Will the Senate be called on Election Night?

[Xing]

Even though I currently think Republicans end up with 54 seats, I think the answer is “no.” It’s hard to see several of the vulnerable Democratic seats being called quickly enough. Georgia has the 50% threshold, plus Atlanta takes a while to come in, so that one won’t likely get called early. I don’t think Hassan will lose by much if she loses at all, so an early Republican call there is unlikely. Arizona and Nevada close much later, not to mention it can take a while to count all of the early votes, so good chance we won’t know the result for sure in either of those races on Election Night. Even if one of these seats were called earlier, there’s also a good chance Pennsylvania takes a while to call.

And if Democrats were to somehow overperform enough to hold the Senate, I also don’t see any way that it would be confirmed on Election Night for the aforementioned reasons.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Depends what you mean by election night cause I still count anything till 3 AM ET as Election Night

[Xing]

Depends what you mean by election night cause I still count anything till 3 AM ET as Election Night

Even so, I think votes would have to be counted much more quickly than normal for a call before then.

[MT Treasurer]

Yes, mostly because NV and AZ tend to count their votes very fast, and I don’t expect either race to be decided by a razor-thin margin (although AZ will probably be closer than NV). WI/NC (esp. the latter) should also be called fairly early, and that’s all the GOP needs.

[S019]

I remember NV and AZ taking a while to be called in both 2016 and 2018 and also in 2020, so I'm going to say no.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are likely to hold the S if we don't win PA, WI or OH it won't be called it would go to a runoff in GA but D's are favored in  those states right now and Biden won Maricopa CTY anyways last time and Lake is losing anyways

[Xing]

Yes, mostly because NV and AZ tend to count their votes very fast, and I don’t expect either race to be decided by a razor-thin margin (although AZ will probably be closer than NV). WI/NC (esp. the latter) should also be called fairly early, and that’s all the GOP needs.

AZ took a long time to count its votes in 2018, and the margin changed quite a bit. Same thing happened in 2020, though that can be partially explained by increased early voting due to COVID. And if my memory serves me correctly, NV-GOV wasn’t called until the next morning, even though it was a 4-point margin, so I don’t think they’d need to be razor-thin to take a bit to call.

[wbrocks67]

Given that PA is likely to be 2020-style close, and that took 4 days, probably not. Not sure about the other states but PA is gonna be another mess of a count (thanks to Republicans in the state legislature)

[Politician]

No, but it will be obvious by the end of election night Republicans will win.

[Minnesota Mike]

Depends what you mean by election night cause I still count anything till 3 AM ET as Election Night

I view election night as before the sun comes up.

[Real Texan Politics]

Yes, even if not all battleground seats are called

[JGibson]

Nope.

[xavier110]

Yes, mostly because NV and AZ tend to count their votes very fast, and I don’t expect either race to be decided by a razor-thin margin (although AZ will probably be closer than NV). WI/NC (esp. the latter) should also be called fairly early, and that’s all the GOP needs.

If early voting in the primary here is any indication, every freaking Republican is going to vote on Election Day, which will complicate calling races. Kelly could win early vote drop by a good bit.

[Respect and Compassion]

Florida will definitely be called for Rubio at 8:00PM Eastern. Technically one could call it for him before that, but calls aren't made until the entire state closes so we'd have to wait until the panhandle closes.

North Carolina will be called for Budd at some point before 10:00PM. It will be a high single digit, perhaps even a double digit win.

Ohio will be called for Vance at some point before 10:00PM. Trump took the lead from Biden in Ohio at around 9:50PM, I expect Vance to overperform by enough to have it called relatively early.

Wisconsin will be called for Ron Johnson at some point before midnight, I expect a win by at least 4 points.

I expect the Republican candidate to win New Hampshire by between 1% and 3%. I suspect the various towns will demonstrate decently large Republican swings from the 2020 Presidential result but perhaps News outlets will wait a while, perhaps past midnight.

Arizona could be called for Masters before midnight eastern. I suspect that he'll overperform the early vote drop compared to Trump by enough that when the early results come in, one can prognosticate that he will win by at least 4 or more.

When Arizona gets called for Masters (let's say around 11:30PM eastern), that would mean that Democrats would have to flip Pennsylvania to balance it out. However, I expect results nationwide imply enough of a Republican overperformance to the polls that it's likely that Nevada is expected to go for Laxalt at some point after midnight. The early Nevada results may show a slight lead for Catherine Cortez-Masto, but in the context of Red Wave results elsewhere in the nation I'd expect Nevada to be called for Laxalt soon after the early results come in.

Even if Oz wins Pennsylvania by high single digits it could be that news outlets will want to be careful calling it, so it may take over a day

Ergo, even without Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, I expect Nevada to be called by "election night" before 3:00AM eastern / 12:00AM west coast. That would lead to the Senate being called for the Republicans.

Could it be called sometime earlier? Well that depends on whether news outlets are confident enough to project based on early results and exit poll data. Arizona, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire could be called before midnight eastern based on early results if the exit polls are favorable enough for the Republicans.

[Xing]

Bump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes when Ryan wins the seat or Barnes it will solidify 51 votes

We have a bunch of wave insurance seats it's over if FL, SD, IA, MO are called well before the WC votes in CA, WA and AZ

NV will be called quickly for CCM

[Ferguson97]

No, it won't be called until December, because control of the Senate will be determined by the Georgia runoff.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Probably not given how 2 races that are likely to be close are on the western half of teh US (AZ and NV) plus those states tend to count slow and also are hard to analyze as well as some other states cause so much vote is from one mega-county which decreases confidence in how the outstanding vote will skew hence taking it longer to call. If Clark County was split into 10 regions, NV likely could've been called a lot sooner.

[UncleSam]

Probably not. I expect Vance, Budd, and Rubio to win while Hassan wins in terms of what can be called early (I.e. by 11 EST). Georgia is probably going to a runoff or will require a lot of vote trickle in Atlanta to determine the winner, and PA and WI who knows but seems at this point like Fetterman will win in PA before it gets too late there and anybodys’ guess but WI should be callable on election night either way.

Depending on those results, the west may or may not decide control. AZ / NV will not be called on election night imo so if it comes down to them we will be waiting until Wednesday (and potentially longer for AZ). If Fetterman wins while GA goes to a runoff then I don’t see any scenario where Rs get the majority on election night, and Dems could only get it by also taking WI and at least one other race (maybe NC).

Either way seems like the answer is pretty clearly ‘no’ in terms of likely outcomes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Probably not given how 2 races that are likely to be close are on the western half of teh US (AZ and NV) plus those states tend to count slow and also are hard to analyze as well as some other states cause so much vote is from one mega-county which decreases confidence in how the outstanding vote will skew hence taking it longer to call. If Clark County was split into 10 regions, NV likely could've been called a lot sooner.

If D's win a wave insurance seat OH, SD, FL NC IA it will be called because we will win our CA, WA, AZ, NV and WA seat but they will wait til all the WC states are called but you believe in R nut maps and the two special election shows otherwise

SD is in play this time Kristi Noem is under  investigation, just like Trump is dragging down the R brand as you say D's have a 1/3 chance of winning it

If we win SD Gov Thune will LOSE, you weren't on the forum when we won ND in 2012

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, it won't be called until December, because control of the Senate will be determined by the Georgia runoff.

No it won't because we are gonna win WI

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yes, for the Dems

[windjammer]

Yes. I don't expect the races to be close. Either the democrats win or the republicans do. But this won't be close

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

All I know is this- if Masters wins it will not be called on election night. It will be close if he wins and AZ has a d counting bias

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All I know is this- if Masters wins it will not be called on election night. It will be close if he wins and AZ has a d counting bias

Lol Masters won't beat Kelly he has lost every poll CCM will win 51/49 and Kelly ,51/48 just like Biden won in 2020 and Hillary won NV 51)49