Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Duke of York]

Funnily enough, Bolsonaro is currently leading in the two bellwether states, Minas Gerais and Amazonas. If Lula does end up losing both states, it will be the first time they've voted for a loser since the redemocratization of Brazil in the 80's (assuming he wins the presidential election, of course, and that seems likely).

Lula really has to thank the people from the northeast for giving him some Saddam Hussein-like margins there.

Amazonas zoomed left in the late count in the first round, and is rapidly moving that way once again, so I expect Lula narrowly wins there in the end.

how much is left to count there?

[Duke of York]

I can't imagine Bolsonaro will accept the results if it stays anywhere near this close.

he won't. Hes made it clear if he loses its due to fraud.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Can someone who's more knowledgeable about Brazilian politics than me give a summary of how the Dobbs decision affected the results? I assume it had a big impact on PUT turnout, sure, but is it likely that moderate "Never Bolsonaro" suburban voters swung to Lula because of this? I'm working on a piece for CNN.

Pro-choice moderates swung behind Lula in the wake of the Supreme Court, filled with Bolsonaro appointees that were inclined to outlaw abortion. That's what it is.

[Mexican Wolf]

Funnily enough, Bolsonaro is currently leading in the two bellwether states, Minas Gerais and Amazonas. If Lula does end up losing both states, it will be the first time they've voted for a loser since the redemocratization of Brazil in the 80's (assuming he wins the presidential election, of course, and that seems likely).

Lula really has to thank the people from the northeast for giving him some Saddam Hussein-like margins there.

Amazonas zoomed left in the late count in the first round, and is rapidly moving that way once again, so I expect Lula narrowly wins there in the end.

how much is left to count there?

Looks like about 8% to go according to Bloomberg. Bolsonaro leads by 1,000 votes.

[Pres Mike]

Congratulations to President Elect Lula for saving Brazil from fascism and saving the lungs of the planet.

After spending time in jail wrong accused, this has to be satisfying. Plus between his six elections more votes have been casted for Lula than any other person in human history!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Eduardo Leite (PSDB) re-elected Governor of Rio Grande do Sul.

[Pivaru]

Eduardo Leite (PSDB) has been reelected in Rio Grande do Sul, defeating the Bolsonaro ally Onyx Lorenzoni (PL). Lorenzoni ran a pretty bad campaign all things considered, he said getting Covid was better than getting vaccineted, was homophobic, had a weird event in which he was unable to present a fiscal plan during a debate while being pressed to do so by Leite, etc.

57-43.

Leite is the first Rio Grande do Sul governor reelected in history.

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1586840286625288193
Lula narrowly takes the lead the late reporting states should favor him from what I heard this may be it

[Duke of York]

Funnily enough, Bolsonaro is currently leading in the two bellwether states, Minas Gerais and Amazonas. If Lula does end up losing both states, it will be the first time they've voted for a loser since the redemocratization of Brazil in the 80's (assuming he wins the presidential election, of course, and that seems likely).

Lula really has to thank the people from the northeast for giving him some Saddam Hussein-like margins there.

Amazonas zoomed left in the late count in the first round, and is rapidly moving that way once again, so I expect Lula narrowly wins there in the end.

how much is left to count there?

Looks like about 8% to go according to Bloomberg. Bolsonaro leads by 1,000 votes.

with a margin like that it probably flips.

[jeron]

Funnily enough, Bolsonaro is currently leading in the two bellwether states, Minas Gerais and Amazonas. If Lula does end up losing both states, it will be the first time they've voted for a loser since the redemocratization of Brazil in the 80's (assuming he wins the presidential election, of course, and that seems likely).

Lula really has to thank the people from the northeast for giving him some Saddam Hussein-like margins there.

Amazonas zoomed left in the late count in the first round, and is rapidly moving that way once again, so I expect Lula narrowly wins there in the end.

how much is left to count there?

Looks like about 8% to go according to Bloomberg. Bolsonaro leads by 1,000 votes.

No. Lula leads by a few thousand votes

[Mexican Wolf]

Funnily enough, Bolsonaro is currently leading in the two bellwether states, Minas Gerais and Amazonas. If Lula does end up losing both states, it will be the first time they've voted for a loser since the redemocratization of Brazil in the 80's (assuming he wins the presidential election, of course, and that seems likely).

Lula really has to thank the people from the northeast for giving him some Saddam Hussein-like margins there.

Amazonas zoomed left in the late count in the first round, and is rapidly moving that way once again, so I expect Lula narrowly wins there in the end.

how much is left to count there?

Looks like about 8% to go according to Bloomberg. Bolsonaro leads by 1,000 votes.

with a margin like that it probably flips.

Just did!

[Duke of York]

Congratulations to President Elect Lula for saving Brazil from fascism and saving the lungs of the planet.

After spending time in jail wrong accused, this has to be satisfying. Plus between his six elections more votes have been casted for Lula than any other person in human history!

hes not President elect yet.

[morgieb]

How likely is a coup? These results are alarmingly close.

[Pivaru]

In Santa Catarina, Jorginho Mello (PL), Bolsonaro's ally, has won the gubernatorial election with 70% of the vote, defeating Décio Lima (PT). Décio wasn't even expected to get into the second round, his defeat was always expected.

[Duke of York]

How likely is a coup? These results are alarmingly close.

The military has said they will not get involved.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Lula: 52,948,645 (50.50%)
Bolsonaro: 51,908,090 (49.50%)
87.5% REPORTING

1 MILLION VOTES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

[Sestak]

Lula's lead is over 1% and over 1M votes.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

suspend democracy asap

How about no.

[Duke of York]

suspend democracy asap

no

[Pivaru]

Lula flipped Amazonas, now he is leading with 50.2% of the vote there. Honestly, Amazonas' status as a bellwether always felt a lot more like them getting lucky and voting for the winner than Minas'. I can see an argument for why Minas is a bellwether, I can't really see one for Amazonas, but I digress, seems like they'll keep their status.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The divide in Amazonas between Manaus and the rest of the state remains huge. Bolsonaro only won 3 municipalities out of about three dozen. However, he's at 61% in Manaus. It seems that about 90% of his votes in Amazonas are coming from Manaus alone.

[Comrade Funk]

suspend democracy asap

cOnStItUtIoNaL RePuBlIc is political correct terminology for authoritarians too pussy to admit it in the open.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Almost 90% of the vote in. Lula’s lead is over 1% and a million votes.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The divide in Amazonas between Manaus and the rest of the state remains huge. Bolsonaro only won 3 municipalities out of about three dozen. However, he's at 61% in Manaus. It seems that about 90% of his votes in Amazonas are coming from Manaus alone.

Because Manaus is a city and the rest of the state is where people are having their ancestral homelands burned down.

[It's not just that you are a crook senator]

Minas is getting closer again as well