MD-SEN 2024: Cardin retiring, Hogan IN

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D not public poll had Trone leading Hogan and Alsobrooks down six, Hogan won't win by 12

[Agafin]

I imagine Hogan would rather run against Alsobrooks than Trone but I don’t know enough about her or about Maryland swing voters to say for sure.

I read a single Politico article on the situation so I'm now basically an expert. Gonna go out on a limb and declare this race only lean D if Alsobrooks wins the D nomination, moving to lean R if Hogan can capture some moderate Murkowski energy instead of seeming as much of a generic R as he has been.

There is no reason aside from Trone’s self-funding to assume Alsobrooks is weaker than Trone. Alsobrooks does not present like a #Squad member at all if that’s the insinuation. She’s very much part of the Dem establishment.

Atlas users, from what I've observed, tend to have a bias against black women politicians and often view them as weaker candidates. For what reasons, I'm not quite sure.

In this case, I think it is about Trone's money.

If Alsobrooks is the nominee, the DSCC will probably end up having to spend a significant amount in one of the country's bluest states despite having multiple seats to defend in red and purple states.

If it's Trone, they can let him self-fund while they can focus on Tester, Brown, Rosen, Baldwin, Gallego, Casey and Slotkin, not to mention putting a bit towards offense in Texas and maybe Florida.

The DSCC doesn’t need to spend a dime in this race. It’s basically fools gold like TN 2018 and MT 2020.

It doesn't matter what fundamentals or past results say, if polls remain even remotely close, they'll have to spend here. Because can you imagine if they don't, and then Hogan wins? They'll never live that one down. People still blame Clinton for not campaigning in Wisconsin to this very day.

[Tekken_Guy]

I imagine Hogan would rather run against Alsobrooks than Trone but I don’t know enough about her or about Maryland swing voters to say for sure.

I read a single Politico article on the situation so I'm now basically an expert. Gonna go out on a limb and declare this race only lean D if Alsobrooks wins the D nomination, moving to lean R if Hogan can capture some moderate Murkowski energy instead of seeming as much of a generic R as he has been.

There is no reason aside from Trone’s self-funding to assume Alsobrooks is weaker than Trone. Alsobrooks does not present like a #Squad member at all if that’s the insinuation. She’s very much part of the Dem establishment.

Atlas users, from what I've observed, tend to have a bias against black women politicians and often view them as weaker candidates. For what reasons, I'm not quite sure.

In this case, I think it is about Trone's money.

If Alsobrooks is the nominee, the DSCC will probably end up having to spend a significant amount in one of the country's bluest states despite having multiple seats to defend in red and purple states.

If it's Trone, they can let him self-fund while they can focus on Tester, Brown, Rosen, Baldwin, Gallego, Casey and Slotkin, not to mention putting a bit towards offense in Texas and maybe Florida.

The DSCC doesn’t need to spend a dime in this race. It’s basically fools gold like TN 2018 and MT 2020.

It doesn't matter what fundamentals or past results say, if polls remain even remotely close, they'll have to spend here. Because can you imagine if they don't, and then Hogan wins? They'll never live that one down. People still blame Clinton for not campaigning in Wisconsin to this very day.

Alsobrooks and the MDP should really cover the expenses.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

It would also be asshaty of Trone to not give Alsobrooks a decent chunk of money if he looses. Not saying he has to open the vaults but he’d look like a sore loser if he keeps his wallet closed.

[Tekken_Guy]

It would also be asshaty of Trone to not give Alsobrooks a decent chunk of money if he looses. Not saying he has to open the vaults but he’d look like a sore loser if he keeps his wallet closed.

Would be smart of the DSCC to get Trone to agree to finance the race if Alsobrooks wins.

[kwabbit]

It would also be asshaty of Trone to not give Alsobrooks a decent chunk of money if he looses. Not saying he has to open the vaults but he’d look like a sore loser if he keeps his wallet closed.

The dude is self-funding, he's not obligated to spend millions on someone that is not himself, especially as the MD establishment put its thumb on the scale. It's a Biden +30 state and the DSCC has unlimited money.

[Lambsbread]

It would also be asshaty of Trone to not give Alsobrooks a decent chunk of money if he looses. Not saying he has to open the vaults but he’d look like a sore loser if he keeps his wallet closed.

I think she'll be fine without a ton of support from him specifically, but I really appreciate the word "asshaty"

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It would also be asshaty of Trone to not give Alsobrooks a decent chunk of money if he looses. Not saying he has to open the vaults but he’d look like a sore loser if he keeps his wallet closed.

No he doesn't have to give her a cent. This is his own money from his own business and he is allowed to keep it and that decision shluld be respected. It's not even like he got it from ActBlue or anything. The only thing Alsobrooks is entitled to is an endorsement for the general from Trone.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It would also be asshaty of Trone to not give Alsobrooks a decent chunk of money if he looses. Not saying he has to open the vaults but he’d look like a sore loser if he keeps his wallet closed.

Why should he?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

It would also be asshaty of Trone to not give Alsobrooks a decent chunk of money if he looses. Not saying he has to open the vaults but he’d look like a sore loser if he keeps his wallet closed.

Why should he?

Well, presumably he’s a Democrat…

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It would also be asshaty of Trone to not give Alsobrooks a decent chunk of money if he looses. Not saying he has to open the vaults but he’d look like a sore loser if he keeps his wallet closed.

Why should he?

Well, presumably he’s a Democrat…

The state party heavily put its finger on the scale for his opponent and frankly it is his money.  He doesn’t owe Alsobrooks anything.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

It would also be asshaty of Trone to not give Alsobrooks a decent chunk of money if he looses. Not saying he has to open the vaults but he’d look like a sore loser if he keeps his wallet closed.

Why should he?

Well, presumably he’s a Democrat…

The state party heavily put its finger on the scale for his opponent and frankly it is his money.  He doesn’t owe Alsobrooks anything.

He’s financed plenty of races across the country, to turn up his nose cause he lost an election is just a bad look, but for him it would make it hard to get support if he ever wants to run for office again.

People don’t like sore losers

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It would also be asshaty of Trone to not give Alsobrooks a decent chunk of money if he looses. Not saying he has to open the vaults but he’d look like a sore loser if he keeps his wallet closed.

Why should he?

Well, presumably he’s a Democrat…

The state party heavily put its finger on the scale for his opponent and frankly it is his money.  He doesn’t owe Alsobrooks anything.

He’s financed plenty of races across the country, to turn up his nose cause he lost an election is just a bad look, but for him it would make it hard to get support if he ever wants to run for office again.

People don’t like sore losers

No one will care.  If I were him, I certainly wouldn’t spend one red cent to help Alsobrooks if she won the primary.  Obviously, he should still endorse her, but it seems extremely entitled to demand he spend his own money to finance the campaign of the person who beat him in a primary earlier that year if he doesn't want to do so.  At the end of the day, it’s Trone’s money.  In any case, Trone is currently more likely than Alsobrooks to be the nominee, so this may all be moot.

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/DavidCayJ/status/1774250579243512140?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/DavidCayJ/status/1774250579243512140?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Yeah, imagine this will come back to haunt him in a big way.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/dlippman/status/1778116018344255623?s=46
Solid, especially since he only entered the race halfway through the quarter.

[Steve from Lambeth]

Why does this race have to be between a racist-stupid politician with immoral business sense, a negligent-stupid politician with vapid positions, and a smart woman with about as much name recognition among the general public as Dave Leip? WHY? Can we please drag some random shop attendant or trash collector off the street and ask them to run?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why does this race have to be between a racist-stupid politician with immoral business sense, a negligent-stupid politician with vapid positions, and a smart woman with about as much name recognition among the general public as Dave Leip? WHY? Can we please drag some random shop attendant or trash collector off the street and ask them to run?

Trone is not a racist

He very clearly misspoke.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/pwoodreporter/status/1778908752789323956

https://twitter.com/NickTagliaferro/status/1778911385520656424

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/pwoodreporter/status/1778908752789323956

https://twitter.com/NickTagliaferro/status/1778911385520656424

It’s better than before, but she is still down in her own internals.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good poll for Alsobrooks

[Bacon King]

She’s not a squad member, but she ran a pretty gross anti-white race-baiting ad.

my friend, unless I'm missing something obvious it genuinely appears that your rhetoric here is nothing short of gratuitous hyperbole.

I assume this is the ad you're talking about, because when it was originally posted ITT you remarked, "hopefully that race-baiter loses to Trone"

https://twitter.com/AlsobrooksForMD/status/1757009620755689659?t=dc6XJWHppfy43SO...

I don't think it counts as race-baiting, let alone "gross race baiting" to show small transparent images of Republican Senators for eight seconds while talking about how most Senators are old as dirt, rich as hell, and extremely out of touch. You have to literally pause the video to make out more than a couple of the faces before they leave the screen. Literally no actual voter is going to pause a political ad and be like "OH WOW THEY'RE ALL WHITE", it's just a quick barrage of people who look 1. old, and 2. rich enough to not buy their own groceries (notice how the largest images are people like Grassley and Romney, who best fit the description).

It's a bog-standard message of "i'm a political outsider who understands the real world, not an out-of-touch insider" that literally every federal candidate uses if they aren't already serving in DC -- and it's delivered in a slightly unorthodox but genuinely effective way.

Those faces are all white because Republicans are all white. Like yeah she's making a point about members of the Senate in general but it would be politically so stupid for her to run an ad that critically portrays any incumbent Democratic Senators - her potential future colleagues!

I genuinely do not understand how the ad could possibly be characterized as "race baiting", unless I'm somehow missing something very obvious here and/or there's context here i'm missing (if so I would genuinely appreciate if you could enlighten me!)

[Bacon King]

Also as one of only two people* to correctly call Larry Hogan's victory in the Atlas 2014 Prediction Contest I would strongly encourage everyone to not underestimate the man



*(also the other person was this Republican hack who forecasted the GOP would win basically everywhere lol)

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Also as one of only two people* to correctly call Larry Hogan's victory in the Atlas 2014 Prediction Contest I would strongly encourage everyone to not underestimate the man



*(also the other person was this Republican hack who forecasted the GOP would win basically everywhere lol)

2014 was nine years and two presidents ago. The same year Bruce Rauner flipped Illinois. It’s a different political game now

[Bacon King]

Also as one of only two people* to correctly call Larry Hogan's victory in the Atlas 2014 Prediction Contest I would strongly encourage everyone to not underestimate the man



*(also the other person was this Republican hack who forecasted the GOP would win basically everywhere lol)

2014 was nine years and two presidents ago. The same year Bruce Rauner flipped Illinois. It’s a different political game now

I sincerely hope you are correct but some of the polling I've seen has me worried.