Was 2004 really Kerry's race to lose?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 21, 2024, 06:22:41 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Was 2004 really Kerry's race to lose?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Was 2004 really Kerry's race to lose?  (Read 1152 times)
RRusso1982
Rookie
**
Posts: 207
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 10, 2021, 01:28:53 PM »

A lot of people say that John Kerry should have won in 2004 and blew it.  I am not so sure.  I think that given the fundamentals of the race, what should have happened on paper happened.  A narrow Bush win.  In 2004, Bush wasn't very popular, but he wasn't very unpopular either.  He was at about 48 or 49% approval and about 47% disapproval.  Basically treading water.  In 2004, the war in Iraq was not very popular, but it had not yet become the quagmire it would later become.  The economy was not great, but not terrible.  It was still recovering from the early 2000's recession.  This was before Katrina.  Basically it was a tie.  In baseball, a tie goes to the runner.  In politics, a tie typically goes to the incumbent.  I look at John Kerry and say, "Not good enough to justify throwing out the incumbent."  I think the fact that he came one big state (Ohio) away from winning actually reflected well on him.
Logged
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 42,329
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 10, 2021, 01:37:03 PM »

Bush was a strong incumbent in 2004, if still quite polarizing. The economy was doing well, Iraq was still popular, and the social issues of the day were in the GOP's favor (SSM was unpopular and so a winning issue for the right).
Kerry did well, he didn't clinch the win because Bush was hard to actually defeat.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.018 seconds with 14 queries.