Sweden 2006

[Michael Z]

A slim but welcome result

A slim and unwelcome result.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of the sub-national breakdowns given on val.se (not entirely sure what they are...) the SAP is the leading party in all but Skane lans sodra (that's Skane South, right?), and the two around Stockholm (not checked for left v right...).

SAP's best is Norrbottens (51.7%), worst is Stockholms kommun (23.3%)
MP's best is Stockholms lan (38.3%), worst is Norrbottens (13.3%)
C's best is Gotlands (19.6%), worst is Malmo (2.9%)
FP's best is Goteborgs (10.2%), worst is Jamtlands (4.1%)
KD's best is Jonkopings (16.1%), worst is Malmo (3.5%)
V's best is Norbottens (10.5%), worst is Skane lans vastra (Skane West, right?) with 3.3%
MP's best is Stockholms kommun (9.3%), worst is Skane lans norra ach ostra (Skane North and East, right?) with 3.3%

[Jens]

I'm just going to check who has the last mandates to see what the changes are of any significant change

Here are the divisors:

M:   96,4202
C:   29,3183
FP:  27,7544
KD: 24,4844
S: 130,3889
V:   21,5756
MP: 19,0583

This means that it is likely that KD might loose a mandate to S in the fine count, but it is even more likely that it is M that gains that last mandate

[Jens]

Of the sub-national breakdowns given on val.se (not entirely sure what they are...) the SAP is the leading party in all but Skane lans sodra (that's Skane South, right?), and the two around Stockholm (not checked for left v right...).

SAP's best is Norrbottens (51.7%), worst is Stockholms kommun (23.3%)
M's best is Stockholms lan (38.3%), worst is Norrbottens (13.3%)
C's best is Gotlands (19.6%), worst is Malmo (2.9%)
FP's best is Goteborgs (10.2%), worst is Jamtlands (4.1%)
KD's best is Jonkopings (16.1%), worst is Malmo (3.5%)
V's best is Norbottens (10.5%), worst is Skane lans vastra (Skane West, right?) with 3.3%
MP's best is Stockholms kommun (9.3%), worst is Skane lans norra ach ostra (Skane North and East, right?) with 3.3%

Your are right, Södra = South, Västra = West, Nordra = North and Östra East.
I have always found the fact that the cities in Sweden are to the right and the countryside to the left rather strange. It is the exact opposite of Denmark

[Gustaf]

Right: 178 Seats
Left: 171 Seats

Is a majority that small managable in Sweden? Serious question addressed to literally anyone that might know; it certainly wouldn't be here.

Oh yes, it is easily managable. There are no personal mandates here, so no one goes against the party line, ever. Uprisings of the sort you have in England never occur. After the 1979 election the centre-right ruled with 175 v 174.

This is a great day for Swedish democracy, finally having a change of power. Latest distribution of seats:

S: 130 (144)
V: 22 (30)
MP: 19 (17)
Total: 171 (191)
 
M: 97 (55)
C: 29 (22)
FP: 28 (48)
KD: 24 (33)
TOtal: 179 (158)

Oh, and in GOtland M took the second seat. I'm sorry Aethelberth.

[Gustaf]

I'm just going to check who has the last mandates to see what the changes are of any significant change

Here are the divisors:

M:   96,4202
C:   29,3183
FP:  27,7544
KD: 24,4844
S: 130,3889
V:   21,5756
MP: 19,0583

This means that it is likely that KD might loose a mandate to S in the fine count, but it is even more likely that it is M that gains that last mandate

If it's really close the over-seas vote usually tilts to M. Regionally I haven't seen any major surprises so far. It's all as I expected.

[Harry Hayfield]

With all districts now declared, the results are: (Figures from EuroNews)

Coalition Groupings
Social Democrats and Allies 46.2% winning 171 seats
Centre Right Opposition Alliance 48.1% winning 178 seats

[Harry Hayfield]

Shares by party and change on 2002

Social Democrats 35.2% (-4.7%)
Centre Right 26.1% (+10.8%)
Centre Party 7.9% (+1.7%)
Liberal People's Party 7.5% (-5.9%)
Christian Democrats 6.6% (-2.6%)
Left Party 5.8% (-2.6%)
Green Party 5.2% (+0.5%)
Others 5.7% (+2.6%)

[Harry Hayfield]

And the reaction from the Swedish financial markets?

The OMX All Share Index closed at 330.58 and is currently trading at 333.40, an increase of 2.82 points or 0.85%

As for the Swedish Korna:

SK vs €: Friday close: 0.10855 Current Trade: 0.1088 (+0.00025 +0.23%)
SK vs $: Friday close: 0.1374 Current Trade: 0.1379 (+0.0005 +0.36%)
SK vs £: Friday close: 0.07308 Current Trade: 0.07322 (+0.00014 +0.19%)

[minionofmidas]

Where can I get detailed results?

This official site]http://www.val.se/val/val2006/slutlig/R/rike/delar.html]This official site has a complete result, but constituency results for only some places (as yet?), and apparently no data on no. of MPs to be elected by constituency.

[Gustaf]

To clarify: the final results from the election night count is over and can be seen here: http://www.val.se/val/val2006/valnatt/R/rike/roster.html

However, over-seas ballots as well as those ballot cast in the "wrong" booths on election day (basically mail-vote) is being included now. This will lead to the actual final result and the count will also show exact results for minor parties as well as the result of the personal votes for individual candidates (which candidates get the seats the parties have recieved). This process is being monitored here: http://www.val.se/val/val2006/slutlig/R/rike/roster.html

The Centre Party did indeed increase mostly in urban and suburban areas this time (as opposed to 2002 when they gained only in rural areas). Becoming the 3rd biggest party and establishing the foundations of a national party are major improvements for them.

I would also like to mention that S recieved less than 20% of the vote in Nacka, much to my enjoyment. M will now be able to rule Nacka without having to rely on FP.

In Sundbyberg, the most denesely populated municipality in Sweden, the centre-right won the majority for the first time in Swedish political history.

On a sadder note, xenophobic SD (Sweden-Democrats) did their best result ever, recieving 22% of the vote in Landskrona and about 2% nationally.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

On a sadder note, xenophobic SD (Sweden-Democrats) did their best result ever, recieving 22% of the vote in Landskrona and about 2% nationally.

  Does that mean that the SD will be in Parliament (having broken the 12% threshold in Landskrona or is Landskrona not one of the election districts but something else?

[Jens]

On a sadder note, xenophobic SD (Sweden-Democrats) did their best result ever, recieving 22% of the vote in Landskrona and about 2% nationally.

  Does that mean that the SD will be in Parliament (having broken the 12% threshold in Landskrona or is Landskrona not one of the election districts but something else?

the 12 % was in the municipal election. In general SD got a good regional election, but my guess is that the rather high tresshold is moving quite some "Don't want to waste"-votes from parties like Feministic Initiative, June List and Sweden Democrats, thus giving SD a worser national result

[M]

To clarify: the final results from the election night count is over and can be seen here: http://www.val.se/val/val2006/valnatt/R/rike/roster.html
  M will now be able to rule Nacka without having to rely on FP.

Hurrah! As my first official act, I mandate that all Nackans must wear T-shirt that say "M is the man" at all times. As my second act, I order that homework be abolished and ice cream and ketchup recognized as major food groups.

[Gustaf]

On a sadder note, xenophobic SD (Sweden-Democrats) did their best result ever, recieving 22% of the vote in Landskrona and about 2% nationally.

  Does that mean that the SD will be in Parliament (having broken the 12% threshold in Landskrona or is Landskrona not one of the election districts but something else?

the 12 % was in the municipal election. In general SD got a good regional election, but my guess is that the rather high tresshold is moving quite some "Don't want to waste"-votes from parties like Feministic Initiative, June List and Sweden Democrats, thus giving SD a worser national result

They didn't really get close to breaking a regional threshold, I don't think. However, they're quite likely to manage it the next time (or, for that matter, the national one). And yes, generally all minor parties suffered from the extreme attention the media gave to the struggle for power between the two blocs.

And lol @ M. Good luck with your rule.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Would someone who knows Swedish care to tell me what the Norrbottens Sjukvårdsparti is and of what significance is it that they got 15.5% of the vote in Norrbottens (down from 23.2% in 2002).  From the name, I assume they are some local issue party, but what issue?

[Tender Branson]

Would someone who knows Swedish care to tell me what the Norrbottens Sjukvårdsparti is and of what significance is it that they got 15.5% of the vote in Norrbottens (down from 23.2% in 2002).  From the name, I assume they are some local issue party, but what issue?

Sounds like Security Party, but I don´t know any Swedish, so lets wait

[Gustaf]

Would someone who knows Swedish care to tell me what the Norrbottens Sjukvårdsparti is and of what significance is it that they got 15.5% of the vote in Norrbottens (down from 23.2% in 2002).  From the name, I assume they are some local issue party, but what issue?

Sounds like Security Party, but I don´t know any Swedish, so lets wait

I guess the person who knows Swedish would be me.

Sjukvård means health care. Sjukvårdspartiet is the "Health Care party" and their basic focus is to retain local hospitals that the SAP has been shutting down in local areas. They're quite populist and helped over-throw the SAP in many traditional rural strongholds. They also ran for the Riksdag in this general election but failed miserably. Basically, I think they lost votes because like many populist parties they didn't deliver what people had expected of them.

They were also hurt by a general pro-SAP trend in the rural north. It is actually quite interesting to note, the SAP in fact gained votes in the rural north, but lost the election due to their heavy losses and urban and suburban areas, in particular the latter and in particular around Stockholm.

[Gustaf]

The final count, btw, is indicating that the Sweden Democrats did a lot better than the exit polls indicated. It seems like they recieved almost 3% of the vote, which puts them in an excellent position for the 2010 elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They were also hurt by a general pro-SAP trend in the rural north. It is actually quite interesting to note, the SAP in fact gained votes in the rural north, but lost the election due to their heavy losses and urban and suburban areas, in particular the latter and in particular around Stockholm.

Yeah, I noticed that as well. Any reason for the growth in polarisation?

[Gustaf]

They were also hurt by a general pro-SAP trend in the rural north. It is actually quite interesting to note, the SAP in fact gained votes in the rural north, but lost the election due to their heavy losses and urban and suburban areas, in particular the latter and in particular around Stockholm.

Yeah, I noticed that as well. Any reason for the growth in polarisation?

Honestly, I'm not sure, election analysis (especially geographic ones) are not a strong side of Swedish journalists, scientists, etc. I haven't seen anyone refer to this.

If I'm to wager a guess, then maybe it has to do with local trends. The SAP over-performed in the Stockholm area (and urban areas in general) in 2002 and there was the traditional anti-incumbency wave occurring there. Stockholm for instance hsa changed hands 6 elections in a row. Many of the suburbs have similar records. In Norrland, the SAP lost a LOT of ground in 1998, when core SAP voters abandoned them, mostly for V. It seems like they recovered, back to traditional strength. Another factor could be the return of C as a national party, they gained seats in the urban assemblies for the first time in a decade.

So, to sum up, the election was actually reverting to traditional patterns, but with a general swing to the right. In fact, the local numbers are about what I would expect given the national numbers.

EDIT: I should also mention that while M aimed for the middle-ground, the SAP went LEFTWARDS trying to rally the base. So that might help explain while M gained in a lot of historical swing areas while the SAP gained in their traditional strongholds.

[afleitch]

What about voting by age? Who made gains, if any in the youth vote?

[minionofmidas]

Didn't check at the municipality level, but at the constituency level Norrbotten was the only place SD gained. And that seems to be due to a collapse in the "other" vote - probably the collapse of that party mentioned a couple of posts ago by Ernest? (2002, Norrbotten had the highest other vote of all, 10.0%. Now, it's below the national average at 5.6%, while the other vote increased everywhere else.)

[Gustaf]

Didn't check at the municipality level, but at the constituency level Norrbotten was the only place SD gained. And that seems to be due to a collapse in the "other" vote - probably the collapse of that party mentioned a couple of posts ago by Ernest? (2002, Norrbotten had the highest other vote of all, 10.0%. Now, it's below the national average at 5.6%, while the other vote increased everywhere else.)

You mean SAP when you say SD right?
In 2002 Norrbottenspartiet was formed, trying to get in regionally and came fairly close to succeeding. This time there was no such effort and hence the SAP gained. Outside of Norrbotten all the other parties running compiled a lot of votes together.

What about voting by age? Who made gains, if any in the youth vote?

The youth vote split evenly, 47-46 to the left I think. The SAP did badly as usual, but even worse than usual I think. The Greens gained and V lost quite a bit. M was the big winner, they became the biggest party among youths. KD did badly as usual, FP did pretty badly which is a bit unusual, while C improved considerably.

[Tender Branson]

sjukvård  = sick ward (Germanic languages are easy)

I thought: sjukvård = Sicherheit (german for security) but sick ward is definitely a better descripition for health care