Ontario Election 2022

[MaxQue]

Durham, Halton, Peel and York are Toronto's "collar counties."

Aren't the collar counties very white?

[MaxQue]

Re: "white ethnics" Italian Canadians are one of the most pro-Ford demographics around.  Del Duca winning Woodbridge isn't even a guarantee - though it helps that the current MPP hasn't exactly distinguished himself and he gets a leadership boost he didn't have before.  And hard to see King-Vaughan with its high income Italian demographic fall given Stephen Lecce's profile and that it went Conservative in the last federal election (with a bit of an assist from Russian Jews).  It's not your "Brahmin-liberal" demographic.

(Of course York Region is radically different from Northern Ontario).

What's the problem with Tibollo?

[MaxQue]

Also totally absent of the non-sensical Tory spin put forward by adma is the fact the PC government did nothing for Northeastern Ontario and their downright hostility to Francophones (which are an important group in Timmins area).

[MaxQue]

25 years ago, the idea of the PCs having a better shot at Timmins than St. Paul's was untenable.  But that's where we're at.

*35* years ago, though, under *entirely* different circumstances, provincial PC leader Larry Grossman lost in St Andrew-St Patrick (a riding whose most "Tory" parts lie in present-day St Paul's), while his former PC leadership rival Alan Pope won in Cochrane South (the predecessor to Timmins).  But Pope (whose local appeal was more personal than partisan) fell out w/the party, didn't run again in 1990, and Bisson was elected on Bob Rae's coattails while the PCs finished under 5%, in 4th behind the Confederation of Regions.  (Indeed, the subsequent local grip of "Bisson populism" through his party's most fallow years is not unlike that of Alan Pope in the '87 PC annus horribilis.)

Good point.  
 
My political memory goes back to the 1990s/Harris years and the matching of the federal and provincial ridings in Ontario, so I guess Cochrane South slipped my mind.  The PCs of the Bill Davis era actually did quite well in Northern Ontario.  Ironically it was Mike Harris of North Bay who really bombed in the north.  

Ontario's political history of previous generations is really quite fascinating.  The NDP is a miniature "labor party" and does well where you'd expect it: industrial centers, inner cities, working class suburbs.  And of the "non-socialist" parties, the Liberals were the more rural party until the 1980s (particularly in SW Ontario), while the PCs were a very successful big tent party.  

But in 1987, the Peterson Liberals really, really succeed as the "party of everybody" - urban, suburban, rural, all the regions represented.  Both the old rural conservative and diverse urban party are there.  You see 60%+ results in ridings as different as Scarborough North and Huron. 

I know Northern Ontarians who think North Bay is the first city in the south, rather than being part of the north.

[MaxQue]

*Now* a pollster is showing the NDP below the critical 20% threshold, seemingly dented by the Greens' good debate performance.

https://www.cp24.com/news/ford-s-pcs-maintain-lead-ndp-support-slips-survey-1.5909273

I think it's pretty clear by now that Nanos' numbers are always underreporting NDP, except in the last week polls...

[MaxQue]

In Quebec, last time, PQ and QS both won 10 seats. The title of second opposition was given to the PQ, as they got more votes, and the title of third opposition to QS (it switched later when someone left PQ, due a decision by the Speaker)

[MaxQue]

In determining which party should be the official opposition the share of the popular vote is totally irrelevant

It has been used in Quebec in case of a tie in seats.

[MaxQue]

When was there ever a tie in Quebec as to which party would be the official opposition?

If there actually was a tie in seats I wonder if there is any precedence for having co-opposition parties?

In 2018, Quebec solidaire and Parti Quebecois were tied and as a result, the Speaker ruled that the Parti Quebecois would be the second opposition because they had a larger share of the popular vote.

Since when does it mean anything to be "second opposition party" as far as I know you can either be government or official opposition or be an other official party. I don't think parties get any extra status or funding based on being #3 instead of #4

It has impact on time allocation in debates and in speaking order. For exemple, the 2nd opposition is entitled a deputy speaker position, not the 3rd one, same thing for some commissions.

[MaxQue]

Yes but keep in mind that it was Layton who led the NDP to OO status and the Mulcair who blew it. In contrast it was Horwath who let the NDP to a great result in 2018

For having worked on that campaign, it's not Mulcair who blew it, but the paid campaign strategists and party employees.

[MaxQue]

For having worked on that campaign, it's not Mulcair who blew it, but the paid campaign strategists and party employees.

The buck stops at the top.

Which is nonsense, as he is not the one who hired them and he couldn't fire them even if he wanted too, because labour law.

[MaxQue]

Yes but keep in mind that it was Layton who led the NDP to OO status and the Mulcair who blew it. In contrast it was Horwath who let the NDP to a great result in 2018

For having worked on that campaign, it's not Mulcair who blew it, but the paid campaign strategists and party employees.

Can you elaborate on this at all?

The usual control mania, with party staffers offering no support at all, but kept lecturing local organisations and candidates for not talking enough about the policy of the day (even if we know it's a vote-loser locally) and too much about local issues, them taking control of local campaigns, but doing nothing and offering no leadership, except to complain when the people took the ''wrong'' decisions... They were in general, very unlikeable people who were more preoccupied with looking good with the provincial organiser than doing a good job or even respecting MP or the local members.

My riding was thankfully spared from them, because my (then high profile) MP said that if they did that to his campaign, he would retire right away.

This convinced me that parties should have the least amount of paid staff and any staff should be contracted for fixed lenght contracts, not hired.

For brucejoel, the leader of the party isn't the head of the entity, that would be whomever manages the party day to day (and unions, who would defend any incompetent employee, because it's their ''job'').

[MaxQue]

Surprised to see the Liberals barely even budge from their 2018 seat count, let alone not reach official party status. Especially if they're leading the NDP in the popular vote.

Also, who's Bobbi Ann Brady? Equally surprised to see an independent victory.

Employee of the long-term retiring PC MPP. He supports her, as Ford imposed a candidate instead of letting the association choose.

[MaxQue]

I’ve lost count of how many times a politician gives a concession speech and then all the pundits go on and on about how “this was the best speech they ever gave” and “if only they had been like this the whole campaign they could have won the election”. It’s almost becoming a cliche

Another proof of the nefarious influence of advisers.

[MaxQue]

It will be interesting to see if similar patterns happens in Quebec in October.

[MaxQue]

Radio-Canada says that France Gélinas (Nickel Belt) is interested in being interim leader.

[MaxQue]

I realize that it was a complete train-wreck of an administration, but why did the NDP have so many ministers without portfolio?

They were without portfolio, but were junior ministers with explicit roles.