UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lol at the Palace now going to war with Truss.

What’s happened? Struggling to find anything.

I think he’s referring to Truss telling the King not to deliver a speech at COP27.

[MaxQue]

Lol at the Palace now going to war with Truss.

What’s happened? Struggling to find anything.

I think he’s referring to Truss telling the King not to deliver a speech at COP27.

And he is being weak and accepts.

[JimJamUK]

Opinium have 23% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to Labour! (which under their de facto projection methodology is only a 19% Labour lead)

[icc]

Lol at the Palace now going to war with Truss.

What’s happened? Struggling to find anything.

I think he’s referring to Truss telling the King not to deliver a speech at COP27.

And he is being weak and accepts.

The usual bad faith nonsense from you I see. He has no choice given his constitutional role.

[MABA 2020]

Lol at the Palace now going to war with Truss.

What’s happened? Struggling to find anything.

I think he’s referring to Truss telling the King not to deliver a speech at COP27.

If I was him I wouldn't cancel the flight, Truss might be gone by November

[Torrain]

Opinium have 23% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to Labour! (which under their de facto projection methodology is only a 19% Labour lead)

It's a huge shift - not only is it the largest Labour lead under the current Opinium methodology, it's a huge shift in position from the last poll on Sept 3rd. We're currently looking at a 47% Lab, 27% Tory split. In the prior poll it was 38% Lab, 34% Tory.

Source article for numbers and graphic: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/01/voters-abandon-tories-as-faith-in-economic-competence-dives

[YL]

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1575894055636160515?s=20&t=E-Yan0OF...

Would this constitute loss of supply or is this too minor an issue to meet that standard?

The Callaghan government was defeated on two amendments to its Finance Bill in May 1978. So there is precedent for it not being a confidence matter, or even a resigning matter for the Chancellor.

[brucejoel99]

Lol at the Palace now going to war with Truss.

What’s happened? Struggling to find anything.

I think he’s referring to Truss telling the King not to deliver a speech at COP27.

And the Palace is fighting back in the papers, hence going to war:

https://twitter.com/andrew_adonis/status/1576310424890331137
Not to say that I called it, but…

Don't have much nice to say so I won't say anything. Hopefully Prince Charles will be an awful king, discrediting the monarchy and leading to its dissolution.

Hopefully he'll get away with being the based Labour King that the British House of Cards promised us he'd be.

Now, you might very well think that Liz Truss is no Francis Urquhart, but I couldn't possibly comment.

[MaxQue]

Lol at the Palace now going to war with Truss.

What’s happened? Struggling to find anything.

I think he’s referring to Truss telling the King not to deliver a speech at COP27.

And he is being weak and accepts.

The usual bad faith nonsense from you I see. He has no choice given his constitutional role.

He has no choice to sign bills and so on, but she doesn't control where he goes or who he is allowed to talk to.

[Joe Republic]

https://twitter.com/kwasikwarteng/status/1576133060411523072?s=21&t=l3T7MosO...


😬😬😬

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/kwasikwarteng/status/1576133060411523072?s=21&t=l3T7MosOQ6_bPxKe0jUh8A

😬😬😬

It's the Black History Month banner that really elevates this...

[brucejoel99]

It's like they want to replicate Thursday's YouGov poll at the next GE:

https://twitter.com/pippacrerar/status/1576262633921351680

[Torrain]

The Times has a report on a champagne dinner that Kwarteng held with hedge-fund managers, right after the announcement of the mini-budget. Even if this isn't unethical and a tad dubious (and I feel like pre-empting policy with these guys is skirting dangerously close to a couple of lines), it's political malfeasance. I mean, this is an entire party political broadcast waiting to be written.

Kwasi Kwarteng attended a private champagne reception hours after delivering his mini-budget where hedge fund managers who would gain from a crash in the pound egged him on to commit to his plans.

The disclosure raises questions about Kwarteng’s political judgment. It will also raise concern that the event informed his decision to announce plans for even bigger tax cuts despite the market’s negative reaction to his initial plans.

After the reception on Friday, at least two prominent hedge fund bosses told City associates that Kwarteng was “a useful idiot”. A senior Tory who advises business leaders said the phrase was in widespread circulation.

Law is worth about £750 million and has donated £3.6 million to the Tories since 2004. He has acknowledged taking short positions on the pound over recent years, meaning he has profited from the currency’s decline in value.

Two sources say Kwarteng described the Friday as a “great day for freedom”. A third said: “He was high on adrenaline. His big thing was: ‘Look, we’re not going to do stuff incrementally. We really believe in this stuff and that’s what we’re going to do.’ ”

Kwarteng is also said to have warned those present of austerity-style budget cuts to come. A source said: “He wanted to give an unadulterated message of ‘growth, growth, growth’, and that’s why he didn’t talk about savings, because otherwise the [news] agenda would have been all about savings — ‘where will you cut? What will you cut? Blah blah blah’ — they’re fully aware they have to make savings.”

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What is holding back the Conservatives from getting rid of her? She’s been a clear, unmitigated disaster from the start and there’s no reason to believe she’ll get any better at the job. Literally any of the other contenders from the leadership contest (with the exception of Braverman and Badenoch) would be an improvement.

[Torrain]

It's like they want to replicate Thursday's YouGov poll at the next GE:

https://twitter.com/pippacrerar/status/1576262633921351680

Ah you just beat me to it... Absolutely barmy story. Kwarteng swigging champagne with stockbrokers while the pound crashed.

It's the sort of thing I used to hear student activists jokingly say about the Tories back in my undergrad days in Glasgow - not a news story from the Times, which is typically quite friendly to the Conservatives.

[mileslunn]

What are chances Boris Johnson returns as PM?  I am pretty sure if Boris Johnson was PM, party wouldn't be doing as badly.  Trailing sure, but not by 30 points.

[brucejoel99]

Sage Brandon:

https://twitter.com/markamesexiled/status/1576266286564511744

[Not Me, Us]

What are chances Boris Johnson returns as PM?  I am pretty sure if Boris Johnson was PM, party wouldn't be doing as badly.  Trailing sure, but not by 30 points.

I'd say about -10%, maybe less. I'm by no means any sort of authority on British politics, but I would think Sunak is probably the most likely leader if Truss gets the boot.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1575894055636160515?s=20&t=E-Yan0OF...

Would this constitute loss of supply or is this too minor an issue to meet that standard?

The Callaghan government was defeated on two amendments to its Finance Bill in May 1978. So there is precedent for it not being a confidence matter, or even a resigning matter for the Chancellor.

Okay, that's what I would have guessed, but I didn't have enough familiarity with the precedents to be sure. Thanks.

[Oryxslayer]

What are chances Boris Johnson returns as PM?  I am pretty sure if Boris Johnson was PM, party wouldn't be doing as badly.  Trailing sure, but not by 30 points.

I'd say about -10%, maybe less. I'm by no means any sort of authority on British politics, but I would think Sunak is probably the most likely leader if Truss gets the boot.

Yes, it's too soon for Boris, though you are a fool if you think he isn't rebuilding his machine for round 2. His ideal "restoration" would be after a Tory electoral loss, where he can play towards electoral hindsight. Its not hard now to imagine Tories see 2019 in rose colored glasses, and also seeing Boris's issues as forgivable when matched against recency bias, but he lacks the ability to prove all doubters as fools and the ability to overhaul the party to prevent future disloyalties - both things that would be available in the aftermath of any type of Labour victory.

[morgieb]

Opinium have 23% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to Labour! (which under their de facto projection methodology is only a 19% Labour lead)

It's a huge shift - not only is it the largest Labour lead under the current Opinium methodology, it's a huge shift in position from the last poll on Sept 3rd. We're currently looking at a 47% Lab, 27% Tory split. In the prior poll it was 38% Lab, 34% Tory.

Source article for numbers and graphic: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/01/voters-abandon-tories-as-faith-in-economic-competence-dives

Which given Opinium's methodology is meant to be rosy for the Tories.....yikes.

Semi-serious question - can the Tories genuinely recover from such a bad loss? Especially given it appears their support for anyone under the age of 50 at this point has to be close to non-existant?

[Torrain]

Semi-serious question - can the Tories genuinely recover from such a bad loss? Especially given it appears their support for anyone under the age of 50 at this point has to be close to non-existant?

In 1997 the Tories won only 30% of the vote, and 165 seats (to Labour’s 418). They spent 13 years in the wilderness, but they made their way back to power. It’s very hard to actually kill one of the big three parties (see the Lib Dems, who still have 14 MPs and 2,500 local councillors - around 13% of all UK council seats).

The Conservatives also have deep roots as a party of local government. They run dozens of councils, retain the most councillors of any party, and form the Primary Opposition in the devolved legislatures of both Scotland and Wales. Short of widespread defections, that foothold in local government provides the party with a legion of potential candidates, and a deep network of canvasser, fundraisers and general volunteers.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Even after the biggest landslide, when everything seems most hopeless, there is no majority on earth so large that it necessarily takes 2 or 3 cycles to dislodge.

Belated, but Campbell Newman says hi.

[Torrain]

Truss is being interviewed by Laura Kuenssberg. Notably:

• Truss has doubled down on the 45% tax rate abolition, the part of the mini-budget most likely to face rebellion in the Commons.
• Admits she had issues rolling out the tax cuts, but refuses to take any responsibility for the impact of the tax cut announcement on mortgages and the pound.
• Refuses to publish the OBR draft.
• Says that the 45% rate was only drafted by Kwarteng - they didn’t discuss the policy with the full cabinet. Her phrasing “it was the chancellor’s decision” is the first time I’ve seen Truss look like she’s throwing Kwarteng under the bus.
• When presented with a question about a constituent with soaring mortgage payments, Truss blames the BofE raising interest rates, and refused again to admit any culpability.
• Kuenssberg basically accused Truss of acting without a mandate, and Truss shrugged and said that 2019 voters wanted economic growth, so she could basically do what she wanted.

Kuenssberg then pivoted to a panel discussion about Truss’s comments. Michael Gove went first, and said he couldn’t support the current financial package in the Commons. Just a bit of a car crash.

[CumbrianLefty]

Truss is being interviewed by Laura Kuenssberg. Notably:

• Truss has doubled down on the 45% tax rate abolition, the part of the mini-budget most likely to face rebellion in the Commons.
• Admits she had issues rolling out the tax cuts, but refuses to take any responsibility for the impact of the tax cut announcement on mortgages and the pound.
• Refuses to publish the OBR draft.
• Says that the 45% rate was only drafted by Kwarteng - they didn’t discuss the policy with the full cabinet. Her phrasing “it was the chancellor’s decision” is the first time I’ve seen Truss look like she’s throwing Kwarteng under the bus.
• When presented with a question about a constituent with soaring mortgage payments, Truss blames the BofE raising interest rates, and refused again to admit any culpability.
• Kuenssberg basically accused Truss of acting without a mandate, and Truss shrugged and said that 2019 voters wanted economic growth, so she could basically do what she wanted.

Kuenssberg then pivoted to a panel discussion about Truss’s comments. Michael Gove went first, and said he couldn’t support the current financial package in the Commons. Just a bit of a car crash.

Yes, pretty much all "2019 voters" wanted economic growth. Not just those who voted Conservative.

Only a small minority of crankish "deep greens" are actually anti-growth.

And the media still needs to stop uncritically portraying whatever barmy proposals Truss comes out with as a "dash for growth" and examine if, on the most generous assumptions, they will actually help towards their stated aim. Many are either irrelevant or actually harmful.