Will Republicans become more moderate on abortion if 2022 goes poorly for them?

[EJ24]

Assuming Democrats defy historical trends as a result of the Dobbs decision, will the GOP regret their stance on abortion and move to moderate?

[Greedo punched first]

The GOP become more extreme on abortion no matter what happens. If 2022 goes poorly, the GOP will believe it didn't become extreme enough on abortion and focus on abortion enough.

[UncleSam]

More moderate absolutely.

It’s just that how far they go is open for debate. Almost certainly not to anything reasonable or close to what the majority want. Probably just openly calling for exceptions for rape and incest in addition to health of the mother + dropping any discussion of a federal / national ban. I doubt the base would let them go further than that but you can tell DeSantis wants to take the party in the direction of a 15 week ban then just never talking about it again.

[Ferguson97]

No.

[Greedo punched first]

More moderate absolutely.

It’s just that how far they go is open for debate. Almost certainly not to anything reasonable or close to what the majority want. Probably just openly calling for exceptions for rape and incest in addition to health of the mother + dropping any discussion of a federal / national ban. I doubt the base would let them go further than that but you can tell DeSantis wants to take the party in the direction of a 15 week ban then just never talking about it again.

No way.

[Pyro]

No, and this ship has already sailed.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I wish, but I doubt it. At most you'll get a growing disconnect in *rhetoric* between the extreme, fundamentalist state parties in places like Texas and Alabama, and the national party leadership that may want to just ignore the issue, but I have little reason to believe they will actually change on policy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even if they go moderate the Trump criminal investigation is haunting them all the way till Nov

[Indy Texas]

If you take away abortion, there's not much left to energize a lot of their base to get out and vote.

"Owning the libs" is fun but they can just stay home sharing memes online and buying MAGA hats/flags/merch and watching Fox News for that.

[Xing]

When have Republicans become more “moderate” on anything, recently?

[Minnesota Mike]

No, the base won't let them.

[GALeftist]

Parts of the party will push for it, but it probably won't happen in the short or medium term.

[DrScholl]

No. When Republicans lose they don't blame it on issue positions, they blame it on fraud and conspiracy.

[UncleSam]

When have Republicans become more “moderate” on anything, recently?

Gay marriage and marijuana legalization come to mind.

[GALeftist]

When have Republicans become more “moderate” on anything, recently?

Gay marriage and marijuana legalization come to mind.

Couple big differences here.

1. Gay marriage and marijuana both had pretty meteoric rises in popularity, so the GOP base that was once vehemently opposed to gay marriage and marijuana is probably now lukewarm on it, incentivizing moderation. No such shift has happened with abortion; in my estimation, the bonuses Democrats are getting are mostly from activating single-issue pro-choice voters and raising choice's salience among an electorate which was already mostly sympathetic to their position rather than persuading previously neutral or pro-life voters.

2. These issues are just different beasts. I'd imagine that the bible-thumpers still aren't wild about gay marriage or marijuana and think it makes the nation sinful or whatever, but at the end of the day those are highly individual issues; it doesn't make you sinful in any real sense if your neighbor does something you believe to be sinful. Abortion is just different. Take it from a Southerner, a substantial minority if not an outright majority of the GOP base genuinely believes that abortion, even in cases of (child) rape/incest/debilitating issues with the fetus, is ethically no better than smothering a baby because they were conceived via (child) rape/incest or a baby that has debilitating issues. I think there is sometimes a perception that pro-lifers are fibbing in some sense and their real priority is advancing their religion or control over women or something, but no, in most cases they genuinely believe abortion is genocide and they are going to be in a state of revolt for decades, minimum, if the Republicans double back on their unwritten contract with them, the same way I would be in a state of revolt if the Democrats decided genociding some other population of people somehow increased their electoral fortunes.

[Greedo punched first]

When have Republicans become more “moderate” on anything, recently?

Gay marriage and marijuana legalization come to mind.

Ken Paxton and Ron DeathSantis say otherwise. Paxton wants to ban being gay.

[Schiff for Senate]

They can't. They count on the religious right, and if they moderate on abortion and that UPSETS the religious right, that could backfire immensely. The religious right is a vocal minority nationally, but a vocal majority and powerful component of the GOP.

In terms of the poll, Option 2 or Option 3. Most certainly not Option 4 (the base is religious right, socially conservative, and pro-life, and I can't imagine them wanting to moderate on abortion even after a smashing political loss...generally, the party is more politically strategic than its voters, and that's especially true for such an Emotional Issue, where feelings are deep-set and often uncompromisable as far as the Religious Right goes).

[Progressive Pessimist]

The smart ones will, the rest (the majority) will just claim voter fraud and continue advocating for strict, extreme abortion policies that yield weekly headlines to continue making them appear outside of the mainstream and keeping Democrats pissed.

[UncleSam]

When have Republicans become more “moderate” on anything, recently?

Gay marriage and marijuana legalization come to mind.

Couple big differences here.

1. Gay marriage and marijuana both had pretty meteoric rises in popularity, so the GOP base that was once vehemently opposed to gay marriage and marijuana is probably now lukewarm on it, incentivizing moderation. No such shift has happened with abortion; in my estimation, the bonuses Democrats are getting are mostly from activating single-issue pro-choice voters and raising choice's salience among an electorate which was already mostly sympathetic to their position rather than persuading previously neutral or pro-life voters.

2. These issues are just different beasts. I'd imagine that the bible-thumpers still aren't wild about gay marriage or marijuana and think it makes the nation sinful or whatever, but at the end of the day those are highly individual issues; it doesn't make you sinful in any real sense if your neighbor does something you believe to be sinful. Abortion is just different. Take it from a Southerner, a substantial minority if not an outright majority of the GOP base genuinely believes that abortion, even in cases of (child) rape/incest/debilitating issues with the fetus, is ethically no better than smothering a baby because they were conceived via (child) rape/incest or a baby that has debilitating issues. I think there is sometimes a perception that pro-lifers are fibbing in some sense and their real priority is advancing their religion or control over women or something, but no, in most cases they genuinely believe abortion is genocide and they are going to be in a state of revolt for decades, minimum, if the Republicans double back on their unwritten contract with them, the same way I would be in a state of revolt if the Democrats decided genociding some other population of people somehow increased their electoral fortunes.

While these are good points, the moderation I actually predicted for the national party allows for the fact that there is very little leeway on this issue with the base.

Even hardcore bible thumpers are by and large ok with terminating pregnancies in cases of rape or incest - there’s only a small fringe of 10-15% of people who don’t support these measures. Officially moderating on those two exceptions and putting that in the 2024 platform seems very likely to me.

The DeSantis thing is different and it all comes down to political willpower. DeSantis clearly does not want this issue to dominate politics so passed a 15 week ban with exceptions, washed his hands of it, and moved on. If DeSantis wins the nomination he is not going to talk about abortion outside of in the very vaguest terms and in terms of accusing Democrats of wanting partial birth / third trimester abortion to be legal (which some Dems do think those should be legal, but most don’t). If this were an issue that was a priority of his he’d have pushed the legislature in FL (which he basically owns) to pass a much stricter bill.

The national platform will still say the GOP opposes abortion outside of exception cases in 2024, I concede that. But DeSantis is never going to talk about it and won’t bring it up because he clearly knows it is a losing issue for the GOP and wants people to forget about it. And if conservative states pass moderate restrictions like FL has done then people would forget it. Instead states are passing wholesale crazy medieval bans that are ing up countless lives and liberties and people are angry about it.

[OSR stands with Israel]

When have Republicans become more “moderate” on anything, recently?

On a good deal actually:

1. As much as people mock me on this , they absolutely have become more moderate on LGBT issues compared to 10 let alone 20 years ago

2. The GOP is more liberal when it comes to marijuana issues than they were 15-20 years ago (15-20 years ago a GOP admin wouldn’t have tolerate a state legalizing marijuana)

3. The GOP has moved back into becoming more realpolitik on foreign policy which is arguably more moderate than neo conservativism

4. Overall the GOP is still more moderate on economics than they were from 2010-2015 though more right wing than they were pre 2010

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

When have Republicans become more “moderate” on anything, recently?

On a good deal actually:

1. As much as people mock me on this , they absolutely have become more moderate on LGBT issues compared to 10 let alone 20 years ago

2. The GOP is more liberal when it comes to marijuana issues than they were 15-20 years ago (15-20 years ago a GOP admin wouldn’t have tolerate a state legalizing marijuana)

3. The GOP has moved back into becoming more realpolitik on foreign policy which is arguably more moderate than neo conservativism

4. Overall the GOP is still more moderate on economics than they were from 2010-2015 though more right wing than they were pre 2010

1. Some have, while others veered in the opposite direction. The base certainly has, but politicians have been behind. That said gay rights are more accepted than trans rights, obviously, but the dumbasses in the GOP are hurting LGB people in their fight against the T.

2. That's a very low bar considering the whole war on drugs. People like Kristi Noem are going to absurd lengths to block it. Very small government.

3. Trump just pissed everyone off, there wasn't any coherent strategy.

4. Well they still don't agree on any economic policy besides tax cuts which is why that's the only fiscal policy that ever gets done under Republicans.


The base has moderated, but the politicians haven't.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All their candidate are embroiled in scandal like Trump Zinke and Noem and JD Vance just said he doesn't want to forgive student loans and we forget Debt thru bankruptcy just not Student loans, they're not the Reagan party they are corrupted ajd Trump was Corrupted and he ran as clean unethical Trump against Hillary

[Devils30]

They won't, it will take more. You gotta understand, many of them entered politics as young people with total abortion bans as their dream. They are too drunk to see any of their flaws until they lose multiple elections.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL... people who really think this are kidding themselves.

If the GOP underperforms, they will just blame everything on rigging, other baseless conspiracy theories and the media. Perhaps few individual candidates will lean a lesson, it won't matter though.

[Xing]

When have Republicans become more “moderate” on anything, recently?

On a good deal actually:

1. As much as people mock me on this , they absolutely have become more moderate on LGBT issues compared to 10 let alone 20 years ago

2. The GOP is more liberal when it comes to marijuana issues than they were 15-20 years ago (15-20 years ago a GOP admin wouldn’t have tolerate a state legalizing marijuana)

3. The GOP has moved back into becoming more realpolitik on foreign policy which is arguably more moderate than neo conservativism

4. Overall the GOP is still more moderate on economics than they were from 2010-2015 though more right wing than they were pre 2010

Since I’m talking about the party apparatus and not base voters…

1. They mostly sidelined the issue since they recognized that opposing it was a losing battle, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they wouldn’t try to limit LGBTQ rights if they thought they could get away with it.

2. Perhaps some have, but many still seem opposed to legalization of pot.

3. I really have not seen any meaningful change in the GOP when it comes to actual policy here. Sure, there are some bits of rhetoric here and there, but Biden has uronically been much more “dovish” than Trump.

4. I can’t think of any example that backs this up. With Trump’s tax cuts, staunch opposition to corporate taxes, as well as opposition to the COVID stimulus when it was Biden trying to pass it.