Was 2004 really Kerry's race to lose?

[RRusso1982]

A lot of people say that John Kerry should have won in 2004 and blew it.  I am not so sure.  I think that given the fundamentals of the race, what should have happened on paper happened.  A narrow Bush win.  In 2004, Bush wasn't very popular, but he wasn't very unpopular either.  He was at about 48 or 49% approval and about 47% disapproval.  Basically treading water.  In 2004, the war in Iraq was not very popular, but it had not yet become the quagmire it would later become.  The economy was not great, but not terrible.  It was still recovering from the early 2000's recession.  This was before Katrina.  Basically it was a tie.  In baseball, a tie goes to the runner.  In politics, a tie typically goes to the incumbent.  I look at John Kerry and say, "Not good enough to justify throwing out the incumbent."  I think the fact that he came one big state (Ohio) away from winning actually reflected well on him.