Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[EastwoodS]

Pedro wins the Peruvian vote but expats may save Fujimori, there’s less of an expat vote than Fujimori hopefuls think there is though.

[EastwoodS]

How do y’all think the American vote will come in???

[EastwoodS]

Fujimori will need North of 70% of expats to feel really good not what she’s projected to get: 68%? Is this right.

[EastwoodS]

The US margin of the vote will decide everything.

It’s gonna be one of the wider margins for Keiko I’d think.

[EastwoodS]

The US margin of the vote will decide everything.

It’s gonna be one of the wider margins for Keiko I’d think.

I'm starting to believe it's becoming too little too late for Fujimori. Castillo's margins in the ares there are tons of ballots to count are 80%+ or 70%+. And in Loreto, Fujimori lead is very, very slowly shrinking, and she needs like 70%+ or more of the remaining ballots there to catch up. I don't think the overseas vote will do it for her. We'll see.

No, I totally agree, my swing o meter has been on Castillo since like 2am, I just feel so bad for all the fujimori stans who went to bed and still have no idea what’s about to happen. A lot of them even think there’s 800k expat votes? Lol no.

[EastwoodS]

So basically Castillo country plus part of Loreto? I wonder if Keiko has any juice left up north.

Late edit, but the 11 remaining jurisdictions combined have their currently-counted votes as:

Castillo 60.60% (163773)
Fujimori 39.40% (106471)

Castillo still hasn't passed a 100K lead, though I'm sure the last of the country will get him there. Which is in the ballpark of "Keiko could make it back, or she may not, it all depends on expat unknowns." Probably safe to say it will be narrower than 2016.

He’s need to surpass 100k in the homeland vote alone, he’s already done that.

[EastwoodS]

It looks like Keiko is already taking a page from some ex-world leader's book...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoHLVxzq5Mw

Who whines neck-and-neck at a horse race?

Someone whose only options are to win or go directly to jail without passing Go

It's funny how the course of this thread has gone from "Fujimori's lead is unbeatable" to "Castillo can't possibly lose" to "Castillo just doesn't have enough votes to overcome Fujimori's legion of Peruvian-Americans". What a rollercoaster.

With 7% reporting Fujimori leads Castillo 80-20 in the US, but it's only given her 3000 votes net. The margin is concerning for Castillo but the turnout is concerning for Fujimori. Of course the number of Peruvians in Miami probably dwarfs the number of Peruvians in New Jersey so lets not get too carried away with extrapolations.

I'd definitely still rather be Castillo and have a 150k lead in hand than be Fujimori hoping for for legendary turnout in Miami, Madrid and Milan.

If NJ is coming in at 80-20 idek wanna know what the insane margin in Miami will be for Keiko, probably 95-5

[EastwoodS]

An underrated reason why the Western Peruvian diaspora vote for KF is due to the past few years scaring them against the left. The likes of people like Jeremy Corbyn keeps the wounds of communism on their back, refreshened with the draconian lockdowns imposed by people like Joe Biden. Remember the huge swings Trump made with Latino voters, it’s clear that the international left gets them agitated to prevent their country from falling further to the lefts clutches.

Please list the draconian lockdowns imposed by Joe Biden.

You can’t even go too far from your home without a vaccine passport anymore. The fact that they’re implementing similar systems for procuring work and food is terrifying for a demographic against Covid restrictions by antisocial leftists.

Latin Americans value freedom of travel and getting up close to people. How else do you explain the #trendz

There aren’t domestic vaccine passports in the US

[EastwoodS]

What do you all think the final margin out of the US will be? 85-15 Keiko?

[EastwoodS]

What do you all think the final margin out of the US will be? 85-15 Keiko?

Canadian votes are in and apparently they went 77-23 for Fujimori. Castillo clearly has this.

I know I’m just asking what the final results out of the US might be

[EastwoodS]

Miami is coming in. Castillo is getting obliterated in it 93-7, but the turnout is only slightly better than in the rest of the US (about 34%).

It was already expected Florida would be the strongest vote for Keiko, considering that state has a very specific type of immigrant, way richer and many are really right-wing. Miami is the city where all the far-right people of the continent go meet lol

Miami - 92%
Tampa - 90%
Charlotte, Dallas, Houston - 84%
Los Angeles, New Orleans, Phoenix, San Diego - 82%
Atlanta - 80%
Chicago, New Jersey  - 79%
San Antonio, Seattle - 77%
Washington DC - 76%
Salt Lake City - 75%
Boston, San Francisco - 74%
NYC - 73%
Denver, Hartford - 72%
Oklahoma - 71%

There is a significant gap that exists between Miami and Tampa to all the others. Between 70-80% is something many other American countries had, like Mexico, Canada and Colombia for example. But 90% is something you only find in a very conservative country like Japan.

Oklahoma at only 71% Keiko is a huge lol considering the state as a whole is conservative on just anything you can think of

[EastwoodS]

Castillo only spent $8,000 and won? lololo

[EastwoodS]

https://larepublica.pe/elecciones/2021/06/10/pedro-francke-reitero-que-no-habra-expropiaciones-ni-estatizaciones-pltc/

Castillo's economic advisor promises no nationalizations, seems like he is trying to moderate before entering office.

Also his social stances