Which do you believe is true?
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  Which do you believe is true?
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Poll
Question: -skip-
#1
The polls are even further off than they were in 2020, and weíre still headed for a red wave
 
#2
The environment has noticeably shifted in favor of the Democrats
 
#3
Both/the truth is somewhere in between the two
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 100

Author Topic: Which do you believe is true?  (Read 880 times)
OneJ
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« Reply #25 on: August 19, 2022, 06:53:46 AM »

I'd choose option #2 by default because no one truly knows how much polling will be off literally until we get results (unless I just choose to lower my expectations which I have for most of this cycle anyway). We can cite 2016 and 2020 all we want to for how polling can overestimate Democrats, but remember that 2018 did fairly well. The results that we got from the recent special elections (at least the ones that had polling) didn't underestimate the Republicans. At the end of the day, we are 2.5 months out and I realize that anything can happen from this point forward.
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Spectator
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« Reply #26 on: August 19, 2022, 08:16:38 AM »

That #CandidateQuality actually matters despite the rhetoric here. Otherwise I donít think Republicans would lose Pennsylvania or Arizona or GA-Sen this year. I voted 3 though. No ways are Democrats winning Florida or Ohio. I am still skeptical on WI-Sen too.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #27 on: August 19, 2022, 05:39:48 PM »

The polls are egregiously wrong. As long as democrats are more college educated and Republicans less, that will continue to be the case
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #28 on: August 20, 2022, 02:56:11 AM »
« Edited: August 20, 2022, 01:50:56 PM by Interlocutor »

Regardless of how realistic a scenario, it'd be really funny if polling errors this year end up benefiting the Dems
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #29 on: August 20, 2022, 05:21:44 PM »

Regardless of how realistic a scenario, it'd be really funny if polling errors this year end up benefiting the Dems

I would love that so much and would love to go full-AncestralDemocrat/Electionsguy/Politician in future threads about Republican favoring polls.

"Remember 2022! ROFLMAO!"
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #30 on: August 21, 2022, 09:57:53 AM »

Both are true

Month or two ago I would have said GOP is winning 240-245 seats, now unless things go terribly in the next few months I think Dems can hold the GOP into the 230-235 range.

On the senate side I would have said the GOP was going to gain seats and lock in the majority for a decade to come. Now I still think they have the edge but itís very close

With that said: WI, OH and NC polls are all laughable. The Dems arenít winning those 3. Period
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Figueira
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« Reply #31 on: August 21, 2022, 11:55:46 AM »

The environment has almost certainly shifted, but that doesn't preclude the polls being off (in either direction).
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