Is Biden the next Carter?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No he isn't because Oil is a pollutant, and it was Reagan that starting pollution that started ozone layer to decay, we discussed this during my early childhood days in school.

The reason for Covid and Wildfires is due to pollution

[Storr]

No, since I doubt Joe is going to live for 41 years after leaving office.

[Crumpets]

Relevant:

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1393255543934910466

[GeneralMacArthur]

Market's up 3% since this thread was made.

In Carter's first year in office, the Dow declined 18%.  And a further 3% his second year.  The market also declined 10% in Reagan's first year and 7% in W's first year.

Biden's first year?  Up 12%.  So far that's the best for any president since FDR.

In the last 25 years, the best year for the Dow on record was... 2013, the first year of Obama's second term.  After an election where Romney and the Republicans concern trolled all year about the stagnant recovery.  Even in 2012, the year everyone was hand-wringing about the market, it still went up 7.26%... just beating the 7.25% of 2020, for which everyone is asking us to praise Trump.

Obama and Clinton both saw the market go up in 7/8 years of their presidencies.  W only 4/8.  We've had five recessions in the last 40 years and all of them came during Republican presidencies.

"Republicans are better for the economy" is seriously one of the most outlandish myths in American politics.  And yet the instant a Democrat takes office, everyone's salivating for any negative economic news they can use to reinforce the myth.

[Red Velvet]

Carter was way more pro-peace. So no.

[brucejoel99]

Ahh doomers.

Never change.

I could go on about Biden’s 70%+ approval on COVID handling and how the incoming end of the pandemic is almost guaranteed to make the economy boom even more soon, but you know, you won’t believe anything good until you see it...

Why was the job report so terrible then?

How can you literally start this thread & then somehow think that this was the only reply worth responding to, as opposed to the legitimate points (among others) that Pericles & BRTD had to offer on this specific matter of early-term jobs reports?

[EastwoodS]

No, he is the Democratic Reagan.

Where’s that landslide, sweeping mandate and killer approvals. Or charismatic support?

[EastwoodS]

Don’t be silly, Obama was their Reagan and Biden is their HW.

[freepcrusher]

if you're an optimist you could say Biden is like Gerald Ford - picking up the pieces of a country that had absorbed a lot of changes in a short period of time.

If you're a pessimist you could say Biden is James Buchanan.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Ahh doomers.

Never change.

I could go on about Biden’s 70%+ approval on COVID handling and how the incoming end of the pandemic is almost guaranteed to make the economy boom even more soon, but you know, you won’t believe anything good until you see it...

Why was the job report so terrible then?

How can you literally start this thread & then somehow think that this was the only reply worth responding to, as opposed to the legitimate points (among others) that Pericles & BRTD had to offer on this specific matter of early-term jobs reports?

"Doomer":Forumlurker :: "Chicken":Marty McFly

[pbrower2a]

Inflation is back, which is something in common between Carter and Biden. Biden also barely got elected in the Electoral College. But here are some differences:

1. Carter tried to bring his Georgia-style politics into America as a whole. Carter was a good governor in Georgia, and he made major reforms that he thought would be good for America as a whole. Congress rejected them. Maybe we would be better off had those reforms been enacted. Zero-based budgeting and sunset legislation that ensure economy in government and that spending projects newly enacted be temporary? Those might be good ideas, but nobody has since revived those. Political realities are what they are.

2. If Carter was self-righteous opposition to the Watergate scandal, then that wore off quickly. Biden in contrast has plenty of Trump-era scandals awaiting prosecution, and he is president as COVID-19 abates in America. Once and for all with COVID-19? Probably not, as roughly 43% or Republicans and 26% of white people said in a recent poll that they were not going to get inoculated. But I will continue with that story as that is a distraction. People duly inoculated are not going to contract and either die or get organ damage from COVID-19. Life will go back to normal*.

Watergate didn't kill anyone. COVID-19 has already killed nearly 600,000 people. That is nearly 600,000 deaths, more the result of incompetence and perverse values (including stupidity and myopic greed) than of heroism.

Joe Biden is more understated about the Michigan plot and the January 6 Putsch... and the Michigan plot is a portent of the Putsch.  He wisely lets the legal system do its work. The first convictions (so far, mostly plea bargains) on the Michigan plot suggest what awaits those doing the worst in the Capitol insurrection.

3. Recovery from COVID-19 seems to manifest itself in real improvement in real wages. Price instability is a certainty in any economic transition, including the economic recovery from a war-like crisis. Super-cheap labor is no longer so much a part of the American economy, which shows in the prices of restaurant meals following COVID-19.   

4. To be sure international calamities are possible. You will need to call this one. The Shah of Iran seemed to have no problems in 1977. In two years he would be driven out in an anti-American revolution, and in three years there would be a fanatically anti-American regime in Iran.

5. Most significantly, cultural change worked to the detriment of Carter. He depended upon ancestral support of many white Southerners who still appreciated the huge improvements in their lives during the New Deal. Figure that the Southerners who knew the difference between the post-Civil War era and the New Deal Era were over fifty, Carter depended upon an aging base of support. Already the cultural trend toward the Religious Right was hitting Southern states first, and that would ensure that the only former Confederate state that Carter could win in 1980 would be Georgia -- after winning all former Confederate states except Virginia in 1976.

Do you see that happening to Joe Biden in the next four years? America had seen nothing like that since either the mass immigration of Irish Catholics in the middle of the 19th century or just before that the religious activity of the "Burnt-Over District" in what was then the American West  soon after the War of 1812. Carter may have been a Southern Baptist, but after the conversion of huge numbers of Presbyterians to Southern Baptists tailored to the social and political values of the converts, Carter was the "wrong" sort of Southern Baptist.

*Culpability will almost certainly be on Donald Trump, who trivialized and misrepresented the dangers of COVID-19... in contrast to almost all Democratic pols. Trump will not get redemption for this.

Even worse, we may not be over the COVID-19 mess. About 43% of Republicans said that they were not going to get inoculated. Such people are anti-mask, and they are most likely to spread any final surges of COVID-19 among themselves. The death toll seems to be hovering around 600K. Such will hurt their numbers in subsequent elections. Democrats have heavily gotten inoculated.

This may be enough to decide some swing states in 2024 -- in favor of Democrats.     
     

[Sir Mohamed]

Nah, he's politically much more skilled than Carter, who came in without any DC experience and was struggling to work even with congressional Dems. Carter also didn't have foreign policy experience, contrary to Biden.

IF Biden runs for a 2nd term and actually loses, he'd be more like HW Bush. VP and (in)direct successor to a polarizing prez that's popular in his own party who lacks his former bosses charisma, but is more experienced. Like HW, Biden came in with a lot of foreign policy credentials and who benefited from the many connections to skilled personell of the previous admin he served in. Like HW, a struggling economy and hostile congress would most likely cost him reelection and not any personal scandal.

As for historical parallels, Biden is closest to Johnson. Both were the experienced VPs to charismatic presidents whom they succeeded. Like Johnson for Kennedy, Biden is getting the stuff done his former boss Obama was expected to do, but couldn't for various reasons, mostly beyond his control. Only difference will be that Biden won't have a foreign policy blunder like Vietnam. And Biden for sure is a kinder persona than Johnson, who was a pretty rough dude.

Biden and Reagan also have things in common, as several posters pointed out, though I'm not sure he'll be able to change the economic consensus the way Reagan did. As much as I hate to say it; Biden doesn't have the congressional majorities to do so. He'll most likely just have this 2 year window to do anything legislatively.

[Mr. Smith]

Imagine if HW had been propped up and not disparaged after the NH Primary in a concerted effort to take down Reagan. Imagine if that NH win was given the same respect as Nevada 2020.

The true Reagan was there and the Nevada win, the statements were not given the proper "I'm paying for this mic" respect that they deserved. Instead Matthews and the rest of the so-called liberal media jumped on it.

Oh sure, HW defeating Carter would've still been the most conservative result since 1924, but it would never have become the cancerous new realignment either.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Inflation is back, which is something in common between Carter and Biden. Biden also barely got elected in the Electoral College. But here are some differences:

Inflation is always present.  There is inflation every year as a natural outcome of economic expansion.

The inflation this last cycle was higher than expected, due to COVID.  None of it was due to government action or inaction.

[President Johnson]

No, he is the Democratic Reagan.

Where’s that landslide, sweeping mandate and killer approvals. Or charismatic support?

Well, Joe Biden won a higher share of the popular vote than Reagan in 1980. Actually the highest of any challenger since 1932. The days of double digit and 400+ electoral votes landslides are over.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Inflation is back, which is something in common between Carter and Biden. Biden also barely got elected in the Electoral College. But here are some differences:

Inflation is always present.  There is inflation every year as a natural outcome of economic expansion.

The inflation this last cycle was higher than expected, due to COVID.  None of it was due to government action or inaction.

Sending everyone $1,400 checks, putting $350 billion into state & local governments, and giving people an additional $300 in unemployment checks without raising any taxes obviously contributes to inflation. There would have been inflation anyways, but not as much as we're seeing now.

[Motorcity]

Inflation is back, which is something in common between Carter and Biden. Biden also barely got elected in the Electoral College. But here are some differences:

Inflation is always present.  There is inflation every year as a natural outcome of economic expansion.

The inflation this last cycle was higher than expected, due to COVID.  None of it was due to government action or inaction.

Sending everyone $1,400 checks, putting $350 billion into state & local governments, and giving people an additional $300 in unemployment checks without raising any taxes obviously contributes to inflation. There would have been inflation anyways, but not as much as we're seeing now.

Some inflation was inevitable. Industry was only at half production because millions were staying at home. The ARP only hasten the reopening of the economy so we are seeing the inflation now instead of June

Once the pipelines pump more gas and mills process more trees, we’ll see things return to normal ish. The used card and computer chips will take a little longer but we’re working on it. Chill

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

No silly, he's the next Reagan!

[RosettaStoned]

I see him serving less than one term; similar to Ford.

[EastwoodS]

No silly, he's the next Reagan!

I promise you, no.

[Virginiá]

In what ways? Are we talking about political realignments or other attributes? I find it hard to see how the next Republican is some Reagan figure. Where would all this latent Republican support come from? People under age 40 - 45 are heavily Dem-leaning and generally much less ideologically friendly for the GOP. It's a vastly different situation than what Republicans faced in the 70s and 80s, and the country is far too politically polarized to see a sharp reversal like that, in my opinion.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No silly, he's the next Reagan!

Reagan was the one that deregulated carbon emissions from Corporations and started heavy fracking to begin with, the Green house effect exacerbated under Reagan. That's why he picked Bushes whom were ENRON oil men we would have been better off with Teddy Kennedy or George Romney Sr as Prez

[roxas11]

After the anemic job gain numbers and the inflation numbers which were above expectations, it looks like we might be screwed very soon.
I think yes.

You are deluding yourself if you honestly believe that the those job numbers are going to stay anemic once everything is reopen again.

Make no mistake, if covid continues to decline in the US that alone will have a massive impact on future jobs numbers and on the economy Especially if this happens......



The GOP is crazy if they think the current ecomeny is somehow a reflection of what the economy will look like by November 2022

Finally, most economists agree, that unlike the Carter years, this current inflation wil be temporary and short lived.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Honestly, if he parallels any one-term President right now, it might be GHWB.

[dw93]

It's too early to tell, but I doubt he will be. I think time will prove that Trump was the closest post 1980 analog to Carter. Both were political oddities that barely won their respective elections and both saw crisis  hit at the end of their term, and while the country did initially rally behind them early in said times of crisis, both eventually would lose support as the crisis dragged on. The only things that saved Trump from suffering a landslide loss akin to Carter's are polarization and the fact that Biden wasn't an exceptional challenger the way FDR, Reagan, and Clinton were when they defeated their respective incumbent opponents.

Hell, in some ways George W. Bush (both born again christians who were motivated by their faith) and Obama (both were naive when it came to how Washington worked) had more in common with Carter than Biden.