UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Torrain]

As I said, it’s bluster. He was just trying to talk tough, and painted himself into a rhetorical corner in the process.

It’s just notable because it’s the first time he’s answered questions about an early election with something other than “the last thing the British people want right now is an election.

I say early - I’m not sure any election held in the last 10-12 months of a parliament’s lifetime really qualifies as early, or snap.

[Mike88]

A snap election - or even the more feasibly speculated on May 2024 GE - is, regardless of bluster, not going to happen unless the Tories can get clearly above 30% in the polls. As things currently stand, they are if anything going in the opposite direction.

I think that depends. Call me naive, but I'm sure that the Tories deep down know that they have no chance of winning the next election. 14 years in power, Brexit fiasco, crisis, scandals, incompetence, asking for 5 more years will be quite courageous, to say the least.

So, at this point what do they have to lose? Plus, Reform is surging in the polls and some even show them as the 3rd largest party. The Tories could think that an election now or in the next few months, on the Rwanda issue, could bring these voters back to the Tories.

[JimJamUK]

I think that depends. Call me naive, but I'm sure that the Tories deep down know that they have no chance of winning the next election. 14 years in power, Brexit fiasco, crisis, scandals, incompetence, asking for 5 more years will be quite courageous, to say the least.

So, at this point what do they have to lose? Plus, Reform is surging in the polls and some even show them as the 3rd largest party. The Tories could think that an election now or in the next few months, on the Rwanda issue, could bring these voters back to the Tories.

They could bring some (possibly quite a lot of) voters back but not enough to actually win the election (which de facto requires the Tories to outpoll Labour). Delaying as long as possible gives them hope that the economic or other circumstances will improve enough that they could actually win. If they realise they’ve lost the next election, then the people currently in charge should prefer to stay in power a bit longer than going early to maybe save a few more seats.

[TheTide]

I think that depends. Call me naive, but I'm sure that the Tories deep down know that they have no chance of winning the next election. 14 years in power, Brexit fiasco, crisis, scandals, incompetence, asking for 5 more years will be quite courageous, to say the least.

So, at this point what do they have to lose? Plus, Reform is surging in the polls and some even show them as the 3rd largest party. The Tories could think that an election now or in the next few months, on the Rwanda issue, could bring these voters back to the Tories.

They could bring some (possibly quite a lot of) voters back but not enough to actually win the election (which de facto requires the Tories to outpoll Labour). Delaying as long as possible gives them hope that the economic or other circumstances will improve enough that they could actually win. If they realise they’ve lost the next election, then the people currently in charge should prefer to stay in power a bit longer than going early to maybe save a few more seats.

Not as long as January 2025 unless they are really stupid. A general election campaign during the midst of the NHS winter crisis (and thus making the NHS the dominant issue of the campaign - which party is likely to benefit from that?), combined with the general misery caused by the cold weather is asking for trouble.

[WD]

Never say never…
https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1725480359775608930
Bluster - but fascinated by the thought of Levido and Crosby unironically advising this.

Either way, a clip that fans of the Who Governs Britain/Stop the Boats snap election strategy, like Braverman and Simon Clarke will seize on, when the Lords dig their heels in - as they will.  

I’ll say Never.

Unless the migrant issue being blocked shows a sharp change in the polls - no chance Sunak is gonna call an election that most polls show being historically bad (I think they are exaggerated and Labour could win around 340-350 but nothing close to Blair)

I think the results in Selby, Tamsworth, and Mid Bedfordshire prove the whole “maybe polls are underestimating the Tories!!!” talking point is totally untethered to reality and just cope at this point. 20K~ majorities are not overturned by changes in turnout….

[CumbrianLefty]

The point is - most people (whatever their take on the issue) think the government has been a total failure on immigration. Its only a vote winner for them if people believe they will act on it effectively - and at the moment they don't. And if anything the Rwanda fuss is a deflection from this.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/TorstenBell/status/1725810524561043670

[JimJamUK]

Extremely predictable (but contrary to the #narrative) poll on voting intention by supermarket. For non-UK posters, it’s basically a class graph, with the exception of the Co-op which despite being linked with Labour is average for them, but has the Greens on 15% and the Tories on only 9%!

https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1725997192723181782?s=61&t=I1DE8_cg7gm...

[Silent Hunter]

https://twitter.com/TorstenBell/status/1725810524561043670

£250,000 is not an average price home in London. You're getting a one-bedroom flat for that at best.

[brucejoel99]

Never say never…
https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1725480359775608930

Yeah, I don't think Dodgy Dave agreed to emerge from his 7-year-long exile to political obscurity for just a few weeks or months at most of being back & in charge at the Foreign Office. Halloween 2024 is presumably still lined up as the date.

[TheTide]

Extremely predictable (but contrary to the #narrative) poll on voting intention by supermarket. For non-UK posters, it’s basically a class graph, with the exception of the Co-op which despite being linked with Labour is average for them, but has the Greens on 15% and the Tories on only 9%!

https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1725997192723181782?s=61&t=I1DE8_cg7gm...

I'd have expected Lidl to be further to the left on the graph but otherwise, yes. Having said that, my late maternal grandmother, who was very working-class and lived in council house throughout the time I knew her, was an M & S shopper. A guy I lived with at uni who was a big campaigner for the local Tories (and indeed his politics moved even further to the right, shall we say) was a regular shopper at the Co-Op, probably out of convenience as it was only two minutes from the house.

Incidentally, prices in Iceland seem to have entered 'remortgage your house' territory over the past few years. It would probably have once been the Labour stronghold of supermarkets. Come to think of it, my aforementioned grandmother used to shop there too.

[JimJamUK]

I'd have expected Lidl to be further to the left on the graph but otherwise, yes. Having said that, my late maternal grandmother, who was very working-class and lived in council house throughout the time I knew her, was an M & S shopper. A guy I lived with at uni who was a big campaigner for the local Tories (and indeed his politics moved even further to the right, shall we say) was a regular shopper at the Co-Op, probably out of convenience as it was only two minutes from the house.

Incidentally, prices in Iceland seem to have entered 'remortgage your house' territory over the past few years. It would probably have once been the Labour stronghold of supermarkets. Come to think of it, my aforementioned grandmother used to shop there too.

I’m a bit surprised M&S is so far to the right. It’s obviously the poshest supermarket polled along with Waitrose, but the latter has more of a southern and older customer base. I suppose it’s a difference in the type of middle class shopper (the Labour vote is similar, it’s the Lib Dem and Tory vote which noticeably changes).
Iceland strikes me as similar to Aldi or Lidl but without the middle class customer seeking a bargain.

[CumbrianLefty]

Never say never…
https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1725480359775608930

Yeah, I don't think Dodgy Dave agreed to emerge from his 7-year-long exile to political obscurity for just a few weeks or months at most of being back & in charge at the Foreign Office. Halloween 2024 is presumably still lined up as the date.

If you believe some reports, he actually asked about this before accepting Sunak's offer.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I presume the question asked is which supermarket do you use for your basics etc. Most people get something at Marks every now and again, but the number who use it as their regular grocery shop would be a) relatively few in number and b) very affluent as while they famously don't mark up absurdly, the quality is a lot higher and this has price implications. The odd low LibDem number there is almost certainly just a sampling artefact and the BES has always had a few issues with those.

[Blair]

As much as I think they have more hope in a bizarre random snap it doesn’t really work when you remember that Sunak and his new Foreign Sec won’t actually commit to leaving the EHCR- so it becomes an attempted issue election on what exactly?

Going after welfare claimants if the latest tabloid trash is anything to go by. I love having the sensible pragmatists behind the wheel once again.

Ha it's a funny thing where you see 'sensible people' foam at the mouth about benefits being too generous and people being workshy and it really proves my theory that once your political tropes get baked in it's very hard to change them- it isn't 2006! We've had regressive policy after regressive policy and as always the question to ask if why do we have so many working age adults unable to work- because they can't access adequate mental or physical healthcare!

Anecdote alert but I spoke to someone who works around this issue (from the DWP/Job centre side) and they said once you exclude the above (those with care duties, those with long-term health problems etc) a lot of those remaining out of work are frankly just difficult to get into employment e.g companies would not want to hire them, or they're not suited for work. You can take away their prescriptions etc but it won't change it.

[brucejoel99]

Never say never…
https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1725480359775608930

Yeah, I don't think Dodgy Dave agreed to emerge from his 7-year-long exile to political obscurity for just a few weeks or months at most of being back & in charge at the Foreign Office. Halloween 2024 is presumably still lined up as the date.

If you believe some reports, he actually asked about this before accepting Sunak's offer.

Oh interesting, link?

[Blair]

The supermarket question is very funny mostly because of Geography; I remember when the Aldi in Winchester open there were jokes about people taking their Waitrose bags in so they could hide their purchases when they walked around town after.

I think shopping has changed so much even in my lifetime; it use to be that every family went to one shop (often the cheapest/closest megastore) for a big weekend shop which for £100 could feed a family of four for a week. But now the growth of Aldi & Lidl and M&S and Waitrose changing their approach means as Al said people taken a pick and choose approach; especially as there's so much variation in quality (e.g some people hate the fruit and veg from the cheaper shops)

[EastAnglianLefty]

https://twitter.com/TorstenBell/status/1725810524561043670

£250,000 is not an average price home in London. You're getting a one-bedroom flat for that at best.

Yes, but the London housing market is sui generis. Even with our out of control housing market, there are relatively few towns in England where you can't buy a respectable family home for £250k and many more towns where it will buy you a big house in a nice neighbourhood.

[Blair]

Something interesting I've noticed was after an announcement by the Deputy Mayor for Housing Tom Copley about buying up existing private rent housing to become council housing was the scale of the backlash from the Y***BY crowd who seem to be organising more in politics; it really surprised me both in terms of the hostility and the tone of it.

It did make me realise I am actually a socialist (I think council housing is a good thing & authorities should use the means they have to get it) but showed something interesting about the YIMBY trend- I wondered how much of them are people who basically want to a party that is the UK version of the FDP.

[Estrella]

Something interesting I've noticed was after an announcement by the Deputy Mayor for Housing Tom Copley about buying up existing private rent housing to become council housing was the scale of the backlash from the Y***BY crowd who seem to be organising more in politics; it really surprised me both in terms of the hostility and the tone of it.

It did make me realise I am actually a socialist (I think council housing is a good thing & authorities should use the means they have to get it) but showed something interesting about the YIMBY trend- I wondered how much of them are people who basically want to a party that is the UK version of the FDP.

I mean, they have a point. The housing crisis is affecting basically everyone, not just those who are eligible for a council house. Taking homes from the rental market instead of building new ones will help the poorest, but it won't cost much less and will hurt everyone else in the process. Ironically for a Labour policy, this is the sort of Cameronite austerity that's fine-tuned make sure you can say you've done something when in fact you've only made things worse, and didn't even save that much money.

[JimJamUK]

Something interesting I've noticed was after an announcement by the Deputy Mayor for Housing Tom Copley about buying up existing private rent housing to become council housing was the scale of the backlash from the Y***BY crowd who seem to be organising more in politics; it really surprised me both in terms of the hostility and the tone of it.

It did make me realise I am actually a socialist (I think council housing is a good thing & authorities should use the means they have to get it) but showed something interesting about the YIMBY trend- I wondered how much of them are people who basically want to a party that is the UK version of the FDP.

Have you got any prominent examples of this hostility? On the face of it, the policy shouldn’t offend YIMBY (it’s not like it’s actually taking these houses out of the market).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, but the London housing market is sui generis. Even with our out of control housing market, there are relatively few towns in England where you can't buy a respectable family home for £250k and many more towns where it will buy you a big house in a nice neighbourhood.

A sizeable detached house in the valley with a big garden sold recently for about £250,000.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

On the other housing issue being discussed, this is an interesting matter. I'm not opposed to there being a transfer of houses from the privately rented sector to the socially rented sector, but unless you stipulated security of tenancy for existing tenants then you would be asking for trouble. I would further add that if a significant expansion of the socially rented sector via housebuilding were to occur, then it would be essential to build and rent some of those houses for general needs and to not apply the usual points system in allocating them. That would cause annoyance in some left-wing (left-liberal? They all are) activist circles, but anything else would be highly risky both socially and politically. If you want a higher proportion of housing to be in the socially rented sector, then the 'residualization' of the sector since the 1980s would have to be at least partially reversed.

[Blair]

Something interesting I've noticed was after an announcement by the Deputy Mayor for Housing Tom Copley about buying up existing private rent housing to become council housing was the scale of the backlash from the Y***BY crowd who seem to be organising more in politics; it really surprised me both in terms of the hostility and the tone of it.

It did make me realise I am actually a socialist (I think council housing is a good thing & authorities should use the means they have to get it) but showed something interesting about the YIMBY trend- I wondered how much of them are people who basically want to a party that is the UK version of the FDP.

I mean, they have a point. The housing crisis is affecting basically everyone, not just those who are eligible for a council house. Taking homes from the rental market instead of building new ones will help the poorest, but it won't cost much less and will hurt everyone else in the process. Ironically for a Labour policy, this is the sort of Cameronite austerity that's fine-tuned make sure you can say you've done something when in fact you've only made things worse, and didn't even save that much money.

There’s a specific problem in London that it’s harder to build traditional family homes; the few big developers focus on flats at scale due to a number of reasons- the planning system, the ability to sell these off book abroad (e.g before they’re built) and the lack of space in London.

I favour it as a system that needs to go alongside house building

[Blair]

Something interesting I've noticed was after an announcement by the Deputy Mayor for Housing Tom Copley about buying up existing private rent housing to become council housing was the scale of the backlash from the Y***BY crowd who seem to be organising more in politics; it really surprised me both in terms of the hostility and the tone of it.

It did make me realise I am actually a socialist (I think council housing is a good thing & authorities should use the means they have to get it) but showed something interesting about the YIMBY trend- I wondered how much of them are people who basically want to a party that is the UK version of the FDP.

Have you got any prominent examples of this hostility? On the face of it, the policy shouldn’t offend YIMBY (it’s not like it’s actually taking these houses out of the market).

Look at Tom Copley’s tweet over the weekend!