Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

SQUID FREE THE MORNING

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Let's go Squid!

I un-recommended this just so that I could recommend it twice.
(btw, Lula is "squid" in portuguese. I suspect you know that, just saying that for the benefit of everyone else)

I only found that out because my Google translator kept changing Lula to Squid when I went on the Globo site haha.

Same.

[Mike88]

Tarcísio elected as Governor of São Paulo.

[Pivaru]

Seems like incumbent governor and Lula ally Paulo Dantas (MDB) will win the election in Alagoas, defeating senator Rodrigo Cunha (UNIÃO). 52-48

This race was a proxy war between two important political families in Alagoas, the Calheiros family (supporting Dantas) and the Lira family (supporting Cunha). Dantas actually got into a big corruption scandal during the last few weeks of the campaign and was even removed from his position as governor. I thought this was an interesting election.

My friend who lives in Alagoas really wanted Cunha to win.

[Duke of York]

Tarcísio elected as Governor of São Paulo.

what party is he?

[Pivaru]

Tarcísio elected as Governor of São Paulo.

seems like Tarcisio overperformed the polls by a bit, the last ones by Datafolha and Ipec gave him 52 or 53.

[Orwell]

Tarcísio elected as Governor of São Paulo.

what party is he?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tarc%C3%ADsio_de_Freitas

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Tarcísio elected as Governor of São Paulo.

what party is he?

Republican (right). He defeated Fernando Haddad (PT, 2018 presidential candidate).

[Senator Incitatus]

suspend democracy asap

You say this as if democracy is a rule. What would it mean to "suspend democracy"?

[Pivaru]

Tarcísio elected as Governor of São Paulo.

what party is he?

Republicanos, he defeated former São Paulo mayor Fernando Haddad (PT). Tarcisio is a Bolsonaro ally and seen as his most likely political successor.

[win win]

lula wins barely and the polls were rigged (maybe same in ameirca?)
i never thought it was so competitive
i remember seeing lula +16 or  something a month ago before round 1

[Mike88]

Bolsonaro slightly ahead in MG, 50.1-49.9%.

Jerônimo (PT) elected in Bahia.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Well, I wrong in saying that Bolsonaro would win. Congrats to Lula.

However, these results aren't "exciting", IMO. A 50/50 election and Brazil's National Congress is firmly in the grip of Bolsonaro-acolytes.

At least, the destruction of the Amazon is temporarily suspended for a few years.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

suspend democracy asap

You say this as if democracy is a rule. What would it mean to "suspend democracy"?

Send democracy home for a few days to think about what it did. 

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Lula: 57,258,064 (50.66%)
Bolsonaro: 55,770,143 (49.34%)
95.21% REPORTING

lula wins barely and the polls were rigged (maybe same in ameirca?)
i never thought it was so competitive
i remember seeing lula +16 or  something a month ago before round 1

No.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Tarcísio elected as Governor of São Paulo.

what party is he?

Republicanos, he defeated former São Paulo mayor Fernando Haddad (PT). Tarcisio is a Bolsonaro ally and seen as his most likely political successor.

So Sao Paulo state elects a non-PSDB governor.
How much of a political earthquake is that?

[Pivaru]

Now that I think about it, seems like Paraná Pesquisas will be the polling company that got the closest to the final result. They generally tend to favor the right, but in the first round they got fairly close and their final poll before the second round was something like Lula 50.5 - Bolsonaro 49.5.

I don't expect companies like Globo to take them seriously still, but y'know, just something to think about.

[Duke of York]

Well, I wrong in saying that Bolsonaro would win. Congrats to Lula.

However, these results aren't "exciting", IMO. A 50/50 election and Brazil's National Congress is firmly in the grip of Bolsonaro-acolytes.

At least, the destruction of the Amazon is temporarily suspended for a few years.

no its not suspended for a few years.

[Pivaru]

Tarcísio elected as Governor of São Paulo.

what party is he?

Republicanos, he defeated former São Paulo mayor Fernando Haddad (PT). Tarcisio is a Bolsonaro ally and seen as his most likely political successor.

So Sao Paulo state elects a non-PSDB governor.
How much of a political earthquake is that?

Very big, PSDB's last hope for being a relevant party now is Eduardo Leite in Rio Grande do Sul and, to a lesser extent, Raquel Lyra and Riedel in Pernambuco and Mato Grosso do Sul respectively. The party has truly been reduced to the status of being just one more centrão party.

[Pivaru]

The electoral court has called the Bahia gubernatorial race for Jeronimo Rodrigues (PT), defeating the former popular governor of Salvador ACM Neto (UNIÃO). Neto was the favorite during the entire first round, but after Jeronimo was able to tie his image to Lula, the race tightened. On election day, Jeronimo was 50k votes short of winning outright, it was a hard race for Neto to win from that point onward.

This is PT's 5th consecutive victory in the state.

52-48

This was the last gubernatorial race remaining to be called, now only the presidential race is remaining.

[Pres Mike]

lula wins barely and the polls were rigged (maybe same in ameirca?)
i never thought it was so competitive
i remember seeing lula +16 or  something a month ago before round 1

The Lula +16 polls had a dozen candidates and a huge undecided vote. If Lula polled 48% and Bolso was 32%, that would be +16.

The first round polls were accurate about Lula totals. They predicted around 47-50%. They were off for Bolso. They predicted 32-36%, when he got 43%. He basically ate up the undecided vote. Like America, people who told pollsters they were undecided probably just didn’t want to look racist

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Tarcísio elected as Governor of São Paulo.

what party is he?

Republicanos, he defeated former São Paulo mayor Fernando Haddad (PT). Tarcisio is a Bolsonaro ally and seen as his most likely political successor.

So Sao Paulo state elects a non-PSDB governor.
How much of a political earthquake is that?

Very big, PSDB's last hope for being a relevant party now is Eduardo Leite in Rio Grande do Sul and, to a lesser extent, Raquel Lyra and Riedel in Pernambuco and Mato Grosso do Sul respectively. The party has truly been reduced to the status of being just one more centrão party.

It seems like undermining the PSDB stronghold on Sao Paulo could be one of Bolsonaro's major legacies.

[Boobs]

Bolsonaro's lead in Minas Gerais is down to fewer than 8,000 votes (0.06%), so it may retain its bellwether status after all.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

no its not suspended for a few years.

Well, then this election is essentially meaningless.

[It's not just that you are a crook senator]

Bolsonaro's lead in Minas Gerais is down to fewer than 8,000 votes (0.06%), so it may retain its bellwether status after all.

It just flipped