Ontario Election 2022

[Krago]

If the PCs win the most seats, but fail to get a majority, there are two things that I am sure of.

If the Liberals finish second, they will say anything and do anything to get the NDP (and maybe Schreiner) to support Steven Del Duca as Premier in a coalition government.

If the Liberals finish third, they will never, NEVER support a Horwath-led NDP government.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Del Duca is not going to even win Woodbridge, is he?

All the fundamentals suggest that Woodbridge should be a pretty easy PC hold in this election, except for the major factor that a leader is running there. He did get swept in 2018, but used to get very strong results before (I remember in 2018 people genuinely thought Woodbridge would be competitive). Del Duca's a Woodbridge boy, certainly no parachute candidate, and has represented it before. That said, Woodbridge is also Ford Nation.

I wonder how Highway 413 will play into votes here. I'm pretty sure it runs through the riding. Of course the highway is very controversial, and maybe a strange alliance of environmentalists and NIMBYs will prop up Del Duca here. But I would assume the 413 also has a lot of support among commuters in the region, probably outnumbering the anti-413 crowd. If you're stuck in GTA traffic and hear that one guy wants to build you a shiny new road, and the other guy doesn't, you're more likely to prefer the former.

Edit: I'll also add that, while I don't live in Woodbridge nor plan to vote Liberal, if I did live in the riding, I'd find it endearing that Del Duca took the risk of throwing himself into a hard-to-win race in his hometown, instead of running off to a safe seat. Doubt that will make much of a difference on e-day, but who knows?

Well, it's an easy out for him if he loses his riding. I think whether or not he wins his own riding or not would make for an easy indicator as to whether Liberals will tolerate him as leader for the next four years.

That might be a good bellwether, and if he does win his seat and sticks around as leader, I think he might find some success as a Dalton McGuinty-type character. Dull as dishwater, but a skilled politician and a committed partisan who can wait it out in opposition for an additional 4 years. In federal politics I don't think this could work, but provincial politics (especially ON) is not known for its star power or razzmatazz.

[DL]

Well Howard Hampton stuck around after finishing third in 1999 so why shouldn’t Del Duca lead the OLP to three third place results too?

[adma]

If the PCs win the most seats, but fail to get a majority, there are two things that I am sure of.

If the Liberals finish second, they will say anything and do anything to get the NDP (and maybe Schreiner) to support Steven Del Duca as Premier in a coalition government.

If the Liberals finish third, they will never, NEVER support a Horwath-led NDP government.

In that light, I'm also wondering whether they're carefully eyeing the present Trudeau/Ford strategic chumminess as a game plan for a future PC minority circumstance.  Cameron/Clegg, Ontario style...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

If the PCs win the most seats, but fail to get a majority, there are two things that I am sure of.

If the Liberals finish second, they will say anything and do anything to get the NDP (and maybe Schreiner) to support Steven Del Duca as Premier in a coalition government.

If the Liberals finish third, they will never, NEVER support a Horwath-led NDP government.

In that light, I'm also wondering whether they're carefully eyeing the present Trudeau/Ford strategic chumminess as a game plan for a future PC minority circumstance.  Cameron/Clegg, Ontario style...

Lol, you do not want to go into a Cameron/Clegg situation as the Clegg...it's not fun getting Clegged, Lib Dems still haven't recovered.

If the nominally equidistant party of the UK got decimated for coalitioning with the Tories, the traditional anti-Tory party of Ontario will suffer the same fate, if not worse. There are some Brahmin Liberals who would vote Grit no matter what, but most Liberals vote Liberal primarily to keep out the Tories.

[adma]

If the PCs win the most seats, but fail to get a majority, there are two things that I am sure of.

If the Liberals finish second, they will say anything and do anything to get the NDP (and maybe Schreiner) to support Steven Del Duca as Premier in a coalition government.

If the Liberals finish third, they will never, NEVER support a Horwath-led NDP government.

In that light, I'm also wondering whether they're carefully eyeing the present Trudeau/Ford strategic chumminess as a game plan for a future PC minority circumstance.  Cameron/Clegg, Ontario style...

Lol, you do not want to go into a Cameron/Clegg situation as the Clegg...it's not fun getting Clegged, Lib Dems still haven't recovered.

If the nominally equidistant party of the UK got decimated for coalitioning with the Tories, the traditional anti-Tory party of Ontario will suffer the same fate, if not worse. There are some Brahmin Liberals who would vote Grit no matter what, but most Liberals vote Liberal primarily to keep out the Tories.

Of course, it wouldn't be *precisely* Cameron/Clegg, largely because of the slipperiness of Ontario Liberal ideology.  That is, there's a lot more natural "Ford Nation Liberalism" in the GTA, whereas Thatcherite Lib Dems are more of an alienating oxymoron...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

If the PCs win the most seats, but fail to get a majority, there are two things that I am sure of.

If the Liberals finish second, they will say anything and do anything to get the NDP (and maybe Schreiner) to support Steven Del Duca as Premier in a coalition government.

If the Liberals finish third, they will never, NEVER support a Horwath-led NDP government.

In that light, I'm also wondering whether they're carefully eyeing the present Trudeau/Ford strategic chumminess as a game plan for a future PC minority circumstance.  Cameron/Clegg, Ontario style...

Lol, you do not want to go into a Cameron/Clegg situation as the Clegg...it's not fun getting Clegged, Lib Dems still haven't recovered.

If the nominally equidistant party of the UK got decimated for coalitioning with the Tories, the traditional anti-Tory party of Ontario will suffer the same fate, if not worse. There are some Brahmin Liberals who would vote Grit no matter what, but most Liberals vote Liberal primarily to keep out the Tories.

Of course, it wouldn't be *precisely* Cameron/Clegg, largely because of the slipperiness of Ontario Liberal ideology.  That is, there's a lot more natural "Ford Nation Liberalism" in the GTA, whereas Thatcherite Lib Dems are more of an alienating oxymoron...

I have to disagree with that, because "Ford Nation Liberalism" is not something I see the current Liberal Party supporting. There are significant differences between Ford's moderately conservative populism, and the OLP's technocratic social liberalism. Both can appeal to the same kinds of people (Ford Nation Liberals, as you noted), but that's not a reliable base for either party. The Liberal base leans left, is fundamentally more trusting/supportive of an activist government, more inclined to promote urbanist policies like public transit and high-density zoning, really prioritizes spending more on healthcare and education, etc. I don't think base Liberals would forgive their party coalescing with a party that fundamentally distrusts activist governments, loves to pave highways, not friendly with public-sector unions, etc - unless Ford makes some major concessions, which is very risky on his part when he's already on thin ice with base tories.

Given that, here's how I see the possible outcomes:
1. PC Majority: Nuff said.
2. PC Minority, Libs second: the Libs would push for a Horgan-Weaver style arrangement to change the government. I think the NDP would be more likely to agree than not.
3. PC Minority, NDP second: same as above, but harder to see the Liberals coalescing with NDP, because they don't want to legitimize the NDP as a real governing alternative. More likely to just support vote-by-vote PC rule
4. NDP Minority: Vote-by-vote NDP rule. Liberals would not coalesce with the PCs in this situation. Most Liberals vote Liberal to keep the Tories out, not the NDP
5. OLP Minority: Vote-by-vote OLP rule
6. NDP/OLP Majority: Not gonna happen, and not necessary to explain.

I just can't see the possibility of the Liberals entering anything resembling a coalition with the PCs, not even to stop the NDP. The idea that Liberals are more like Tories than NDP may be true on some issues, but that's not how most Liberal supporters see their party, and the OLP would be stupid to not understand that,

[DL]

Surely if the OLP refused to support an NDP minority government and instead propped up Ford it would have a catastrophic effect on Liberal support and they would get “Clegged” in the subsequent election

[adma]

I have to disagree with that, because "Ford Nation Liberalism" is not something I see the current Liberal Party supporting. There are significant differences between Ford's moderately conservative populism, and the OLP's technocratic social liberalism. Both can appeal to the same kinds of people (Ford Nation Liberals, as you noted), but that's not a reliable base for either party. The Liberal base leans left, is fundamentally more trusting/supportive of an activist government, more inclined to promote urbanist policies like public transit and high-density zoning, really prioritizes spending more on healthcare and education, etc. I don't think base Liberals would forgive their party coalescing with a party that fundamentally distrusts activist governments, loves to pave highways, not friendly with public-sector unions, etc - unless Ford makes some major concessions, which is very risky on his part when he's already on thin ice with base tories.

You're right insofar as it echoes the trajectory of the federal Justin Liberals, where the Tom Wappel or Paul Steckle element's been expunged (and "borderline" vets like John McKay or Judy Sgro are grandfathered in, but likely wouldn't make modern-day vetting were they still unreservedly their old selves).

Nonetheless, the "more likely to just support vote-by-vote PC rule" prognosis comes closer to the likelihood than an actual Cameron/Clegg deal (which I was admittedly being flippant in labelling as such)--and which is, in the end, not that far removed from the current Justin'n'Doug strategic chumminess.  That is, Doug has *already* been laying the groundwork for "concessions"; because he *knows* Ford Nation is a big tent that includes more than just "base Tories", and indeed a lot of "folks" who supported and continue to support the Justin Libs federally...

[DL]

Remember that if Ford were to lose his majority before we could even get to this vote by vote horse trading the PCs would have to pass a Throne Speech and for that to happen he would need Liberal votes. Considering how the OLP has spent the whole campaign attacking Ford if they were to commit the original sin of supporting Ford throne speech their own members and activists would go berserk

[adma]

Remember that if Ford were to lose his majority before we could even get to this vote by vote horse trading the PCs would have to pass a Throne Speech and for that to happen he would need Liberal votes. Considering how the OLP has spent the whole campaign attacking Ford if they were to commit the original sin of supporting Ford throne speech their own members and activists would go berserk

Though when it comes to the prospect of "Clegging", it does illuminate the too-boxed-in-for-pragmatism perils of a "middle" electoral force shifting to the left.  A little like how the Clegg Lib Dems might not have suffered quite the same decimation had they not already pursued a "left of Labour" gambit in the later Blair years...

[DL]

FWIW Advanced Symbolics is doing their popular vote and seat projections with daily updates again

Right now they have the PCs just barely clinging to a majority with 63 seats with the NDP at 33 and the Libs at 27 and the Greens 1...but that seems to assume a huge number of PC/OLP tossups in the GTA and I'm not sure if that is actually happening...

https://advancedsymbolics.com/ontario-election/

[DistingFlyer]

Here's the updated poll graph:



Tories have dropped a few points in recent days, but that loss appears to have gone to the smaller conservative/populist parties (which are generally lumped in under 'others' in the polls) rather than to the Grits or New Democrats.

[King of Kensington]

Seat projections.  GTA is a real battleground between Ford Nation and traditional Liberal support:

https://twitter.com/EScrimshaw/status/1526252124904034304/photo/1

[Krago]

“Mr. Ford, you sound like you’re reading from a script.”

- Steven Del Duca, reading from a script

[toaster]

DelDuca using Layton's line was a little odd too, it was such a memorable quote that we all recognized it right away.  Stealing from such a well liked dead man.  Either reference it, "Just as Jack once said.." I would have kind of understood, okay, but to just verbatim steal the line? Also, when Steven repeatedly said "Respectfully" to Andrea about 5-6x times to get her to not engage in debate (and shut her up) really did not look good, either. I was so confused by that, it was a 1 vs 1. debate time , they are supposed to engage in debate.

Anyway,  I think Schreiner did best, the rest didn't do well at all. Not happy with any of the choices, though.

[King of Kensington]

I can see why Ford wanted to be able to bring notes.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

DelDuca using Layton's line was a little odd too, it was such a memorable quote that we all recognized it right away.  Stealing from such a well liked dead man.  Either reference it, "Just as Jack once said.." I would have kind of understood, okay, but to just verbatim steal the line? Also, when Steven repeatedly said "Respectfully" to Andrea about 5-6x times to get her to not engage in debate (and shut her up) really did not look good, either. I was so confused by that, it was a 1 vs 1. debate time , they are supposed to engage in debate.

Anyway,  I think Schreiner did best, the rest didn't do well at all. Not happy with any of the choices, though.

That's the thing with Del Duca, he's not very likeable. Ford and Horwath were no rockstars either, but they're known quantities. But it was important for Del Duca to put on a good face, and I don't think he did.

[adma]

DelDuca using Layton's line was a little odd too, it was such a memorable quote that we all recognized it right away.  Stealing from such a well liked dead man.  Either reference it, "Just as Jack once said.." I would have kind of understood, okay, but to just verbatim steal the line? Also, when Steven repeatedly said "Respectfully" to Andrea about 5-6x times to get her to not engage in debate (and shut her up) really did not look good, either. I was so confused by that, it was a 1 vs 1. debate time , they are supposed to engage in debate.

Anyway,  I think Schreiner did best, the rest didn't do well at all. Not happy with any of the choices, though.

That's the thing with Del Duca, he's not very likeable. Ford and Horwath were no rockstars either, but they're known quantities. But it was important for Del Duca to put on a good face, and I don't think he did.

As is often the case, though, just being there might have benefited him,"good face" or not.  (*How much*, I don't know.)

Conversely, I've seen it voiced that Horwath was strangely de-energized compared to past performances--maybe *she* quietly knows that it's a valedictory effort on her part...

[King of Kensington]

Delivered Layton's line against Ignatieff like Ignatieff.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

DelDuca using Layton's line was a little odd too, it was such a memorable quote that we all recognized it right away.  Stealing from such a well liked dead man.  Either reference it, "Just as Jack once said.." I would have kind of understood, okay, but to just verbatim steal the line? Also, when Steven repeatedly said "Respectfully" to Andrea about 5-6x times to get her to not engage in debate (and shut her up) really did not look good, either. I was so confused by that, it was a 1 vs 1. debate time , they are supposed to engage in debate.

Anyway,  I think Schreiner did best, the rest didn't do well at all. Not happy with any of the choices, though.

That's the thing with Del Duca, he's not very likeable. Ford and Horwath were no rockstars either, but they're known quantities. But it was important for Del Duca to put on a good face, and I don't think he did.

As is often the case, though, just being there might have benefited him,"good face" or not.  (*How much*, I don't know.)

Conversely, I've seen it voiced that Horwath was strangely de-energized compared to past performances--maybe *she* quietly knows that it's a valedictory effort on her part...

It's hard not to be dejected when you're in her position. She probably knows that unless she somehow winds up as premier, this is likely to be her last run. The NDP campaign hasn't quite landed, and mediocre debate performances aside (debates rarely swing elections, unless there's a knockout punch or a major gaffe, which there weren't), Del Duca's running a decent campaign.

[adma]

DelDuca using Layton's line was a little odd too, it was such a memorable quote that we all recognized it right away.  Stealing from such a well liked dead man.  Either reference it, "Just as Jack once said.." I would have kind of understood, okay, but to just verbatim steal the line? Also, when Steven repeatedly said "Respectfully" to Andrea about 5-6x times to get her to not engage in debate (and shut her up) really did not look good, either. I was so confused by that, it was a 1 vs 1. debate time , they are supposed to engage in debate.

Anyway,  I think Schreiner did best, the rest didn't do well at all. Not happy with any of the choices, though.

That's the thing with Del Duca, he's not very likeable. Ford and Horwath were no rockstars either, but they're known quantities. But it was important for Del Duca to put on a good face, and I don't think he did.

As is often the case, though, just being there might have benefited him,"good face" or not.  (*How much*, I don't know.)

Conversely, I've seen it voiced that Horwath was strangely de-energized compared to past performances--maybe *she* quietly knows that it's a valedictory effort on her part...

It's hard not to be dejected when you're in her position. She probably knows that unless she somehow winds up as premier, this is likely to be her last run. The NDP campaign hasn't quite landed, and mediocre debate performances aside (debates rarely swing elections, unless there's a knockout punch or a major gaffe, which there weren't), Del Duca's running a decent campaign.

And another critical thing (with, yes, an undertone of boy's club sexism as well as vested interests) is that, again, the debate *did* draw attention to Del Duca, regardless of the quality of his performance--and not only that, but the interaction dynamic btw/Ford & Del Duca *seemed* to frame the race in traditional PC/Lib-race comfort-zone terms w/the NDP but a sideshow.  Which for Ford, must be satisfying, knowing that his preferred "primary opposition" is a mediocrity--nothing like a Del Duca to make Ford feel *real* formidable.  And according to that construct, Andrea and her caucus is as useless as the Bloc Quebecois is federally...

[DL]

As of this morning both Mike Schreiner and Andrea Horwath have tested positive for Covid. Seems that the Leader’s debate on Monday night may have been a superspreader event.

[DistingFlyer]

Poll graph update:

[adma]

*Now* a pollster is showing the NDP below the critical 20% threshold, seemingly dented by the Greens' good debate performance.

https://www.cp24.com/news/ford-s-pcs-maintain-lead-ndp-support-slips-survey-1.5909273