UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[JimJamUK]

We might even see another Christian Wakeford at this rate.

The unprecedented number of Conservative MPs attacking the budget does raise the prospect of this happening (the UK has one of the strongest party whips in a Western democracy, you don’t publicly state you might vote against your own budget without very serious misgivings).   

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1577327686430511104

What does the projected constituency map look like now?  😂😂

Using the Electoral Calculus swingometer, a simple, unweighted average of the last 10 polls listed on Wikipedia has the Tories getting 37 seats.

No way in hell it ends up that extreme, but under 150 is probably plausible.

Yeah, I think that the SNP as Official Opposition numbers are honestly a pipe dream, but under 150 is definitely likely imo. I think that the numbers somewhat underestimate the Lib Dems seats, but I’ve been wrong about that before.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1577327686430511104

What does the projected constituency map look like now?  😂😂

Using the Electoral Calculus swingometer, a simple, unweighted average of the last 10 polls listed on Wikipedia has the Tories getting 37 seats.

No way in hell it ends up that extreme, but under 150 is probably plausible.

Yeah, I think that the SNP as Official Opposition numbers are honestly a pipe dream, but under 150 is definitely likely imo. I think that the numbers somewhat underestimate the Lib Dems seats, but I’ve been wrong about that before.

Lib Dems could potentially overperform depending on what happens with tactical voting, but I'm not quite well-informed enough on British politics to wager as to whether or not that is actually likely.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1577327686430511104

What does the projected constituency map look like now?  😂😂

Using the Electoral Calculus swingometer, a simple, unweighted average of the last 10 polls listed on Wikipedia has the Tories getting 37 seats.

No way in hell it ends up that extreme, but under 150 is probably plausible.

Yeah, I think that the SNP as Official Opposition numbers are honestly a pipe dream, but under 150 is definitely likely imo. I think that the numbers somewhat underestimate the Lib Dems seats, but I’ve been wrong about that before.

Lib Dems could potentially overperform depending on what happens with tactical voting, but I'm not quite well-informed enough on British politics to wager as to whether or not that is actually likely.

I know that by-elections are not nearly as much of a national barometer in the UK as special elections in the US, but if we read the entrails from recent by-elections, with a grain of salt or otherwise, it does seem like the Lib Dems are finally regaining credibility as a tactical "anyone but the Tories" option in rural Southern and Welsh seats without much of a natural Labour vote.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1577327686430511104

What does the projected constituency map look like now?  😂😂

Using the Electoral Calculus swingometer, a simple, unweighted average of the last 10 polls listed on Wikipedia has the Tories getting 37 seats.

No way in hell it ends up that extreme, but under 150 is probably plausible.

Yeah, I think that the SNP as Official Opposition numbers are honestly a pipe dream, but under 150 is definitely likely imo. I think that the numbers somewhat underestimate the Lib Dems seats, but I’ve been wrong about that before.

Lib Dems could potentially overperform depending on what happens with tactical voting, but I'm not quite well-informed enough on British politics to wager as to whether or not that is actually likely.

I know that by-elections are not nearly as much of a national barometer in the UK as special elections in the US, but if we read the entrails from recent by-elections, with a grain of salt or otherwise, it does seem like the Lib Dems are finally regaining credibility as a tactical "anyone but the Tories" option in rural Southern and Welsh seats without much of a natural Labour vote.

That’s what my thinking is as well. I don’t think they’d pick up much in Wales (maybe Brecon and Radnorshire under the current boundaries), but definitely southern England as a whole. The Red Wall polling is pretty clear that it’s going to bounce back to Labour at this point, but we could see the Blue Wall crumble and that will be interesting to see polling from there (I know a pollster or two have surveyed that area more thoroughly, but not recently).

[MABA 2020]

Obviously Truss will lead Tories over cliff edge if she remains leader so to have any chance of winning, need change in leader.  But do people here think Tories have even an outside chance of winning with a new leader or are they finished?  It is almost feeling like people have decide they are ready for a Labour government.

Truss clearly cannot win an election at this point, but I wouldn't completely rule out the idea of another new leader changing things. Definitely not likely but not impossible either. British politics is very volatile at the moment and there's still two years on the clock.

[Blair]

We’ve reached the hilarious ‘threaten backbenchers’ with an election stage- it was funny when Boris did it when he was 10% behind in the polls. It would be hilarious for Truss to do it when she was 25% behind in the middle of a cost of living crisis.

Obviously Truss will lead Tories over cliff edge if she remains leader so to have any chance of winning, need change in leader.  But do people here think Tories have even an outside chance of winning with a new leader or are they finished?  It is almost feeling like people have decide they are ready for a Labour government.

Truss clearly cannot win an election at this point, but I wouldn't completely rule out the idea of another new leader changing things. Definitely not likely but not impossible either. British politics is very volatile at the moment and there's still two years on the clock.

The reason I’m more and more sceptical is I thought Truss would recover the Tories poll ratings, stop the parliamentary in-fighting (for at least a year) and just generally sand the edges off- but it’s been a complete disaster because the disease is in the blood of the party. I mean you collective responsibility has broken down already!

[afleitch]

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1577327686430511104

What does the projected constituency map look like now?  😂😂

Using the Electoral Calculus swingometer, a simple, unweighted average of the last 10 polls listed on Wikipedia has the Tories getting 37 seats.

No way in hell it ends up that extreme, but under 150 is probably plausible.

Yeah, I think that the SNP as Official Opposition numbers are honestly a pipe dream, but under 150 is definitely likely imo. I think that the numbers somewhat underestimate the Lib Dems seats, but I’ve been wrong about that before.

Lib Dems could potentially overperform depending on what happens with tactical voting, but I'm not quite well-informed enough on British politics to wager as to whether or not that is actually likely.

I know that by-elections are not nearly as much of a national barometer in the UK as special elections in the US, but if we read the entrails from recent by-elections, with a grain of salt or otherwise, it does seem like the Lib Dems are finally regaining credibility as a tactical "anyone but the Tories" option in rural Southern and Welsh seats without much of a natural Labour vote.

That’s what my thinking is as well. I don’t think they’d pick up much in Wales (maybe Brecon and Radnorshire under the current boundaries), but definitely southern England as a whole. The Red Wall polling is pretty clear that it’s going to bounce back to Labour at this point, but we could see the Blue Wall crumble and that will be interesting to see polling from there (I know a pollster or two have surveyed that area more thoroughly, but not recently).

Despite a bad election in 2019, there were certainly quite positive trends for the Lib Dems in areas to the west of London. As a party they have been caught short by the last two elections being 'snap' and Brexit heavy. I think this time they are in contention in at least 15-20 seats higher than a simple setting would suggest if there was a snap election. If Truss goes to the very end and it's a rout? Easily more.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

The latest masterplan.

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1577573093110956033?s=20&t=9RwSahIu...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As an aside, I don't think there's ever been a Conference of a major British political party quite like this. Even the really bad Labour Conferences - even 2019, even more in the 1970s and 80s than I'd care to mention; yes, even the one where Trade Union General Secretaries accused each other of being JACKELS from the podium, live on on national television - were not this bad. This is a shitshow for All Time.

[JimJamUK]

As an aside, I don't think there's ever been a Conference of a major British political party quite like this. Even the really bad Labour Conferences - even 2019, even more in the 1970s and 80s than I'd care to mention; yes, even the one where Trade Union General Secretaries accused each other of being JACKELS from the podium, live on on national television - were not this bad. This is a shitshow for All Time.

Suella Braverman is like if one of the Labour activists currently relegated to The World Transformed somehow made their way on to the main conference stage.

One of the main points of a conference is to showcase your party, do the Tories really think that any of their current behaviour is making people want to vote for them?

[Torrain]

Truss' speech has been interrupted by anti-fracking Greenpeace protestors.

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1577604024664203266

[Torrain]

This is a petty point. But Truss is making a big deal about how she was the first PM to go to a comprehensive school, and made it into big applause line.

As someone who grew up very near Gordon Brown, I can assure you that his alma mater, Kirkcaldy High School, is a mid-level performing state school, and definitely a comprehensive, not a grammar school, as there are none up here.

Edit: it’s not as simple as that - see below.

[Blair]

Doesn’t she look tired?

Also she can’t read an autocue properly

[Antonio the Sixth]

Doesn’t she look tired?

[Pulaski]

I compared Truss to Douglas-Home when she ascended, but she's outdone him. I honestly don't think we've seen a Prime Minister in modern history manage to make their leadership basically untenable in such a short period of time. May was pretty quick thanks to the poisoned chalice she inherited, but Truss has blown her record to smithereens.

I understand Starmer's overtures to the centre-ground - it's hardly an innovation - but I hope as Prime Minister he'll keep true to his Labour roots.

[Pulaski]

We might even see another Christian Wakeford at this rate.

Rats leaving a sunken ship deserve no lifeboats. Let them drown.

[Torrain]

Truss has just finished up.

She had a whole section about how she's willing to make the hard choices, which rings just a tad hollow in the wake of the u-turns of the past 72 hours.

[CumbrianLefty]

This is a petty point. But Truss is making a big deal about how she was the first PM to go to a comprehensive school, and made it into big applause line.

As someone who grew up very near Gordon Brown, I can assure you that his alma mater, Kirkcaldy High School, is a mid-level performing state school, and definitely a comprehensive, not a grammar school, as there are none up here.

May as well apparently (slightly surprised me, but appears to be the case)

Truss also seems to think that Andy Street is the elected mayor of "Birmingham" - I'm sure the good folk of Wolverhampton, Walsall, West Bromwich and Dudley will be delighted

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Amazing lack of content, so much so that she kept repeating herself endlessly, even though it was not a long speech.

[Pulaski]

Amazing lack of content, so much so that she kept repeating herself endlessly, even though it was not a long speech.

Please tell me we got an update on those Beijing Pork markets.

[Torrain]

One other wee snag. She implicated Labour as part of the anti-growth coalition. But then in the next paragraph, she ended a section with the device “we need growth, growth, growth”.

Which Starmer used, verbatim, in a Liverpool speech back in July:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-62292281

[afleitch]

[Earthling]

Amazing lack of content, so much so that she kept repeating herself endlessly, even though it was not a long speech.

Well, there is not much there anyway. Don't expect any dept from Liz Truss. She is just very shallow.

[CumbrianLefty]

Did she decry anything as a "disgrace" this time?