UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Coldstream]

For our Labour people, was Lee Anderson always this right wing when in Labour or has he got the zeal of a convert?

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mp-says-economy-only-28136853

I cannot comment specifically on Lee Anderson- but his type really wouldn't be that unique among local councillors especially in areas such as Ashfield where Labour were virtually the only meal ticket & where the opposition were the Lib Dems (and later an independent residents group)

There use to be a breed of CLP activists & local councillors in the North-East who considered the Conservatives soft on social issues while still being considered as being on the 'left' of Labour.

Yeah just like how until very recently (or at least the late 80s) posh people joined the Tories despite being centrist or progressive, working class people tended to join the Labour Party despite how reactionary they were. People like Anderson were pretty common across the midlands, North & Scotland until very recently. Brexit, Corbyn and the independence debate in Scotland largely resulted in them being culled - but there are no doubt some still around.

Anderson in particular was thrown out for being racist to Romanis, although that’s not exactly unique in his part of the world even for the Labour Party now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

People with the views that Anderson espouses now were never common in Labour Party circles, but there has always been a type of Labour politician who ends up adopting them after a defection, one often prefigured by a slow rightwards creep for many years: John Freeman, Alf Robens, Woodrow Wyatt and Desmond Donnelly would be classic examples. I very much doubt that Anderson will be the last notable case.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

When she was originally selected her mother agreed to campaign for her but her father refused. I suspect he ordinarily votes for candidates to the left of Labour - Leeds has historically been reasonably strong for the alphabet left.

Yes, this makes sense. Reading between the lines of what has been said of his politics, he appears to be either a Trot or a Tankie, whereas her mother is - or at least was - a Liberal Democrat: stood as a paper candidate for them in a hopeless ward about twenty years ago. They are divorced.

Engineering and Maths professors have a weird tendency to gravitate towards fringe politics. I don't understand why.

[Estrella]

When she was originally selected her mother agreed to campaign for her but her father refused. I suspect he ordinarily votes for candidates to the left of Labour - Leeds has historically been reasonably strong for the alphabet left.

Yes, this makes sense. Reading between the lines of what has been said of his politics, he appears to be either a Trot or a Tankie, whereas her mother is - or at least was - a Liberal Democrat: stood as a paper candidate for them in a hopeless ward about twenty years ago. They are divorced.

Engineering and Maths professors have a weird tendency to gravitate towards fringe politics. I don't understand why.

Probably for the same reasons the sorts of people who visit this forum have a tendency to gravitate towards fringe politics.

[Wiswylfen]

For our Labour people, was Lee Anderson always this right wing when in Labour or has he got the zeal of a convert?

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mp-says-economy-only-28136853

I cannot comment specifically on Lee Anderson- but his type really wouldn't be that unique among local councillors especially in areas such as Ashfield where Labour were virtually the only meal ticket & where the opposition were the Lib Dems (and later an independent residents group)

There use to be a breed of CLP activists & local councillors in the North-East who considered the Conservatives soft on social issues while still being considered as being on the 'left' of Labour.

Largely Catholic in origin and by no means gone: Mary Glindon is MP for North Tyneside, though not on the left.

[Torrain]

Grant Shapps has come out against the 45% tax rate abolition in a BBC interview. States he’s pretty sure it won’t have the votes to pass the Commons, and that it’s an inappropriate policy under the current circumstances.

Quite noteworthy, given that Shapps built his reputation on being a good footsoldier for the party, and defended Johnson’s government to the hilt on the Sunday shows most weeks.

The former transport secretary warned Ms Truss not to have a "tin ear" to voters' concerns about rising living costs and to do a U-turn as soon as possible.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63110541.amp

[soundchaser]

The 45% rate abolition getting defeated would have to be the most ignominious defeat for a new prime minister…ever?

[Don Vito Corleone]

What are chances Boris Johnson returns as PM?  I am pretty sure if Boris Johnson was PM, party wouldn't be doing as badly.  Trailing sure, but not by 30 points.

I'd say about -10%, maybe less. I'm by no means any sort of authority on British politics, but I would think Sunak is probably the most likely leader if Truss gets the boot.

Yes, it's too soon for Boris, though you are a fool if you think he isn't rebuilding his machine for round 2. His ideal "restoration" would be after a Tory electoral loss, where he can play towards electoral hindsight. Its not hard now to imagine Tories see 2019 in rose colored glasses, and also seeing Boris's issues as forgivable when matched against recency bias, but he lacks the ability to prove all doubters as fools and the ability to overhaul the party to prevent future disloyalties - both things that would be available in the aftermath of any type of Labour victory.

Issue with a Boris restoration after a defeat is he'd lose his seat in almost any election resulting in a Labour government, nevermind the sort of cataclysm the Tories face now. Of course, I suppose he could move to a safer seat, but I'm not sure how likely that is.

[Zinneke]

When she was originally selected her mother agreed to campaign for her but her father refused. I suspect he ordinarily votes for candidates to the left of Labour - Leeds has historically been reasonably strong for the alphabet left.

Yes, this makes sense. Reading between the lines of what has been said of his politics, he appears to be either a Trot or a Tankie, whereas her mother is - or at least was - a Liberal Democrat: stood as a paper candidate for them in a hopeless ward about twenty years ago. They are divorced.

Engineering and Maths professors have a weird tendency to gravitate towards fringe politics. I don't understand why.

Probably for the same reasons the sorts of people who visit this forum have a tendency to gravitate towards fringe politics.

No that's because we're smart

[If my soul was made of stone]

What are chances Boris Johnson returns as PM?  I am pretty sure if Boris Johnson was PM, party wouldn't be doing as badly.  Trailing sure, but not by 30 points.

I'd say about -10%, maybe less. I'm by no means any sort of authority on British politics, but I would think Sunak is probably the most likely leader if Truss gets the boot.

Yes, it's too soon for Boris, though you are a fool if you think he isn't rebuilding his machine for round 2. His ideal "restoration" would be after a Tory electoral loss, where he can play towards electoral hindsight. Its not hard now to imagine Tories see 2019 in rose colored glasses, and also seeing Boris's issues as forgivable when matched against recency bias, but he lacks the ability to prove all doubters as fools and the ability to overhaul the party to prevent future disloyalties - both things that would be available in the aftermath of any type of Labour victory.

Issue with a Boris restoration after a defeat is he'd lose his seat in almost any election resulting in a Labour government, nevermind the sort of cataclysm the Tories face now. Of course, I suppose he could move to a safer seat, but I'm not sure how likely that is.

Boris Johnson (Con–Tiverton and Honiton) just imo

[Torrain]

There's now uncertainty over when (or if) a vote will now be held on abolishing the 45% tax rate. The Telegraph is reporting that the vote will be pushed back until after the November statement from Kwarteng - but I think we'll probably get a better idea about the latest development from the Chancellor's media round tomorrow.  

As of this evening we have a minimum of 14 declared rebels - around 40% of the required MPs to defeat the bill.

• Robert Largan
• James Cartlidge
• Steve Double
• Sir Charles Walker
• Julian Smith
• Simon Hoare
• Michael Gove
• Mel Stride
• Damian Green
• Richard Graham
• Steve Brine
• Danny Kruger
• Maria Caulfield
• Grant Shapps

[Joe Republic]

Issue with a Boris restoration after a defeat is he'd lose his seat in almost any election resulting in a Labour government, nevermind the sort of cataclysm the Tories face now. Of course, I suppose he could move to a safer seat, but I'm not sure how likely that is.

Hilariously, his previous seat prior to becoming Mayor of London is projected to stay blue even in that wonderful LABOR NUT map back on page 24.  But alas, it's not his any more.

[Pericles]

Issue with a Boris restoration after a defeat is he'd lose his seat in almost any election resulting in a Labour government, nevermind the sort of cataclysm the Tories face now. Of course, I suppose he could move to a safer seat, but I'm not sure how likely that is.

Hilariously, his previous seat prior to becoming Mayor of London is projected to stay blue even in that wonderful LABOR NUT map back on page 24.

It's a Remain-voting seat where the LibDem vote surged by 16% in 2019, it would be a reach seat (Con+24%) but don't be too surprised if it flips. David Cameron's old seat is similar actually.

[Oryxslayer]

What are chances Boris Johnson returns as PM?  I am pretty sure if Boris Johnson was PM, party wouldn't be doing as badly.  Trailing sure, but not by 30 points.

I'd say about -10%, maybe less. I'm by no means any sort of authority on British politics, but I would think Sunak is probably the most likely leader if Truss gets the boot.

Yes, it's too soon for Boris, though you are a fool if you think he isn't rebuilding his machine for round 2. His ideal "restoration" would be after a Tory electoral loss, where he can play towards electoral hindsight. Its not hard now to imagine Tories see 2019 in rose colored glasses, and also seeing Boris's issues as forgivable when matched against recency bias, but he lacks the ability to prove all doubters as fools and the ability to overhaul the party to prevent future disloyalties - both things that would be available in the aftermath of any type of Labour victory.

Issue with a Boris restoration after a defeat is he'd lose his seat in almost any election resulting in a Labour government, nevermind the sort of cataclysm the Tories face now. Of course, I suppose he could move to a safer seat, but I'm not sure how likely that is.

Boris Johnson (Con–Tiverton and Honiton) just imo

That particular seat would be a lol moment, but yes, the chatter a while back seemed to suggest that he would flee from the coming storm to some safe seat since  Uxbridge would likely be part of any Labour government. Of course things have gotten just a bit worse for the Tories since that prior rumor.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Issue with a Boris restoration after a defeat is he'd lose his seat in almost any election resulting in a Labour government, nevermind the sort of cataclysm the Tories face now. Of course, I suppose he could move to a safer seat, but I'm not sure how likely that is.

Hilariously, his previous seat prior to becoming Mayor of London is projected to stay blue even in that wonderful LABOR NUT map back on page 24.

It's a Remain-voting seat where the LibDem vote surged by 16% in 2019, it would be a reach seat (Con+24%) but don't be too surprised if it flips. David Cameron's old seat is similar actually.

Or, you know, the Lib Dems could flip them...

[Pericles]

Issue with a Boris restoration after a defeat is he'd lose his seat in almost any election resulting in a Labour government, nevermind the sort of cataclysm the Tories face now. Of course, I suppose he could move to a safer seat, but I'm not sure how likely that is.

Hilariously, his previous seat prior to becoming Mayor of London is projected to stay blue even in that wonderful LABOR NUT map back on page 24.

It's a Remain-voting seat where the LibDem vote surged by 16% in 2019, it would be a reach seat (Con+24%) but don't be too surprised if it flips. David Cameron's old seat is similar actually.

Or, you know, the Lib Dems could flip them...

That's what I meant.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

There's now uncertainty over when (or if) a vote will now be held on abolishing the 45% tax rate. The Telegraph is reporting that the vote will be pushed back until after the November statement from Kwarteng - but I think we'll probably get a better idea about the latest development from the Chancellor's media round tomorrow.  

As of this evening we have a minimum of 14 declared rebels - around 40% of the required MPs to defeat the bill.

• Robert Largan
• James Cartlidge
• Steve Double
• Sir Charles Walker
• Julian Smith
• Simon Hoare
• Michael Gove
• Mel Stride
• Damian Green
• Richard Graham
• Steve Brine
• Danny Kruger
• Maria Caulfield
• Grant Shapps

Not exactly a usual-suspects list of wets (or even "remoaners"), which should tell you something in and of itself.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

It's like they want to replicate Thursday's YouGov poll at the next GE:

https://twitter.com/pippacrerar/status/1576262633921351680

Ah you just beat me to it... Absolutely barmy story. Kwarteng swigging champagne with stockbrokers while the pound crashed.

And talking like the crassest variety of American "construction company founder or semiretired software engineer who had a windfall IPO in the nineties, ran directly for the Senate or a governorship fifteen years later, and won" while he does it. "A great day for freedom"? Isn't this guy supposed to be some kind of Oxbridge historian?

Even Gary Johnson is more eloquent.

[Joe Republic]

Kwarteng is backing down

[Blair]

Hilarious after a week of outriders saying the tax cut was needed and a sign of how Truss would ‘do the unpopular things’.

If she can’t do this how will she pass fracking or planning reform?

Has completely destroyed her authority but I guess at least they didn’t wait around

[Torrain]

The finger-pointing has commenced.

Penny Mordaunt at a late night conference event: “Our policy is great but our comms is sh*t”.

Pippa Crerar: Tory insiders claim that it was, in fact,  Treasury chief sec Chris Philp who had the idea to cut the 45p tax rate, presenting Truss and Kwarteng with a paper on it during leadership campaign.

[Torrain]

From Radio 4 this morning:

Nick Robinson: “Chancellor, you say you’ve listened, you didn’t listen over the past two weeks!”
Kwarteng: “Well actually it was nine days…”

It didn’t get any better after that either. He couldn’t provide answers on why the OBR was sidelined, or why he fired Tom Scholar.

[Pericles]

The Tories continue their long tradition of U-turns, this is even more damaging than Theresa May and the dementia tax.

[YL]

So that's what's left of Truss and Kwarteng's authority gone, then.  Though the Commons defeat which was looking increasingly likely would have been even more humiliating.

[TheTide]

Truss is used to being humiliated.