreno, and Moreno’s voting record won’t be that much different from Dolan’s.

[Dan the Roman]

Clearly Democrats have failed to learn their lessons. This is literally Ohio, the state that Donald Trump turned into a safe Republican state, no reason to think a Trumpist candidate is even uniquely weak here. I mean at a certain point they need to learn to stop playing with fire.

I don’t see what’s wrong with this? Brown has a good chance of beating Moreno, and Moreno’s voting record won’t be that much different from Dolan’s.

Ohio is control of the US Senate.

West Virginia is safe R.

There seems to be a consensus brewing among both parties that Tester and Cruz are in much better shape than initially appeared so with those two in the hands of a presidential wave, that leaves Ohio as the only hope for a Democratic senate