OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R)

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Any thoughts after seeing the Abortion and Weed initiatives?

Obviously, those margins are not realistic for the Senate race, but it does show at least some individual issues work to Dems favor in Ohio, and the "liberal" or Democrat associated side can win statewide ballot initiatives.

It shows that there are some issues (especially relating to personal freedom) that Democrats have an advantage on. It doesn’t mean people will elect Dems because they pair those positions with more unpopular ones on crime, taxes, guns, immigration, race, transgenderism etc, so people may vote more on that. Especially if the popular positions are now settled, that may actually decrease Democratic support.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Any thoughts after seeing the Abortion and Weed initiatives?

Obviously, those margins are not realistic for the Senate race, but it does show at least some individual issues work to Dems favor in Ohio, and the "liberal" or Democrat associated side can win statewide ballot initiatives.

The electorate was Biden+2, which means the abortion initiative only overperformed Trump by about 3%. I don't think this means much.

[windjammer]

I genuinely don't believe Sherrod Brown is a particular underdog (I'm more worried about MT actually).

He won in 2018 by 7 points After all

[Rjjr77]

Any thoughts after seeing the Abortion and Weed initiatives?

Obviously, those margins are not realistic for the Senate race, but it does show at least some individual issues work to Dems favor in Ohio, and the "liberal" or Democrat associated side can win statewide ballot initiatives.

There are a large amount of voters who will vote for an issue, but it is not what makes their choice for a candidate. Nan Whaley ran for governor in Ohio with Abortion as her main issue and got smoked. Neither of these are gonna shift many votes.

[Tekken_Guy]

Any thoughts after seeing the Abortion and Weed initiatives?

Obviously, those margins are not realistic for the Senate race, but it does show at least some individual issues work to Dems favor in Ohio, and the "liberal" or Democrat associated side can win statewide ballot initiatives.

There are a large amount of voters who will vote for an issue, but it is not what makes their choice for a candidate. Nan Whaley ran for governor in Ohio with Abortion as her main issue and got smoked. Neither of these are gonna shift many votes.

Whaley was a challenger to a very popular incumbent. Brown is the incumbent meanwhile. So their circumstances are quite different.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Conserv act this is 2005 instead of 2024 the Economy is totally different that's why VA, CO flipped from R to D because Latinos are poor too

We won't get 415 but 335 OH and NC are in that realm of probably

[pabloni21]

i looked at the atlas’ predictions for ‘24 Senate and why do people have Ohio flipping but Montana not? both tester and brown are strong candidates and incumbents, and with regards to Ohio the state’s not crazy red. on top of that, brown’s most notable opponent right now is larose who kinda shot himself in the foot with the referendums this year. imo brown wins but within the 1-4ish range

[wbrocks67]

Trump endorses Moreno. Really great recruitment happening in OH, PA, AZ, you name it!

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1737238151004143888

[Horus]

Moreno should easily win the primary and will do especially well in SE Ohio and Youngstown/Warren.

Definitely the toughest for Brown to beat as well.

[wbrocks67]

Moreno should easily win the primary and will do especially well in SE Ohio and Youngstown/Warren.

Definitely the toughest for Brown to beat as well.

Quite literally the opposite of what all of the polling has told us so far, but sure okay

[2016]

Moreno should easily win the primary and will do especially well in SE Ohio and Youngstown/Warren.

Definitely the toughest for Brown to beat as well.

Moreno will get clobbered in the Suburbs. Senator Brown has just won Re-Election.

[Horus]

Moreno should easily win the primary and will do especially well in SE Ohio and Youngstown/Warren.

Definitely the toughest for Brown to beat as well.

Moreno will get clobbered in the Suburbs. Senator Brown has just won Re-Election.

Neither candidate is a particularly good fit for the burbs. I'm still predicting a Brown victory but he's a bit more populist and hardscrabble than Tim Ryan which is an advantage in much of the state but no help in the suburbs.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Trump will win with a Republican House and a Democratic Senate.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Trump will win with a Republican House and a Democratic Senate.

This is basically impossible unless Rick Scott or Ted Cruz goes down.

[Woody]

Moreno should easily win the primary and will do especially well in SE Ohio and Youngstown/Warren.

Definitely the toughest for Brown to beat as well.

Quite literally the opposite of what all of the polling has told us so far, but sure okay

Ohhhh, so now you believe in polling, huh? Nah, nah, nah you don't get to suddenly go away from that to this.

[GALeftist]

It’s over

[oldtimer]

Moreno should easily win the primary and will do especially well in SE Ohio and Youngstown/Warren.

Definitely the toughest for Brown to beat as well.

Brown has won re-election.

LaRose plus Trump winning Ohio by more that 10 would have been needed.
Since LaRose won't be the GOP nominee, then it doesn't matter by how much Trump wins Ohio.

[oldtimer]

Trump will win with a Republican House and a Democratic Senate.

This is basically impossible unless Rick Scott or Ted Cruz goes down.

True, Republicans are only going to flip WV and perhaps nothing else, giving them 50-50 tie with Trump's VP breaking it.

But I assume that Murkowski will officially change parties at some point.

[wbrocks67]

Moreno should easily win the primary and will do especially well in SE Ohio and Youngstown/Warren.

Definitely the toughest for Brown to beat as well.

Moreno will get clobbered in the Suburbs. Senator Brown has just won Re-Election.

Neither candidate is a particularly good fit for the burbs. I'm still predicting a Brown victory but he's a bit more populist and hardscrabble than Tim Ryan which is an advantage in much of the state but no help in the suburbs.

Why are we still making stuff up? Brown is an objectively great candidate for the suburbs.

[MT Treasurer]

Brown has won re-election.

LaRose plus Trump winning Ohio by more that 10 would have been needed.
Since LaRose won't be the GOP nominee, then it doesn't matter by how much Trump wins Ohio.

"Sherrod Brown is totally underrated, guys"

[windjammer]

I genuinely don't believe Moreno is a worse candidate than Larose. Larose seems to be quite a paper ticket to me

[MT Treasurer]

I genuinely don't believe Moreno is a worse candidate than Larose. Larose seems to be quite a paper ticket to me

The best thing for him is that he can’t be tied to McConnell/D.C. party bosses/consultants like some of these other GOP recruits — that’s a bigger negative than being tied to Trump, even more so in a state like OH. It’s actually really helpful that the NRSC decided to stay out of this race.

His 'career politicians' playbook could also prove effective against Brown, who has been in politics for nearly half a century.

Yes, he's 'Trumpian', but so was Vance and he still won in what was a downright terrible year for the GOP in the Midwestern battlegrounds. Presidential turnout & Trump being on the ballot will help Moreno in this race, even if a more generic R might have performed a little better.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

What makes Bernie Moreno a bad candidate?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What makes Bernie Moreno a bad candidate?

I mean, for one thing, he won’t stop demanding that Africans-Americans pay reparations to white people as compensation for the Civil War.  For another, he’s a piss poor campaigner with a general tendency to stick his foot in his mouth in ways that are easy to turn into attack ad soundbites and has been running a pretty lazy campaign.  He’s also basically a random rich dude with little meaningful political experience.  The random rich guy trying to buy a seat vs. working-class man of the people contrast plays right into Sherrod Brown’s hands.

[windjammer]

I genuinely don't believe Moreno is a worse candidate than Larose. Larose seems to be quite a paper ticket to me

The best thing for him is that he can’t be tied to McConnell/D.C. party bosses/consultants like some of these other GOP recruits — that’s a bigger negative than being tied to Trump, even more so in a state like OH. It’s actually really helpful that the NRSC decided to stay out of this race.

His 'career politicians' playbook could also prove effective against Brown, who has been in politics for nearly half a century.

Yes, he's 'Trumpian', but so was Vance and he still won in what was a downright terrible year for the GOP in the Midwestern battlegrounds. Presidential turnout & Trump being on the ballot will help Moreno in this race, even if a more generic R might have performed a little better.

And frankly given Larose's drama with the abortion ballot initiative, he doesn't strike me as a great candidate,...

Romney lost OH, Trump won it