Does Tim Ryan have a chance to win?

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https://www.boltonsuperpac.com/poll_072822.php

John Bolton has Ryan ahead by 6 and Beasley up 3 Ha to Rs D's lead in all the open seats

Why would anyone trust John Bolton on anything?

[omar04]

I think Ryan will keep it close but the headwinds against him are too strong.

[TDAS04]

Yes.  A 5-10% chance is still a chance.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.boltonsuperpac.com/poll_072822.php

John Bolton has Ryan ahead by 6 and Beasley up 3 Ha to Rs D's lead in all the open seats

All the other polls have Ryan 46/41 anyways

Why would anyone trust John Bolton on anything?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes.  A 5-10% chance is still a chance.

Do you know the maps are blank on EDay there are no ratings on EDay, anyone can win except for the partisan states like Rand Paul will easily win any race can be competetive

The ratings said that D's would net gain H seats in 2020 we lost seats, unquestionably Rs are the big favs in the H but not the Senate, the D's are favs in Senate but H can be won back

[Yoda]

I'm starting to see a path for Ryan IF gas prices continue to drop steadily and get to ~$3/gallon, unemployment stays very low and we are not in a recession by Election Day, and trump announces his candidacy this fall.

[Brittain33]

Vance could die right before the election, I guess.

From our data, that has a 50/50 chance of improving Republican chances of retaining the seat (Ashcroft vs. Wellstone precedents.)

[Brittain33]

https://www.boltonsuperpac.com/poll_072822.php

John Bolton has Ryan ahead by 6 and Beasley up 3 Ha to Rs D's lead in all the open seats

Why would anyone trust John Bolton on anything?

Also, he finds Walker leading Warnock.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.boltonsuperpac.com/poll_072822.php

John Bolton has Ryan ahead by 6 and Beasley up 3 Ha to Rs D's lead in all the open seats

Why would anyone trust John Bolton on anything?

Also, he finds Walker leading Warnock.

That's why Ds need wave insurance and Beasley and Ryan are competetive WI, PA gives D's 51 and NC, OH, GA gives D's 52 a Filibuster proof Senate providing D's keep the H but we have OH, WV and MT up in 24

But, if Kemp or Walker doesnt get 50 or Kennedy it's a Runoff anyways, if you look at the replies on Twitter it's the same replies we get from Atlas users alot from Atlasia that run for offices so they need R support I don't believe, that's why R users make R nut maps so they can get elected to offices

[Coldstream]

Vance is a creepy millionaire weirdo, Ryan is a perfect fit for the state. Maybe I have a higher opinion of the people of Ohio than most, but Ryan obviously has a better chance than the fundamentals suggest.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Vance could die right before the election, I guess.

That would probably only hurt Ryan lol

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

At this rate, given Vance's campaign, I think Ryan would have won if it was 2018 or 2012. But no, he doesn't have a chance given the fundamentals.

[Smash255]

Given the fundamentals of the state and the year (even if things improve a bit for Democrats) it is very unlikely that Ryan wins.  With that said, he still has a small chance as Vance damaging himself to the point it costs him the seat isn't out of the realm of possibility.

[Orser67]

I'm in the "Ryan has a 5% chance" camp. Obviously, winning in Ohio in a Democratic mid-term is an extremely heavy lift, but despite a decline in split ticket voting, we've seen some Senate candidate defy partisan lean and/or mid-term dynamics over the last decade (e.g. Jason Kander '16, Rick Scott '18, Susan Collins '20).