Does Tim Ryan have a chance to win?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

"A chance" implies anything more than 0%. Obviously it's higher than that, I just voted No regardless because his chances are extremely low. The fundamentals are just against it. Trump twice won the state by 8, Dems failed to elect a gov since 1991 for all but once and Brown was a a strong incumbent running in a Dem wave year. The polls are not trustworthy, as they constantly underestimated R support, especially with months to go.

He might have a chance against Vance if both ran in a state like PA or even WI, just not OH. Sure, Vance may not be a good candidate, fundamentals and the state's partisan lean will definitely bail him out.

Likely/Safe R.

Lol every poll has Vance Losing

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sherrod Brown wasnt polling in.2012/18 50 percent he was polling in Rassy polls the same as Ryan under 50 especially 2012 46/41 against Josh Mandel and wound up 52/46 in both Election

DeWine easily won in 2018 there can be split voting, DeWine/Brown DeWine/Ryan just like in AZ Kari Lake and Kelly but Robson is the weaker candidate and is now tied with Lake at 43

[2016]

"A chance" implies anything more than 0%. Obviously it's higher than that, I just voted No regardless because his chances are extremely low. The fundamentals are just against it. Trump twice won the state by 8, Dems failed to elect a gov since 1991 for all but once and Brown was a a strong incumbent running in a Dem wave year. The polls are not trustworthy, as they constantly underestimated R support, especially with months to go.

He might have a chance against Vance if both ran in a state like PA or even WI, just not OH. Sure, Vance may not be a good candidate, fundamentals and the state's partisan lean will definitely bail him out.

Likely/Safe R.

Lol every poll has Vance Losing

Every Poll has the White Working Class Voters as the most Undecided Vote and almost all will go Republican.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1552312919332880384

[Adam Griffin]

Triage Ohio.

The rest are still winnable by Democrats.

The southern half of the state is increasingly being influenced by an expansion of Southern cultural hegemony, yet possesses none of the black population necessary to counter the intensity of that effect. The western portion of the state is influenced by the Midwest, but is also the most GOP-friendly portion of the state [and arguably the entire region] and therefore doesn't enjoy the elasticity of the broader region. The eastern portion of the state is influenced by the Northeast (albeit its more Rust Belt variety), but is the least educated and poorest segment of the state: exactly the types who are flocking to the GOP and who have no regrets about it.

Best for Democrats to triage any races not involving Brown right now and not waste millions (tens of millions?) more once again on a state that's gone!

[Person Man]

A chance? Sure.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's were favored to net gain seats in 2020 we lost seats of course the D priority is WI, PA, AZ, and GA but upsets do happen Hillary was favored to win OH in 2016 and she lost, we haven't had duplicate maps etwo election cycles in a row, but D's have more targets in 22/26 than Rs it's called wave insurance but Brown wasn't at ,50 percent in 2012 he was polling exactly the same against Mandel 46/41 in 2012 and the last poll had Ryan leading 46/41 and Act blue still want us to donate to AZ, PA, GA, WI, OH, NC and FL because it's black and brown vote

Josh Mandel wasn't a Tea Partier he was a Vet that's why Brown was polling under 50 and Obama barely won OH that yr 50/47

Coincidence, D's don't give Johnson an 88 percent chance because like Toomey he has a 36 percent favs Portman has a 40/35 Favs and would have easily won reelection

[2016]

D's were favored to net gain seats in 2020 we lost seats of course the D priority is WI, PA, AZ, and GA but upsets do happen Hillary was favored to win OH in 2016 and she lost, we haven't had duplicate maps etwo election cycles in a row, but D's have more targets in 22/26 than Rs it's called wave insurance but Brown wasn't at ,50 percent in 2012 he was polling exactly the same against Mandel 46/41 in 2012 and the last poll had Ryan leading 46/41 and Act blue still want us to donate to AZ, PA, GA, WI, OH, NC and FL because it's black and brown vote

Josh Mandel wasn't a Tea Partier he was a Vet that's why Brown was polling under 50 and Obama barely won OH that yr 50/47

Coincidence, D's don't give Johnson an 88 percent chance because like Toomey he has a 36 percent favs Portman has a 40/35 Favs and would have easily won reelection

You are talking nonsense again. Hillary Clinton was not favoured to win Ohio in 2016. In fact, Ohio & Iowa were the most likely flips to Republicans.

[UWS]

D's were favored to net gain seats in 2020 we lost seats of course the D priority is WI, PA, AZ, and GA but upsets do happen Hillary was favored to win OH in 2016 and she lost, we haven't had duplicate maps etwo election cycles in a row, but D's have more targets in 22/26 than Rs it's called wave insurance but Brown wasn't at ,50 percent in 2012 he was polling exactly the same against Mandel 46/41 in 2012 and the last poll had Ryan leading 46/41 and Act blue still want us to donate to AZ, PA, GA, WI, OH, NC and FL because it's black and brown vote

Josh Mandel wasn't a Tea Partier he was a Vet that's why Brown was polling under 50 and Obama barely won OH that yr 50/47

Coincidence, D's don't give Johnson an 88 percent chance because like Toomey he has a 36 percent favs Portman has a 40/35 Favs and would have easily won reelection

You are talking nonsense again. Hillary Clinton was not favoured to win Ohio in 2016. In fact, Ohio & Iowa were the most likely flips to Republicans.

Ryan is so out of step with Ohio. Over and over again he supports higher taxes.

In 2006, he voted against making tax cuts permanent. Then in 2011, he voted against reducing payroll taxes and against extending payroll tax cuts. He voted against establishing an income tax deduction of 20 percent for small businesses in 2012, voted against an amendment requiring a congressional approval to establish a carbon tax, against the America Gives More Act extending tax deductions for certain charitable contributions and tax-free distributions from individual retirement accounts for charitable purposes indefinitely, against America's Small Business Tax Relief Act of 2015, against repealing the Death Tax, against the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017, against the Protecting Family and Small Business Tax Cuts Act of 2018 that provides permanent tax cuts to individuals and small-business tax cuts. Last year, he voted to increase the State and Local Tax (SALT) and to raise taxes on 30 % of middle-class families.

Congressman Ryan has never met a tax increase he didn’t like. So here’s what you can expect from Tim Ryan : if he is elected he will fight to raise taxes. That is precisely the last thing we need in such time of inflation.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

D's were favored to net gain seats in 2020 we lost seats of course the D priority is WI, PA, AZ, and GA but upsets do happen Hillary was favored to win OH in 2016 and she lost, we haven't had duplicate maps etwo election cycles in a row, but D's have more targets in 22/26 than Rs it's called wave insurance but Brown wasn't at ,50 percent in 2012 he was polling exactly the same against Mandel 46/41 in 2012 and the last poll had Ryan leading 46/41 and Act blue still want us to donate to AZ, PA, GA, WI, OH, NC and FL because it's black and brown vote

Josh Mandel wasn't a Tea Partier he was a Vet that's why Brown was polling under 50 and Obama barely won OH that yr 50/47

Coincidence, D's don't give Johnson an 88 percent chance because like Toomey he has a 36 percent favs Portman has a 40/35 Favs and would have easily won reelection

You are talking nonsense again. Hillary Clinton was not favoured to win Ohio in 2016. In fact, Ohio & Iowa were the most likely flips to Republicans.

Ryan is so out of step with Ohio. Over and over again he supports higher taxes.

In 2006, he voted against making tax cuts permanent. Then in 2011, he voted against reducing payroll taxes and against extending payroll tax cuts. He voted against establishing an income tax deduction of 20 percent for small businesses in 2012, voted against an amendment requiring a congressional approval to establish a carbon tax, against the America Gives More Act extending tax deductions for certain charitable contributions and tax-free distributions from individual retirement accounts for charitable purposes indefinitely, against America's Small Business Tax Relief Act of 2015, against repealing the Death Tax, against the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017, against the Protecting Family and Small Business Tax Cuts Act of 2018 that provides permanent tax cuts to individuals and small-business tax cuts. Last year, he voted to increase the State and Local Tax (SALT) and to raise taxes on 30 % of middle-class families.

Congressman Ryan has never met a tax increase he didn’t like. So here’s what you can expect from Tim Ryan : if he is elected he will fight to raise taxes. That is precisely the last thing we need in such time of inflation.

This post sponsored by the NRSC

[Adam Griffin]

D's were favored to net gain seats in 2020 we lost seats of course the D priority is WI, PA, AZ, and GA but upsets do happen Hillary was favored to win OH in 2016 and she lost, we haven't had duplicate maps etwo election cycles in a row, but D's have more targets in 22/26 than Rs it's called wave insurance but Brown wasn't at ,50 percent in 2012 he was polling exactly the same against Mandel 46/41 in 2012 and the last poll had Ryan leading 46/41 and Act blue still want us to donate to AZ, PA, GA, WI, OH, NC and FL because it's black and brown vote

Josh Mandel wasn't a Tea Partier he was a Vet that's why Brown was polling under 50 and Obama barely won OH that yr 50/47

Coincidence, D's don't give Johnson an 88 percent chance because like Toomey he has a 36 percent favs Portman has a 40/35 Favs and would have easily won reelection

You are talking nonsense again. Hillary Clinton was not favoured to win Ohio in 2016. In fact, Ohio & Iowa were the most likely flips to Republicans.

Ryan is so out of step with Ohio. Over and over again he supports higher taxes.

In 2006, he voted against making tax cuts permanent. Then in 2011, he voted against reducing payroll taxes and against extending payroll tax cuts. He voted against establishing an income tax deduction of 20 percent for small businesses in 2012, voted against an amendment requiring a congressional approval to establish a carbon tax, against the America Gives More Act extending tax deductions for certain charitable contributions and tax-free distributions from individual retirement accounts for charitable purposes indefinitely, against America's Small Business Tax Relief Act of 2015, against repealing the Death Tax, against the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017, against the Protecting Family and Small Business Tax Cuts Act of 2018 that provides permanent tax cuts to individuals and small-business tax cuts. Last year, he voted to increase the State and Local Tax (SALT) and to raise taxes on 30 % of middle-class families.

Congressman Ryan has never met a tax increase he didn’t like. So here’s what you can expect from Tim Ryan : if he is elected he will fight to raise taxes. That is precisely the last thing we need in such time of inflation.

This really seems like talking points from 2009-2011. Grover Norquist, are you there?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said before there can be upsets, Warren already said this on MSNBC, just because users say we aren't gonna win OH doesn't mean diddly squat these are pre Election polls not exit polls we have to get results these aren't Exit polls and every Election is not the same just like Obama and Clinton won OH, Bush W and Trump took back OH it flips back and forth we still don't know what's gonna happen

Vance is a very weak candidate trailing in the polls in an Environment like this like most Senate R candidate are trailing Walker, Laxalt and Masters were all supposed to win and they are losing

Walker is now down by 10 just like a poll had Vance was down by 9 if he wins it will be such a narrow margin he was expected to win by double digits

[Sbane]

Perhaps if there are a significant amount of third party votes? I highly doubt he cracks 46%.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I mean, every candidate has a CHANCE to win an election and Mr. Vance isn't the strongest candidate that the GOP could have nominated. 

But no.  No he does not. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I mean, every candidate has a CHANCE to win an election and Mr. Vance isn't the strongest candidate that the GOP could have nominated. 

But no.  No he does not. 

Yes he does he has won every poll Obama ran with Biden and won OH, Rs don't own OH and it's 12 percent blk

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I mean, every candidate has a CHANCE to win an election and Mr. Vance isn't the strongest candidate that the GOP could have nominated. 

But no.  No he does not. 

Yes he does he has won every poll Obama ran with Biden and won OH, Rs don't own OH and it's 12 percent blk

Awh, OC knows who I am

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All I am saying is that there can be upsets every EDay we have upsets 2000 FL, 2004 OH,. 2006 TN Harold Ford should of been D's 52 ND, 2008 IN going D, 2010 NV Reid holds on 2012 Obama wins FL, 2016 Trump upset 2018 Nelson losing in FL, 2020 Collins holding on


If election followed ratings there wouldn't be no need to vote we would just let the polls be our Democracy

OH, NC and FL, IA, and MO and TX would be upsets but if D's can win KY and R plus 20 state and user predictions wrongly had Bevin win they can win OH an R plus 5/8 pts state, like  user predictions have the S map just as wrong now

[ProgressiveModerate]

D's were favored to net gain seats in 2020 we lost seats of course the D priority is WI, PA, AZ, and GA but upsets do happen Hillary was favored to win OH in 2016 and she lost, we haven't had duplicate maps etwo election cycles in a row, but D's have more targets in 22/26 than Rs it's called wave insurance but Brown wasn't at ,50 percent in 2012 he was polling exactly the same against Mandel 46/41 in 2012 and the last poll had Ryan leading 46/41 and Act blue still want us to donate to AZ, PA, GA, WI, OH, NC and FL because it's black and brown vote

Josh Mandel wasn't a Tea Partier he was a Vet that's why Brown was polling under 50 and Obama barely won OH that yr 50/47

Coincidence, D's don't give Johnson an 88 percent chance because like Toomey he has a 36 percent favs Portman has a 40/35 Favs and would have easily won reelection

You are talking nonsense again. Hillary Clinton was not favoured to win Ohio in 2016. In fact, Ohio & Iowa were the most likely flips to Republicans.

Ryan is so out of step with Ohio. Over and over again he supports higher taxes.

In 2006, he voted against making tax cuts permanent. Then in 2011, he voted against reducing payroll taxes and against extending payroll tax cuts. He voted against establishing an income tax deduction of 20 percent for small businesses in 2012, voted against an amendment requiring a congressional approval to establish a carbon tax, against the America Gives More Act extending tax deductions for certain charitable contributions and tax-free distributions from individual retirement accounts for charitable purposes indefinitely, against America's Small Business Tax Relief Act of 2015, against repealing the Death Tax, against the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017, against the Protecting Family and Small Business Tax Cuts Act of 2018 that provides permanent tax cuts to individuals and small-business tax cuts. Last year, he voted to increase the State and Local Tax (SALT) and to raise taxes on 30 % of middle-class families.

Congressman Ryan has never met a tax increase he didn’t like. So here’s what you can expect from Tim Ryan : if he is elected he will fight to raise taxes. That is precisely the last thing we need in such time of inflation.

This sounds like your personal perspective that he's out of line with Ohio and I'm not one here to say if he is or isn't. However, so far at least, his campaign seems to have done a pretty good job at making him seem like a fit for OH and the lack of a Vance campaign has made it so these controversial votes in his past haven't come up for discussion.

Anyways, while he may have a CHANCE technically, his path is very hard for me to see. We see time and time again polarization winning out in these Senate races and I expect this to be no different.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

He very well could, but this reminds me a bit of NJ 2018. Menendez was considered a bad (and corrupt) candidate and Hugin a good one causing many pundits to consider the race competitive. However, come November the blue wave and the state's partisanship were just too much to overcome and he lost by 11 in a Clinton+14 state. Hugin also outraised Menendez by nearly $19M.

[GALeftist]

D's were favored to net gain seats in 2020 we lost seats of course the D priority is WI, PA, AZ, and GA but upsets do happen Hillary was favored to win OH in 2016 and she lost, we haven't had duplicate maps etwo election cycles in a row, but D's have more targets in 22/26 than Rs it's called wave insurance but Brown wasn't at ,50 percent in 2012 he was polling exactly the same against Mandel 46/41 in 2012 and the last poll had Ryan leading 46/41 and Act blue still want us to donate to AZ, PA, GA, WI, OH, NC and FL because it's black and brown vote

Josh Mandel wasn't a Tea Partier he was a Vet that's why Brown was polling under 50 and Obama barely won OH that yr 50/47

Coincidence, D's don't give Johnson an 88 percent chance because like Toomey he has a 36 percent favs Portman has a 40/35 Favs and would have easily won reelection

You are talking nonsense again. Hillary Clinton was not favoured to win Ohio in 2016. In fact, Ohio & Iowa were the most likely flips to Republicans.

Ryan is so out of step with Ohio. Over and over again he supports higher taxes.

In 2006, he voted against making tax cuts permanent. Then in 2011, he voted against reducing payroll taxes and against extending payroll tax cuts. He voted against establishing an income tax deduction of 20 percent for small businesses in 2012, voted against an amendment requiring a congressional approval to establish a carbon tax, against the America Gives More Act extending tax deductions for certain charitable contributions and tax-free distributions from individual retirement accounts for charitable purposes indefinitely, against America's Small Business Tax Relief Act of 2015, against repealing the Death Tax, against the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017, against the Protecting Family and Small Business Tax Cuts Act of 2018 that provides permanent tax cuts to individuals and small-business tax cuts. Last year, he voted to increase the State and Local Tax (SALT) and to raise taxes on 30 % of middle-class families.

Congressman Ryan has never met a tax increase he didn’t like. So here’s what you can expect from Tim Ryan : if he is elected he will fight to raise taxes. That is precisely the last thing we need in such time of inflation.

Saw someone say this on Twitter and it's very true: y'all need Trump back, you're reverting to Paul Ryan rhetoric as soon as he's gone.

[Nyvin]

Repealing the Death (estate) tax is something the vast, overwhelming majority of people SHOULD be against.

Pre-2017, the first $5.5 million of an estate is exempt from taxes anyway.  This means unless you planned on inheriting an estate significantly larger than $5.5 million (which I don't believe Ohio has too many voters of this type) than the estate tax worked entirely in your favor as it gave the government tax revenue in place of higher federal income taxes.

The 2017 Trump Tax law increased the exempt amount to $11 million, so repealing that makes even less sense.

Even the people who do reach $11 million estates the tax only affects amounts ABOVE that amount so to really have any meaningful affect the estate has to be in the ~$13-15 million area.  There's probably fewer than a couple dozen people in all of Ohio who inherit estates of that size.

[GeneralMacArthur]

There's this website I've been checking lately, www.bluewavehq.com, that pulls numbers from PredictIt and converts them into percentages, and has a time series of how they change day by day.

Right now it's got Tim Ryan 23% chance to win, up from 14% at the beginning of July.

That seems about right to me.  The candidate quality gap in this race is just tremendous and Ryan has a big fundraising advantage.

[Senator Incitatus]

Vance could die right before the election, I guess.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.boltonsuperpac.com/poll_072822.php

John Bolton has Ryan ahead by 6 and Beasley up 3 Ha to Rs D's lead in all the open seats

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There's this website I've been checking lately, www.bluewavehq.com, that pulls numbers from PredictIt and converts them into percentages, and has a time series of how they change day by day.

Right now it's got Tim Ryan 23% chance to win, up from 14% at the beginning of July.

That seems about right to me.  The candidate quality gap in this race is just tremendous and Ryan has a big fundraising advantage.

No Ryan doesn't have a 23 percent he has an even chance, stop Doing the maps are blank on EDay