Rate Nevada
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June 01, 2024, 06:57:54 PM
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Poll
Question: It's never too early.
#1
Safe D		  
#2
Likely D		  
#3
Lean D		  
#4
Tossup/Tilt D		  
#5
Tossup/Tilt R		  
#6
Lean R		  
#7
Likely R		  
#8
Safe R		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 86

Author Topic: Rate Nevada  (Read 3272 times)
MATTROSE94
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E: -5.29, S: -6.43

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« Reply #50 on: June 19, 2021, 10:15:58 PM »
Quote from: MR. KAYNE WEST on June 19, 2021, 09:48:15 PM
There hasn't been any polls showing Laxalt ahead of CCM
There will hopefully be some polls for this race in a few weeks or months. I vaguely recall there being one in November which showed CCM about 10 points behind Brian Sandoval (who opted against running).
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Nightcore Nationalist
Okthisisnotepic.
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« Reply #51 on: June 19, 2021, 10:25:14 PM »
Although Heller lost by 5 points, don't forget that 2018 was a D+8 wave year.  So in a neutral environment, Heller would have held on (by a slim margin).

Taking in to consideration the trajectory of Biden's approval, GOP voter engagement (so much for the "muh low propensity Trump voters" narrative), and the likely R+1-4 midterm environment, there is a very good chance this is a pure toss up race, but I'll currently put it at tilt D out of caution as even today the Democrats have a solid structural advantage in the Silver state.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #52 on: June 19, 2021, 10:30:04 PM »
Lean R
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #53 on: June 20, 2021, 01:56:28 AM »
Tilt D.

I'd actually rate Rosen as the weaker of the two Nevada Senators going forward, as Cortez Masto being Latina should in theory juice Latinx turnout in her favor.
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MATTROSE94
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #54 on: June 20, 2021, 08:00:53 AM »
Quote from: NewYorkExpress on June 20, 2021, 01:56:28 AM
Tilt D.

I'd actually rate Rosen as the weaker of the two Nevada Senators going forward, as Cortez Masto being Latina should in theory juice Latinx turnout in her favor.
Jacky Rosen I am pretty sure is toast in 2024 if either Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis carries Nevada. Brian Sandoval, Dean Heller, Heidi Gansert, or Mark Hutchinson could easily defeat her. Even Danny Tarkanian would be mildly favored against her.   
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #55 on: June 20, 2021, 05:23:10 PM »
Jacky Rosen isn't toast in a Prez yr with Biden on the ballot if Rs couldn't beat her with Dean Heller


Biden is expected to win NV comfortably
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MargieCat
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« Reply #56 on: June 20, 2021, 10:16:42 PM »
It's laughable how so many on this forum act like Nevada is a Lean-R state.

Trump didn't even win it in 2016.

Yet Laxalt is favored to defeat CCM...
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #57 on: June 20, 2021, 10:57:27 PM »
« Edited: June 20, 2021, 11:01:23 PM by MATTROSE94 »
Quote from: MargieCat on June 20, 2021, 10:16:42 PM
It's laughable how so many on this forum act like Nevada is a Lean-R state.

Trump didn't even win it in 2016.

Yet Laxalt is favored to defeat CCM...
Donald Trump did come within 34,000 votes of winning Nevada in 2020. A 3 or 4% swing in Clark County would be more than enough to push Adam Laxalt over the top. Not to mention that Joe Lombardo is heavily favored to defeat Steve Sisolak for the Governorship, so he may have some coattails that help Adam Laxalt.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #58 on: June 20, 2021, 10:58:46 PM »
Mattress is the only one that thinks NV is R trending and MT Treasurer, but the reason why CCM and Rosen will win, similarities to NH, in the state Legislature along with MA, the 3 states are dominated by females in the state Legislature

The state is used to having females in the state Legislature, and CCM is a Prosecutir
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #59 on: June 20, 2021, 10:59:48 PM »
Quote from: MATTROSE94 on June 20, 2021, 10:57:27 PM
Quote from: MargieCat on June 20, 2021, 10:16:42 PM
It's laughable how so many on this forum act like Nevada is a Lean-R state.

Trump didn't even win it in 2016.

Yet Laxalt is favored to defeat CCM...
Donald Trump did come within 34,00votes of winning Nevada in 2020. A 3 or 4% swing in Clark County would be more than enough to push Adam Laxalt over the top. Not to mention that Joe Lombardo is heavily favored to defeat Steve Sisolak for the Governorship, so he may have some coattails that help Adam Laxalt.

There isn't one poll that shows D's loosing the Gov or Senate race and you say heavily favored lol
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #60 on: June 20, 2021, 11:46:06 PM »
Quote from: MATTROSE94 on June 20, 2021, 10:57:27 PM
Donald Trump did come within 34,000 votes of winning Nevada in 2020. A 3 or 4% swing in Clark County would be more than enough to push Adam Laxalt over the top. Not to mention that Joe Lombardo is heavily favored to defeat Steve Sisolak for the Governorship, so he may have some coattails that help Adam Laxalt.

What exactly are you basing the idea that Lombardo is heavily favored for Governor on?  Also while it's true a 3-4% swing in Clark county would push Laxalt over the top what exactly is pointing to that happening? My guess is CCM outperforms Biden with Hispanics and thus matches/exceeds his performance in Clark county. Also I don't think Laxalt can win Washoe county like Heck did in 2016. Washoe was Heck's base and Washoe has been trending left.  Of course it is too early to guess but IMHO CCM starts out a relatively strong favorite.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #61 on: June 21, 2021, 10:10:47 AM »
Quote from: MargieCat on June 20, 2021, 10:16:42 PM
It's laughable how so many on this forum act like Nevada is a Lean-R state.

Trump didn't even win it in 2016.

Yet Laxalt is favored to defeat CCM...

Look at the poll. Less than 20% of this forum is predicting Republicans winning this seat. If this were a Dem-trending but R-leaning state where a Republican was the incumbent in a midterm, the results would look way, way different because this forum only cares about Democratic trends. Talk about Republican trends and you'll start to hear "maxed out" a lot.
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