Why was John Kerry able to carry New Hampshire?
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  Why was John Kerry able to carry New Hampshire?
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Author Topic: Why was John Kerry able to carry New Hampshire?  (Read 1852 times)
GregTheGreat657
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« on: July 22, 2021, 11:13:00 AM »

Gore did not carry NH in 2000. Did NH disapprove of the Iraq War more than other swing states? Did Kerry being from Massachusetts help him? Did Bush being an incumbent hurt him? What do you guys think?
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Woody
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« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2021, 12:21:13 PM »

The Christian right become even more synomymous with the GOP's identity during this cycle. So naturally while Bush torpedoed his winning margins in the South compared to 2000, he lost ground in more secular regions as a consequence of cultural issues being one of the prime fronts that year. And like you mentioned, Kerry, being a New Englander himself, helped him too.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #2 on: July 22, 2021, 01:35:41 PM »

The Nader voters came home to the Democrats.
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #3 on: July 22, 2021, 01:36:49 PM »

it went from a state that republicans barely won in 2000 to one where democrats barely won in 2004
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TDAS04
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« Reply #4 on: July 22, 2021, 01:45:34 PM »
« Edited: July 22, 2021, 01:49:13 PM by TDAS04 »

Shouldn’t be too surprising, considering Maine and Vermont had sharper swings to the left. Guns were a bigger issue in 2000, which may have contributed to Gore’s underperformance in Upper New England.  These states were not fond of the Iraq War, and Kerry’s a New Englander.
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« Reply #5 on: July 22, 2021, 03:46:40 PM »

Did Kerry carry NH because of anything he did per se or because of the socially liberal ancestral Rockefeller Republican anathema towards Dubya's embrace of the religious right?
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Senator Spark
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« Reply #6 on: July 22, 2021, 04:12:18 PM »

Cultural liberalism and secularism is dominant in New England. Bush doubling down on social issues and trying to appeal to evangelicals certainly didn't help him in NH.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #7 on: July 22, 2021, 04:25:29 PM »

Did Kerry carry NH because of anything he did per se or because of the socially liberal ancestral Rockefeller Republican anathema towards Dubya's embrace of the religious right?
The latter.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #8 on: July 22, 2021, 10:45:02 PM »

The Christian right become even more synomymous with the GOP's identity during this cycle. So naturally while Bush torpedoed his winning margins in the South compared to 2000, he lost ground in more secular regions as a consequence of cultural issues being one of the prime fronts that year. And like you mentioned, Kerry, being a New Englander himself, helped him too.

Wait did Woodbury actually give a detailed, thought out and correct analysis?
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2021, 05:24:37 PM »

Because he was a New Englander. There was also less focus on economic issues in 2004 than in 2000, which would hurt the GOP in NH, since NH voters are generally socially liberal but economically conservative. In 2000 George W Bush was genuinely seen by some as a 'compassionate conservative,' and won some residual support from moderates (including some Bush 1988/Clinton 1996 voters), but in 2004 the nation was more polarized, and even the remaining few socially liberal voters who had helped put Bush over the top in 2000 reverted to Kerry, since Bush had revealed his true colours as a complete conservative. And also the Nader effect, to a lesser extent - progressives in 2000 were unsatisfied with both Bush (a conservative) and Gore (associated with the nearly centrist Clinton), and had the perfect alternative - a progressive candidate from a new, progressive party. In contrast, in 2004 the Green Party was not as new or glorified, Kerry was more liberal, and he was able to unite peace doves against Bush, including progressive Nader 2000 voters. And NH didn't shift that hard to the left - interestingly, all of NH's neighbours shifted further to the left in 2004  other than MA (Kerry's homestate), where Bush decreased his margin of loss by 2% (and despite this, MA was Kerry's strongest state - the only one where he crossed 60% of the vote).
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Woody
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« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2021, 02:28:54 PM »

The Christian right become even more synomymous with the GOP's identity during this cycle. So naturally while Bush torpedoed his winning margins in the South compared to 2000, he lost ground in more secular regions as a consequence of cultural issues being one of the prime fronts that year. And like you mentioned, Kerry, being a New Englander himself, helped him too.

Wait did Woodbury actually give a detailed, thought out and correct analysis?
I always do.
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