2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Didn't post on the big day, but allow me to chime in with this one comment:

What a colossal waste of time.

And money-what's the exact amount?

$610 million. I know that by heart and will know it until my heart stops beating because CPC ads really drove that home, to no avail it seems

Jeesh, that's a small tragedy for the country.

I voted Liberal (quite reluctantly), but seeing these results, the CPC has been vindicated in complaining about the $610M pricetag

[Progressive Pessimist]

Wow! I've really been out of the loop. I didn't even know there was a snap election in Canada until today. And it also appears to be a collective set of blue-balls for everybody involved. I still think I'd rather have that political situation to the one here in the US.

Also surprising to me is learning that Erin O'Toole is only 48 years old.

[jaichind]

What do you all think of this rather troubling take in which Maxime Bernier succeeded in not only preventing Erin O'Toole from winning the election with a Conservative minority government, but also made abundantly clear to all that no future aspiring Conservative leader can hope to compete without his followers' acquiescence?

Canada’s far-right fringe is getting stronger

From what I was able to gather, the People's Party is essentially the Canadian version of the MAGAfied Republican Party.  

Well, did PPC really prevent a CPC victory ? I looked around and even making the assumption of 90% of the PPC vote went CPC which is optimistic I could only find 10 seats that CPC could have won that they did not (5 from LPC, 4 from NDP and 1 from BQ.)  That would not have added up to a CPC victory.

[jaichind]

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2021/09/21/these-students-also-gave-trudeau-a-minority-but-in-their-mock-election-they-chose-a-different-official-opposition.html

"These students also gave Trudeau a minority. But in their mock election, they chose a different official Opposition"

        Seats  Vote share
LPC    116    24%
NDP   106    29%
CPC    92     25%
BQ     20       2%
GPC    3       10%

So even with the student vote LPC found a way to win a plurality while losing the popular vote, in fact coming in third.

[adma]

Singh should of course go, after two disastrous elections in a row now, but there is nothing NDP voters love more than losing while feeling superior about themselves, so they will of course keep him.

This is right. On CBC the NDP woman they had was talking about how proud everyone was of Jagmeet; it doesn't matter whether they won or not, what was important was that they made such a great stand by making the turban man their leader. It's the attitude that comes from being in permanent opposition. Nobody got into the NDP because they wanted to win, so nobody can even imagine what winning would be like. It's not surprising that Rachel Notley has tended to keep her distance from the federal NDP, because she is a winner and they are losers.

Speaking as the person who first sounded a "could the NDP underperform 2019?" note, let me say this:  "disastrous" is an overstatement.  If you want "disastrous" in the bigger scheme of things, look to Audrey McLaughlin in 1993, or to the Mulcair tailspin over the course of the 2015 campaign.  And yes, this result highlighted a certain all-surface-no-guts element to the Jagmeet campaign--and in a weird way, I think PPC energy-hogging plowed a big mound of dirt on top of Jagmeetian "positivity" over the course of the campaign.  Otherwise, "bittersweet" might be the more fitting term, not too much different from the Douglas/Lewis leadership era--or else you might as well suggest that the federal NDP's very existence has been one continuous disaster (2011 excepted) for six decades running, and more if you include the CCF.

Painting this in blunt-testosterone winners vs losers terms betrays too much conditioning within hyper-binary systems a la the US or Australia.  I prefer my electoral politics gynaecological over phallic, thank you.

Still feeling this way? I’m waking up to the NDP being at 25, which is frankly pitiful given all the potential upside they had this year. I wasn’t thrilled when I was going to bed with them at 29, but now I’m actually upset.

I probably preemptively insulated myself through my prior "could the NDP underperform 2019?" speculation.  And again:  when all is said and done, more bittersweet than "disastrous", much less "two disastrous elections in a row".

Still, I agree that there's a *bit* of delusionality among partisans.  And while I've suggested that Layton was himself prone to novelty gimmicks, at least he set out to build an organizational foundation "where it counts", and a lot of that as a carryover from his latter-day approach to municipal politics, setting up alliances and seeking common ground in unlikely places.  Whereas Jagmeet and his team seem more adept at whipping up millennial-friendly pixie dust than that kind of Laytonesque meat-and-potatoes kitchen-table fare (and millennials and post-millennials are too "lateral" a demo for the "verticality" that a FPTP electoral system demands).  Too much AOC, not enough "2016 Bernie".  The result being that the *actual* unsexy ground-level riding-by-riding party infrastructure winds up being undernourished--and of course, Covid concerns don't presently help; perhaps they were hoping the pixie dust could compensate for necessarily thwarted groundwork.

Let's presume the NDP *does* clue into that deficiency.  And if Jagmeet is *still* not the right vehicle (perhaps because it'd be hard to get him to do meat-and-potatoes without putting a cute "Punjabi" spin on it?), then as future leadership goes...anyone for Avi Lewis?  (Seriously.  He finished an awfully strong 3rd in a universally-agreed-upon hopeless cause, *probably/perhaps* as a preview to a future run in a more viable riding--and on top of that, his family bloodline practically *codified* a certain characteristically "NDP" hyperintensive street-level voter-identification approach to electoral politics.)

[adma]

Yes, the NDP didn't do well this time but it's certainly conceivable that they'll win Laurier-Sainte Marie, Outremont and/or Hochelaga if the Liberals become unpopular in Quebec, which was not the case at all pre-Layton. They do much, much worse in immigrant-heavy and nationalist working-class areas, but while that's very bad for a social democratic party, it's at least a different class of problem.

That "different class of problem" probably has its Toronto parallel in ridings like Etobicoke North or Humber River-Black Creek or York South-Weston.

Another conceivable NDP Montreal target were it not for the present office holder: Papineau.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Singh should of course go, after two disastrous elections in a row now, but there is nothing NDP voters love more than losing while feeling superior about themselves, so they will of course keep him.

This is right. On CBC the NDP woman they had was talking about how proud everyone was of Jagmeet; it doesn't matter whether they won or not, what was important was that they made such a great stand by making the turban man their leader. It's the attitude that comes from being in permanent opposition. Nobody got into the NDP because they wanted to win, so nobody can even imagine what winning would be like. It's not surprising that Rachel Notley has tended to keep her distance from the federal NDP, because she is a winner and they are losers.

Speaking as the person who first sounded a "could the NDP underperform 2019?" note, let me say this:  "disastrous" is an overstatement.  If you want "disastrous" in the bigger scheme of things, look to Audrey McLaughlin in 1993, or to the Mulcair tailspin over the course of the 2015 campaign.  And yes, this result highlighted a certain all-surface-no-guts element to the Jagmeet campaign--and in a weird way, I think PPC energy-hogging plowed a big mound of dirt on top of Jagmeetian "positivity" over the course of the campaign.  Otherwise, "bittersweet" might be the more fitting term, not too much different from the Douglas/Lewis leadership era--or else you might as well suggest that the federal NDP's very existence has been one continuous disaster (2011 excepted) for six decades running, and more if you include the CCF.

Painting this in blunt-testosterone winners vs losers terms betrays too much conditioning within hyper-binary systems a la the US or Australia.  I prefer my electoral politics gynaecological over phallic, thank you.

Still feeling this way? I’m waking up to the NDP being at 25, which is frankly pitiful given all the potential upside they had this year. I wasn’t thrilled when I was going to bed with them at 29, but now I’m actually upset.

I probably preemptively insulated myself through my prior "could the NDP underperform 2019?" speculation.  And again:  when all is said and done, more bittersweet than "disastrous", much less "two disastrous elections in a row".

Still, I agree that there's a *bit* of delusionality among partisans.  And while I've suggested that Layton was himself prone to novelty gimmicks, at least he set out to build an organizational foundation "where it counts", and a lot of that as a carryover from his latter-day approach to municipal politics, setting up alliances and seeking common ground in unlikely places.  Whereas Jagmeet and his team seem more adept at whipping up millennial-friendly pixie dust than that kind of Laytonesque meat-and-potatoes kitchen-table fare (and millennials and post-millennials are too "lateral" a demo for the "verticality" that a FPTP electoral system demands).  Too much AOC, not enough "2016 Bernie".  The result being that the *actual* unsexy ground-level riding-by-riding party infrastructure winds up being undernourished--and of course, Covid concerns don't presently help; perhaps they were hoping the pixie dust could compensate for necessarily thwarted groundwork.

Let's presume the NDP *does* clue into that deficiency.  And if Jagmeet is *still* not the right vehicle (perhaps because it'd be hard to get him to do meat-and-potatoes without putting a cute "Punjabi" spin on it?), then as future leadership goes...anyone for Avi Lewis?  (Seriously.  He finished an awfully strong 3rd in a universally-agreed-upon hopeless cause, *probably/perhaps* as a preview to a future run in a more viable riding--and on top of that, his family bloodline practically *codified* a certain characteristically "NDP" hyperintensive street-level voter-identification approach to electoral politics.)

I'm not sure Avi Lewis is the Laytonesque alternative to Singh, and especially because this is a minority parliament where the NDP is likely to play a big role, I'm not sure picking an extra-parliamentary leader (again) is a good call.

Charlie Angus is the name everyone's throwing around, he has this "straight-talkin' jack" persona which contrasts well with Trudeau. Or if they really want to call back to Layton and make gains in Quebec, Boulerice seems like the obvious pick. Nathan Cullen could be a good pick, but I don't imagine he wants to throw away his job in BC as a majority government minister in exchange for leading the federal party. Maybe Jenny Kwan, Peter Julian, or Don Davies from the Vancouver area? Maybe Leah Gazan from Winnipeg?

But in all honesty, I don't think Singh goes.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Wow! I've really been out of the loop. I didn't even know there was a snap election in Canada until today. And it also appears to be a collective set of blue-balls for everybody involved. I still think I'd rather have that political situation to the one here in the US.

Also surprising to me is learning that Erin O'Toole is only 48 years old.

The Erin O'Toole age thing really is something, lol. Poor guy didn't age well, especially in contrast to Trudeau who is older somehow.

"A collective set of blue balls" seems like a very apt analogy. Famous Canadian columnist Chantal Hebert made a similar, but more family-friendly remark on CBC yesterday:

"The election that nobody wanted gave nobody the results they wanted." Well put, Chantal.

[adma]

I don’t know if Angus would be the best bet. I think Timmins is getting tired of him. He’s no Gilles Bisson. To be honest I think he should step down next election so the NDP can run a fresh face.

His result in his seat was poor but it's noteworthy that the major swing seems to have been to the PPC. Is that a particularly unvaxxed area?

Not particularly. 73% of people have one dose and 82% of people have two doses.

https://www.timminstoday.com/local-news/12-to-17-year-olds-have-lowest-vaccination-rates-in-the-region-4336796

I also don't think it was the candidate either. He was just some random guy who moved up north from southern Ontatio a few years prior and he was a truck driver.

To be honest, sadly I think PPC/right-wing rhetoric plays up well in the area. I hate to say it. It's a predominantly white area but before I moved away, Timmins was starting to get some South Asian people moving in. I did hear some unpleasant things being said by people about it. That's the kind of place that is unfortunately.

edit- forgot to say this because it happened after I moved away. There's also an opioid crisis now and it's causing a lot of crime and break ins. Angus is the incumbent MP and Liberals are in government and so I'm guessing people probably think neither have helped them with this situation, so they went CPC or PPC.

Though camouflaged by the broken-up opposition, I find Angus's underperformance one of the more interesting details of the election--and I wonder what his figures would be once one takes away all the Northern reserves.  (And needless to say, the "united right" would have outpolled him.)

And while Angus's big tent has been magnanimous enough to previously embrace and neutralize them, there is a certain populist unruliness that's led to high figures for rogue forces like Confederation of Regions in the past--and a high PPC seems in keeping w/that spirit.

I almost feel Charlie Angus to be a tragically thwarted figure, and not just through his losing the leadership to Jagmeet--it's like his whole political narrative represented an Xer counterpart to Jack's boomerism and Jagmeet's millennial-appeal, and for a while in the noughts the kind of big tent he represented really did seem to hold Jack-augmenting promise for the party, a kind of Muchmusic-and-Rheostatics-generation hip Canuck pride.  But now, his seat's looking like one of those UK "Red Wall" seats poised for a potential Tory steal...

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Coast of Bays riding still not called yet. Hopefully they can call that seat soon.

The Sault Ste. Marie riding is super close, the incumbant Sheehan is only leading by 55 votes!

[King of Kensington]

The PPC might have made the difference in Sault Ste. Marie.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Coast of Bays riding still not called yet. Hopefully they can call that seat soon.

The Sault Ste. Marie riding is super close, the incumbant Sheehan is only leading by 55 votes!

Sault Ste. Marie is a WWC Rust Belt riding, it is similar to the Upper Peninsula in Michigan. I am glad the Liberals held on.

[King of Kensington]

The GTA-ization of the Lower Mainland of BC has been confirmed. 

[jaichind]

What do you all think of this rather troubling take in which Maxime Bernier succeeded in not only preventing Erin O'Toole from winning the election with a Conservative minority government, but also made abundantly clear to all that no future aspiring Conservative leader can hope to compete without his followers' acquiescence?

Canada’s far-right fringe is getting stronger

From what I was able to gather, the People's Party is essentially the Canadian version of the MAGAfied Republican Party.  

Well, did PPC really prevent a CPC victory ? I looked around and even making the assumption of 90% of the PPC vote went CPC which is optimistic I could only find 10 seats that CPC could have won that they did not (5 from LPC, 4 from NDP and 1 from BQ.)  That would not have added up to a CPC victory.

I take that back.  I did some more looking and I now find 20 seats that CPC could have won had they won 90% of the PPC vote.  15 came from LPC, 4 came from NDP and 1 from BQ.  But that would still have LPC beating CPC 143 to 139 in terms of seat count.

This means in a parallel universe where CPC and PPC merged the PPC almost entirely transferred its entire vote to CPC the CPC would have beat LPC by over 6% but would have still lost the seat count 143 to 139,  Amazing how resilient the LPC plurality is.

[n1240]

Some notes on what I've seen in the some 20 ridings that are reported mail thus far:

- Liberals generally do slightly better on mail, somewhere around 6% better on average, couple ridings where they've done worse though.
- Conservatives generally do slightly worse on mail, somewhere around 4% worse on average, couple ridings where they've done improved a bit.
- NDP generally does slightly worse on mail, somewhere around 2% worse on average, haven't actually found any ridings where they've done better. Even in Timmins-James Bay which they won overall, they did slightly worse while Liberals narrowly won the mail-in vote there.
- Bloc Québécois has done better in the 4 of the 5 Québec ridings reporting mail, the only one where they did worse was a downtown Montreal riding where they only received 5% of the vote overall. Usually they do around 5% better on average.

[mileslunn]

Anyone have list of all the ridings where they've completed mail in count?  Also be curious if much has changed as just glancing at a few it seems they didn't change much, but probably mostly counted those with fewer mail in so maybe bigger changes in those with more.  Although it seems outside BC (where over 20% of mail-in ballots were from) ridings with highest numbers mostly urban core that tend to go solidly Liberal anyways so may help Liberal overall numbers (doubt they win popular vote though) while on seats I suspect only a handful change of really close ones.

Anyways it looks like Liberal vote is super efficient.  Not just nationally but even in provinces.  In Ontario, Liberal lead was cut in half and only around 4 points, yet few seats changed and got almost double the number of seats Tories did.  Unlike nationally where some logic due to astronomical margins of Tories in Prairies, this seems puzzling as Tories may dominate Rural Ontario, but they aren't blowout margins like Prairies.  Only possibility I can think of is higher turnout in rural ridings than urban thus skewing it.  BC another example as Liberals came in third in votes, but first in seats while Tories exact reverse. 

As for PPC denying Tories a win, I think they hurt them, but I suspect a good chunk of PPC voters probably would have just stayed home and not vote at all if PPC didn't exist.  Never mind most of their double digit showings were largely in Tory held ridings anyways so pushed margins up but not seats.  In fact CPC + PPC is not far off what Harper got in 2011 but much less efficient.  Still it does seem one province where may have had a big impact is Ontario as most of the ridings where CPC + PPC exceed winner are in Ontario.  Interestingly enough, almost all are outside GTA as they did not do well in GTA but were strongest in Southwestern Ontario and Northern Ontario, so sort of the blue collar areas.  Strong parallels to areas Trump gained in Rust Belt and places in UK that voted heavily Leave in Brexit.  In fact despite poor Tory showing in Ontario, looks like CPC + PPC will end up around 40% there which for right is actually not bad, but again mostly in wrong places.

Another interesting fact is Alberta is where Tories saw biggest drop in popular vote and is probably main reason O'Toole's share of popular vote will be slightly below Scheer's.  There went down 14 points and while some went to PPC and Maverick party, it seems a sizeable portion went for NDP or Liberals.  Most likely the Kenney effect based on pandemic and his extreme unpopularity.  In theory this should have made Tory vote more efficient nationally as they can drop a lot in Alberta without losing many seats.

[mileslunn]

Just checking results so far, it seems Tories in both GTA and GVRD closed the gap slightly but not enough to flip seats in the more white ones (Newmarket-Aurora, Mississauga-Lakeshore, Oakville, Burlington etc) and it wouldn't require that big a shift to flip those.  On other hand it appears amongst visible minorities party went backwards and did worse than Scheer or Harper 2015.  This is especially true in ridings with large Chinese community which was one minority group Scheer was competitive amongst.  Big reason they lost both Richmond seats in BC and Markham-Unionville.  Any thoughts on why O'Toole did so poorly with visible minorities?  When comparing Ford's 2018 #'s to O'Toole's 2021 gap in largely white ridings is small and if you add PPC usually within a few points.  But in heavily minority ridings, many of those Ford was getting double or triple what O'Toole was.  Examples of this are Etobicoke North, Scarborough-Agincourt, Markham-Thornhill, Scarborough North, and Scarborough-Rouge Park.  All I believe over 70% visible minority and all one's O'Toole bombed badly yet Ford except last one won quite handily. 

For the Chinese community, wonder if O'Toole's hardline against China hurt him or perhaps just rise in anti-Asian racism.  For visible minorities in general, my thinking is many lean conservative on issues but due to fact far too many politicians on right are racist, they are reluctant to vote for parties on right until they are comfortable with leader and knew them well.  Ford due to his previous involvement municipally was very well known and had strong connections with most communities.  By contrast O'Toole was largely a blank and due to pandemic really had no opportunity to introduce himself thus many chose to play it safe and go Liberal.  It does seem the racial gap in voting is wider than in recent elections as Canada unlike US has tended to have much smaller gap.  Haven't seen exit polls yet but guessing Liberals won visible minorities by pretty large margin, probably well into 40s, maybe near 50% while Tories probably struggled to get 25%.  In fact I would venture to guess in Ontario and English Canada CPC + PPC was probably close to or over 50% amongst white males.

Certainly Tories absolutely must do better with non-whites to have a chance, but as Ford and Harper in 2011 showed it can be done and is not impossible.

[mileslunn]

Sorry for multiple posts, but seems Liberals and NDP really struggling rural Canada.  Yes won a few seats but even ones they won were way closer than usual.  Charlie Angus won by a rather small margin while rural Newfoundland which was where Liberals had best numbers in 2011 and 2015 was quite competitive.  Total flip of early part of this century where Tories dominated St. John's, Liberals rural parts whereas now Tories irrelevant in St. John's (NDP/Liberal) while rural Newfoundland quite competitive. 

This is something that all parties need to address.  More live in cities than rural areas thus advantage for Liberals, but just as Tories cannot win without gaining in GTA or GVRD, Liberals will find winning a majority likely challenging if they are getting shut out of smaller communities and limited to large metro areas.  You can win a minority on large metro areas only, but a majority requires winning some smaller communities.  And never mind divide just problematic in mistrust of each other too.

It seems NDP largely confined to rural ridings with large aboriginal populations and a few northern blue collar ones but even those like North Island-Powell River, Skeena-Bulkley Valley or Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing were much closer than in past.  Liberals seemed to only maintain their strength in Francophone rural areas outside Quebec which they are still winning by large margins and no real tightening.

For Tories, Calgary, Regina, and Saskatoon and maybe Barrie if you want to stretch it only large cities they did well in.  Did alright in Edmonton and Quebec City while in Toronto and Vancouver, pretty much pushed all the way out to the exurbs winning exurbs but near shut out of suburbs.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any chance that the mail-in vote might flip one or two seats for the NDP? Since they're just barely trailing in a few right now.

[adma]

Sorry for multiple posts, but seems Liberals and NDP really struggling rural Canada.  Yes won a few seats but even ones they won were way closer than usual.  Charlie Angus won by a rather small margin while rural Newfoundland which was where Liberals had best numbers in 2011 and 2015 was quite competitive.  Total flip of early part of this century where Tories dominated St. John's, Liberals rural parts whereas now Tories irrelevant in St. John's (NDP/Liberal) while rural Newfoundland quite competitive. 

When it comes to Charlie Angus, it's more the low share than the "small margin" that's concerning (in fact, the margin's not much different from that over the Libs in '15).

And Newfoundland, by its nature, isn't really comparable in its rural vs urban patterns; it marches to its own election-by-election drummer (plus, St. John's Toryism is really *Red* Toryism).  Even the Long Range Mountains close call is of the sort that *could* have happened in the past with the right candidacy and the right circumstances in place--that it has the solidest Lib history of all N&L ridings is more happenstance than baked-in.  (The Tories nearly took its equivalent in 1997, for one.)

[adma]

- NDP generally does slightly worse on mail, somewhere around 2% worse on average, haven't actually found any ridings where they've done better. Even in Timmins-James Bay which they won overall, they did slightly worse while Liberals narrowly won the mail-in vote there.

When it comes to TJB, I can imagine a disproportion of mail-ins coming from Timmins, which is something of a Liberal stronghold and where their candidate's served as Mayor.

[King of Kensington]

Saskatchewan has displaced Alberta as the most conservative province.

[CumbrianLefty]

Saskatchewan has displaced Alberta as the most conservative province.

As has surely been increasingly obvious for a while now.

[StateBoiler]

My two-cent outsider perspective:

-O'Toole went toward the middle like everyone to the left of the Conservatives said the party had to do, and it did not result in any changing of the voting attitudes of Canadians toward the Conservatives outside of the odd pocket here and there
-I think if Peter Mackay were Conservative leader we would've had the exact same result
-Chrystia Freeland to be next Prime Minister before the next election, if Trudeau runs in another election the Liberals will get destroyed, and if he resigns right before the election they'll also get destroyed
-like I asked pre-election, if Tom Mulcair was fired for winning 44 seats, how can the NDP be happy with Jagmeet Singh getting about half that number 2 elections in a row?
-that said, I think Singh would survive a leadership review; if he is out, it'd have to be due to "private discussions" and Singh's choice
-People's Party should consider this election successful for them, maybe the only party that can, but what now? (what a far-left name for a right-wing party, People's Party of Canada in another era could've been the name for the Communists)
-the cognoscenti out there think there's going to be a 2023 election due to the shakiness of minority governments, but they also rightfully pointed out no one is bringing down this government any time soon; throw on top of it there will be elections in Ontario and Quebec next year
-the Green Party are done as a national-level force, their elected MP in Kitchener was a fluke due to the Liberal candidate having issues and Elizabeth May is getting old with smaller winning margins, combined with a party that is probably taking a sharp turn left after Annamie Paul is removed in November
-a successful Bloc in Quebec makes it really hard for any party to form a majority because there are entire regions of the country where the main parties are uncompetitive: the Liberals largely don't exist going from Northern Ontario over to Vancouver, the Conservatives are marginal in Atlantic Canada (made headway this time), greater Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver, and the NDP are pretty much a section of Ontario, B.C., and indigenous seats party with a few seats more or less in western cities

[Cassius]

Odd comments from Grenier saying that Singh is comparable to Jack Layton since the latter apparently ‘tread water’ for his first two elections. Layton doubled the NDP’s vote and seat count in three years, taking it from single digits and near minor party status to being a serious player again. Singh has presided over a net loss of votes and seats over the course of four years. Whilst I suppose there’s an argument for keeping him on due to having the best approval ratings of any major party leader, he’s no Jack Layton, sir.