Sweden 2006

[Gustaf]

One month to go now and a new poll came out today by TEMO, showing the Social Democrats (SAP) losing 2% and the Conservatives (M) gaining a similar amount:

SAP: 34.8%
M:     28.6%
FP:    10.2%
MP:    5.8%
C:      5.7%
KD:    5.6%
V:      4.7%

Red-Green Bloc (S+V+MP): 45.2%
Blue Bloc (M+FP+C+KD):     50.1%

A Sifo poll a week or so back confirms this result. Time might actually be running out for the Social Democrats.

[Tender Branson]

How long have the Social Democrats been in the government in Sweden ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How long have the Social Democrats been in the government in Sweden ?

Since 1994 IIRC.

[Jens]

How long have the Social Democrats been in the government in Sweden ?

Since 1994 IIRC.

1920, 1921 - 1923, 1924 - 1926, 1932 - 1936 june, 1936 september -1976, 1982 - 1991, 1994 -

Since 1920 SAP has only been out of government in 17 years!

[Colin]

How long have the Social Democrats been in the government in Sweden ?

Since 1994 IIRC.

1920, 1921 - 1923, 1924 - 1926, 1932 - 1936 june, 1936 september -1976, 1982 - 1991, 1994 -

Since 1920 SAP has only been out of government in 17 years!

Well then I believe its high time that Sweden became more competitive.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How long have the Social Democrats been in the government in Sweden ?

Since 1994 IIRC.

1920, 1921 - 1923, 1924 - 1926, 1932 - 1936 june, 1936 september -1976, 1982 - 1991, 1994 -

Since 1920 SAP has only been out of government in 17 years!

Well then I believe its high time that Sweden became more competitive.

Traditionally it does for a while after a long period of Social Democrat rule...  the new coalition is then traditionally derailed by various events (not all their fault) and is thrown out at the next election.

[Gustaf]

How long have the Social Democrats been in the government in Sweden ?

Since 1994 IIRC.

1920, 1921 - 1923, 1924 - 1926, 1932 - 1936 june, 1936 september -1976, 1982 - 1991, 1994 -

Since 1920 SAP has only been out of government in 17 years!

Well then I believe its high time that Sweden became more competitive.

Traditionally it does for a while after a long period of Social Democrat rule...  the new coalition is then traditionally derailed by various events (not all their fault) and is thrown out at the next election.

Traditionally...it's happened twice.

This really ought to be it. Today's poll shows the Left below the 4%-threshold required for representation. If that happens the SAP is toast. I don't think it will though. Several polls indicate the Centre-Right gaining now, with leads as large as 7%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Traditionally...it's happened twice. [/.quote]

Twice is more than enough for something to be traditional

[Gustaf]

I think the deciding point of the election was when the leader of the opposition, Conservative party leader Fredrik Reinfeldt, declared that he would top every promise of extra money made by the social democrats. This rendered the traditional SAP election strategy of bombarding key voter groups with promises of extra benefits useless. As a result, they're not really promising anything.

[Colin]

Who do you vote for Gustaf? Moderaterna or Liberal People's Party or something else?

[Gustaf]

Who do you vote for Gustaf? Moderaterna or Liberal People's Party or something else?

I haven't actually voted in a general election yet, but I could probably vote for any of the Centre-Right parties (and actually even the Greens, though not in this election). In this particular election I'm gonna vote for Junilistan, for both personal and political reasons.

If anyone is interested I could do a brief summary of the major parties, because they're not all what you would think them to be (especially the People's Party... )

[Colin]

Who do you vote for Gustaf? Moderaterna or Liberal People's Party or something else?

I haven't actually voted in a general election yet, but I could probably vote for any of the Centre-Right parties (and actually even the Greens, though not in this election). In this particular election I'm gonna vote for Junilistan, for both personal and political reasons.

If anyone is interested I could do a brief summary of the major parties, because they're not all what you would think them to be (especially the People's Party... )

Go ahead. I'm always interested in foreign political parties. Be my guest.

[Gustaf]

Who do you vote for Gustaf? Moderaterna or Liberal People's Party or something else?

I haven't actually voted in a general election yet, but I could probably vote for any of the Centre-Right parties (and actually even the Greens, though not in this election). In this particular election I'm gonna vote for Junilistan, for both personal and political reasons.

If anyone is interested I could do a brief summary of the major parties, because they're not all what you would think them to be (especially the People's Party... )

Go ahead. I'm always interested in foreign political parties. Be my guest.

Ok.

SAP - Socialdemokratiska Arbetarpartiet (Social Democratic Worker's Party), 2002 Election result 39.9%, current polling about 35%. The oldest party in Sweden (120 years or so). It is a typical centre-left reformed socialist party. In Sweden though the link between the blue-collar trade unions and the SAP is very, very strong (as in the Chairman of LO, the Swedish AFL-CIO, is a member of the SAP Executive Committee). Since they're so big they're a major presence pretty much everywhere but their traditional strongholds lie in the Northern rural areas where there are many old mining communities and such. In order to remain competitive they have been forced to break into the middle class, but the core of the party remains blue-collars workers and the large number of public sector employees. SAP also gets most of the immigrant vote. They have shrunk from their traditional level of about 45% down to 35-40% in the last decade.

M - Moderata Samlingspartiet (Moderate Coalition Party), 2002 election result 15.3%, currently polling about 27%. The traditional conservative party, Sweden's second oldest. Suffered a major melt-down in the last election due to proposing unfinanced tax-cuts and the filming of party spokesmen making racist remarks, but has since recovered enormously through moving towards the centre. Has traditionally polled 20-25% of the vote. They still rely mostly on the traditional establishement: big business, aristocracy, retired colonels, and the likes, but combined with the modern yuppies. Regionally their base lies in the suburbs around Stockholm, Gothenburg and in Skåne in the South.

FP - Folkpartiet Liberalerna (The People's Party the Liberals), 2002 election result 13.3%, currently polling about 10%. The traditional liberal party, though also including originally the evangelicals (don't ask me why). Also the party for Jews. Because of that the party retains a very strong loyalty towards Israel and is also very pro-American. On social issues they're generally very liberal and on the economy they support free markets but combined with a generous welfare state (basically similar to the American Democrats). After a disastrous result in 1998 they campaigned for tougher immigration laws, more discipline in schools and allowing the police to bug suspects, all completely contrary to their tradition. This propelled them from smallest major party to the 3rd biggest. Their traditional base is teachers and the educated middle class. Regionally they're mostly strong in urban and suburban areas. 

V - Vänsterpartiet (Left Party), 2002 result 8.3%, currently polling about 4-5%. Used to be known as Sweden's Communist Party and was directed by the Soviet Union untill the late 60s when it changed its name. It dropped Communism from its name in the 90s and modernized under feminist leader Gudrun Schyman, who brought the party into double digits. Under the leadership of declared Communist Lars Ohly, however, the party has steadily lost support after systemtically cleansing all but hard-core loyalists from their ranks. Their traditional base is radical workers and certain radical academics, such as psychologists. Today they also draw strong support from many immigrant groups. Regionally they're strongest in the far North but also does reasonably in urban areas.

KD - Kristdemokraterna (Christian Democrats), 2002 result 9.1%, currently polling at 5-6%. Was founded in the 60s and didn't enter parliament until the 90s. Was ruled by popular legendary leader Alf Svensson for 3 decades and gradually moderated from its evangelical roots, dropping resistance to abortion and homosexuality. They retain however opposition to homosexual marriage and support for family orientated solutions. Their base can be summed up as the, in Sweden fairly small, evangelical vote, which they have by now almost completely stolen from FP. Regionally this means rural areas, particularly in the Swedish Bible Belt, running through Västergötland into Småland, especially around Jönköping where they're the dominating centr-right party.

C - Centerpartiet (Centreparty), 2002 result 6.1%, currently polling about 6%. The traditional party for farmers which gradually changed its image to a more rural party with an environmentalist streak. During the 70s C was Sweden's biggest party, but after losing votes in 7 consecutive elections it faced extinction. New leader Maud Olofsson has transformed and modernized the party, shifting the traditinoally pragmatic, centrist party severely to the right attacking labour laws and proposing a flat tax rate. Is the dominating centre-right party in most rural areas, especially in the North, but has virtually no support at all in urban areas.

MP - Miljöpartiet (Greens), 2002 result 4.7%, currently polling 5-6%. The newest of the major parties, MP was founded in 1981 and entered parliament in 1988. Has never recieved more than 5.5% in a general parliamentary election and was knocked out in 1994, failing the 4% threshold. It's your basic environmentalist party, which has gained a lot of influence because they have held the deciding vote in parliament since 1998. They have also modernized their image becoming more pragmatic and acting very tough in negotionations, where they have forced the SAP to loosen immigration laws, labour market regulations and up-hold vouchers. Their support comes mostly from young urban voters, though regionally their support is essentially the same everywhere.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I have a question :

How is the Forsmark reactor incident affecting the campaign? Does it improve the chances of the Green Party? What's the SAP's stance on nuclear energy?

[Gustaf]

I have a question :

How is the Forsmark reactor incident affecting the campaign? Does it improve the chances of the Green Party?

It isn't really a big deal, I think. Nuclear power isn't a big political issue anymore for most people. TO the extent that it is, there is a stable and very large majority for retaining nuclear power (depending on phrasing it is often as high as 70%). The Forsmark reactor incident didn't do much to change that, I think. The Greens are doing very well without that though, due to the ineptness of the other leftist parties.

What's the SAP's stance on nuclear energy?

I think I speak for Swedes when I say that I would very much like to know that myself... They were very much in favour of nuclear power until the Harrisburg accident. After that they favoured a referendum on the issue, which was held in 1980. The SAP's alternative won the referendum and that alternative is what they support today. Unfortunately, no one ever understood what their alternative meant exactly.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, what will be the impact of the computer-spying scandal involving the Liberal People's Party I heard yesterday about?

http://www.thelocal.se/article.php?ID=4797&date=20060905

[Gustaf]

So, what will be the impact of the computer-spying scandal involving the Liberal People's Party I heard yesterday about?

http://www.thelocal.se/article.php?ID=4797&date=20060905

Hard to tell so far, no post-scandal polls that I have heard of. But it will definitely damage the FP severely, but it isn't certain that it will help the SAP (dismayed FP voters might simply go to other opposition parties). It's getting some "politicians are so crooked"-spin which might lower turn-out and thus harm the SAP.

[Gustaf]

Polls are now showing a very, very close race. M has receded to mid 20s, the SAP seems stuck in mid 30s. After the FP-scandal, all other parties seem stuck at about 6-8%.

[Tender Branson]

What are the latest coalition polls ? The Left and Right Coalition ?

[Gustaf]

What are the latest coalition polls ? The Left and Right Coalition ?

The Right is ahead by about half a point. It's very, very close...

[Gustaf]

This site shows the latest polls. You can choose a time frame, whether to show the blocs or the individual parties, what institute or an average of all of them.

http://www.svd.se/dynamiskt/inrikes/did_13606415.asp

[Colin]

Seems like most of the support that left the Liberal People's Party went to the Centre Party with some going to the Christian Democrats. Makes sense, probably most of the liberals within the party went to the other "liberal" party, or whatever it now is, in the race, Centre, with the old Free Protestant voters going to the Christian Democrats.

[Gustaf]

In the latest SIFO poll the Centre Party is actually 3rd biggest, passing the Liberals by a few tenths of a percentage. Well within MoE of course, but still interesting. Persson also stated that he wanted to cooperate with the centrist parties rather than with MP and V, but the formers' leaders rejected that notion.

[Gustaf]

I would prefer the Centre party to get second seat in Gotland, but that is unlikely.

Unlikely yes, but not impossible. It would require a swing of about 3% (giving the SAP 37% and the Centre party 18%). The former is very likely to occur, and the latter is not out of the question. The Centre party appears to be headed for a national gain of about 1%, but that will be almost exclusively in rural areas, I think. It might well be as high as 3% in many places.

[Gustaf]

Today's daily SIFO-poll shows the Red-Green bloc taking a narrow lead. Other polls contradict this though. SIFO is the best pollster in Sweden, but they're publishing daily polls now, so some fluctuation is bound to occur.