What points in Trump's presidency would he have beaten Biden?

[Pres Mike]

Early 2020, pre COVID

The Democrats were looking like fools between impeachment and the messy primary.

I remember polls showed Trump strongly ahead in Florida and Ohio, with states like WI and PA as tossups. Considering polls always underestimate him, Trump probably would have won a larger victory than 2016.

[Pres Mike]

November 2017




November 2018



November 2019



February-May 2020

Very interesting and well thought out maps.

Why do you have Trump winning WI and PA in 2018? Democratic incumbents easily won senate races in these two states. Would they not carry Biden to the finish line?

[Pres Mike]

January 2020 was probably his best bet.

Democrats looked really dysfunctional. No clear front runner and impeachment didn't make sense to most Americans. Economy was really good, the predicited recession never happened. Not sure why everyone expected a recession pre-COVID anyway.

I remember 538 showing Trump leading in Florida and North Carolina, and states like WI and PA as tossups. Probably means Trump wins them again with the tory effect