Rate Nevada

[SnowLabrador]

My guess is tossup, with a slight tilt R.

[Spectator]

Lean D. I don’t think Laxalt is the one to beat Masto. She should be glad Lombardo is running for Governor.

[Chips]

Toss-up.

[Xing]

Lean D, bite me. Masto isn’t safe, and could obviously lose under the right circumstances, but I maintain that she’s more likely to win than Kelly or Hassan, and that a 3-point national shift to the Republicans won’t automatically flip this seat.

[Sir Mohamed]

As of today, Lean D.

Rating may change to tossup/tilt D, depending on the challenger. Laxalt ain't the strongest candidate. That said, a hot take: If neither Sununu nor Ayotte't run, CCM is slightly more vulnerable. One of these 2 will run in NH though.

[Non Swing Voter]

til to lean D, closer to lean D.

2020 was bad for Dems in tourist places that were hurt by the economy closing (Hawaii, Las Vegas, Miami).  They should improve in 2022 so I'd expect the Dem to win by about 5.

[beesley]

I'd say Tilt D, for similar reasons to Xing even though our rating was different.

[ElectionsGuy]

Easy pickup for Republicans. Nevada is the next Arkansas.

[Calthrina950]

til to lean D, closer to lean D.

2020 was bad for Dems in tourist places that were hurt by the economy closing (Hawaii, Las Vegas, Miami).  They should improve in 2022 so I'd expect the Dem to win by about 5.

Why are you so confident in Democrats improving to such an extent next year? You seem to believe that 2022 is on track to be another 2002, but for the Democrats rather than the Republicans. I wouldn't be surprised if Masto wins reelection, but this isn't a race Democrats can take for granted.

[MargieCat]

My guess is tossup, with a slight tilt R.

Of course it is...

[MT Treasurer]

^I like how "Tossup, with a slight tilt R" is deemed some bold/hackish prediction for this race on here, lol.

Anyway...

Safe 'This race will cause people to lose their minds'

Tossup between AZ-SEN and NV-SEN in the race for 'most insufferable analysis/conventional wisdom of any race'

[MargieCat]

^I like how "Tossup, with a slight tilt R" is deemed some bold/hackish prediction for this race on here, lol.

Anyway...

Safe 'This race will cause people to lose their minds'

Tossup between AZ-SEN and NV-SEN in the race for 'most insufferable analysis/conventional wisdom of any race'

I'd say it's somewhere between a democratic tilt and a democratic lean.

Republicans haven't gotten lucky in Nevada in years. With the exception of a secretary of state race in 2018, democrats typically have the advantage in this state.

It's such a small state, with the population centering in Clark and Washoe counties.

While the margins are typically close, democrats only need to win Clark by just over 6 points if the other margins stay the same in the rural areas. They won Clark by 9.54% this election. As long as the democrats run up the numbers in Clark, they win the race.

And you have to remember that she is Catherine Cortez Masto, the only Latina senator. Of course all the doomers and hacks on here will say "With the Hispanics trending right, she is DOA"

[Non Swing Voter]

til to lean D, closer to lean D.

2020 was bad for Dems in tourist places that were hurt by the economy closing (Hawaii, Las Vegas, Miami).  They should improve in 2022 so I'd expect the Dem to win by about 5.

Why are you so confident in Democrats improving to such an extent next year? You seem to believe that 2022 is on track to be another 2002, but for the Democrats rather than the Republicans. I wouldn't be surprised if Masto wins reelection, but this isn't a race Democrats can take for granted.

I didn't say they should take it for granted.  The 5 point margin assumes she runs a very good campaign as I expect her to.  But I said a million times that Nevada would be closer than people expected in 2020 and everyone here said no, it's a lean democratic state.  That's still true, but like I said above, Las Vegas was wrecked by the covid shutdowns which people associated with democrats.  People here underestimate how much people vote their own interests.  That is no longer a factor so I expect things to revert back to normal.  People here are viewing this election through the prism of the 2020 results, but the results should have been a healthier margin for Democrats but for the issue above. 

[Calthrina950]

til to lean D, closer to lean D.

2020 was bad for Dems in tourist places that were hurt by the economy closing (Hawaii, Las Vegas, Miami).  They should improve in 2022 so I'd expect the Dem to win by about 5.

Why are you so confident in Democrats improving to such an extent next year? You seem to believe that 2022 is on track to be another 2002, but for the Democrats rather than the Republicans. I wouldn't be surprised if Masto wins reelection, but this isn't a race Democrats can take for granted.

I didn't say they should take it for granted.  The 5 point margin assumes she runs a very good campaign as I expect her to.  But I said a million times that Nevada would be closer than people expected in 2020 and everyone here said no, it's a lean democratic state.  That's still true, but like I said above, Las Vegas was wrecked by the covid shutdowns which people associated with democrats.  People here underestimate how much people vote their own interests.  That is no longer a factor so I expect things to revert back to normal.  People here are viewing this election through the prism of the 2020 results, but the results should have been a healthier margin for Democrats but for the issue above. 

I certainly think much of your explanation for why Nevada swung right last year-anger induced to the coronavirus shutdowns-is correct, and I do believe that Masto starts off with the advantage in her race. But your analysis isn't confined to Nevada alone; you seem to believe that Democrats will overperform across the country, and that they will do well enough to retain both Houses of Congress. What would lead you to believe in this? Do you still subscribe to the notion of an "Emerging Democratic Majority"?

[I’m not Stu]

Who would win a Republican primary between Adam Laxalt and Sharron Angle?

[MargieCat]

Sisolak just signed a permanent mail-in voting system into law.

That might have just shored up CCM for re-election.

[SnowLabrador]

Sisolak just signed a permanent mail-in voting system into law.

That might have just shored up CCM for re-election.

Another good thing to do would be to reduce polling places in rural areas. Democrats shouldn't unilaterally disarm.

[MT Treasurer]

Sisolak just signed a permanent mail-in voting system into law.

That might have just shored up CCM for re-election.

Right, because as 2020 proved, high turnout undoubtedly always benefits Democrats. Not like Nevada was one of five states to swing R that year either.

[Xing]

Sisolak just signed a permanent mail-in voting system into law.

That might have just shored up CCM for re-election.

Nah, the 2020 Presidential Election is the only recent election we should ever consider when analyzing Nevada, and its massive 0.03% Republican swing is proof that Masto will easily go down if the environment is a mere 2.391% more Republican than it was in 2020, according to the law of universal swing (that gave us Senator Sharron Angle.)

[MargieCat]

Sisolak just signed a permanent mail-in voting system into law.

That might have just shored up CCM for re-election.

Right, because as 2020 proved, high turnout undoubtedly always benefits Democrats. Not like Nevada was one of five states to swing R that year either.

It barely swang right from 2016.

A lot of that was said to be due to COVID shutdowns and wanting to get the hospitality industry going. I also think there was an incumbency bump among Hispanics but can't find the 2016 exit polls for that state.

Either way, mailing ballots out to every household in the state is going to help the democrats. A lot of republicans will probably throw their mail-in ballot in the trash with the intent of showing up in-person at the polls on election day to vote for Laxalt or whoever the GOP puts up. That is, if they don't forget.

[MT Treasurer]

A lot of that was said to be due to COVID shutdowns and wanting to get the hospitality industry going. I also think there was an incumbency bump among Hispanics but can't find the 2016 exit polls for that state.

Either way, mailing ballots out to every household in the state is going to help the democrats. A lot of republicans will probably throw their mail-in ballot in the trash with the intent of showing up in-person at the polls on election day to vote for Laxalt or whoever the GOP puts up. That is, if they don't forget.

And then the remaining, very small slice of Republicans who somehow didn’t forget about the election AND didn’t throw away their ballot will probably forget how to vote... unless their Dear Leader sends them an instruction manual that contains his signature and spells out to them how they should fill out their ballot, they’ll probably become depressed and just give up after an hour or so because they couldn’t figure it out or just didn’t care because Trump's name isn’t on the ballot. And then we’ll get a CCM NUT map that will put even Mark Kelly's and Chris Sununu's NUT maps to shame.

[ElectionsGuy]

Sisolak just signed a permanent mail-in voting system into law.

That might have just shored up CCM for re-election.

Nah, the 2020 Presidential Election is the only recent election we should ever consider when analyzing Nevada, and its massive 0.03% Republican swing is proof that Masto will easily go down if the environment is a mere 2.391% more Republican than it was in 2020, according to the law of universal swing (that gave us Senator Sharron Angle.)

Margin (Margin compared to national)

2020

Pres: D+2 (R+2)
House: D+2 (R+1)

2018

Sen: D+5
House: D+5 (R+3)

2016

Pres: D+2 (D+0)
Sen: D+2
House: D+1 (D+2)

2012

Pres: D+6 (D+2)
Sen: R+1
House: R+0 (R+1)

Nevada voting to the right of the country in both 2018 and 2020, and it trending Republican in the last few midterms, has not pleased people. If Democrats are favored for 2022, we would need a good explanation as to why, such as it will be a bad year for Republicans, or the Democratic candidates are exceptionally good. But we haven't gotten that, just insistence that Nevada will continue voting narrowly Democratic and won't swing with the rest of the country.

[Xing]

Sisolak just signed a permanent mail-in voting system into law.

That might have just shored up CCM for re-election.

Nah, the 2020 Presidential Election is the only recent election we should ever consider when analyzing Nevada, and its massive 0.03% Republican swing is proof that Masto will easily go down if the environment is a mere 2.391% more Republican than it was in 2020, according to the law of universal swing (that gave us Senator Sharron Angle.)

Margin (Margin compared to national)

2020

Pres: D+2 (R+2)
House: D+2 (R+1)

2018

Sen: D+5
House: D+5 (R+3)

2016

Pres: D+2 (D+0)
Sen: D+2
House: D+1 (D+2)

2012

Pres: D+6 (D+2)
Sen: R+1
House: R+0 (R+1)

Nevada voting to the right of the country in both 2018 and 2020, and it trending Republican in the last few midterms, has not pleased people. If Democrats are favored for 2022, we would need a good explanation as to why, such as it will be a bad year for Republicans, or the Democratic candidates are exceptionally good. But we haven't gotten that, just insistence that Nevada will continue voting narrowly Democratic and won't swing with the rest of the country.

I’ve given explanations.

1. It’s mathematically difficult for Republicans to win NV, since the rural counties are very close to maxed out. They either need to win Washoe and keep Clark within 9%, or narrowly lose Washoe and keep Clark within 7%. Neither is impossible, but neither is easy, given that turnout tends to be pretty good.

2. While candidate quality isn’t everything, Republicans don’t have an obvious candidate. Laxalt just barely won in 2014 while Democrats wrote off the state and Sandoval won by a huge margin.

3. There’s reason to believe Masto will do better than Biden did among Latinos.

4. People love pointing out the trend, especially the 2016-2018 trend. However, if we’re going to do that, we have to point out that it actually didn’t trend Republican from 2018-2020. Either way, huge Election Day turnout in the rural areas and an underwhelming performance for Democrats in Clark still wasn’t enough to flip it in 2016 or 2020. This would be like Democrats getting great numbers in Dane and Milwaukee, and improving significantly in WOW and still losing Wisconsin by 2 points. People probably wouldn’t spin that as good for Democrats, even if it represented a Democratic “trend”, relative to a given year.

[MargieCat]

Sisolak just signed a permanent mail-in voting system into law.

That might have just shored up CCM for re-election.

Nah, the 2020 Presidential Election is the only recent election we should ever consider when analyzing Nevada, and its massive 0.03% Republican swing is proof that Masto will easily go down if the environment is a mere 2.391% more Republican than it was in 2020, according to the law of universal swing (that gave us Senator Sharron Angle.)

Margin (Margin compared to national)

2020

Pres: D+2 (R+2)
House: D+2 (R+1)

2018

Sen: D+5
House: D+5 (R+3)

2016

Pres: D+2 (D+0)
Sen: D+2
House: D+1 (D+2)

2012

Pres: D+6 (D+2)
Sen: R+1
House: R+0 (R+1)

Nevada voting to the right of the country in both 2018 and 2020, and it trending Republican in the last few midterms, has not pleased people. If Democrats are favored for 2022, we would need a good explanation as to why, such as it will be a bad year for Republicans, or the Democratic candidates are exceptionally good. But we haven't gotten that, just insistence that Nevada will continue voting narrowly Democratic and won't swing with the rest of the country.

I’ve given explanations.

1. It’s mathematically difficult for Republicans to win NV, since the rural counties are very close to maxed out. They either need to win Washoe and keep Clark within 9%, or narrowly lose Washoe and keep Clark within 7%. Neither is impossible, but neither is easy, given that turnout tends to be pretty good.

2. While candidate quality isn’t everything, Republicans don’t have an obvious candidate. Laxalt just barely won in 2014 while Democrats wrote off the state and Sandoval won by a huge margin.

3. There’s reason to believe Masto will do better than Biden did among Latinos.

4. People love pointing out the trend, especially the 2016-2018 trend. However, if we’re going to do that, we have to point out that it actually didn’t trend Republican from 2018-2020. Either way, huge Election Day turnout in the rural areas and an underwhelming performance for Democrats in Clark still wasn’t enough to flip it in 2016 or 2020. This would be like Democrats getting great numbers in Dane and Milwaukee, and improving significantly in WOW and still losing Wisconsin by 2 points. People probably wouldn’t spin that as good for Democrats, even if it represented a Democratic “trend”, relative to a given year.

These are all valid points.

Everyone on this board loves to look at the popular vote and what type of environment the year is.

For lots of states, that's valid. Especially in the rust belt states.

However, Nevada seems to be immune from waves and is almost static.

Democrats just have to run up the numbers in Clark and Washoe and they win. There's  not some giant rural population like in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin to contend with.

I also think Trump's performance in Vegas was probably pretty strong for a republican. They liked his showmanship.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Vegas loves Trump because Wayne Newton is a Republican and not a Dem and loves TRUMP