French presidential election, 2022

[parochial boy]

Rennes seems to be the first big city in, 84-16 in favour of Macron, which is about a 4% swing from 2017. A few of the middle-large ones like Besançon, Annecy and Orléans have all moved about 6-7 points. So I guess that is looking like the general trend for the provincial cities.

[jaichind]

Exit polls show Le Pen did better with youth and women voters.

[Oryxslayer]

Rennes seems to be the first big city in, 84-16 in favour of Macron, which is about a 4% swing from 2017. A few of the middle-large ones like Besançon, Annecy and Orléans have all moved about 6-7 points. So I guess that is looking like the general trend for the provincial cities.

10% valid vote gap between it and the immediate suburbs. Same with Orleans, Brest, Les Mans, Poitiers, etc. Melenchon voters making themselves known.

[LAB-LIB]

What do you guys think a Melenchon vs Le Pen runoff would have looked like?

[Coldstream]

What do you guys think a Melenchon vs Le Pen runoff would have looked like?

Le Pen wins narrowly on even lower turnout. People talk about how Macron had no appeal to Melenchon supporters so they stayed home, the reverse is even more true about Melenchon to Macron supporters - and he would make even less of an effort to win them over than Macron has.

[Zinneke]

What do you guys think a Melenchon vs Le Pen runoff would have looked like?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why is Brittany such a stronghold for Macron?

The old Catholic regions like Brittany (but also nearby regions in the broader Grand Ouest) morphed into a center-left political leaning around the turn of the century. For this areas, "openness" and aversion to extremism are pretty important elements of their identity, and they were really activated in the past few years.

[Frodo]

Assuming that this is Marine Le Pen's last roll of the dice, I suppose that by the 2027 election, her niece Marion Maréchal will be the new standard bearer of the National Rally. 

[Oryxslayer]

Rennes seems to be the first big city in, 84-16 in favour of Macron, which is about a 4% swing from 2017. A few of the middle-large ones like Besançon, Annecy and Orléans have all moved about 6-7 points. So I guess that is looking like the general trend for the provincial cities.

10% valid vote gap between it and the immediate suburbs. Same with Orleans, Brest, Les Mans, Poitiers, etc. Melenchon voters making themselves known.

In a similar vein, many of the S-S-D communes that are reporting have valid turnout percentages around 50%. Le Pen is also doing not horribly here, especially when compared to the overall western Paris region, though a lot of that can probably be blamed on the lower valid turnout making the valid pool less representative of the whole.

[Coldstream]

Assuming that this is Marine Le Pen's last roll of the dice, I suppose that by the 2027 election, her niece Marion Maréchal will be the new standard bearer of the National Rally. 

She’s no longer in the party, she joined Zemmour at the start of the year.

[Frodo]

Assuming that this is Marine Le Pen's last roll of the dice, I suppose that by the 2027 election, her niece Marion Maréchal will be the new standard bearer of the National Rally. 

She’s no longer in the party, she joined Zemmour at the start of the year.

Things change, she could always rejoin them once her aunt is no longer in the picture. 

[Хahar 🤔]

LR and PS are in meltdown, which may leave dozens of seats on the table for LREM, and no one has ever managed to make the losers' revenge thing work in the legislatives on the scale needed to deprive Macron of a majority under these conditions. Le Pen's core demographic is also not famous for flocking to the polls at low-turnout elections. Can we at least try not to get distracted by fantasies and shiny one-off poll results? The odds are on LREM's side here.

Crucial thing to remember here is that LR-UDI still won 130 seats last time and they're in absolute pieces now, as broken as the PS. That alone opens up a lot of room for EN MARCHE to carry on marching forwards, even if they lose ground elsewhere.

Considering that French politicians are known neither for ideological commitment or personal loyalty, there's a lot of room for local grandees from the two dead major parties to defect to Macron. Considering the remarkably low quality of the 2017 Macron legislative intake, it would be easy (and correct) for established politicians from both sides to conclude that their affiliation with a dead brand is the only thing keeping them from doing better.

Why is Brittany such a stronghold for Macron?

The past major presidential candidate whom Macron most closely resembles is Giscard, who was similarly strong in that part of the country. That observant Catholics were an extremely strong Macron demographic might shed some light on the sort of people likely to support him.

[Coldstream]

Assuming that this is Marine Le Pen's last roll of the dice, I suppose that by the 2027 election, her niece Marion Maréchal will be the new standard bearer of the National Rally. 

She’s no longer in the party, she joined Zemmour at the start of the year.

Things change, she could always rejoin them once her aunt is no longer in the picture. 

Maybe, but it seems unlikely Marine Le Pen (who shafted her own father) would stand down if she thought there was the slightest chance that her treacherous niece would take over - and either get the glory of being president or ruin all of Marine’s hard work of detoxifying the party.

[Frodo]

Assuming that this is Marine Le Pen's last roll of the dice, I suppose that by the 2027 election, her niece Marion Maréchal will be the new standard bearer of the National Rally.  

She’s no longer in the party, she joined Zemmour at the start of the year.

Things change, she could always rejoin them once her aunt is no longer in the picture.  

Maybe, but it seems unlikely Marine Le Pen (who shafted her own father) would stand down if she thought there was the slightest chance that her treacherous niece would take over - and either get the glory of being president or ruin all of Marine’s hard work of detoxifying the party.

Unless her party pushes her out as a three-time (or six, if you want to separate the election rounds) loser.  

[SunSt0rm]

Its interesting to see that in some communes in which Zemmour did (relatively) great, Le Pen is getting fewer voters than Le Pen + Zemmour combined.

[vileplume]

It seems that the Mélenchon strongholds in Overseas France have mostly swung massively behind Le Pen. Why do these places dislike Macron so much? Has he done something to specifically annoy them or are they just anti-establishment/#populist hotbeds in general?

[jaichind]

Its interesting to see that in some communes in which Zemmour did (relatively) great, Le Pen is getting fewer voters than Le Pen + Zemmour combined.

I can understand that.  Some of Zemmour's voters are fairly economically right-wing and for sure would vote Macron over Le Pen for economic reasons.  If I voted in France I would have most likely voted Zemmour first round and depending on if I was focused on economic or cultural issues could have easily voted Marcon second round.

[parochial boy]

Rennes seems to be the first big city in, 84-16 in favour of Macron, which is about a 4% swing from 2017. A few of the middle-large ones like Besançon, Annecy and Orléans have all moved about 6-7 points. So I guess that is looking like the general trend for the provincial cities.

10% valid vote gap between it and the immediate suburbs. Same with Orleans, Brest, Les Mans, Poitiers, etc. Melenchon voters making themselves known.

In a similar vein, many of the S-S-D communes that are reporting have valid turnout percentages around 50%. Le Pen is also doing not horribly here, especially when compared to the overall western Paris region, though a lot of that can probably be blamed on the lower valid turnout making the valid pool less representative of the whole.

Yeah, around Rennes and Nantes there is a noticeable gap between - say swanky Cesson-Sévigné and rather less swanky St-Jacques-de-La-Lande near Rennes; or between the upmarket norther suburbs of Orvault and Sautron to the North and the working class down-Loire areas to the West of Nantes. (contrast that to, say, Lyon where the rich and poor suburbs are voting Macron to more or less the same degree, with Lyon having a much larger ethnic minority population than either of the two Breton cities)

The 9-3 results are showing a pretty classic but marked distinction between the very urbanised, tower block sububrs in the West and the more "pavillonnaire" individual-homes-not-as-poor-but-still-not-rich communes further east.

Why is Brittany such a stronghold for Macron?

In addition to points others have made; a point that has been made is that the "zombie-catholicism" of Brittany means that it has retained social links and structures and therefore a sense of social and collective well being and solidarity that leaves it more resistant to the appeal of the far right. It is also sort of the epicentre of "Happy France" in so far as being relatively prosperous, fairly dynamic economically (though with some big distinctions across the region - parts of it aren't doing well at ll) - it was never especially industrial, so not much industrial decline to really happen. Plus some local factors like rich retirees migrating to the (especially Morbihan) coast, or the factor of the very studenty and progressive city of Rennes.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It seems that the Mélenchon strongholds in Overseas France have mostly swung massively behind Le Pen. Why do these places dislike Macron so much? Has he done something to specifically annoy them or are they just anti-establishment/#populist hotbeds in general?

Bad break up?

[Antonio the Sixth]

90% counted, Macron at 56.5%. To get to the projections, he'd have to win what's left with 70-75%. Which seems fairly plausible actually.

[NOVA Green]

So no results from the city of Marseilles yet or am I just missing something in the links posted by others for official French Presidential Election results from Round II?

[Mike88]

90% counted, Macron at 56.5%. To get to the projections, he'd have to win what's left with 70-75%. Which seems fairly plausible actually.

Yeah, he's currently at 57.4% with not a lot in yet from Marseille and with some of Paris yet to be reported. Plus, a lot of overseas votes are still being counted and Macron is winning by a 85-15% margin.

[wbrocks67]

Exit polls show Le Pen did better with youth and women voters.

This is not true - I definitely saw an exit poll that had Macron winning 18-24 year olds 61/39.

[jaichind]

Exit polls show Le Pen did better with youth and women voters.

This is not true - I definitely saw an exit poll that had Macron winning 18-24 year olds 61/39.

Sorry when I said "did better" I mean in a relative sense.  That Le Pen did better with the youth relative to older voters.  Same with gender.  Le Pen did better with women voters relative to male voters.

[Pericles]

This is a pretty good election result. It's nice to see that the far-right didn't come close to victory. Macron also isn't awful, especially compared to the rest of the field. The French party system is still very unstable so every side has some hope next time.