UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[YL]

On the other housing issue being discussed, this is an interesting matter. I'm not opposed to there being a transfer of houses from the privately rented sector to the socially rented sector, but unless you stipulated security of tenancy for existing tenants then you would be asking for trouble. I would further add that if a significant expansion of the socially rented sector via housebuilding were to occur, then it would be essential to build and rent some of those houses for general needs and to not apply the usual points system in allocating them. That would cause annoyance in some left-wing (left-liberal? They all are) activist circles, but anything else would be highly risky both socially and politically. If you want a higher proportion of housing to be in the socially rented sector, then the 'residualization' of the sector since the 1980s would have to be at least partially reversed.

Isn’t starting to reverse that residualisation part of the aim here?

[YL]

Something interesting I've noticed was after an announcement by the Deputy Mayor for Housing Tom Copley about buying up existing private rent housing to become council housing was the scale of the backlash from the Y***BY crowd who seem to be organising more in politics; it really surprised me both in terms of the hostility and the tone of it.

It did make me realise I am actually a socialist (I think council housing is a good thing & authorities should use the means they have to get it) but showed something interesting about the YIMBY trend- I wondered how much of them are people who basically want to a party that is the UK version of the FDP.

Have you got any prominent examples of this hostility? On the face of it, the policy shouldn’t offend YIMBY (it’s not like it’s actually taking these houses out of the market).

Look at Tom Copley’s tweet over the weekend!

But who was objecting?  Random people on Twitter, or people I have actually heard of/should care about?

[Frodo]

Another one - TechneUK have the Tories on 22%. Worth noting that 22% is the lowest Techne have every found for the Tories, and has only been reached on one other occasion - the direct aftermath of the mini-budget.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1725313575214813606

So this is shaping up to be even worse for them than 1997 if poll results hold by the time of the next election.  Rumor has it the Conservatives might suffer the fate of the old Liberal Party of a century ago or so, and simply cease to exist.  

[EastAnglianLefty]

Something interesting I've noticed was after an announcement by the Deputy Mayor for Housing Tom Copley about buying up existing private rent housing to become council housing was the scale of the backlash from the Y***BY crowd who seem to be organising more in politics; it really surprised me both in terms of the hostility and the tone of it.

It did make me realise I am actually a socialist (I think council housing is a good thing & authorities should use the means they have to get it) but showed something interesting about the YIMBY trend- I wondered how much of them are people who basically want to a party that is the UK version of the FDP.

Some of the loudest YIMBY voices online are IEA types, whose enthusiasm for house-building is certainly genuine but nevertheless want to use the issue as a bait and switch. I'm not sure they're reflective of the wider movement, but they would definitely like to imply they are.

[CumbrianLefty]

So this is shaping up to be even worse for them than 1997 if poll results hold by the time of the next election.  Rumor has it the Conservatives might suffer the fate of the old Liberal Party of a century ago or so, and simply cease to exist.  

I don't think we should get ahead of ourselves here tbh.

To many of us, Tories are like cockroaches - ie basically unkillable

[TheTide]

So this is shaping up to be even worse for them than 1997 if poll results hold by the time of the next election.  Rumor has it the Conservatives might suffer the fate of the old Liberal Party of a century ago or so, and simply cease to exist.  

I don't think we should get ahead of ourselves here tbh.

To many of us, Tories are like cockroaches - ie basically unkillable

The Liberal Party of course also didn't cease to exist.

[Wiswylfen]

The Tories will be dead by 2050. Anything else is basically cope.

Extremely predictable (but contrary to the #narrative) poll on voting intention by supermarket. For non-UK posters, it’s basically a class graph, with the exception of the Co-op which despite being linked with Labour is average for them, but has the Greens on 15% and the Tories on only 9%!

https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1725997192723181782?s=61&t=I1DE8_cg7gm...

Somehow this has had some cut-through with people not deeply involved in this sort of thing. Had it brought up to me out of the blue yesterday at the dinner table.

[MillennialModerate]

Another one - TechneUK have the Tories on 22%. Worth noting that 22% is the lowest Techne have every found for the Tories, and has only been reached on one other occasion - the direct aftermath of the mini-budget.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1725313575214813606

So this is shaping up to be even worse for them than 1997 if poll results hold by the time of the next election.  Rumor has it the Conservatives might suffer the fate of the old Liberal Party of a century ago or so, and simply cease to exist.  

I mean those numbers would produce what - 450 for Labour and 120 for the Tories?

I just can’t see this actually playing out. Labour likely to win? Sure. But I think with seat totals similar to 2005 (except the LD seat total in ‘05 will be split between LD & SNP).

You’ll see some lifelong blue wall - one nation tories come home, the LibDems aren’t as much of a force so you likely won’t see many LD/Con marginals go for the LibDems and also Labour doesn’t have a guaranteed 50+ seats in Scotland they can rely on.

[Wiswylfen]

On the other housing issue being discussed, this is an interesting matter. I'm not opposed to there being a transfer of houses from the privately rented sector to the socially rented sector, but unless you stipulated security of tenancy for existing tenants then you would be asking for trouble. I would further add that if a significant expansion of the socially rented sector via housebuilding were to occur, then it would be essential to build and rent some of those houses for general needs and to not apply the usual points system in allocating them. That would cause annoyance in some left-wing (left-liberal? They all are) activist circles, but anything else would be highly risky both socially and politically. If you want a higher proportion of housing to be in the socially rented sector, then the 'residualization' of the sector since the 1980s would have to be at least partially reversed.

I don't see why. As someone who counts himself solidly within the left-liberal tradition (well, left-Liberal) I'd wholeheartedly support it. I have zero sympathy for everyone whining on Twitter who wants to kick people out of socially rented flats and sell them to themselves on the cheap though.

[LabourJersey]

The Tories will be dead by 2050. Anything else is basically cope.

Extremely predictable (but contrary to the #narrative) poll on voting intention by supermarket. For non-UK posters, it’s basically a class graph, with the exception of the Co-op which despite being linked with Labour is average for them, but has the Greens on 15% and the Tories on only 9%!

Somehow this has had some cut-through with people not deeply involved in this sort of thing. Had it brought up to me out of the blue yesterday at the dinner table.

Strongly doubt the bolded part there.

The Tories will evolve and re-invent themselves, but they won't cease to be unless the political system of the UK as we know it evolves into something completely different.

[ingemann]

The Tories will be dead by 2050. Anything else is basically cope.

Extremely predictable (but contrary to the #narrative) poll on voting intention by supermarket. For non-UK posters, it’s basically a class graph, with the exception of the Co-op which despite being linked with Labour is average for them, but has the Greens on 15% and the Tories on only 9%!

Somehow this has had some cut-through with people not deeply involved in this sort of thing. Had it brought up to me out of the blue yesterday at the dinner table.

Strongly doubt the bolded part there.

The Tories will evolve and re-invent themselves, but they won't cease to be unless the political system of the UK as we know it evolves into something completely different.

Honestly I think the Tories is somewhat stuck, maybe two election out of power will allow them to change, but honestly the risk is that another party takes over as the main opposition party.

[Thomas D]

So I know there's not much lower the Tories could go, But will people be more upset with them if they have the election at the latest possible date?

[Torrain]

So I know there's not much lower the Tories could go, But will people be more upset with them if they have the election at the latest possible date?

It would be a... brave choice to wait until January 2025.

Holding an election at the last minute means dissolving Parliament mid-December, canvassers knocking your door over Christmas, an icy election day at a time when pensioners (key Tory demographic) are barred indoors, all with the grim backdrop of the NHS creaking under the annual strain of the winter months.

Hence the talk about May or Autumn as the likely dates.

[CumbrianLefty]

December 2024 remains a plausible option if they are desperate, but hacking off voters even further by going over Christmas/New Year with an election campaign would indeed be reckless.

But its Sunak we are talking about. Who knows, he may decide "PM 2022-25" looks better on his CV.

[afleitch]

We are at the point where there isn't a 'good' time to hold a GE.

Anything past next October is probably a no, psychologically, given the various potential crises over winter and the fact 'things are f-cking expensive' isn't a helpful background to campaign in. The Presidential race will also impact public perception and will swamp the online discourse which the Tories need to whip up their base. The result/candidates might also effect a Tory leadership contest.

There's big May local and lower devolved, elections which are going to shape the summer. I don't think they'd do a GE on the same day.

My bet is on an April election, or a June election. The first might effectively 'spoil' the locals; keep them low turnout, or ready to explain away as an artifact of the GE. The second would be in response to them, perhaps in the slight hope the results might be underwhelming for Labour.

[Joe Republic]

I thought the rumor was Halloween?

[YL]

I thought the rumor was Halloween?

A rumour is Halloween, which is not quite the same thing.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Some people have suggested the Autumn statement implies a plan for a May election. Their arguments for this aren't necessarily good, but they also rely upon the idea that the Autumn statement will shift the polls. If it doesn't, we're probably still in for the long-haul.

[Blair]

A funny trend of the last 12 months has been breathless coverage of various events with ‘this will move the polls’ and then nope another 20 point labour leader.

[CumbrianLefty]

Some people have suggested the Autumn statement implies a plan for a May election. Their arguments for this aren't necessarily good, but they also rely upon the idea that the Autumn statement will shift the polls. If it doesn't, we're probably still in for the long-haul.

I think that is partly because of the announcement of "emergency legislation" (which makes it sound rather more exciting than it actually is) to implement the cut in NI come the New Year - meaning that it will show up in people's pay packets come the spring. But even leaving aside it isn't such a large amount of money overall, it could still be effectively wiped out by other things like higher energy bills.

[JimJamUK]

2022 net migration has been revised up to 745000, the highest on record. The government remains focused on Channel crossings/Rwanda, seeming unaware/unbothered at the fact many of their 2019 voters would find this somewhat problematic.

[IceAgeComing]

The one thing to keep an eye on for election date is Budget timing. The government still has to pass a Finance Bill early next year even if just to confirm the continuation of things like income tax for 2024-25; and that will happen before the next election. If there's a Budget at a 'normal' time (ie mid/late March) then that probably means they've committed to October as an election date; if they go for an earlier Budget then I suspect they've kept their options open for a substantive budget with some changes and enough Parliamentary team to get a Finance Bill through Parliament and to Royal Assent before a May election. I think that would more be indication of them leaving options open (and honestly if they wanted to go early without a Budget they could get an emergency Finance Bill that changes nothing but simply rolls over current tax rates through Parliament in a day as no one would oppose it) but if they've got tax cuts in the pocket they would totally give themselves a moment to do it.

[TheTide]

In terms of the polling, getting back to where they were when Johnson was toppled (~10% behind) is probably the kind of target they are aiming for. Johnson has been mocked for overstating the Tories' polling position at that time, but in fairness Sunak et al would be happy with it now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

'If I had a hammer...'

[TheTide]

'If I had a hammer...'

Some are trying to explain it away by saying that the woman told Sunak to use the side of it. Not sure that helps at all.