NM-GOV (GQR): Lujan Grisham +4
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  NM-GOV (GQR): Lujan Grisham +4
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Author Topic: NM-GOV (GQR): Lujan Grisham +4  (Read 840 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: August 23, 2022, 04:05:18 PM »

Pretty old though, July 11-17.

Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) 48%
Mark Ronchetti (R) 44%
Bedonie (L) 5%
Other/undecided 3%

Grisham fav: 52/44 (+8)

Grisham winning Hispanics 56-37

Fav among Hispanics 61-36

https://www.edfaction.org/sites/edactionfund.org/files/EDFAction_New_Mexico_Statewide_Survey_Memo.pdf
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2022, 04:11:36 PM »

Any Covid hawk governor with a capable opponent is going to find themselves facing a tougher race than expected.
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Real Texan Politics
EEllis02
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« Reply #2 on: August 23, 2022, 04:25:37 PM »

She's losing
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: August 23, 2022, 04:26:38 PM »

Lol Abbott in the last poll was up 46/39 then he is losing too
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #4 on: August 23, 2022, 04:33:12 PM »

While this race is D favored, it's also one of the likelier R flips, relatively speaking.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #5 on: August 23, 2022, 04:57:42 PM »

This poll is over a month old anyways
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
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« Reply #6 on: August 23, 2022, 04:58:36 PM »

If Ronchetti were to win, I could see him on the Republican ticket in 2024 or 2028.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: August 23, 2022, 05:05:41 PM »

Grisham underperforming her favorability (52%) a bit, but Ronchetti at exactly her unfavorable. Seems that she has some room to grow.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #8 on: August 23, 2022, 05:55:03 PM »

Upset potential for Ronchetti still exists here, but I can see this being a realistic end result.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #9 on: August 23, 2022, 06:29:06 PM »

But muh neutral environment
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President Johnson
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« Reply #10 on: August 24, 2022, 02:30:39 PM »

I don't think this ultimately flips, though it's very much possible. Too close for comfort and Ronchetti did surprisingly well in the 2020 senate race.

Wouldn't it be kind of weird if New Mexico's governorship flips Republican while neighboring Arizona's flips Democratic?
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #11 on: August 24, 2022, 06:35:10 PM »


It's from over a month ago. Things may have changed since then. It's just that it's the most recent poll we have of this race.

In fact, it may very well still suggest a neutral environment. In a neutral environment party considerations likely matter less and with Ronchetti being a purportedly good candidate and Lujan Grisham (from last I saw) never being in a position better than slightly above water with her approvals, this kind of checks out. If it were a Republican wave environment Ronchetti would be leading, and in a Democratic environment Lujan Grisham would probably be well-ahead. Of course, gubernatorial elections also tend to be more separated from the national environment anyway. Baker, Hogan, and Scott winning overwhelmingly in 2018 didn't negate that year's Democratic wave; and Lamont barely winning in Connecticut didn't either.
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