NM-GOV (GQR): Lujan Grisham +4

[wbrocks67]

Pretty old though, July 11-17.

Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) 48%
Mark Ronchetti (R) 44%
Bedonie (L) 5%
Other/undecided 3%

Grisham fav: 52/44 (+8)

Grisham winning Hispanics 56-37

Fav among Hispanics 61-36

https://www.edfaction.org/sites/edactionfund.org/files/EDFAction_New_Mexico_Statewide_Survey_Memo.pdf

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Any Covid hawk governor with a capable opponent is going to find themselves facing a tougher race than expected.

[Real Texan Politics]

She's losing

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol Abbott in the last poll was up 46/39 then he is losing too

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

While this race is D favored, it's also one of the likelier R flips, relatively speaking.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This poll is over a month old anyways

[Senator Incitatus]

If Ronchetti were to win, I could see him on the Republican ticket in 2024 or 2028.

[wbrocks67]

Grisham underperforming her favorability (52%) a bit, but Ronchetti at exactly her unfavorable. Seems that she has some room to grow.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Upset potential for Ronchetti still exists here, but I can see this being a realistic end result.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

But muh neutral environment

[President Johnson]

I don't think this ultimately flips, though it's very much possible. Too close for comfort and Ronchetti did surprisingly well in the 2020 senate race.

Wouldn't it be kind of weird if New Mexico's governorship flips Republican while neighboring Arizona's flips Democratic?

[Progressive Pessimist]

But muh neutral environment

It's from over a month ago. Things may have changed since then. It's just that it's the most recent poll we have of this race.

In fact, it may very well still suggest a neutral environment. In a neutral environment party considerations likely matter less and with Ronchetti being a purportedly good candidate and Lujan Grisham (from last I saw) never being in a position better than slightly above water with her approvals, this kind of checks out. If it were a Republican wave environment Ronchetti would be leading, and in a Democratic environment Lujan Grisham would probably be well-ahead. Of course, gubernatorial elections also tend to be more separated from the national environment anyway. Baker, Hogan, and Scott winning overwhelmingly in 2018 didn't negate that year's Democratic wave; and Lamont barely winning in Connecticut didn't either.