Sweden 2006

[Harry Hayfield]

According to Wikipedia, the shares of the vote last time (2002) were:

Worker's Party Social Democrats 39.85% (144 seats)
Moderates 15.26% (55 seats)
Liberal People's Party 13.39% (48 seats)
Christian Democrats 9.15% (33 seats)
Left Party 8.39% (30 seats)
Centre Party 6.19% (22 seats)
Green Party 4.65% (17 seats)
Others 3.12%

Winning Line 175
Worker's Party Social Democrats short by 31 of an overall majority

Turnout: 80.11%

The polls close at 8.00pm local time (1800 GMT) and the media will be free to publish exit polls. I will be watching EuroNews which is always very good at publishing European election exit polls and will post those figures (and the change on 2002) as soon as they are released.

[Harry Hayfield]

The last poll published by TV4 suggested the following share of the vote:

V 5.9% (-1.6%)
S 33.3 (-0.7%)
MP 5.7% (+1.6%)
C 5.4% (-0.5%)
FP 8.8% (-2.5%)
KD 7.9% (+2.4%)
M 28.3% (+1.1%)

[Gustaf]

TV4 uses Demoskop which isn't very good. Temo is the second best in teh country, their latest poll has the Blue coalition at 51%, the Red-Green at 44%.

[Harry Hayfield]

Here we go then. Exit Poll data being broadcast by EuroNews

6.9 million electorate

Opposition win by 2% (within margin of error)

[jaichind]

It seems to be

TV4
Opposition alliance               48.6%
Social Democrats + allies      46.7%

STV
Opposition alliance               49.7%
Social Democrats + allies      45.6%

[jaichind]

                                 2002                   2006 projections

Social Democrats       39.9%                      34.3%
Left                             8.3%                         7.3%
Greens                        4.5%                         5.5%

Moderate                   15.1%                      26.6%
Liberals                      13.3%                       7.3%
Chrisian Dem               9.1%                       7.6%
Center Party                6.2%                       8.2%

[Harry Hayfield]

EuroNews numbers

Centre Right 48.6%
Soc Dem 46.7%
Centre right lead of 1.9%

Turnout : 81.0%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So a Right lead, but a small one. About as expected then.
How long before we see some real numbers, btw?

[Harry Hayfield]

They reckon on some initial results by about 9.00pm local time (1900 GMT)

[Harry Hayfield]

                                 2002                   2006 projections

Social Democrats       39.9%                      34.3%
Left                             8.3%                         7.3%
Greens                        4.5%                         5.5%

Moderate                   15.1%                      26.6%
Liberals                      13.3%                       7.3%
Chrisian Dem               9.1%                       7.6%
Center Party                6.2%                       8.2%

Social Democrats -5.6%
Left -1.0%
Greens +1.0%

Red / Green Bloc -5.6%

Moderate +11.5%
Liberals -6.0%
Christian Democrats -1.5%
Centre Party +2.0%

Opposition +6.0%

Swing from Red / Green to Opposition: 5.8%

Swing from Social Democrats to Moderates: 8.6%

[afleitch]

This seems to be pretty close...

[Jens]

This seems to be pretty close...

It is extremely close and the risk is that the fine count may move a few mandates and change everything. At 10.05 PM is the difference 0.4 % to the Alliance. Remember that Sweden has a significant amount of postal votes.

[Harry Hayfield]

Taking these changes from EuroNews (but they have a strap that covers the names). Ah, here we are this is more like it some names from Swedish Television. It appears the colours refer to the party names

Red -2.5%
Orange -4.4%
Yellow +0.5%
Green +1.9%
Light Blue +5.8%
Purple +2.5%
Lighter Blue +10.7%

That's with 5629 out of 5783 districts declared

[Harry Hayfield]

5666 districts declared out of 5783

Group Totals (Seats)
Red Grouping 171
Blue Grouping 178

Parties

V 5.8
S 35.4
MP 5.1
C 8.0
FP 7.5
KD 6.6
M 25.9
BV 5.7

[Colin]

Does BV stand for blank votes or is that some party I haven't noticed before?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Persson has conceeded. It looks like the final margin will be something in the region of 1% (Jesus is that tight...). Anyone know how many seats each side'll likely have?

[Colin]

Persson has conceeded. It looks like the final margin will be something in the region of 1% (Jesus is that tight...). Anyone know how many seats each side'll likely have?

Well does anyone have the raw votes? I could plug those into a PV Calculator and see what comes out.

Does Sweden have electoral districts or is it just a national vote?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It has districts, but they are rather large.

[afleitch]

A slim but welcome result

[Jens]

Persson has conceeded. It looks like the final margin will be something in the region of 1% (Jesus is that tight...). Anyone know how many seats each side'll likely have?

Well does anyone have the raw votes? I could plug those into a PV Calculator and see what comes out.

Does Sweden have electoral districts or is it just a national vote?

http://www.val.se/val/val2006/valnatt/R/rike/roster.html

something between 171 to S,V & Mp and 178 to M,C,KD & Fp but it could easily end up 173 to 176. The difference is marginal

[Colin]

There are results on the Swedish election authorities homepage.

http://www.val.se/val/val2006/valnatt/R/rike/roster.html

M Moderata Samlingspartiet 1411814 26,1 97
C Centerpartiet 429274 7,9 29
FP Folkpartiet liberalerna 406496 7,5 28
KD Kristdemokraterna 358424 6,6 24
S Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna 1908711 35,2 130
V Vänsterpartiet 315975 5,8 22
MP Miljöpartiet de gröna 279316 5,2 19
ÖVR Övriga partier 307774 5,7

Right: 178 Seats
Left: 171 Seats

EDIT: Damn you Jens you just had to post that right before I found this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Right: 178 Seats
Left: 171 Seats

Is a majority that small managable in Sweden? Serious question addressed to literally anyone that might know; it certainly wouldn't be here.

[Jens]

There are results on the Swedish election authorities homepage.

http://www.val.se/val/val2006/valnatt/R/rike/roster.html

M Moderata Samlingspartiet 1411814 26,1 97
C Centerpartiet 429274 7,9 29
FP Folkpartiet liberalerna 406496 7,5 28
KD Kristdemokraterna 358424 6,6 24
S Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna 1908711 35,2 130
V Vänsterpartiet 315975 5,8 22
MP Miljöpartiet de gröna 279316 5,2 19
ÖVR Övriga partier 307774 5,7

Right: 178 Seats
Left: 171 Seats

The heavy losers where Fp (-20 M), V (-8 M), S (-14 M)and KD (-8 M). The winners where M (+31 M), C (+7 M) and Mp (+2 M).

I'm just going to check who has the last mandates to see what the changes are of any significant change

[Jens]

Right: 178 Seats
Left: 171 Seats

Is a majority that small managable in Sweden? Serious question addressed to literally anyone that might know; it certainly wouldn't be here.

The easy answer is no but truely perhaps. Because of the proportional system are you more dependant on your party and cannot go against party lines so easily

[Jens]

There are results on the Swedish election authorities homepage.

http://www.val.se/val/val2006/valnatt/R/rike/roster.html

M Moderata Samlingspartiet 1411814 26,1 97
C Centerpartiet 429274 7,9 29
FP Folkpartiet liberalerna 406496 7,5 28
KD Kristdemokraterna 358424 6,6 24
S Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna 1908711 35,2 130
V Vänsterpartiet 315975 5,8 22
MP Miljöpartiet de gröna 279316 5,2 19
ÖVR Övriga partier 307774 5,7

Right: 178 Seats
Left: 171 Seats

EDIT: Damn you Jens you just had to post that right before I found this.

If it is any comfort, was I copying the same numbers when you posted them