Is Biden the next Carter?

[It’s so Joever]

After the anemic job gain numbers and the inflation numbers which were above expectations, it looks like we might be screwed very soon.
I think yes.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You also stated on November 4 that Trump had clearly won and "I'll now accept my accolades" so not exactly that the best record in regards to this stuff.

[Bootes Void]

Carter is fairly underrated in retrospect, otherwise the answer is no

[Horus]

No, he is the Democratic Reagan.

[Pericles]

There must be so many times where Atlas makes massive assumptions from one jobs report and then gets egg on its face. Biden has done what he needs to do so far.

Also, people ignore the most important problem America faces. The Covid pandemic is coming to an end.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There must be so many times where Atlas makes massive assumptions from one jobs report and then gets egg on its face. Biden has done what he needs to do so far.

Also, people ignore the most important problem America faces. The Covid pandemic is coming to an end.

Jobs reports and other random economic data was also why so many here were convinced that Trump was heavily favored.

[PSOL]

Biden is going to win two terms, so no. The only chance we have of coming close to the next “Carter” is with Yang, which is not a bet I’d put money on.

[Calthrina950]

Biden is going to win two terms, so no. The only chance we have of coming close to the next “Carter” is with Yang, which is not a bet I’d put money on.

You believe Biden is going to run for reelection and win?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm quite skeptical of Lichtman's "Keys" as I've expressed many times before but for the believers: there's only two keys that are likely FALSE if Biden runs again: The House numbers one (even if the Democrats hold the House or even gain seats after 2022 it's extremely unlikely they'll hold more than after 2018) and the incumbent charisma one. As for the rest: Incumbent Presidents almost never get serious primary challenges now, Biden isn't the sort to inspire a strong third party candidacy (especially if he faces Trump again), Biden will obviously be an incumbent seeking re-election, Biden isn't the type to have a major scandal (especially considering the rather stiff definition of "major" Lichtman uses), a repeat of 2020 and major unrest is unlikely considering this key has only happened like twice previously since the Great Depression, Biden probably won't have a major foreign policy failure considering how pragmatic his Administration tends to be at this stuff, and with Covid recovery economic growth will almost certainly be better than the average of the last two terms including Trump's Covid-ridden one. And no one quarter of anemic job growth before the pandemic is even over does not contradict that, especially considering how the economy plummeted under Trump really any growth at all is an improvement.

That leads the short term economy, foreign policy success, major policy change and challenger charisma keys. If all of those are FALSE (aka there's a recession in 2024, Biden has no major foreign policy successes, Biden doesn't impact any policy changes that count as "major" assuming he hasn't already and his opponent is charismatic), than the Republicans get their needed six keys as the challengers and win. But they need to run the table, and the charisma key is already FALSE if Trump is the nominee as Lichtman has already counted that against him twice.

Now granted it's not impossible Biden ends up with a scandal or foreign policy failure so those are also "options" but you can kind of see that things have to go somewhere between excellent and perfect for the Republicans to get the conditions they need to win under this test.

That all being said: my take is you should still not put much stock in it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Biden is going to win two terms, so no. The only chance we have of coming close to the next “Carter” is with Yang, which is not a bet I’d put money on.

You believe Biden is going to run for reelection and win?

I don't see why that's an outlandish prediction. And in regards to Biden being "too old" consider that if Biden runs against and is re-elected he'll only be about a year older at the end of his second term as Dianne Feinstein was when she was re-elected for another six-year term.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I also like making broad election predictions 113 days into a presidents term and 42 months before their re-election.

I swear, some folks can't live without dooming.

[Devout Centrist]

Lol

[OSR stands with Israel]

If So, that means DeSantis/Haley will be the next Reagan/Bush

[WD]

I also like making broad election predictions 113 days into a presidents term and 42 months before their re-election.

I swear, some folks can't live without dooming.

Dooming is OP’s lifeforce.

[President Johnson]

Lmao, he's more about to become a Democratic Reagan or Lyndon Johnson 2.0.

Nothing against Jimmy Carter, who's a great man, but never had the experience and political skill of Joe Biden.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Biden is going to win two terms, so no. The only chance we have of coming close to the next “Carter” is with Yang, which is not a bet I’d put money on.

You believe Biden is going to run for reelection and win?

Definitely and more likely than not (although he’s not a lock).

[dead0man]

well he's definitely not going to live for 40 years after his presidency.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

well he's definitely not going to live for 40 years after his presidency.

Nah immortality is coming.

[dead0man]

well he's definitely not going to live for 40 years after his presidency.

Nah immortality is coming.

while I believe there are humans alive who will live for hundreds of years, it ain't going to be the old farts like what Dems and Pubs keep nominating for President.

[vitoNova]

If I was one of those smarty-pants political analyzer types, I would invent a brand new term when world leaders and world events seem to "challenge" left-of-center American presidents in ways that never would have occurred under a Republican administration.

I call it the "Khrushchev Effect", in reference to Nikita Khrushchev waving his finger and talking down to the the newly-elected JFK like a little bitch-boy.  A stunt he never would have pulled on President Nixon had Tricky Dick won that election.  (I'd like to trademark that term please)

Yes.  Biden--just as all Democratic presidents after Truman--seems to be falling victim to the early cycles of the Khrushchev Effect. 

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Maybe worse.

[Inmate Trump]

Trump's term is the more accurate comparison to Carter's.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I think we need to give Biden a bit more time for his leadership style to take effect. It's only May of his first year.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

No, in addition to everything else folks have said, their styles couldn’t be more different.  Carter had a circle of pals from Georgia politics and a couple other close advisors who didn’t know or care how to play with others.  Carter was terminally incapable of working effectively with congressional Democrats and lacked the political instincts to operate successfully at the national level.  He got really lucky in 1976 in hindsight and probably couldn’t have won the nomination or GE w/o basically a perfect storm.  In hindsight, he also really should’ve beaten Reagan in 1980 and blew a very winnable race pretty badly.  

Biden on the other hand, goes out of his way to work with congressional Democrats and takes their concerns very seriously.  Biden has a lot of congressional experience and has been carefully building a hyper-experienced team around him.  Unlike anyone in Carter’s circle, Biden’s CoS is easily one of the most competent and qualified Democratic staffers in the country and it shows.  Aside from the minor misfire with Tanden (which no one really cares about), things have gone largely without a hitch so far.  

The tougher fights are still ahead of us, but if this were Carter, we’d still be consumed by pissing contests with Congress over what the COVID relief bill should look like.  The bill wouldn’t have even been introduced yet and Biden would be implicitly threatening to veto it if it wasn’t exactly what he wanted just on principle.

[Skill and Chance]

For the comparison to work, Trump has to have been something comparable to Nixon.

Well, Nixon tried to go populist but mostly abandoned it after intraparty pushback, so that fits.