Rate Virginia

[ElectionsGuy]

Lean D. Right now, this is my estimated prediction

McAuliffe: 52.0%
Youngkin: 47.5%

Earlier, I expected a result somewhere right between 2013 and 2017. More Dem than 2013, because the state has trended more Democratic since then, and more Republican than 2017 because we're in a less favorable environment to Democrats. But now I'm slightly tightening that based on tightening polls and Biden's degrading approval. What's funny is polls overestimated McAuliffe when he ran in 2013, but underestimated Northam in 2017. In 2013, it was odd that polls indicated McAuliffe would do better than Obama when his approval was underwater and in an off-year environment, and it turned out the polls were off. And, in 2017, given Donald Trump's approval nationwide was in the gutter (below 40%) it made no sense that a Democrat would win the state by less than Hillary Clinton did over Trump in an odd-year election. The fundamentals usually win out. This time, I think the polls will actually be pretty accurate because the fundamentals point to a small to mid-size Dem win. Biden's approval is badly underwater nationally (but probably slightly underwater or even in Virginia) and polling has overestimated Democrats less in states with large black populations and large college-educated populations, and Virginia has large chunks of both of those. What we should be looking for here is the margin. The closer it is, the worse it is for Dems going into '22, but an upper single-digit victory would be a sigh of relief for them.

I will say though, if Youngkin does end up winning this race (and if he will, it'll be narrowly), it'll be very interesting to see the reaction (and panic) from national Dems. A more than 10 point shift from 2020 can't translate into anything good for 2022.

[Roll Roons]

McAuliffe winning by 4-5 seems right.

[Gass3268]

Lean T-Mack, but closer to Likely

[Matty]

Lean T-Mack, but closer to Likely

This is correct.

It’s going to be very very close to Hillary 2016 result

[Spectator]

The same story we will probably see in every Virginia gubernatorial race for the next few decades. Some gaslighting about how supposedly the Republican is REALLY going to win THIS time, only for the Democrat to win by a solid margin because, well, it’s a blue state now, but people keep on acting like this is still the Virginia of 2004-5.

[Chips]

Lean McAuliffe. 51.2-47.3 I think.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Likely TMac. For margin, I'll say around 5-7%.

I feel this will be one of those where most folks will rate it more on margin than likelihood. As in "Lean D because I think T-Mac will only win by 2-3%" even if they give him a 95% chance of winning ("Because you never know!!1!")

[Skill and Chance]

Lean T-Mack, but closer to Likely

This is correct.

It’s going to be very very close to Hillary 2016 result

You think McAuliffe will do better than I think he will.  Wasn't expecting that.  I have McAuliffe +2-3, basically a repeat of 2013.  He would need some late momentum to get up to 2016 numbers.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe D, the map is gonna follow the Blue Wall, since Newsom won ye the same amount as he did in 2020, NATE SILVER BLUE WALL

I DONT KNOW WHATS GOING ON WITH POLLING IN KS, MI and NH but they're JUNKIE, since it will go bye the 304 blue wall

[sting in the rafters]

Likely D in confidence, Lean D in margin. The wall Ds have baked in NOVA is just too high.

[Sir Mohamed]

Hands down, Likely D.

I think McAuliffe will win by a margin of 5-7 pts.

[JustinSmith]

My mid-October estimate:
McAuliffe: 1,566,580 votes (51.43%)
Youngkin: 1,343,549 votes (44.11%)
Blanding: 12,788 votes (0.42%)

Will have one more estimate on November 1, one week before the election.

[beesley]

Lean/Likely McAuliffe. I'd guess McAuliffe wins by 4/5. Yes Virginia favours Dems for sure, but that doesn't prevent the race from being a bit closer.

[Non Swing Voter]

LOL.  There is no realistic chance of Youngkin "winning narrowly" and thus this is Likely D.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

McAuliffe by 8. This is not particularly competitive.

[KaiserDave]

McAuliffe by 8. This is not particularly competitive.

Nailed it. Safe D folks.

[Fetterman my beloved]

Lean McAullife, absolutely. Depending on how things develop, I could probably put it in likely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a Tossup now

[Schiff for Senate]

Safe McAuliffe; McAuliffe+7.2 or so.

EDIT: And before anyone tells me I'm overestimating McAuliffe, I say to you three words: Remember the recall. We saw what happened when the GOP was overestimated. Results are what matter and polarization will win the day, which is why my primary reference will be the 2020 presidential results - Biden won by 10 points. Fine, McAuliffe might not get that, but he won't underperform Biden by any more than 4 points, at most. But anyone who considers this race to be less than Safe McAuliffe, we'll see who turns out to be right when the results have come out. If anything, it's possible McAuliffe+7.2 is an underestimation. For now, though, that's what I'm sticking with.

[MT Treasurer]

My prediction is the same as yours.

Lean/Likely D, McAuliffe +4.5, with the county map identical to VA-PRES 2016. Democrats also win AG/LG, obviously.

If it’s a high single-digit margin for McAuliffe/Democrats and Youngkin even loses Virginia Beach and Chesterfield, alarm bells should be going off at the NRSC/NRCC. If Democrats somehow lose or only barely (<2 points) hold VA and underperform Biden substantially in NJ, they can kiss the House and Senate and most of their Trump/Biden-state governorships goodbye.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a Tossup

[Vice President Christian Man]

TMac 2-3 points

[Podgy the Bear]

McAuliffe by 5-6.  Youngkin has diificulty appealing simultaneously to Trump Republicans and to swing voters, and it's showing.

[OSR stands with Israel]

My prediction is the same as yours.

Lean/Likely D, McAuliffe +4.5, with the county map identical to VA-PRES 2016. Democrats also win AG/LG, obviously.

If it’s a high single-digit margin for McAuliffe/Democrats and Youngkin even loses Virginia Beach and Chesterfield, alarm bells should be going off at the NRSC/NRCC. If Democrats somehow lose or only barely (<2 points) hold VA and underperform Biden substantially in NJ, they can kiss the House and Senate and most of their Trump/Biden-state governorships goodbye.

[Xing]

Likely D, closer to Safe than Lean, McAuliffe wins 52-46. Of course, this likely doesn't tell us much about 2022, since the environment could change drastically between now and then, and Virginia is a solidly Democratic state at this point, so even if McAuliffe gets close to Biden's margin, I wouldn't read too much into it. I'd only say it's unequivocally a bad sign for Democrats if McAuliffe loses, and a bad sign for Republicans if he wins by more than Warner.