2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[CumbrianLefty]

Agreed that this is a pathetic NDP result given the opportunities they had in this election. And for REB to just miss out like that is heartbreaking

[Epaminondas]

Does someone have a list of the closest ridings this time around?

[adma]

Singh should of course go, after two disastrous elections in a row now, but there is nothing NDP voters love more than losing while feeling superior about themselves, so they will of course keep him.

This is right. On CBC the NDP woman they had was talking about how proud everyone was of Jagmeet; it doesn't matter whether they won or not, what was important was that they made such a great stand by making the turban man their leader. It's the attitude that comes from being in permanent opposition. Nobody got into the NDP because they wanted to win, so nobody can even imagine what winning would be like. It's not surprising that Rachel Notley has tended to keep her distance from the federal NDP, because she is a winner and they are losers.

Speaking as the person who first sounded a "could the NDP underperform 2019?" note, let me say this:  "disastrous" is an overstatement.  If you want "disastrous" in the bigger scheme of things, look to Audrey McLaughlin in 1993, or to the Mulcair tailspin over the course of the 2015 campaign.  And yes, this result highlighted a certain all-surface-no-guts element to the Jagmeet campaign--and in a weird way, I think PPC energy-hogging plowed a big mound of dirt on top of Jagmeetian "positivity" over the course of the campaign.  Otherwise, "bittersweet" might be the more fitting term, not too much different from the Douglas/Lewis leadership era--or else you might as well suggest that the federal NDP's very existence has been one continuous disaster (2011 excepted) for six decades running, and more if you include the CCF.

Painting this in blunt-testosterone winners vs losers terms betrays too much conditioning within hyper-binary systems a la the US or Australia.  I prefer my electoral politics gynaecological over phallic, thank you.

[adma]

I used to think that Canada was less partisan and more elastic than America. This election doesn't exactly support that. Every party coming out with virtually the same number of seats compared to two years ago is a little surprising.

Even in Canada, status quo elections can happen.  In this case, it's less a measure of inelasticity than a measure of *meh*.  (Probably a little like the UK in 2001, largely upholding the 1997 Blair-landslide status quo out of *meh*)

[adma]

PPC getting pretty good results in NB with the Tories holding on to their 2019 vote share.

Worth noting that the best Tory result seems to be Souris-Moose Mountain in SK - 76%.

From what I can tell, though I might be wrong, PPC topped off in Portage-Lisgar around 20%.  (That is, higher than Mad Max.)  And I *think* it might have been Chatham-Kent-Leamington in Ontario...

[CumbrianLefty]

Oh and a big whoop for whoever it was who put rocket boosters under the PQ campaign during that Quebec debate - I hope you are proud of yourself.

[wbrocks67]

It's so interesting how there was so much punditry for Newsom and Trudeau about how COVID backlash would hurt them and they were in for the "race of their life" at some point during all of this and then both.... actually did slightly better than their last election (Libs look to gain +3 seats right now).

It's almost as if pundits are completely out of touch with what is actually happening on the ground.

[Continential]

It's so interesting how there was so much punditry for Newsom and Trudeau about how COVID backlash would hurt them and they were in for the "race of their life" at some point during all of this and then both.... actually did slightly better than their last election (Libs look to gain +3 seats right now).

It's almost as if pundits are completely out of touch with what is actually happening on the ground.

You do realize that Trudeau is still at a minority. He wanted a majority and the Tories actually won the popular vote. This isn't a win for anyone and gaining 3 seats means that barely anything change. This and Newsom's landslide is completely different.

[wbrocks67]

It's so interesting how there was so much punditry for Newsom and Trudeau about how COVID backlash would hurt them and they were in for the "race of their life" at some point during all of this and then both.... actually did slightly better than their last election (Libs look to gain +3 seats right now).

It's almost as if pundits are completely out of touch with what is actually happening on the ground.

You do realize that Trudeau is still at a minority. He wanted a majority and the Tories actually won the popular vote. This isn't a win for anyone and gaining 3 seats means that barely anything change. This and Newsom's landslide is completely different.

Right, but Trudeau winning 170 was never likely. And the Tories won the popular vote in 2019 as well, so that's not really anything new. Not to mention, tons of leftists voted for NDP, so the 'left' faction is a lot bigger than the Liberal # would suggest.

The point is that there were tons of stories about how this could "blow up" in Trudeau's face and he could even lose the Prime Minister-ship. While he didn't get a majority, the fact that he didn't *lose* any seats given the alleged ebbs and flows of this race, shows that this race may have been more stable than it was publicized as. Much like the CA race.

CA ended up being a status quote CA race. This was pretty similar.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

People call Justin Trudeau a fake feminist but it sure looks to me like the only winners of the election he called were Chrystia Freeland, Leslyn Lewis, Rachel Notley and Elizabeth May.

[KaiserDave]

What a massive disappointment
Terrible

[adma]

Right, but Trudeau winning 170 was never likely. And the Tories won the popular vote in 2019 as well, so that's not really anything new. Not to mention, tons of leftists voted for NDP, so the 'left' faction is a lot bigger than the Liberal # would suggest.

Keep in mind, though, that the Cons were polling well back in mid-to-high 20s when the Libs were preparing to call the election.  So when all of this started, it *did* look like a likelihood (at least in Liberal eyes)

[Geoffrey Howe]

PPC getting pretty good results in NB with the Tories holding on to their 2019 vote share.

Worth noting that the best Tory result seems to be Souris-Moose Mountain in SK - 76%.

From what I can tell, though I might be wrong, PPC topped off in Portage-Lisgar around 20%.  (That is, higher than Mad Max.)  And I *think* it might have been Chatham-Kent-Leamington in Ontario...

Yes, and excepting Beauce I think the adjacent Provencher is second. Which reflects the polls suggesting that the PPC would do better in MB/SK than Alberta. Any thoughts why?

[adma]

PPC getting pretty good results in NB with the Tories holding on to their 2019 vote share.

Worth noting that the best Tory result seems to be Souris-Moose Mountain in SK - 76%.

From what I can tell, though I might be wrong, PPC topped off in Portage-Lisgar around 20%.  (That is, higher than Mad Max.)  And I *think* it might have been Chatham-Kent-Leamington in Ontario...

Yes, and excepting Beauce I think the adjacent Provencher is second. Which reflects the polls suggesting that the PPC would do better in MB/SK than Alberta. Any thoughts why?

When it comes to Portage-Lisgar and Provencher, I'd imagine the heavy Evangelical Xtian communities around Winkler/Morden and Steinbach are a major factor.

[CumbrianLefty]

What a massive disappointment
Terrible

This is rather like 2005 in the UK - a result that no party is really happy with.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

List of seats that changed hands:

Liberal to Conservative: (* = not called by CBC yet)
-Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame, NL *
-South Shore-St. Margarets, NS
-Cumberland-Colchester, NS
-Miramichi-Grand Lake, NB
-Peterborough-Kawartha, ON
-Bay of Quinte, ON
-King-Vaughan, ON *

other races that would be Lib to Con flips but the Libs are narrowly leading and have not been called by CBC yet:
-Kitchener-Conestoga, ON
-Niagara Centre, ON
-Sault Ste. Marie, ON


Conservative to Liberal: (* = not called by CBC yet)
-Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, ON
-Markham-Unionville, ON
-Calgary Skyview, AB
-Edmonton Centre, AB *
-Cloverdale-Langley City, BC
-Steveston-Richmond East, BC
-Richmond Centre, BC *

other races that would be Con to Lib flips but the Cons are narrowly leading and have not been called by CBC yet:
-Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley, MB

Liberal to Bloc (* = not called by CBC yet)
-Châteauguay-Lacolle, QC
-Brome-Missisquoi, QC *

other races that would be Lib to BQ flips but the Libs are narrowly leading and have not been called by CBC yet:
-Longueuil-Charles-LeMoyne, QC

NDP to Liberal: (* = not called by CBC yet)
-St. John's East, NL
-Hamilton Mountain, ON *

Conservative to NDP:
-Edmonton Griesbach, AB
-Port Moody-Coquitlam, BC

Liberal to Green:
-Kitchener Centre, ON

Green to Liberal: (* = not called by CBC yet)
-Fredericton, NB *

Green to NDP (* = not called by CBC yet)
-Nanaimo-Ladysmith, BC *

Independent to Liberal (* = not called by CBC yet)
-Vancouver Granville, BC *

Liberal to NDP - none yet, but there are three uncalled races where the Liberals are leading but the NDP could still win:
-Spadina-Fort York, ON
-Davenport, ON
-Parkdale-High Park, ON

Bloc to Conservative - none yet, but one uncalled race where the Bloc is leading but the Conservatives could still win:
-Trois-Rivières, QC

[Geoffrey Howe]

New Brunswick:

CPC - 34.15%
LPC - 42.52%
NDP - 12.37%
PPC - 5.88%
GPC - 5.08%





Note the PPC didn't stand in two ridings and tended to be closer to 8% where they did.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Prince Edward Island:

CPC - 31.74%
LPC - 46.16%
NDP - 9.20%
PPC - 3.30%
GPC - 9.60%

[adma]

Another thing about the NDP: if Jagmeet is a glib stunter, so was Jack Layton--even the way he nabbed Mulcair and so seeded the Orange Crush was more of an electoral stunt than anything.

Speaking of byproducts of Jack's stunting, I continue to find the fixation upon REB as some kind of party folk hero and saviour to be a cloying distraction, even if she remains popular enough to *nearly* have won this time around.  Besides, it detracts from the quiet fact of the party's more "organic" future-QC base being within urban Montreal--that is, the future's w/the Nima Machouf end, not w/the REB end.

Oh, and Hamilton might be to '21 what Windsor was to '19--the NDP looking to "unexpectedly" lose Hamilton Mountain and finish 3rd in HESC...

[Geoffrey Howe]

Newfoundland (exc. Labrador)

CPC - 33.34%
LPC - 47.29%
NDP - 16.91%
PPC - 2.46%


PPC didn't stand in Coast of Bays.

[DC Al Fine]

Looks like EKOS kept with tradition and massively underpolled the Tories, by nearly 7%!

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Is there a breakdown of the best and worst ridings (so far) by party? Especially interested in PPC for their best ridings.

[Logical]

If one follows the campaign purely through online polls, which has proven itself to be most accurate once again, instead of volatile IVR/telephone daily trackers then they will find that the campaign barely changed anything. Yes, the Conservatives had a mid campaign surge as reluctant Cons once again realize that the CPC was their only hope of getting Trudeau out, but then they stalled at that level until the end. There never was a last minute Liberal surge either, rather a strategic movement from left of centre forces to support the strongest non-Conservative force that happens nearly every election. One or two more weeks of campaigning wouldn't change anything, most people are less engaged in an election campaign than they ever were!

[Geoffrey Howe]

Nova Scotia

CPC - 27.14%
LPC - 43.70%
NDP - 23.04%
PPC - 4.17%
GPC - 1.96%


Note CPC didn't stand in Dartmouth. This slightly inflated the PPC score. If we assume the CPC would have got similar to last time (~9,000) this pushes the CPC up to 29%.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Is there a breakdown of the best and worst ridings (so far) by party? Especially interested in PPC for their best ridings.

PPC:

Portage-Lisgar (MB) - 20%
Beauce (QC) - 18% (Maxime Bernier)
Provencher (MB) - 16%

They didn't do as well (~10%) in rural AB.