Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Obrigado, Brasil! Amor desde America!

[KaiserDave]

LULA LA

[Hash]

We can't ask for much in the 2020s but the defeat of fascist scum is always to be celebrated.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Take your rainforest-hating ass home, Jair!

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/henryolseneppc/status/1586837448067321856

[SPQR]

I guess it's safe to celebrate now?

[Duke of York]

I guess it's safe to celebrate now?

not yet.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

PATRIOTS IN CONTROL

[omar04]

aaaand Lula leads:

https://twitter.com/eleicoesbot2022/status/1586836445196476416

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WQNPw46cyA

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A couple years ago I made a poll asking who was the worst democratic leader of Trump, Netanyahu, Duterte and Bolsonaro.

We've cleaned up well.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Lula: 43,617,271 (50.13%)
Bolsonaro: 43,388,178 (49.87%)
73.45% REPORTING

[Pivaru]

Another race called, João Azevedo (PSB) has been reelected governor of Paraiba, defeating Pedro Cunha Lima (PSDB), a member of a popular political family from the state. 52 - 48

[Antonio the Sixth]

The counting bias seems to be a bit different from last time, so I wouldn't necessarily celebrate yet (and it looks like it will be in the 51-49 range either way) but thank goodness Lula is probably winning.

[brucejoel99]

A couple years ago I made a poll asking who was the worst democratic leader of Trump, Netanyahu, Duterte and Bolsonaro.

We've cleaned up well.

Give Bibi like 48 hours.

(Also, the Philippines finds itself stuck with a President Marcos, which wasn't exactly great the last time around.)

[Duke of York]

Lula: 43,617,271 (50.13%)
Bolsonaro: 43,388,178 (49.87%)
73.45% REPORTING

How likely is it Lula wins?

[MR DARK BRANDON]

PATRIOTS IN CONTROL

[Pivaru]

Funnily enough, Bolsonaro is currently leading in the two bellwether states, Minas Gerais and Amazonas. If Lula does end up losing both states, it will be the first time they've voted for a loser since the redemocratization of Brazil in the 80's (assuming he wins the presidential election, of course, and that seems likely).

Lula really has to thank the people from the northeast for giving him some Saddam Hussein-like margins there.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

[Pivaru]

In Amazonas, incumbent governor Wilson Lima (UNIÃO), a Bolsonaro ally, has been reelected with 57% of the vote, defeating the Lula ally, senator Eduardo Braga (MDB).

[icc]

Funnily enough, Bolsonaro is currently leading in the two bellwether states, Minas Gerais and Amazonas. If Lula does end up losing both states, it will be the first time they've voted for a loser since the redemocratization of Brazil in the 80's (assuming he wins the presidential election, of course, and that seems likely).

Lula really has to thank the people from the northeast for giving him some Saddam Hussein-like margins there.

Amazonas zoomed left in the late count in the first round, and is rapidly moving that way once again, so I expect Lula narrowly wins there in the end.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Lula: 46,147,712 (50.23%)
Bolsonaro: 45,726,975 (49.77%)
77.50% REPORTING

Lula: 43,617,271 (50.13%)
Bolsonaro: 43,388,178 (49.87%)
73.45% REPORTING

How likely is it Lula wins?

Yes.

[Eraserhead]

I can't imagine Bolsonaro will accept the results if it stays anywhere near this close.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

F*** fascism.

[Oakvale]

Can someone who's more knowledgeable about Brazilian politics than me give a summary of how the Dobbs decision affected the results? I assume it had a big impact on PT turnout, sure, but is it likely that moderate "Never Bolsonaro" suburban voters swung to Lula because of this? I'm working on a piece for CNN.

[Double Carpet]

Lula: 43,617,271 (50.13%)
Bolsonaro: 43,388,178 (49.87%)
73.45% REPORTING

How likely is it Lula wins?

Well Bolsonaro is 25-1 on Betfair.