2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[Pericles]

Odd comments from Grenier saying that Singh is comparable to Jack Layton since the latter apparently ‘tread water’ for his first two elections. Layton doubled the NDP’s vote and seat count in three years, taking it from single digits and near minor party status to being a serious player again. Singh has presided over a net loss of votes and seats over the course of four years. Whilst I suppose there’s an argument for keeping him on due to having the best approval ratings of any major party leader, he’s no Jack Layton, sir.

To be fair, once you ignore Quebec it's treading water. Not that this is a good outcome.

[jaichind]

In Quebec it seems BQ out-LPC the LPC.  If the current margins hold it seems BQ would have beaten LPC in seat count despite a lower vote share than LPC.

[warandwar]

Major issue with the NDP is that, once in power, they do not govern in a way that lives up to their federal promises. It's noticeable that Horgan and Notley have had no coattails here. In this context a personal campaign around a fairly popular leader makes sense, but that didn't work either. I don't think a change of leadership would help here. There needs to be a fundamental change in the federal party's objectives. They need to figure out their base that wins them provinicial seats (working class, indigenous, young folks) and act like the Bloc - if its good we vote yes, if its bad for them we vote no.

[DC Al Fine]

Any chance that the mail-in vote might flip one or two seats for the NDP? Since they're just barely trailing in a few right now.

CBC has the NDP narrowly trailing in four seats that haven't been called yet: Davenport, Spadina-Fort York, and Hamilton Mountain in Ontario, plus Vancouver Granville in BC.

They also narrowly lead Nanaimo-Ladysmith which could flip the other way.

[Pericles]

In Quebec it seems BQ out-LPC the LPC.  If the current margins hold it seems BQ would have beaten LPC in seat count despite a lower vote share than LPC.

FPP has been a giant sh*tshow this election-PV losers winning everywhere and crazy vote splits spoiling the vote everywhere. It really makes one grateful not to be living under that system.

[lilTommy]

Singh should of course go, after two disastrous elections in a row now, but there is nothing NDP voters love more than losing while feeling superior about themselves, so they will of course keep him.

This is right. On CBC the NDP woman they had was talking about how proud everyone was of Jagmeet; it doesn't matter whether they won or not, what was important was that they made such a great stand by making the turban man their leader. It's the attitude that comes from being in permanent opposition. Nobody got into the NDP because they wanted to win, so nobody can even imagine what winning would be like. It's not surprising that Rachel Notley has tended to keep her distance from the federal NDP, because she is a winner and they are losers.

Speaking as the person who first sounded a "could the NDP underperform 2019?" note, let me say this:  "disastrous" is an overstatement.  If you want "disastrous" in the bigger scheme of things, look to Audrey McLaughlin in 1993, or to the Mulcair tailspin over the course of the 2015 campaign.  And yes, this result highlighted a certain all-surface-no-guts element to the Jagmeet campaign--and in a weird way, I think PPC energy-hogging plowed a big mound of dirt on top of Jagmeetian "positivity" over the course of the campaign.  Otherwise, "bittersweet" might be the more fitting term, not too much different from the Douglas/Lewis leadership era--or else you might as well suggest that the federal NDP's very existence has been one continuous disaster (2011 excepted) for six decades running, and more if you include the CCF.

Painting this in blunt-testosterone winners vs losers terms betrays too much conditioning within hyper-binary systems a la the US or Australia.  I prefer my electoral politics gynaecological over phallic, thank you.

Still feeling this way? I’m waking up to the NDP being at 25, which is frankly pitiful given all the potential upside they had this year. I wasn’t thrilled when I was going to bed with them at 29, but now I’m actually upset.

I probably preemptively insulated myself through my prior "could the NDP underperform 2019?" speculation.  And again:  when all is said and done, more bittersweet than "disastrous", much less "two disastrous elections in a row".

Still, I agree that there's a *bit* of delusionality among partisans.  And while I've suggested that Layton was himself prone to novelty gimmicks, at least he set out to build an organizational foundation "where it counts", and a lot of that as a carryover from his latter-day approach to municipal politics, setting up alliances and seeking common ground in unlikely places.  Whereas Jagmeet and his team seem more adept at whipping up millennial-friendly pixie dust than that kind of Laytonesque meat-and-potatoes kitchen-table fare (and millennials and post-millennials are too "lateral" a demo for the "verticality" that a FPTP electoral system demands).  Too much AOC, not enough "2016 Bernie".  The result being that the *actual* unsexy ground-level riding-by-riding party infrastructure winds up being undernourished--and of course, Covid concerns don't presently help; perhaps they were hoping the pixie dust could compensate for necessarily thwarted groundwork.

Let's presume the NDP *does* clue into that deficiency.  And if Jagmeet is *still* not the right vehicle (perhaps because it'd be hard to get him to do meat-and-potatoes without putting a cute "Punjabi" spin on it?), then as future leadership goes...anyone for Avi Lewis?  (Seriously.  He finished an awfully strong 3rd in a universally-agreed-upon hopeless cause, *probably/perhaps* as a preview to a future run in a more viable riding--and on top of that, his family bloodline practically *codified* a certain characteristically "NDP" hyperintensive street-level voter-identification approach to electoral politics.)

I'm not sure Avi Lewis is the Laytonesque alternative to Singh, and especially because this is a minority parliament where the NDP is likely to play a big role, I'm not sure picking an extra-parliamentary leader (again) is a good call.

Charlie Angus is the name everyone's throwing around, he has this "straight-talkin' jack" persona which contrasts well with Trudeau. Or if they really want to call back to Layton and make gains in Quebec, Boulerice seems like the obvious pick. Nathan Cullen could be a good pick, but I don't imagine he wants to throw away his job in BC as a majority government minister in exchange for leading the federal party. Maybe Jenny Kwan, Peter Julian, or Don Davies from the Vancouver area? Maybe Leah Gazan from Winnipeg?

But in all honesty, I don't think Singh goes.

Avi is very well liked within the party and its been mentioned his lineage so there. But that's the call, if the Liberals had won a majority the NDP would have been in a better place to have an extra-parliamentary leader. Not now, when as you know we could go back to the polls next year. I also think we may see Avi run in one of the seats held by one of the longer serving BC NDP MPs, say New West-Burnaby (Julien, elected in 2004) or Vancouver-Kingsway (Davies, from 2008) or perhaps Burnaby North-Seymour or Vancouver Centre (If Hedy decides to retire)

I think Singh is safe, given we do not know the final results. I am hoping the NDP manages to pick up 3 (my best hope would be 7) with mail-ins, but we will have to see.

IF we are looking at potential leaders, the No's would be Kwan and Davies, I don't see them having leadership aspirations. Julien tried and while he's a fantastic MP, very knowledgeable, he tried and we (the NDP members) realized he's not very charismatic at all, super nice though, just flat.  
Cullen I'd say no, I think he see's his future in BC politics, and potentially a leadership role there.
Ashton, I'd say no; she tried and pulled in a strong second showing, but has had some issues so since then. She's likely back a different left candidate

- Boulerice I could see; did not run in 2017 leadership but he has a strong personal following, from Quebec, from the left of the party (good and bad there)
- Gazan would be very interesting, I'd put her in the I hope she does. She speaks very well and is passionate, also from the left of the party and the 2019 crew, and the Prairies; she'd need to try and tap into that prairie progressive populism of old. But if the party found that some voters had issues with Singh being not white, that pool will still have issues with Gazan. Also, I don't know about her French? HoC says English & French.
- An outsider would be Matthew Green from Hamilton Centre. Experienced, still new from and the 2019 crew. Could focus on that working class voter that the NDP needs to pull back from the slide to the CPC. Also from the left of the party.
I'm kind of struggling outside of that, perhaps Heather McPherson from Edmonton, would be a more moderate candidate and from Alberta. I don't believe any of the other MPs have the persona to carry the party really.

[MaxQue]

Another reminder that Matthew Green has refused to condemn a professor (Amir Attaran) who called Quebec white supremacist.

He is ultra-woke and see everything through racial lens. Great pick if you want to lose both Quebec and Northern Ontario.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Singh should of course go, after two disastrous elections in a row now, but there is nothing NDP voters love more than losing while feeling superior about themselves, so they will of course keep him.

This is right. On CBC the NDP woman they had was talking about how proud everyone was of Jagmeet; it doesn't matter whether they won or not, what was important was that they made such a great stand by making the turban man their leader. It's the attitude that comes from being in permanent opposition. Nobody got into the NDP because they wanted to win, so nobody can even imagine what winning would be like. It's not surprising that Rachel Notley has tended to keep her distance from the federal NDP, because she is a winner and they are losers.

Speaking as the person who first sounded a "could the NDP underperform 2019?" note, let me say this:  "disastrous" is an overstatement.  If you want "disastrous" in the bigger scheme of things, look to Audrey McLaughlin in 1993, or to the Mulcair tailspin over the course of the 2015 campaign.  And yes, this result highlighted a certain all-surface-no-guts element to the Jagmeet campaign--and in a weird way, I think PPC energy-hogging plowed a big mound of dirt on top of Jagmeetian "positivity" over the course of the campaign.  Otherwise, "bittersweet" might be the more fitting term, not too much different from the Douglas/Lewis leadership era--or else you might as well suggest that the federal NDP's very existence has been one continuous disaster (2011 excepted) for six decades running, and more if you include the CCF.

Painting this in blunt-testosterone winners vs losers terms betrays too much conditioning within hyper-binary systems a la the US or Australia.  I prefer my electoral politics gynaecological over phallic, thank you.

Still feeling this way? I’m waking up to the NDP being at 25, which is frankly pitiful given all the potential upside they had this year. I wasn’t thrilled when I was going to bed with them at 29, but now I’m actually upset.

I probably preemptively insulated myself through my prior "could the NDP underperform 2019?" speculation.  And again:  when all is said and done, more bittersweet than "disastrous", much less "two disastrous elections in a row".

Still, I agree that there's a *bit* of delusionality among partisans.  And while I've suggested that Layton was himself prone to novelty gimmicks, at least he set out to build an organizational foundation "where it counts", and a lot of that as a carryover from his latter-day approach to municipal politics, setting up alliances and seeking common ground in unlikely places.  Whereas Jagmeet and his team seem more adept at whipping up millennial-friendly pixie dust than that kind of Laytonesque meat-and-potatoes kitchen-table fare (and millennials and post-millennials are too "lateral" a demo for the "verticality" that a FPTP electoral system demands).  Too much AOC, not enough "2016 Bernie".  The result being that the *actual* unsexy ground-level riding-by-riding party infrastructure winds up being undernourished--and of course, Covid concerns don't presently help; perhaps they were hoping the pixie dust could compensate for necessarily thwarted groundwork.

Let's presume the NDP *does* clue into that deficiency.  And if Jagmeet is *still* not the right vehicle (perhaps because it'd be hard to get him to do meat-and-potatoes without putting a cute "Punjabi" spin on it?), then as future leadership goes...anyone for Avi Lewis?  (Seriously.  He finished an awfully strong 3rd in a universally-agreed-upon hopeless cause, *probably/perhaps* as a preview to a future run in a more viable riding--and on top of that, his family bloodline practically *codified* a certain characteristically "NDP" hyperintensive street-level voter-identification approach to electoral politics.)

I'm not sure Avi Lewis is the Laytonesque alternative to Singh, and especially because this is a minority parliament where the NDP is likely to play a big role, I'm not sure picking an extra-parliamentary leader (again) is a good call.

Charlie Angus is the name everyone's throwing around, he has this "straight-talkin' jack" persona which contrasts well with Trudeau. Or if they really want to call back to Layton and make gains in Quebec, Boulerice seems like the obvious pick. Nathan Cullen could be a good pick, but I don't imagine he wants to throw away his job in BC as a majority government minister in exchange for leading the federal party. Maybe Jenny Kwan, Peter Julian, or Don Davies from the Vancouver area? Maybe Leah Gazan from Winnipeg?

But in all honesty, I don't think Singh goes.

I do think the NDP might beneft from having a leader from a province where they're actually a party of power, rather than what they usually do. Probably a forlorn hope, but maybe a little bit of that mindset could rub off on the federal party.

At this stage, that leaves you with BC, Alberta and Manitoba. Peter Julian seems good, but the fact that he's been sidelined in two leadership elections in a row now does have to give one pause. Is there anything to be said for Blaikie the Younger, or Heather McPherson?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

To what extent is Charlie Angus's poor perfomance down to his social progressivism, he's a very outspoken social progressive from a union riding with a supringlsy strong PPC perfomance.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

To what extent is Charlie Angus's poor perfomance down to his social progressivism, he's a very outspoken social progressive from a union riding with a supringlsy strong PPC perfomance.

I also wonder if his poor performance is because the PPC did fairly well there. After all, the NDP and PPC bases do overlap quite a bit (horseshoe theory populists).

[lilTommy]

Another reminder that Matthew Green has refused to condemn a professor (Amir Attaran) who called Quebec white supremacist.

He is ultra-woke and see everything through racial lens. Great pick if you want to lose both Quebec and Northern Ontario.

Very good points... so maybe not.  

Daniel Blaikie could be another interesting contender, he's not a standout in terms of embracing something that gets his name out there in the public ethos, BUT he's a solid MP, lineage as well, French? not sure. BUT he comes from a trades/union background, also young (37 I think).  

Charlie Angus; well we don't have all the ballots yet so...
NDP 35% 2021 - 40% 2019
CPC 27% 2021 - 27% 2019
LPC 24% 2021 - 25% 2019
PPC 13% 2021 - 3% 2019

I think it's mostly a protest vote, the more socially conservative union folks attracted to the PPC or new voters who were driven by this. since the LPC/CPC vote is basically right now unchanged from 2019

For context, in Ontario 2018 the vote was NDP 51%, OLP 24%, OPC 22% - No right-wing, Libertarian style party.  But you can see though how some federal CPC voters are voting NDP provincially perhaps

[DC Al Fine]

How about John Horgan. Does he want the top job?

[lilTommy]

How about John Horgan. Does he want the top job?

Interesting, would that not be a first in Canada? A former provincial Premier winning a federal nomination?
I know former provincial party leaders have.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In Quebec it seems BQ out-LPC the LPC.  If the current margins hold it seems BQ would have beaten LPC in seat count despite a lower vote share than LPC.

That's nothing new - I'm pretty sure the same thing happened more than once in the 90s-00s. Québec's political geography seems to favor the Bloc.

Any chance that the mail-in vote might flip one or two seats for the NDP? Since they're just barely trailing in a few right now.

CBC has the NDP narrowly trailing in four seats that haven't been called yet: Davenport, Spadina-Fort York, and Hamilton Mountain in Ontario, plus Vancouver Granville in BC.

They also narrowly lead Nanaimo-Ladysmith which could flip the other way.

Are there any reasons to expect the NDP to overperform in mail-in votes? I seem to remember they did in the BC election, but of course that's a very different election.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

How about John Horgan. Does he want the top job?

He already has a far better one. Why would he want a demotion ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

How about John Horgan. Does he want the top job?

Interesting, would that not be a first in Canada? A former provincial Premier winning a federal nomination?
I know former provincial party leaders have.

Bob Rae was Interim leader of the Liberal Party after having been an NDP premier. Horgan might just pull the same trick if he has federal ambitions.

[Independents for Nihilism]

How about John Horgan. Does he want the top job?

He already has a far better one. Why would he want a demotion ?

What about Notley? Whats more likely, taking Alberta back from Kenney or getting the NDP a federal breakthrough?

[Holmes]

How about John Horgan. Does he want the top job?

He already has a far better one. Why would he want a demotion ?

What about Notley? Whats more likely, taking Alberta back from Kenney or getting the NDP a federal breakthrough?

Right now, taking back Alberta.

[warandwar]

How about John Horgan. Does he want the top job?

Interesting, would that not be a first in Canada? A former provincial Premier winning a federal nomination?
I know former provincial party leaders have.

Bob Rae was Interim leader of the Liberal Party after having been an NDP premier. Horgan might just pull the same trick if he has federal ambitions.

Every NDP member's dream - to exactly mimic Bob Rae's career

[DC Al Fine]

How about John Horgan. Does he want the top job?

Interesting, would that not be a first in Canada? A former provincial Premier winning a federal nomination?
I know former provincial party leaders have.

Bob Stanfield was Premier of Nova Scotia before losing to Trudeau three times.

[Hash]

In Quebec it seems BQ out-LPC the LPC.  If the current margins hold it seems BQ would have beaten LPC in seat count despite a lower vote share than LPC.

That's nothing new - I'm pretty sure the same thing happened more than once in the 90s-00s. Québec's political geography seems to favor the Bloc.

It happened federally in 2000 (Liberals outpolled the Bloc by 4.3% but won 2 fewer seats) and provincially in 1998 (PLQ outpolled the PQ by less than 1% but won 28 fewer seats). The Liberal (federalist) vote is more inefficient than the Bloc (sovereigntist) vote because the Liberals lose a lot of votes in pilling up large margins in safe West Island (and other) seats. The federal Liberal vote is, however, probably slightly more efficient than the provincial Liberal vote now, because the federal Liberals don't really pile up the same ridiculous massive margins in safe seats anymore (as there's more competition from the Conservatives and NDP for the federalist vote).

[DC Al Fine]

How about John Horgan. Does he want the top job?

He already has a far better one. Why would he want a demotion ?

Yeah, fair point.

[Gary JG]

Tommy Douglas, the first NDP leader (1961-1971), was a very distinguished former Premier lf Saskatchewan (1944-1961).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He was. Unfortunately he was also a poor leader of the new federal NDP. Not really his fault - it hardly being a surprise that an agrarian socialist who saw politics in essentially moralistic and religious terms struggled to connect with the 'new Canada' emerging in the 1960s - but an important warning that success in one context does not lead automatically or inevitably to success in others.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

He was. Unfortunately he was also a poor leader of the new federal NDP. Not really his fault - it hardly being a surprise that an agrarian socialist who saw politics in essentially moralistic and religious terms struggled to connect with the 'new Canada' emerging in the 1960s - but an important warning that success in one context does not lead automatically or inevitably to success in others.

You think the credit he get's for the Canadian healthcare and welfare system is undue ?