Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[Red Velvet]

80,7% overall (83,5% country, 11% foreign)

Keiko Fujimori 51,5%
Pedro Castillo 48,5%

Castillo reducing the gap in the margins he needs to (at least 0,1% every new 1% counted) but there will still be the foreign votes in the end... If he keeps reducing the margin in the current speed it could end close to 50/50.

Puno and quite a few other Castillo areas is now ahead of the national count so it may be deceptive...

Keiko don’t have much areas though. Some heavy Castillo areas like Cusco still behind.

What I think it will be decisive is Ica (only 43% counted) but that region isn’t heavily leaning to either of them, currently 53/47 to Keiko. So it probably won’t change much but it will slow down Castillo growth trend in the very end considering how divided it is, which will be decisive since it could end 50/50.

So I do think Keiko wins with something around 50,4-50,8. But it depends on how much Castillo grows in the next votes. If he starts diminishing 0,15% every new 1% then he would win but so far it’s closer to 0,1%

[Oryxslayer]

On the topic of Ica, its likely the Department moves towards Keiko when it finally counts. Keiko won here in round 1, and she won it in part thanks to the four province's of the department that have near 0 votes counted. She lost the Ica province in round 1 to Castillo, and it at 99% counted she leads here by the marginal result currently displayed department-wide.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

If the present trend holds exactly then Castillo will squeak ahead in the Peruvian vote but lose overall thanks to the Expat votes. Peru could have an even closer election than 2016 if that actually happens.

An interesting thing I noticed, though, is that Fujimori is currently overperforming the exit poll in the Amazonian provinces (Amazonas, Loreto, Ucayali, etc). It's possible that this was a genuine polling miss but my guess is that the cities are reporting early and the (presumably pro-Castillo) jungle vote is just starting to show up. As an aside, I find it interesting how the mountain provinces have gone 80%+ for Castillo when the jungle provinces are much closer.

In other words, Castillo should probably outperform his current numbers in those provinces and he might actually accelerate his increase towards the end. So he still has a path to victory, albeit a narrow one.

[Oryxslayer]

83.2% overall (86.1% country, 11% foreign)

Keiko Fujimori 51.2% (48%)
Pedro Castillo 48.8% (45.7%)

The interesting thing now is Fujimori has a good number of departments behind the national count, and Castillo has a good number ahead of or on par with said count.

[Red Velvet]

Lima is practically done with 98,3% counted. That’s what’s more important to notice because now there is no major counterbalance to all the rural vote coming in.

[Adam Griffin]

Yeah, this feels over. The Peruvian tradition of electing extraños to the presidency continues! Even if Castillo pulls out a national win, the two-thirds or so of wealthy expats will do him in ultimately.

[Oryxslayer]

85.1% overall (88.2% country, 11% foreign)

Keiko Fujimori 51% (47.8%)
Pedro Castillo 49% (45.9%)

No update from Ica. I am going to keep an eye on Ica in all updates from now on.

Lima at 99%, a few small other departments at 100%. Huanuco at 90%, Puno at 94%, Ancash at 88%. Amazones really caught up this update.

Biggest basket of Castillo votes outstanding is probably Cusco.

[Adam Griffin]

[Oryxslayer]

(La Libertad currently isn't showing results, so I left it blank for the time being)

Yeah I noticed that as well, the site has Castillo and Fujimori's numbers swapped for a moment and had to do a reset. 87% reporting, 60.7% - 39.2% Keiko.

[EastwoodS]

Pedro wins the Peruvian vote but expats may save Fujimori, there’s less of an expat vote than Fujimori hopefuls think there is though.

[Oryxslayer]

Just doing some backhand math right now. About 1/9 of the remaining national vote centers are in Ica alone, and we can expect them to be a net zero at best for Castillo. That means for his purposes the country is more at 89.6% of centers reporting presently, instead of just 88.2%. So yeah, he needs to close the gap by 0.1% per 1% counted. If its the truly "deep" rural areas that are generally left then there may be less votes per center than previously.

[Skye]

86.5% in

Keiko 50.77
Castillo 49.23

This is winnable for Castillo.

[Oryxslayer]

86.5% in

Keiko 50.77
Castillo 49.23

This is winnable for Castillo.

89.6% nation, 91% without Ica - which still hasn't reported. he got ahead of the 0.1% curve here.

[Red Velvet]

Amazing turnaround. He diminished the gap in 0,2% with just 1% more counted.

All the rural vote being counted while Lima is done is really having a big effect. Castillo is having 82% in Cusco.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

God a neck-in-neck race where both canidates fill me with dread. This is a weird feeling.

[Oryxslayer]

Remaining departments with turnout significantly below (>10%) the national count:

AYACUCHO - 73.6% Counted, 82.25% Castillo - 17.75% Fujimori
CUSCO - 77.3% Counted, 82.1% Castillo, 17.9% Fujimori
LORETO - 55.2% Counted, 53.8% Fujimori, 46.2% Castillo
MOQUEGUA - 53.2% Counted, 76.4% Castillo, 23.6% Fujimori

ICA.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Casttilo might pull it off.
https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1401830168969240581

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What % of votes does Castillo need in Cusco in order to win?

[Sestak]

Remaining departments with turnout significantly below (>10%) the national count:

AYACUCHO - 73.6% Counted, 82.25% Castillo - 17.75% Fujimori
CUSCO - 77.3% Counted, 82.1% Castillo, 17.9% Fujimori
LORETO - 55.2% Counted, 53.8% Fujimori, 46.2% Castillo
MOQUEGUA - 53.2% Counted, 76.4% Castillo, 23.6% Fujimori

ICA.

Given what is out in Loreto, the remainder of the department's vote should break pretty solidly for Castillo, yes?

[Oryxslayer]

What % of votes does Castillo need in Cusco in order to win?

Backhand math using the round 1 total votes and the present turnout says there are probably 40K to 50K net Castillo votes at 89.6% Nation. How relevant this is though depends on its relation to the other departments.

[Oryxslayer]

87.7% overall (90.85% country, 11% foreign)

Keiko Fujimori 50.6% (47.4%)
Pedro Castillo 49.4% (46.3%)

Nothing from Ica, currently 16% of remaining vote centers. Excluding Ica we are at 92.3% of the country.

[Sestak]

87.68% counted and Castillo jumps to 49.41

Wow.

[Red Velvet]

Castillo diminished the gap in 0,2% again with only 1% more counted... If this trend is kept then he will win regardless of the foreign vote.

Question is how much longer he can maintain this trend. I’ve never seen a recovery like this in the global elections before, if he manages to pull it off. As some people mentioned, Ica region will probably be the last to be counted and that is more divided so the trend won’t last until the end of the count.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Peru is Latin American Florida. Change my mind.

[Logical]

Does that make Keiko the reverse Rick Scott?