Ontario Election 2022

[MaxQue]

Re: "white ethnics" Italian Canadians are one of the most pro-Ford demographics around.  Del Duca winning Woodbridge isn't even a guarantee - though it helps that the current MPP hasn't exactly distinguished himself and he gets a leadership boost he didn't have before.  And hard to see King-Vaughan with its high income Italian demographic fall given Stephen Lecce's profile and that it went Conservative in the last federal election (with a bit of an assist from Russian Jews).  It's not your "Brahmin-liberal" demographic.

(Of course York Region is radically different from Northern Ontario).

What's the problem with Tibollo?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

While Horwath is fairly "WWC"-amenable, she's not immune to the broader trend of the non-metropolitan working class shift to the right.  And the PCs are reorienting their politics toward blue collar populism. 

I don't think Ford helps the Tories in Timmin-James Bay, he's perceived as far too Toronto centered.

Actually, the danger is more in the *NDP* being seen as "far too Toronto centered"--by comparison, Ford populism has a certain cross-provincial "universality" about it.  And besides, his form of "Toronto centered", whether through cutting city council in half or plowing through with half-baked and potentially destructive schemes for Ontario Place and the Ontario Line, is more a form of suburban-yahoo "sticking it to the lefties and urban elites".  And those out in the hinterland appreciate that kind of "sticking it".  Plus, there's the matter of broader hinterland rightward trending, as evidenced by Charlie Angus's weak federal share last time and the surprisingly strong PPC share in TJB--and furthermore, provincially speaking, thanks to the "splicing-out" of the far-north ridings this is no longer TJB, but just plain Timmins, so there's no longer a reserve vote to counteract rightward tendencies...

There's no real evidence of that, Ford 2018 victory was based mostly on Anti-Wynne sentiment and swings in rural ridings didn't really stand out compared to to truly gargatuan swings in suburban-exurban Toronto.

[adma]

Re: "white ethnics" Italian Canadians are one of the most pro-Ford demographics around.  Del Duca winning Woodbridge isn't even a guarantee - though it helps that the current MPP hasn't exactly distinguished himself and he gets a leadership boost he didn't have before.  And hard to see King-Vaughan with its high income Italian demographic fall given Stephen Lecce's profile and that it went Conservative in the last federal election (with a bit of an assist from Russian Jews).  It's not your "Brahmin-liberal" demographic.

(Of course York Region is radically different from Northern Ontario).

What's the problem with Tibollo?

Pretty much bombed as Minister of Tourism/Culture/Sport and demoted as a consequence.  That is, his star went down as Lecce's rose...

[adma]

While Horwath is fairly "WWC"-amenable, she's not immune to the broader trend of the non-metropolitan working class shift to the right.  And the PCs are reorienting their politics toward blue collar populism. 

I don't think Ford helps the Tories in Timmin-James Bay, he's perceived as far too Toronto centered.

Actually, the danger is more in the *NDP* being seen as "far too Toronto centered"--by comparison, Ford populism has a certain cross-provincial "universality" about it.  And besides, his form of "Toronto centered", whether through cutting city council in half or plowing through with half-baked and potentially destructive schemes for Ontario Place and the Ontario Line, is more a form of suburban-yahoo "sticking it to the lefties and urban elites".  And those out in the hinterland appreciate that kind of "sticking it".  Plus, there's the matter of broader hinterland rightward trending, as evidenced by Charlie Angus's weak federal share last time and the surprisingly strong PPC share in TJB--and furthermore, provincially speaking, thanks to the "splicing-out" of the far-north ridings this is no longer TJB, but just plain Timmins, so there's no longer a reserve vote to counteract rightward tendencies...

There's no real evidence of that, Ford 2018 victory was based mostly on Anti-Wynne sentiment and swings in rural ridings didn't really stand out compared to to truly gargatuan swings in suburban-exurban Toronto.

Uh, that's because the rural ridings effectively came "pre-swung"; Ford didn't have to pull off a sweat there.  Under the circumstance, what he did was more like expand the hitherto-hinterland Tory big tent *into* the 905/outer-416 zone, much like Harris in '95 and Harper federally by '11.  And that was by tapping into a "common sentiment".

And let's put it straight: for the sake of argument, "suburban-exurban Toronto" is *not* the "Toronto" in question I'm addressing here.  The Toronto I'm talking about is the *inner* 416; and there's little or no evidence (except maybe tokenly w/Mark Saunders-style candidacies) that the Ford Tories even *care* (or indeed, *need*) to make electoral inroads there.  In fact, '18's "anti-Wynne sentiment" might as well have been "anti-Toronto sentiment", hinged in large part upon Wynne being the archetypal "Toronto elite" politician; while Horwath rose essentially by soaking up that "urban Wynne" energy.  That is, the "suburban-exurbans" you speak of are part of the same "anti-Toronto" or "anti-urban elite" coalition--and for the sake of argument, those out in the latent populist boondocks like Timmins who'd feel Horwath to be a little too "big city woke" for comfort these days would gladly team up with the "Ford ethnoburbans", because there's common cause there.  Btw/those in downtown Toronto and those in Timmins, it's the former who'd be more riled up on environmental grounds over the 413 and Bradford Bypass projects; the latter would welcome anything that "gets traffic rolling" for the promised benefit of all Ontarians, even if it's not within their own jurisdiction.  (And even back in the days of Mayor Rob Ford, it might have been claimed that he was far more popular outside of Toronto than within: the archetypal "anti-Toronto" Toronto mayor.)

And that's how it is w/Ontario politics--in high Liberal times, the red vs blue frontier runs along the outer 905; while in high Conservative times, it runs btw/the inner and outer 416.  It all depends on how broadly successful and sweeping the attempt to build an "anti-woke-urban-elite" coalition is.

When it comes to potentially augmenting the Tory caucus, Ford's already written off downtown Toronto.  It's Timmins-type places he's looking at.

And the way you speak of "Toronto" is akin to one who visits friends or relatives "in Toronto" who actually live in York/Peel/Durham, and who never really go beyond the 401/427 except to attend Jays & Raptors games.  While as far as those Lib/NDPers within the inner core go, said friends/relatives of yours (and the pro-Ford values thereof) might as well belong out in the yokel nosebleed boondocks like Bancroft or something.  (That's how Ford-style "coalitions of resentment" develop.)

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Uh, that's because the rural ridings effectively came "pre-swung"; Ford didn't have to pull off a sweat there.  Under the circumstance, what he did was more like expand the hitherto-hinterland Tory big tent *into* the 905/outer-416 zone, much like Harris in '95 and Harper federally by '11.  And that was by tapping into a "common sentiment".

The fact that he didn't require a swing there to win doesn't change the fact that areas didn't really swing towards him much undercutting your thesis that Ford's brand of anti-Toronto elitism is popular there. Where is your evidence that Ford specific brand has attracted any unique support that wouldn't come to any other generic PC leader ?

And let's put it straight: for the sake of argument, "suburban-exurban Toronto" is *not* the "Toronto" in question I'm addressing here.  The Toronto I'm talking about is the *inner* 416; and there's little or no evidence (except maybe tokenly w/Mark Saunders-style candidacies) that the Ford Tories even *care* (or indeed, *need*) to make electoral inroads there.  In fact, '18's "anti-Wynne sentiment" might as well have been "anti-Toronto sentiment", hinged in large part upon Wynne being the archetypal "Toronto elite" politician; while Horwath rose essentially by soaking up that "urban Wynne" energy.  That is, the "suburban-exurbans" you speak of are part of the same "anti-Toronto" or "anti-urban elite" coalition--and for the sake of argument, those out in the latent populist boondocks like Timmins who'd feel Horwath to be a little too "big city woke" for comfort these days would gladly team up with the "Ford ethnoburbans", because there's common cause there.  Btw/those in downtown Toronto and those in Timmins, it's the former who'd be more riled up on environmental grounds over the 413 and Bradford Bypass projects; the latter would welcome anything that "gets traffic rolling" for the promised benefit of all Ontarians, even if it's not within their own jurisdiction.  (And even back in the days of Mayor Rob Ford, it might have been claimed that he was far more popular outside of Toronto than within: the archetypal "anti-Toronto" Toronto mayor.)

No one is denying the fact that Ford's families rise to power came from channeling the grievances of the amalgamated cities against downtown Toronto. What I am challenging is the idea that specific brand resonates much in isolated communities like Timmins which frankly does not have the links with Toronto specific enough to differentiate between the outer parts and inner-parts. To them and other residents of rural ridings with little connection to the downtown it might simply look like a bickering fight between two parties who you view as being fundemetnalty similar.

Where is your evidence that Ford's brand of politics resonates in rural isolated areas ?

[adma]

Uh, that's because the rural ridings effectively came "pre-swung"; Ford didn't have to pull off a sweat there.  Under the circumstance, what he did was more like expand the hitherto-hinterland Tory big tent *into* the 905/outer-416 zone, much like Harris in '95 and Harper federally by '11.  And that was by tapping into a "common sentiment".

The fact that he didn't require a swing there to win doesn't change the fact that areas didn't really swing towards him much undercutting your thesis that Ford's brand of anti-Toronto elitism is popular there. Where is your evidence that Ford specific brand has attracted any unique support that wouldn't come to any other generic PC leader ?

Well, to repeat Filuwaúrdjan quote earlier in the thread...

*Whatever else you can say of the Ford Brothers, they have been very good at doing that - are multi-ethnic industrial suburbs and sink estates natural territory for conservative politics? Certainly not, and yet just look.

And of course, Etobicoke North would have been Tory-unwinnable otherwise (and HEBC and YSW would have been 3-way/Tory-2nd-ahead-of-Libs-impossible otherwise).

But of course, those are the urban seats of which you speak.  As far as preexisting Tory seats go: there might not have been *as much of a* swing to the Tories in the hinterland, but there was a swing anyway, largely at the expense of the Libs.  Anything more was redundant, as there'll always be an "anti-Tory" bedrock, even there.  Unless one abides by some idiot-psephological logic that just as the PCs were able to double their share or more to victory in GTA seats, then a seat like Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound ought to have been way up in Crowfoot country.

So it isn't *really* about Ford bringing any unique support to where the PCs were already strong--he didn't need to.  And the more critical places where the Ford Tories underwhelmed relative to the bigger picture weren't in the hinterland, but in the more "cosmopolitan" urban centres:  inner Toronto, Ottawa, etc.

No one is denying the fact that Ford's families rise to power came from channeling the grievances of the amalgamated cities against downtown Toronto. What I am challenging is the idea that specific brand resonates much in isolated communities like Timmins which frankly does not have the links with Toronto specific enough to differentiate between the outer parts and inner-parts. To them and other residents of rural ridings with little connection to the downtown it might simply look like a bickering fight between two parties who you view as being fundemetnalty similar.

Where is your evidence that Ford's brand of politics resonates in rural isolated areas ?

You have to realize that it's not so much specific to Ford as it is symbiotic w/a broader trend t/w working-class right-populism even in areas once felt to be immune to the lure of the Conservatives (eg Labour's Red Wall)--and hints of that were in the past couple of federal elections, both of which came *after* Gilles Bisson's last victory.  Yes, I know Charlie Angus is more of an "outsider" to Timmins proper than Bisson, so is more disadvantaged within this turf.  But all the same, it might be said that Timmins was less of a Tory priority in '18, and Bisson had his electoral history as well as Horwathmania going for him, so that had a way of camouflaging the danger potential beneath the surface.  And that was *before* the last pair of federal elections.

Ford Nation is just one strain of "something bigger".  It's in the same sense that were it the UK, Timmins might be likelier as a "Leave" kind of place.

And even if those within Timmins might generically lack the links to Toronto to draw inner vs outer distinctions, it doesn't mean they're immune to "urban elites" vs "the people" pitches.  And you can be sure that Doug Ford's style of campaigning would play that to the hilt, and try to paint Official Opposition Leader Horwath as being in hock to the urban elites and "special interests":  "you may have voted NDP all those years, but the PCs are henceforth your true home", etc.  (And of course, when it comes to the North, you can be sure that aboriginal issues would be an ugly, unspoken bear-in-the-room when it comes to right-exploitable "special interests".)

[King of Kensington]

"Anti-Toronto elitism" already existed in Ontario's hinterland.  Mike Harris rammed through amalgamation and could care less what inner Toronto "progressives" thought about it - not his base.  So Ford didn't really need to "create" anything outside the GTA.

[adma]

"Anti-Toronto elitism" already existed in Ontario's hinterland.  Mike Harris rammed through amalgamation and could care less what inner Toronto "progressives" thought about it - not his base.  So Ford didn't really need to "create" anything outside the GTA.

Though one does admit that the notion of Timmins as actively Conservative-targetable is new (other than one-offs such as Kap mayor Al Spacek in '11--and pre-Bisson, a form of Tory populism thrived in Timmins under former leadership contender Alan Pope).  But it's part of a more universal pattern--and if the Tories are looking to build, or at least to "scare the opposition", it's in places like that.  Just like the more critical Labour scalps claimed by the Boris Tories were in places like Dennis Skinner's Bolsover, not within central London, even if a lot of central London went with the 80s Thatcherite flow much as the Harris Tories remained electable within inner Toronto in the 90s in a way the Ford Tories couldn't be.

Remember, too, that what we're talking about is more "anti-elitism" than specifically "anti-Toronto".  (After all, where Ford fell most short in '18 was where it was most "elite" or "educated class":  inner Toronto, Ottawa, even places like Kitchener-Waterloo count.  And that includes nearly losing what ought to have been slam dunks, and acknowledges that the Ford Tories actually *overachieved* expectations in a lot of the places they lost.)

[MaxQue]

Also totally absent of the non-sensical Tory spin put forward by adma is the fact the PC government did nothing for Northeastern Ontario and their downright hostility to Francophones (which are an important group in Timmins area).

[King of Kensington]

But it's part of a more universal pattern--and if the Tories are looking to build, or at least to "scare the opposition", it's in places like that.  Just like the more critical Labour scalps claimed by the Boris Tories were in places like Dennis Skinner's Bolsover, not within central London, even if a lot of central London went with the 80s Thatcherite flow much as the Harris Tories remained electable within inner Toronto in the 90s in a way the Ford Tories couldn't be.

25 years ago, the idea of the PCs having a better shot at Timmins than St. Paul's was untenable.  But that's where we're at.

[adma]

Also totally absent of the non-sensical Tory spin put forward by adma is the fact the PC government did nothing for Northeastern Ontario and their downright hostility to Francophones (which are an important group in Timmins area).

I'm not precisely forecasting the Tories will win, because I agree that Bisson *should* be favoured unless Ford's *really* headed into Peterson '87 territory.  However, regardless of what he actually *did*, Doug Ford's good at grandstanding on behalf of the North together with his cabinet bosom buddy Greg Rickford--and then there's the matter of the federal Cons together with PPC last election.  So you can be sure, together w/*whom* they're running, that there's some kind of "careful" strategic thinking here--I'm not saying it's not destined to fail, I'm just acknowledging and presenting it as a forewarning in case it succeeds.  And when it comes to hostility to Francophones: yes, there might be wolf-in-sheep's-clothing tactics on Ford's part, but don't forget how in the North, that could be in fact be electorally mobilized among the non-Franco populace much like hostility to First Nations has been.  (And indeed, might underlie the strong PPC figure last time, as a proxy for past Confederation of Regions-type forces--though if *that's* the case, maybe it was more a factor in Timiskaming District than within Timmins, judging from past patterns.)

The big things working on behalf of Bisson, though, are (a) long-term incumbency, (b) demographics (not just the Franco factor, but the fact that Timmins *is*, in the end, "urban", which can damper the Tory base much as it does in Sudbury), and (c) a possible/likely continued sentiment that a Lib vote is  a wasted vote, unless Del Duca makes big gestures t/w the OLP being a "Francophone party" and thus shoving the Cons up the middle.  However, in a post-Bisson/post-Angus (and maybe post-Ford) era, don't be *entirely* surprised if Timmins sees Conservative parliamentary representation.

[adma]

25 years ago, the idea of the PCs having a better shot at Timmins than St. Paul's was untenable.  But that's where we're at.

*35* years ago, though, under *entirely* different circumstances, provincial PC leader Larry Grossman lost in St Andrew-St Patrick (a riding whose most "Tory" parts lie in present-day St Paul's), while his former PC leadership rival Alan Pope won in Cochrane South (the predecessor to Timmins).  But Pope (whose local appeal was more personal than partisan) fell out w/the party, didn't run again in 1990, and Bisson was elected on Bob Rae's coattails while the PCs finished under 5%, in 4th behind the Confederation of Regions.  (Indeed, the subsequent local grip of "Bisson populism" through his party's most fallow years is not unlike that of Alan Pope in the '87 PC annus horribilis.)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I like Del Duca's idea of a regionalized minimum wage. It would be unfair to expect a small business in Timiskaming District to pay their employees Toronto wages, but conversely, $15/hr is hardly enough to survive in Toronto. This kind of promise plays to the strength of the Liberals - run on promises that appeals to the progressive base, but also add some nuance to appeal to moderates.

Then again, Dougie's announcing a childcare deal with the feds tomorrow, which will be much bigger news.

[King of Kensington]

25 years ago, the idea of the PCs having a better shot at Timmins than St. Paul's was untenable.  But that's where we're at.

*35* years ago, though, under *entirely* different circumstances, provincial PC leader Larry Grossman lost in St Andrew-St Patrick (a riding whose most "Tory" parts lie in present-day St Paul's), while his former PC leadership rival Alan Pope won in Cochrane South (the predecessor to Timmins).  But Pope (whose local appeal was more personal than partisan) fell out w/the party, didn't run again in 1990, and Bisson was elected on Bob Rae's coattails while the PCs finished under 5%, in 4th behind the Confederation of Regions.  (Indeed, the subsequent local grip of "Bisson populism" through his party's most fallow years is not unlike that of Alan Pope in the '87 PC annus horribilis.)

Good point.  
 
My political memory goes back to the 1990s/Harris years and the matching of the federal and provincial ridings in Ontario, so I guess Cochrane South slipped my mind.  The PCs of the Bill Davis era actually did quite well in Northern Ontario.  Ironically it was Mike Harris of North Bay who really bombed in the north.  

Ontario's political history of previous generations is really quite fascinating.  The NDP is a miniature "labor party" and does well where you'd expect it: industrial centers, inner cities, working class suburbs.  And of the "non-socialist" parties, the Liberals were the more rural party until the 1980s (particularly in SW Ontario), while the PCs were a very successful big tent party.  

But in 1987, the Peterson Liberals really, really succeed as the "party of everybody" - urban, suburban, rural, all the regions represented.  Both the old rural conservative and diverse urban party are there.  You see 60%+ results in ridings as different as Scarborough North and Huron. 

[adma]

My political memory goes back to the 1990s/Harris years and the matching of the federal and provincial ridings in Ontario, so I guess Cochrane South slipped my mind.  The PCs of the Bill Davis era actually did quite well in Northern Ontario.  Ironically it was Mike Harris of North Bay who really bombed in the north.  

Though by 1987, Pope really was exceptional, like Ruth-Ellen Brosseau relative to the NDP in Quebec in '19 and '21.

Also, Harris's bombing in the north had a bit of an assist from how, in '90, Confederation of Regions gave the PCs in the north a bit of a "4th party" stigma, not unlike what Reform would do to the federal PCs in '93.  And even if the CoR phenomenon ebbed by '95, the crippling effect it had on PC infrastructure in the north was lasting...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

25 years ago, the idea of the PCs having a better shot at Timmins than St. Paul's was untenable.  But that's where we're at.

*35* years ago, though, under *entirely* different circumstances, provincial PC leader Larry Grossman lost in St Andrew-St Patrick (a riding whose most "Tory" parts lie in present-day St Paul's), while his former PC leadership rival Alan Pope won in Cochrane South (the predecessor to Timmins).  But Pope (whose local appeal was more personal than partisan) fell out w/the party, didn't run again in 1990, and Bisson was elected on Bob Rae's coattails while the PCs finished under 5%, in 4th behind the Confederation of Regions.  (Indeed, the subsequent local grip of "Bisson populism" through his party's most fallow years is not unlike that of Alan Pope in the '87 PC annus horribilis.)

Good point.  
 
My political memory goes back to the 1990s/Harris years and the matching of the federal and provincial ridings in Ontario, so I guess Cochrane South slipped my mind.  The PCs of the Bill Davis era actually did quite well in Northern Ontario.  Ironically it was Mike Harris of North Bay who really bombed in the north.  

Ontario's political history of previous generations is really quite fascinating.  The NDP is a miniature "labor party" and does well where you'd expect it: industrial centers, inner cities, working class suburbs.  And of the "non-socialist" parties, the Liberals were the more rural party until the 1980s (particularly in SW Ontario), while the PCs were a very successful big tent party.  

But in 1987, the Peterson Liberals really, really succeed as the "party of everybody" - urban, suburban, rural, all the regions represented.  Both the old rural conservative and diverse urban party are there.  You see 60%+ results in ridings as different as Scarborough North and Huron. 

The urban/rural split dynamic in (southern) Ontario is very strong today, which makes it easy to forget how new this dynamic is. One of the upsets of the 2011 provincial election was the narrow defeat of the Liberal environment minister in his riding of...Perth--Wellington! Eleven years on, the idea of a Liberal even winning in Perth--Wellington in the first place is laughable.

[MaxQue]

25 years ago, the idea of the PCs having a better shot at Timmins than St. Paul's was untenable.  But that's where we're at.

*35* years ago, though, under *entirely* different circumstances, provincial PC leader Larry Grossman lost in St Andrew-St Patrick (a riding whose most "Tory" parts lie in present-day St Paul's), while his former PC leadership rival Alan Pope won in Cochrane South (the predecessor to Timmins).  But Pope (whose local appeal was more personal than partisan) fell out w/the party, didn't run again in 1990, and Bisson was elected on Bob Rae's coattails while the PCs finished under 5%, in 4th behind the Confederation of Regions.  (Indeed, the subsequent local grip of "Bisson populism" through his party's most fallow years is not unlike that of Alan Pope in the '87 PC annus horribilis.)

Good point.  
 
My political memory goes back to the 1990s/Harris years and the matching of the federal and provincial ridings in Ontario, so I guess Cochrane South slipped my mind.  The PCs of the Bill Davis era actually did quite well in Northern Ontario.  Ironically it was Mike Harris of North Bay who really bombed in the north.  

Ontario's political history of previous generations is really quite fascinating.  The NDP is a miniature "labor party" and does well where you'd expect it: industrial centers, inner cities, working class suburbs.  And of the "non-socialist" parties, the Liberals were the more rural party until the 1980s (particularly in SW Ontario), while the PCs were a very successful big tent party.  

But in 1987, the Peterson Liberals really, really succeed as the "party of everybody" - urban, suburban, rural, all the regions represented.  Both the old rural conservative and diverse urban party are there.  You see 60%+ results in ridings as different as Scarborough North and Huron. 

I know Northern Ontarians who think North Bay is the first city in the south, rather than being part of the north.

[King of Kensington]

The urban/rural split dynamic in (southern) Ontario is very strong today, which makes it easy to forget how new this dynamic is. One of the upsets of the 2011 provincial election was the narrow defeat of the Liberal environment minister in his riding of...Perth--Wellington! Eleven years on, the idea of a Liberal even winning in Perth--Wellington in the first place is laughable.

Yeah, SW Ontario "ancestral Liberalism" died off in the 21st century.

[King of Kensington]

Ontario's political history of previous generations is really quite fascinating.  The NDP is a miniature "labor party" and does well where you'd expect it: industrial centers, inner cities, working class suburbs.

1990 being the obvious exception where they all sorts of crazy rural wins.  And the "905" area code didn't exist yet and was of less importance then.  Obviously that map is not replicable today for the NDP.

[King of Kensington]

I know Northern Ontarians who think North Bay is the first city in the south, rather than being part of the north.

Interesting the PCs had three leaders from this "transitional" area: Frank Miller (Muskoka), Mike Harris (North Bay), Ernie Eves (Parry Sound, though he had moved onto Dufferin County and environs by the time he was leader/premier).

[toaster]

Any news on who the ONDP is running in Beaches - East York?  Berns-Mcgown is not running again.  Might we see Matthew Kellway?  Not sure who else would run here, but B-EY loves their youngish straight white men (Brad, Nathaniel) who campaign on the left but govern/vote on the right.

Also curious to know if Kevin Yarde is seeking re-election in Brampton North?  I don't think that has been announced yet.

[beesley]

Also curious to know if Kevin Yarde is seeking re-election in Brampton North?  I don't think that has been announced yet.

He's facing a nomination challenge from someone called Sandeep Singh.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Any news on who the ONDP is running in Beaches - East York?  Berns-Mcgown is not running again.  Might we see Matthew Kellway?  Not sure who else would run here, but B-EY loves their youngish straight white men (Brad, Nathaniel) who campaign on the left but govern/vote on the right.

Nate Erskine-Smith votes on the right? He's pretty much as left as you can go as a Liberal before hitting NDP territory

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I know Northern Ontarians who think North Bay is the first city in the south, rather than being part of the north.

Interesting the PCs had three leaders from this "transitional" area: Frank Miller (Muskoka), Mike Harris (North Bay), Ernie Eves (Parry Sound, though he had moved onto Dufferin County and environs by the time he was leader/premier).

Not to mention, John Tory took over from Ernie Eves in Dufferin County. He then tried in Don Valley West, lost, ran in a byelection, and lost to a Liberal in Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock. I'm surprised he jumped back into politics after suffering a humiliation like that, lol.

But yeah the "transitional" area is typically a Tory stronghold, so it's not too surprising that so many Tory leaders come from there. The weird one is Nipissing--Timiskaming/North Bay which is swingy in theory, but loyal to strong local names like Harris, Fedeli, and Rota.

[King of Kensington]

Also curious to know if Kevin Yarde is seeking re-election in Brampton North?  I don't think that has been announced yet.

He's facing a nomination challenge from someone called Sandeep Singh.

I'm quite familiar with the inner workings of the NDP and I can assure that incumbents do not face nominations unless it has the blessing of party HQ.