OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R)

[Badger]

On the one hand Moreno may have issues. On the other he ran for Senate last time, has been a major figure in the stage for a decade,  and more importantly these numbers reveal a very Trumpy Ohio. This isn't an Oz/McCormack nailbiter.

So while I think Dolan was a better candidate, I think there is evidence tonight that it won't matter, and Brown was likely doomed before this campaign began.

I don't just mean the GOP turnout. Biden is losing 13% to Philips, and that is 21% in a place like Trumbell.

In short, on these numbers I expect Ohio to trend red from 2020.

Yes, very clever and accurate to predict a trumpy looking Ohio based on (checks notes) Republican primary results.

[Badger]

It's still a tossup, but this is indeed the best matchup for Brown.

Ohio is a tipping point seat so this race is not Moreno vs Brown but Schumer vs Cornyn/Thune

Cool story. Cool cool. Please run on the campaign that Jonathan needs to be Senate Majority Leader as opposed to Chuck Schumer would not one in 50 Ohioans knows who the former is and not one in 10 knows the latter, almost every one of which are hardcore political partisans whose vote is already baked in. But you do you.

Now, if you had been clever enough to claim that Moreno just needs to tie himself onto TRUMP'S coattails like it was a Lifeline - which frankly it is - you would have been mostly right. But of course you didn't.

[Badger]

For Democrats who are being overconfident of victory at this point, let's look at some things :

1) The potential vote-splitting that is needed for Brown to win. For context, here is Ohio in the last five Elections

2004 : Bush (R) +2.1
2008 : Obama (D) +4.59
2012 : Obama (D) +2.98
2016 : Trump (R) +8.07
2020 : Trump (R) +8.03

Now let's look at Brown's Victory Margins in his three elections

2006 : Brown (D) +12.34
2012 : Brown (D) +6
2018 : Brown (D) +6.84

Now, let's remove 2006 and 2018 and overlay Obama's victory and Brown's victory in 2012 to see how much Brown overperformed in 2012, when Ohio was more competitive than it is now

2012 : Brown +0.03

Now, let's look at Trump's recent polling in Ohio

As of rn, it looks like, if the election was held today, Trump would win Ohio by 10-12 % or more.

In a year where Trump is on the ballot, when his endorsed candidate is the Republican Nominee for Senate, in a very Trump friendly state, Brown would need to outperform Biden by at least 13 % or more. While we may see him outperform Joe by 4-6 %, outperforming him by double digits will be a damn near herculean task.

Meanwhile, it looks like Moreno has essentially united the base behind him with a +16.2 (AND GROWING) victory in the primary and has eight months to further fundraise, solidify the base behind him, and campaign with Trump in an election where the major thing will be how pro-America First policies you are in a state that is very pro-Trump while Brown has Biden's unpopularity hanging him down like a damn noose.

I'm not saying a Moreno win is inevitable, but for Democrats saying like because Moreno and not Dolan is the Nominee, Ohio will stay blue downballot, don't expect to see an easy Brown win. Ohio is no longer a moderate or competitive state (and for people who bring up OH 2010, 2016, or DeWine's Re-election, the Democrats really didn't try in those races, especially when you remember DeWine was almost primaried out by more conservative opponents who, if united, likely would've beaten him, making him the first Governor since Abercombie (iirc) to be primaried). It's a populist right-wing state.

This is like saying a Pro-Sanders Candidate would lose in Oregon in an election where Sanders was the nominee.

2) You all said all the same things about J. D. Vance in 2022 and I remember it. You guys believed he was the weakest but then he legitimately won the race, surprising you all. The only reason he won by 7 and not by more was because he was 1) his primary was divisive, 2) Trump wasn't on the ballot, 3) 2022 seems to have been a weird aberration of a year that might not happen again for a long time.

Like I said, I am not saying a Moreno win is inevitable, but you all shouldn't be treating Brown's re-election to a 4th term as inevitable because your echochambers tells you Biden is secretly popular or he will have a magical surge and win 55 % of the NPV. I'm treating the Presidential Election and the big three (outside of WV for obvious reasons) as what they should be perceived as : absolute, bitter dogfights to the bitter end and this attitude will only end in the last two weeks of the race.

I reccomend you all take the same opinion.

There were entire herds of horses starving from the amount of straw you stole to create those arguments. No one, and I mean no one on this form was as you put surprised that JD Vance won. That is just an outright self-serving fabrication on your part. In reality, we were all just happy that he was such a crappy candidate who ran against our best receivable candidate to make the race at least somewhat competitive to demand Republican resources even in a Biden midterm election.

Likewise, every other word of that wall of text you typed was basically more straw man. Few if any democrats/progressives here tonight are confident that brown is going to waltz his way to a fourth term. The simple fact is that the Republicans nominated their most trumpy, and thus as usual weakest, candidate imaginable giving Brown's re-election chances and undeniably tangible boost. But few if any red avatars are calling this anything but better than and even race or at best tilt brown.


To say he has solidified the Republican base when he only pulled out half of the primary vote despite Trump's active and aggressive support is a hell of an overstatement. There aren't going to be whole scale defections from the other half of Republican primary voters, but there will be tangible numbers of Dolan / Brown voters.
Come back when you have actual analysis to offer.

[Badger]

Moreno's performance is quite impressive considering Trump is only hitting 79%.

Relatively trumpy electorate but on the lower side than I would have expected.  

How is the Trump endorsed candidate running 30 points behind his master who endorsed and actively campaigned for him somehow "quite impressive"?

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Moreno's performance is quite impressive considering Trump is only hitting 79%.

Relatively trumpy electorate but on the lower side than I would have expected.  

How is the Trump endorsed candidate running 30 points behind his master who endorsed and actively campaigned for him somehow "quite impressive"?

Considering it was expected to be a close race (and even some suggestion that Dolan was favored), for moreno to win by 18 points with a county sweep is impressive.  

[Badger]

Moreno's performance is quite impressive considering Trump is only hitting 79%.

Relatively trumpy electorate but on the lower side than I would have expected.  

How is the Trump endorsed candidate running 30 points behind his master who endorsed and actively campaigned for him somehow "quite impressive"?

Considering it was expected to be a close race (and even some suggestion that Dolan was favored), for moreno to win by 18 points with a county sweep is impressive.  

Expectations and predicted suggestions? Dude, he got half the vote despite Trump's wholehearted backing. Not a close race, but dramatically overstated to claim he is solidified the base when the numbers just don't support that analysis.

[Vosem]

I can’t believe Moreno wasn’t attacked hard for being pro Palestine

Not only is he not pro-Palestine, he's kind of comically pro-Israel; much of his early political involvement in the 2010s was basically about Zionism (you can find sustained Israel shilling from him from, like, 2015-2016, before his views on any other issues were known) and he has Republican Jews among his family members.

(Like, his campaign both this year and in 2022 has occasionally talked about how he's invested in companies that support the Israeli military. This is pretty clearly actually one of his bigger issues.)

[Dan the Roman]

On the one hand Moreno may have issues. On the other he ran for Senate last time, has been a major figure in the stage for a decade,  and more importantly these numbers reveal a very Trumpy Ohio. This isn't an Oz/McCormack nailbiter.

So while I think Dolan was a better candidate, I think there is evidence tonight that it won't matter, and Brown was likely doomed before this campaign began.

I don't just mean the GOP turnout. Biden is losing 13% to Philips, and that is 21% in a place like Trumbell.

In short, on these numbers I expect Ohio to trend red from 2020.

Yes, very clever and accurate to predict a trumpy looking Ohio based on (checks notes) Republican primary results.

1. Learn some manners
2. Learn to read.

I am basing this on

1. The turnout for both presidential primaries
2. The margin in the GOP senate primary
3. The margins in both presidential primaries.

GOP turnout was high by any measure. Not "higher". High objectively.

Democratic turnout was meh. Spin what you want about it not being competitive. In 2020 everyone but Biden had withdrawn, and it was in the middle of covid lockdowns. Turnout was still 894k. This time it was 523k.

It has gone from 2.24m in 2008 to 1.24m in 2016 to 893k in 2020 to 523k in 2024.

Within this meh turnout Biden showed weakness not in leftwing areas but in what should be Brown's base. Places like Trumbull where Philips is getting 21%. That is a county which went from Obama +23 in 2012 to Trump +11 in 2020.

We have seen these numbers before. In places like West Virginia and Kentucky in the Obama years. They are a sign of continued erosion.

Now we can't know things for sure, but what we saw tonight to the extent it tells us anything is that

1. Dolan was not particularly strong. Even with Dewine/Kasich/Portman support he lost by nearly 20

2. Trump's endorsement took an also ran to a landslide

3. To the extent to which Democratic turnout was ancestral, Democrats are continuing to lose the voters they lost 2012-2016.

4. Moreno was STRONGEST in precisely the areas Biden was weakest

Brown will need a coalition he has never won before which means crossover votes from a type of Republican he has never had much appeal to.

As someone who thinks Montana is lean D, for me Ohio is pretty solidly Lean R after tonight and I wouldn't be surprised if Brown loses by 7+

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH Sen isn't Lean R every poll except 1 has Brown leading by 5 pts over Bernie Moreno and 3 pts over Dolan

I feel a lot easier to know Dolan isn't the nominated

Allred, Tester and Brown are winning due to split vote

[DrScholl]

I imagine the Brown campaign has a huge oppo file ready for Moreno...

What? Who doesn't love auto dealers?

Will be interesting to see if he's sold any lemons. A pattern of doing that is the sort of thing that makes voters pay attention.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I don’t think Brown has it in the bag, but I’d rather be Brown than Moreno right now. Or just in general

[NOVA Green]

One should also not forget that effectively female reproductive rights are still on the ballot in Ohio.

The voters overwhelmingly went one way, but there has been consistent obstructions within the Republican dominated State Government to prevent the will of the voters from passing.

Overwhelming majority of OH voters supported legal weed, but still is being obstructed.

Overwhelming majority of OH voters backed the attempt of the State PUB GVT to gut workers rights...

People of OH, in a state in which I lived and many parts love so well, are not a one trick pony to be punched around.

Brown has a well known brand and plus quite frankly support from a large majority of OH voters on many of his political positions...

[Yoda]

Ohio turnout seems fo be very low.

I'm more politically engaged/aware than 99% of Ohioans and even I didn't bother voting. There were no meaningful primaries on the dem side, and all the local levies were gonna pass no matter what and all the offices were uncontested. No point. I'll vote the first day of early voting for the GE though, of course.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don’t think Brown has it in the bag, but I’d rather be Brown than Moreno right now. Or just in general

I trust Brown to run a good campaign.

But should he lose, I will blame Ohio for just being unwinnable for Democrats from now on at literally every major level.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I can’t believe Moreno wasn’t attacked hard for being pro Palestine

Was he? Considering Max Miller is his son-in-law…

No, much of MAGA is pro-Israel in the worst way possible. They oppose US funding for Israel, but they are still fully in favor of the IDF glassing the browns.

[omar04]

https://twitter.com/smomwetgobam/status/1770294904461131966

Fairly good news for Stephens.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/lyndonbajohnson/status/1770290291448107228

[windjammer]

For Democrats who are being overconfident of victory at this point, let's look at some things :

1) The potential vote-splitting that is needed for Brown to win. For context, here is Ohio in the last five Elections

2004 : Bush (R) +2.1
2008 : Obama (D) +4.59
2012 : Obama (D) +2.98
2016 : Trump (R) +8.07
2020 : Trump (R) +8.03

Now let's look at Brown's Victory Margins in his three elections

2006 : Brown (D) +12.34
2012 : Brown (D) +6
2018 : Brown (D) +6.84

Now, let's remove 2006 and 2018 and overlay Obama's victory and Brown's victory in 2012 to see how much Brown overperformed in 2012, when Ohio was more competitive than it is now

2012 : Brown +0.03

Now, let's look at Trump's recent polling in Ohio

As of rn, it looks like, if the election was held today, Trump would win Ohio by 10-12 % or more.

In a year where Trump is on the ballot, when his endorsed candidate is the Republican Nominee for Senate, in a very Trump friendly state, Brown would need to outperform Biden by at least 13 % or more. While we may see him outperform Joe by 4-6 %, outperforming him by double digits will be a damn near herculean task.

Meanwhile, it looks like Moreno has essentially united the base behind him with a +16.2 (AND GROWING) victory in the primary and has eight months to further fundraise, solidify the base behind him, and campaign with Trump in an election where the major thing will be how pro-America First policies you are in a state that is very pro-Trump while Brown has Biden's unpopularity hanging him down like a damn noose.

I'm not saying a Moreno win is inevitable, but for Democrats saying like because Moreno and not Dolan is the Nominee, Ohio will stay blue downballot, don't expect to see an easy Brown win. Ohio is no longer a moderate or competitive state (and for people who bring up OH 2010, 2016, or DeWine's Re-election, the Democrats really didn't try in those races, especially when you remember DeWine was almost primaried out by more conservative opponents who, if united, likely would've beaten him, making him the first Governor since Abercombie (iirc) to be primaried). It's a populist right-wing state.

This is like saying a Pro-Sanders Candidate would lose in Oregon in an election where Sanders was the nominee.

2) You all said all the same things about J. D. Vance in 2022 and I remember it. You guys believed he was the weakest but then he legitimately won the race, surprising you all. The only reason he won by 7 and not by more was because he was 1) his primary was divisive, 2) Trump wasn't on the ballot, 3) 2022 seems to have been a weird aberration of a year that might not happen again for a long time.

Like I said, I am not saying a Moreno win is inevitable, but you all shouldn't be treating Brown's re-election to a 4th term as inevitable because your echochambers tells you Biden is secretly popular or he will have a magical surge and win 55 % of the NPV. I'm treating the Presidential Election and the big three (outside of WV for obvious reasons) as what they should be perceived as : absolute, bitter dogfights to the bitter end and this attitude will only end in the last two weeks of the race.

I reccomend you all take the same opinion.

You're analysing data you want to analyse frankly

In 2018, in a d+8 environnement, Brown won by 7 so he Can clearly overperform.

This race is a toss UP to me.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown has lead in every poll and Brown won in 2012 in a D4 Environment it doesn't have to be a D8 Environment to win the S race

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1770251071505461562
This unironically might matter more than we think.

[Flyersfan232]

For Democrats who are being overconfident of victory at this point, let's look at some things :

1) The potential vote-splitting that is needed for Brown to win. For context, here is Ohio in the last five Elections

2004 : Bush (R) +2.1
2008 : Obama (D) +4.59
2012 : Obama (D) +2.98
2016 : Trump (R) +8.07
2020 : Trump (R) +8.03

Now let's look at Brown's Victory Margins in his three elections

2006 : Brown (D) +12.34
2012 : Brown (D) +6
2018 : Brown (D) +6.84

Now, let's remove 2006 and 2018 and overlay Obama's victory and Brown's victory in 2012 to see how much Brown overperformed in 2012, when Ohio was more competitive than it is now

2012 : Brown +0.03

Now, let's look at Trump's recent polling in Ohio

As of rn, it looks like, if the election was held today, Trump would win Ohio by 10-12 % or more.

In a year where Trump is on the ballot, when his endorsed candidate is the Republican Nominee for Senate, in a very Trump friendly state, Brown would need to outperform Biden by at least 13 % or more. While we may see him outperform Joe by 4-6 %, outperforming him by double digits will be a damn near herculean task.

Meanwhile, it looks like Moreno has essentially united the base behind him with a +16.2 (AND GROWING) victory in the primary and has eight months to further fundraise, solidify the base behind him, and campaign with Trump in an election where the major thing will be how pro-America First policies you are in a state that is very pro-Trump while Brown has Biden's unpopularity hanging him down like a damn noose.

I'm not saying a Moreno win is inevitable, but for Democrats saying like because Moreno and not Dolan is the Nominee, Ohio will stay blue downballot, don't expect to see an easy Brown win. Ohio is no longer a moderate or competitive state (and for people who bring up OH 2010, 2016, or DeWine's Re-election, the Democrats really didn't try in those races, especially when you remember DeWine was almost primaried out by more conservative opponents who, if united, likely would've beaten him, making him the first Governor since Abercombie (iirc) to be primaried). It's a populist right-wing state.

This is like saying a Pro-Sanders Candidate would lose in Oregon in an election where Sanders was the nominee.

2) You all said all the same things about J. D. Vance in 2022 and I remember it. You guys believed he was the weakest but then he legitimately won the race, surprising you all. The only reason he won by 7 and not by more was because he was 1) his primary was divisive, 2) Trump wasn't on the ballot, 3) 2022 seems to have been a weird aberration of a year that might not happen again for a long time.

Like I said, I am not saying a Moreno win is inevitable, but you all shouldn't be treating Brown's re-election to a 4th term as inevitable because your echochambers tells you Biden is secretly popular or he will have a magical surge and win 55 % of the NPV. I'm treating the Presidential Election and the big three (outside of WV for obvious reasons) as what they should be perceived as : absolute, bitter dogfights to the bitter end and this attitude will only end in the last two weeks of the race.

I reccomend you all take the same opinion.

You're analysing data you want to analyse frankly

In 2018, in a d+8 environnement, Brown won by 7 so he Can clearly overperform.

This race is a toss UP to me.

jim renacci gave up and it was a midterm compare to a presidential election.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Dolan losing Cuyahoga might the most embarrassing result of the cycle so far.

[windjammer]

For Democrats who are being overconfident of victory at this point, let's look at some things :

1) The potential vote-splitting that is needed for Brown to win. For context, here is Ohio in the last five Elections

2004 : Bush (R) +2.1
2008 : Obama (D) +4.59
2012 : Obama (D) +2.98
2016 : Trump (R) +8.07
2020 : Trump (R) +8.03

Now let's look at Brown's Victory Margins in his three elections

2006 : Brown (D) +12.34
2012 : Brown (D) +6
2018 : Brown (D) +6.84

Now, let's remove 2006 and 2018 and overlay Obama's victory and Brown's victory in 2012 to see how much Brown overperformed in 2012, when Ohio was more competitive than it is now

2012 : Brown +0.03

Now, let's look at Trump's recent polling in Ohio

As of rn, it looks like, if the election was held today, Trump would win Ohio by 10-12 % or more.

In a year where Trump is on the ballot, when his endorsed candidate is the Republican Nominee for Senate, in a very Trump friendly state, Brown would need to outperform Biden by at least 13 % or more. While we may see him outperform Joe by 4-6 %, outperforming him by double digits will be a damn near herculean task.

Meanwhile, it looks like Moreno has essentially united the base behind him with a +16.2 (AND GROWING) victory in the primary and has eight months to further fundraise, solidify the base behind him, and campaign with Trump in an election where the major thing will be how pro-America First policies you are in a state that is very pro-Trump while Brown has Biden's unpopularity hanging him down like a damn noose.

I'm not saying a Moreno win is inevitable, but for Democrats saying like because Moreno and not Dolan is the Nominee, Ohio will stay blue downballot, don't expect to see an easy Brown win. Ohio is no longer a moderate or competitive state (and for people who bring up OH 2010, 2016, or DeWine's Re-election, the Democrats really didn't try in those races, especially when you remember DeWine was almost primaried out by more conservative opponents who, if united, likely would've beaten him, making him the first Governor since Abercombie (iirc) to be primaried). It's a populist right-wing state.

This is like saying a Pro-Sanders Candidate would lose in Oregon in an election where Sanders was the nominee.

2) You all said all the same things about J. D. Vance in 2022 and I remember it. You guys believed he was the weakest but then he legitimately won the race, surprising you all. The only reason he won by 7 and not by more was because he was 1) his primary was divisive, 2) Trump wasn't on the ballot, 3) 2022 seems to have been a weird aberration of a year that might not happen again for a long time.

Like I said, I am not saying a Moreno win is inevitable, but you all shouldn't be treating Brown's re-election to a 4th term as inevitable because your echochambers tells you Biden is secretly popular or he will have a magical surge and win 55 % of the NPV. I'm treating the Presidential Election and the big three (outside of WV for obvious reasons) as what they should be perceived as : absolute, bitter dogfights to the bitter end and this attitude will only end in the last two weeks of the race.

I reccomend you all take the same opinion.

You're analysing data you want to analyse frankly

In 2018, in a d+8 environnement, Brown won by 7 so he Can clearly overperform.

This race is a toss UP to me.

jim renacci gave up and it was a midterm compare to a presidential election.

I don't see why there should be a difference between "midterms" and "presidential year" regarding the overperformance.

[wnwnwn]

Maybe trying to show Moreno as an out of touch upper class man born in Colombia and raised in Florida would help a bit?

[RI]

Good chance Moreno will be the candidate where Dem interference in Republican primaries finally backfires on them.