What points in Trump's presidency would he have beaten Biden?
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  What points in Trump's presidency would he have beaten Biden?
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Author Topic: What points in Trump's presidency would he have beaten Biden?  (Read 5932 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: September 03, 2022, 07:15:10 PM »

At what points in Trump's presidency would he have beaten Biden?
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #1 on: September 03, 2022, 09:20:11 PM »

Anytime except 'Rona, Impeachment, and the end of 2017.
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TwinGeeks99
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« Reply #2 on: September 04, 2022, 06:18:53 PM »

Perhaps just after the first impeachment. Many people saw it as pure theater and a foregone conclusion, since the Republicans still controlled the Senate.
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dw93
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« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2022, 08:08:53 PM »

I'd probably say around May 2019 till May of 2020 were the points in his Presidency where he had the best odds at a 2nd term. I would say the end of 2017 and  post May 2020 were the points in his Presidency where his odds were the lowest.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #4 on: September 06, 2022, 08:16:31 PM »

Anytime except 'Rona, Impeachment, and the end of 2017.

I need to disagree about impeachment. His approval ratings went up as a result of impeachment, and only came down once COVID really took hold in the States and it became clear he wasn't going to do anything about it.
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2022, 05:58:11 PM »

Early 2020, pre COVID

The Democrats were looking like fools between impeachment and the messy primary.

I remember polls showed Trump strongly ahead in Florida and Ohio, with states like WI and PA as tossups. Considering polls always underestimate him, Trump probably would have won a larger victory than 2016.
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EternalOptimistPopulist
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« Reply #6 on: September 24, 2022, 09:49:06 PM »

November 2017




November 2018



November 2019



February-May 2020


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Orser67
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« Reply #7 on: September 28, 2022, 04:05:33 PM »

The first quarter of 2017 and the onset of coronavirus in April 2020. I can also respect the argument for the months immediately before COVID hit, but I think that's about it.
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #8 on: September 29, 2022, 02:23:35 PM »

Early 2017 and then 2019 through late spring 2020.
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sg0508
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« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2022, 09:22:30 PM »

After the midterms and then pre-covid, followed by a brief period after the RNC when BLM and other social issues started dogging the Democrats a bit too much
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SWE
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« Reply #10 on: November 10, 2022, 11:19:10 PM »

Never
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MABA 2020
MakeAmericaBritishAgain
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« Reply #11 on: November 15, 2022, 06:53:55 PM »

In retrospect, I don't think he would've beaten Trump before 2020
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oldtimer
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« Reply #12 on: November 15, 2022, 08:23:26 PM »

December 2019.

It was obvious by January that Trump messed up when he refused to close the border to prevent the disease from spreading.

The bleach thing on national TV was the final nail, I stuck 1000 bucks on Biden to win the day after.
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #13 on: February 08, 2023, 11:02:10 PM »

November 2017




November 2018



November 2019



February-May 2020



Very interesting and well thought out maps.

Why do you have Trump winning WI and PA in 2018? Democratic incumbents easily won senate races in these two states. Would they not carry Biden to the finish line?
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #14 on: February 09, 2023, 09:39:16 AM »

Until April 2017 and then maybe December 2019 to May 2020. But always in the EC only.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #15 on: February 09, 2023, 04:58:34 PM »
« Edited: February 13, 2023, 06:30:30 PM by Interlocutor »

Seconding January-February 2020 when the Democratic Party was looking disconnected and fractured between the impeachment debates, Iowa and the primaries.

I'm not going with March-May 2020 because I felt it inevitable that Trump would squander his 'Rally Around the Effect' momentum without much effort. The start of lockdowns was actually around when I felt the most confident about Trump losing re-election.
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #16 on: February 09, 2023, 08:30:10 PM »

Early 2017, January 2019-June 2020.  Maybe he could have eeked out the popular vote in late 2019 and in March/April 2020.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #17 on: March 18, 2023, 10:36:59 AM »

Popular vote: Never

Electoral College: May 2019-March 2020 (peak: mid-December to mid-February)
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FloridaMan1845
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« Reply #18 on: March 22, 2023, 01:52:51 PM »

Anytime before COVID. Without COVID, Trump would’ve trounced Biden and quite possibly win the popular vote.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #19 on: March 23, 2023, 10:56:03 AM »

Anytime before COVID. Without COVID, Trump would’ve trounced Biden and quite possibly win the popular vote.

Trump would have lost in the 2nd half of 2017 andf through much of 2018. For late 2019/early 2020, I see a case to make he would have won the EC again. NPV? More than just doubtful.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #20 on: March 23, 2023, 06:04:34 PM »

Early 2020, pre COVID

The Democrats were looking like fools between impeachment and the messy primary.

I remember polls showed Trump strongly ahead in Florida and Ohio, with states like WI and PA as tossups. Considering polls always underestimate him, Trump probably would have won a larger victory than 2016.

Let's not forget that in the very early days of the pandemic just starting Trump saw a rally-around-the-flag effect and had his most positive approval ratings ever. It didn't take long for him to f*** that up entirely shortly after though. And I think the real indicator of when Trump became defeatable was the infamous "inject disinfectant" press conference. The country was willing to give him a chance to get us through this crisis and he quickly demonstrated that he had no idea what he was doing yet again.
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FloridaMan1845
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« Reply #21 on: March 24, 2023, 09:54:42 AM »
« Edited: March 24, 2023, 09:58:52 AM by FloridaMan1845 »

Anytime before COVID. Without COVID, Trump would’ve trounced Biden and quite possibly win the popular vote.

Trump would have lost in the 2nd half of 2017 andf through much of 2018. For late 2019/early 2020, I see a case to make he would have won the EC again. NPV? More than just doubtful.
Trump’s approval ratings were trending upward before COVID, and the economy, etc, were generally doing good. I don’t see why Trump wouldn’t have been able to win the PV, especially since incumbents are notoriously hard to unseat, unless they’re unpopular (even so, despite Trump’s unpopularity, Biden barely beat him. 40,000 votes in GA, AZ, and WI would’ve handed 2020 to Trump).
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sg0508
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« Reply #22 on: March 24, 2023, 10:10:53 AM »

After the 2018 midterms and before COVID. The economy was still on fire, despite that interest rates should have been rising at that point and the corp. tax rates should not have been cut.

The job market was booming.  Without covid, I think he wins another term. Keep in mind that he came close despite covid and other issues in the end.
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Ron DeSantis enthusiast
FranciscoM97
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« Reply #23 on: March 24, 2023, 02:00:22 PM »

Between september 2019 and march 2020 it was Trump best moment to have beat Biden
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ListMan38
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« Reply #24 on: March 24, 2023, 09:26:24 PM »

mid-2018 to March-April 2020

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