Senate balance in the 118th Congress

[Roll Roons]

What will be the balance of the Senate in January 2023? I'm counting King and Sanders as Democrats.

[President Johnson]

Bold take: 51-49 in favor of Democrats.

Don't want to predict any flips other than Pennsylvania going for Fetterman.

[MarkD]

I think it will be 53D to 47R. I don't think any current D seats flip to R, but OH, PA, and WI will flip to R. (CORRECTION: those will flip to D.)

[ProgressiveModerate]

51R - 49D.

I explained my reasoning in another thread but essentially the typical poor Hispanic turnout costs Dems NV and AZ while Oz imploding and Fetterman running a solid campaign allows Ds to flip PA.

Ultimately though, I think the range of very realistic outcomes ranges from something like 54R-36D to 53D-47R. Basically all the battleground seats were in states that were extremely close in 2020 Pres so a small shift in national environment could have a huge impact.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Bold take: 51-49 in favor of Democrats.

Don't want to predict any flips other than Pennsylvania going for Fetterman.

That’s not bold that literally the most expected outcome. A bold take would be 49-51 or 53-47

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's 51/45 D right now GA Runoffs, OH, NC and FL are out 4 seats

[Xing]

My guess right now, assuming the environment improves a bit for Republicans, is either 52-48 R or 51-49 R, with GA being the biggest question mark. If the environment doesn’t improve for Republicans or even gets better for Democrats, I’d say AZ/NV hold for them, getting them to 51 seats, with a chance for 52.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My guess right now, assuming the environment improves a bit for Republicans, is either 52-48 R or 51-49 R, with GA being the being question mark. If the environment doesn’t improve for Republicans or even gets better for Democrats, I’d say AZ/NV hold for them, getting them to 51 seats, with a chance for 52.

Lol the Rs just cut Spending and Fox polls have Barnes and Fetterman ahead it's a 3o3 map right now the question is GA, OH, NC, FL you sai the Atlas meme Bevin was gonna beat Beshear it's not an R Sen your map is wrong

Biden Approvals are low but the GCB has favored D's The Approvals had Trump at 42 and he net gained seats in both 2018/20 stop equating approvals with Polls

[TwinGeeks99]

As of today I predict the Senate delegation will stay exactly the same except for Fetterman flipping Pennsylvania, making the delegation 51D-49R. I do recognize though that anything is possible and there are very volatile races that exist on both sides that could flip given the right environment.

Basically, to me there are six crucial Senate races to watch, three currently being held by either party; namely AZ, GA, NV, OH, PA, and WI. So the realistic range is from 53R-47D to 53D-47R.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

53-47 R
R+AZ, NV, GA NH
- PA
R +3

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

53-47 R
R+AZ, NV, GA NH
- PA
R +3

.you really think that and 24 we're on defense and we can lose WVA and OH and MT which will get Rs almost 60 seats, lol plse we're gonna win PA and WI

CCM is up Seven and Kelly is up 8 and Fetterman is up 4

Rs already cut funding in PA, WO and AZ

[Ogre Mage]

Based on current conditions it is a close call between 50 D-50 R and 51 D-49 R.  I went with 51 D-49 R because of the major weakness of Oz (lol) in PA.  Masters in AZ isn't much better and is a Peter Thiel funded @$$licker.  GA and NV look close, but both Warnock and Cortez Masto appear to be slightly ahead in polling averages.  Republicans have major candidate quality problems with too many nominees who have terrible candidate skills, radical right-wing views unpopular in their states or both.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs want us to have 51/49 R SEN so they can win WVA and MT lol all the polls show Masters behind and users still say Kelly is toast it's the Atlas meme just like KY 2019 that Kelly will lose Lol, even Fox has Ron Johnson behind

538 increased Barnes winning from 25 to 40 percent after Marquette polls

[Pericles]

New Hampshire looks like a hold. Georgia will be tough but it is inelastic (with great trends) and has a good candidate quality gap for Democrats, so narrowly ends up a hold. The rest of the competitive races should go Republican, if this midterm roughly reflects Biden having an approval rating in the high 30s and inflation being at 9%. If Democrats have strong leads in key races as the election approaches, this midterm may actually be weird.

[MATTROSE94]

Anywhere from 51-49 Democrat to 52-48 Republican. I would say that Pennsylvania is a guaranteed pickup for the Democrats, but that Nevada is a guaranteed Republican pickup. Mandela Barnes seems to be surging in the polls against Ron Johnson while Chuck Morse would be the favorite to defeat Maggie Hassan if he gets through the primary. Raphael Warnock seems to the the narrow favorite due to Herschel Walkers gaffes and atrocious candidate quality. Arizona is pure tossup, as Blake Masters is a high risk high reward candidate due to his “interesting” political positions.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a GOTV TURNOUT MEANING 99 PERCENT EITHER DIVIDED GOVT OR SECULAR TRIFECTA, ITS LIKE A 1 PERCENT CHANCE WE GET R CONGRESS BECAUSE THE 303 BLUE WALL 235 /210 RH and 50/56 D SEN THATS THE RANGE

THE REASON Why THE DS ARE OVERPERFORMED BIDEN APPROVALS AS VACCINATED BEAR FAILED TO REALIZE IS That BIDEN HAS BEEN Consistently AT 41 SINCE VA GOV LOSS AND WE LOST THAT RACE BY 2 MOT 20 Because TRUMP HAS THE SAME LOW APPROVALS ON THE SAME CIVIQ POLLS

NEWSOM, BIDEN ATE AT 45 PERCENT IN CALI BUT TRUMP IS AT 60/40 DISAPPROVAL IN CALI THATS WHY NEWSOM WITH A 45 PERCEBT BEAT THE 50 PERCENT THRESHOLD TO WIN THE RECALL

I don't think Civiq polled Bush W Approvals in 2010/14 that's why we Ds lost so badly on both EDay


There is something wrong with R brand when Biden is at 41 and they are losing the GCB 46/42, and D's are passing legislation

You have Fox and Traggy polls showing D's winning blue wall states and Rassy has Biden at 45/54 Approvals

I remember Vaccinated Bear kept saying Biden was at 41 PERCENT Approvals pre Dobbs Mark Kelly 40/39 post Dobbs 50/42

[Burke Bro]

52 Republicans to 48 Democrats. Republicans flip Nevada and Arizona, while Democrats narrowly hold on in New Hampshire. Georgia and Pennsylvania are the states I’m least sure about- but if I had to put my money somewhere, I’d  put it on Republicans in Pennsylvania (in spite of Oz being an awful fit for the state) and Warnock in Georgia (due to how insulated Georgia is from the national environment).

[Orser67]

I think the overall Senate race is a true tossup, but if forced to pick I guess I'd go with a 50/50 Senate.

This whole cycle, there have been 7 races that could plausibly go either way: NH, AZ, GA, NV, PA, NC, and WI (with OH, FL, and CO as semi-plausible stretch targets). While I'm not ruling out the other three races being decisive, I think Senate control probably comes down to whether Democrats can win three of AZ, GA, NV, and PA. I think that, in turn, will probably come down to two questions: 1)will the national environment get worse for Democrats in the last months of the race?, and 2)assuming the national environment does get worse, will the Democratic advantage in candidate quality (including the incumbency advantage in three of these states) outweigh the national environment? Right now I'd very hesitantly guess yes to both questions.

[MT Treasurer]

I still think Republicans will win three or four of WI/NV/AZ/GA/PA (in about that order) and thereby control of the Senate, but I’ll concede that Democrats have a narrow path to keeping the chamber. 51R/49D or 52R/48D (going with the latter).

[MATTROSE94]

I still think Republicans will win three or four of WI/NV/AZ/GA/PA (in about that order) and thereby control of the Senate, but I’ll concede that Democrats have a narrow path to keeping the chamber. 51R/49D or 52R/48D (going with the latter).

51-49 or 52-48 Republican seems likely. Adam Laxalt, Blake Masters, and Chuck Morse still have a very good chance of winning even if John Fetterman defeats Dr. Oz and Raphael Warnock defeats Herschel Walker. Adam Laxalt and Chuck Morse are great fits for their states and Blake Masters seems like a high risk high reward candidate with a solid chance to win.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anywhere from 51-49 Democrat to 52-48 Republican. I would say that Pennsylvania is a guaranteed pickup for the Democrats, but that Nevada is a guaranteed Republican pickup. Mandela Barnes seems to be surging in the polls against Ron Johnson while Chuck Morse would be the favorite to defeat Maggie Hassan if he gets through the primary. Raphael Warnock seems to the the narrow favorite due to Herschel Walkers gaffes and atrocious candidate quality. Arizona is pure tossup, as Blake Masters is a high risk high reward candidate due to his “interesting” political positions.

PA and NV are both far form guaranteed flips lol.

[President Johnson]

Bold take: 51-49 in favor of Democrats.

Don't want to predict any flips other than Pennsylvania going for Fetterman.

That’s not bold that literally the most expected outcome. A bold take would be 49-51 or 53-47

Maybe not as as of now, though I try to keep my hopes down because the environment can still shift over September and October. A Democratic senate is likely, but far from given.

[MATTROSE94]

Anywhere from 51-49 Democrat to 52-48 Republican. I would say that Pennsylvania is a guaranteed pickup for the Democrats, but that Nevada is a guaranteed Republican pickup. Mandela Barnes seems to be surging in the polls against Ron Johnson while Chuck Morse would be the favorite to defeat Maggie Hassan if he gets through the primary. Raphael Warnock seems to the the narrow favorite due to Herschel Walkers gaffes and atrocious candidate quality. Arizona is pure tossup, as Blake Masters is a high risk high reward candidate due to his “interesting” political positions.

PA and NV are both far form guaranteed flips lol.

Adam Laxalt and John Fetterman seem to be in very good shape to win their respective races, as Dr. Oz and Catherine Cortez Masto are weak candidates at best and poor fits for their respective states.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anywhere from 51-49 Democrat to 52-48 Republican. I would say that Pennsylvania is a guaranteed pickup for the Democrats, but that Nevada is a guaranteed Republican pickup. Mandela Barnes seems to be surging in the polls against Ron Johnson while Chuck Morse would be the favorite to defeat Maggie Hassan if he gets through the primary. Raphael Warnock seems to the the narrow favorite due to Herschel Walkers gaffes and atrocious candidate quality. Arizona is pure tossup, as Blake Masters is a high risk high reward candidate due to his “interesting” political positions.

PA and NV are both far form guaranteed flips lol.

Adam Laxalt and John Fetterman seem to be in very good shape to win their respective races, as Dr. Oz and Catherine Cortez Masto are weak candidates at best and poor fits for their respective states.

That could make them lean D/R respectively but the outcome may come down to unforeseen turnout dynamics.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

My best guess is 52 Ds, with PA and WI flipping only.