Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Pres Mike]

no its not suspended for a few years.

Well, then this election is essentially meaningless.

That’s not true. Lula can still protect the Amazon rainforest.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

Well, I wrong in saying that Bolsonaro would win. Congrats to Lula.

However, these results aren't "exciting", IMO. A 50/50 election and Brazil's National Congress is firmly in the grip of Bolsonaro-acolytes.

At least, the destruction of the Amazon is temporarily suspended for a few years.

no its not suspended for a few years.

I’m with New Frontier on this one. The federal legislative and state-level first round results weren’t exactly great for the (center)-left. Very reminiscent of US 2020.

no its not suspended for a few years.

Well, then this election is essentially meaningless.

No what i meant was Lula will likely have a policy of lasting protections for it.

Hopefully you’re right on this one.

[Duke of York]

no its not suspended for a few years.

Well, then this election is essentially meaningless.

No what i meant was Lula will likely have a policy of lasting protections for it.

[Pivaru]

Minas has a bit of everything in Brazil, the southern regions are reminiscent of the southeast, the northern regions are remaniscent of the northeast, that's why whoever wins there, tends to win the nation.

Zema's political machine was able to close the gap for Bolsonaro by quite a bit, but yeah, it seems like it wasn't enough.

Side note, Zema is likely to try to become president in 2026, of the three people trying to carry the right wing banner (Tarcisio, Zema and Moro), I think he'd be the strongest.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) wins in Bahia. This is the most PT-friendly big state in Brazil, so this is a big win for them.

[Boobs]

Side note, Zema is likely to try to become president in 2026, of the three people trying to carry the right wing banner (Tarcisio, Zema and Moro), I think he'd be the strongest.

Tebet and Leite for the centrao, but who is likely to be the left/PT standard-bearer?

[jaichind]

Does this sort of defeat margin mean that Bolsonaro should have enough political capital to try to run in 2026 ?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Lula: 59,001,999 (50.77%)
Bolsonaro: 57,213,168 (49.23%)
97.96% REPORTING

[Mike88]

Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) wins in Bahia. This is the most PT-friendly big state in Brazil, so this is a big win for them.

Still, it was close. 52.6% to ACM Neto's 47.4%.

[Alben Barkley]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-30/lula-poised-to-win-brazil-s-election-pollster-datafolha-says

Results below. Lula is up by nearly 2 million, 50.77-49.23%, with over 98% of the vote in.

https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/app/index.html#/eleicao/resultados

[Aurelius]

Has Bolsonaro started throwing a fit yet?

[Pivaru]

Side note, Zema is likely to try to become president in 2026, of the three people trying to carry the right wing banner (Tarcisio, Zema and Moro), I think he'd be the strongest.

Tebet and Leite for the centrao, but who is likely to be the left/PT standard-bearer?

No idea, this is actually a very common critique to PT (even from the left), they struggle to create non-Lula leaderships. Maybe they'll try to make Haddad a minister during Lula's government to make him a candidate in 2026? Maybe they'll try to get Bahia governor and possible minister of the economy Rui Costa the 2026 candidate, not sure tbh. Personally, I think they need to forget Haddad, I don't really dislike the guy but I just don't think he is a strong candidate.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) wins in Bahia. This is the most PT-friendly big state in Brazil, so this is a big win for them.

Still, it was close.

For sure. If it wasn't this close, it would have been called a long time ago.

[Silent Hunter]

Excellent news.

[Alben Barkley]

Excellent news.

The polls seem to have underestimated Bolsonaro though. There actually seem to be a lot of parallels here to 2020 US, and I wouldn't be surprised if Bolsonaro acts like Trump after that election as well...

Also this is the closest election in Brazil history and the first time an incumbent president has ever lost.

[Pivaru]

Does this sort of defeat margin mean that Bolsonaro should have enough political capital to try to run in 2026 ?

He could, but I think there's a non-negligible chance he decides to make Tarcisio run for the presidency instead.

There are rumors he actually promissed Zema he wouldn't support any specific right wing candidate in the first round in 2026, but I doubt he keeps his word.

[Crumpets]

Atlas-style map



Looks like the only state Bolsonaro has flipped since the first round is Amapá, which makes sense, since that was one of Tebet's best states in the first round. And Bolsonaro's current lead there is only 2.8%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well glad the absolute worst outcome has been avoided. Still, not exactly a result to fill us with confidence about the future. We'll see how things go in the next 4 years, I guess (hoping Bolsonaro doesn't do a coup).

[Mike88]

Found a city in MG, Nanuque, with these results:

10,130 Bolsonaro
10,129 Lula

There's still some areas to be counted in Minas, and it's still close, close, close.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

It’s officially 100% over. Lula’s lead has outpaced the uncounted votes.

[Oakvale]

suspend democracy asap

How about no.

only someone who hates freedom would say no

[omar04]

https://twitter.com/LulaOficial/status/1586852959937302528

[Saint Milei]

Stop derailing the thread with loaded questions and saying "cope". This is not a thread debating whether suspending elections is good or bad. I simply voiced my frustration with the results.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Lula: 59,563,912 (50.83%)
Bolsonaro: 57,627,462 (49.17%)
98.81% REPORTING

GLOBO CALLS IT

[Mike88]

Lula is officially elected.