Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

When is the foreign vote expected to come in? I hope we don’t get a US 2020 type situation.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Getting sleep now. Wishing all of you the best of luck with following the election and whatnot.

[EastwoodS]

How do y’all think the American vote will come in???

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

How do y’all think the American vote will come in???

Highly pro-Keiko most likely, although no idea on turnout.

[Sestak]

Update: 91.82 in, 50.203-49.797

Castillo gains 0.19 from 0.4. First update in many hours which we can straight up say is very bad for Castillo.

Still nothing from Cusco, nothing from Lareto from this.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

While we wait for the results, here's some popcorn something mildly amusing. Wikipedia Infoxboxes Are Useless In Latin America, part the infinity - featuring Acción Popular.

TBF each of the two traditional Argentinean parties DO include all of those ideologies

[Octowakandi]

Update: 91.82 in, 50.203-49.797

Castillo gains 0.19 from 0.4. First update in many hours which we can straight up say is very bad for Castillo.

Still nothing from Cusco, nothing from Lareto from this.

Very bad in that he should be getting way more or very bad in that delays means they are burning ballots as we speak?

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Watching Peruvian news at home. Castillo just got in the car in Chiclayo en route to Lima - prepping a victory rally perhaps?

[Oryxslayer]

Getting sleep now. Wishing all of you the best of luck with following the election and whatnot.

Same, I'll probably be back in a few hours or so. Just letting others know though cause I won't be updating.

[Sestak]

~4000 domestic stations left:

~1000 in Loreto (marginal, currently leaning to Fujimori)
~500 in Cusco (5-to-1 for Castillo)
~300 in Liura (3-to-2 for Fujimori)

~2200 elsewhere in Peru (mostly strongly Castillo areas)

~3000 "stations" (though idfk how that works) in the expat vote.

will be very close in the end

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

As more votes come in, it keeps narrowing in Castillo's favor. And they keep showing the Ipsos fast count alongside the official count on TV (though, this could just be because they have an Ipsos guy on as their analyst)

[Sestak]

Update: 92.12 in, 50.172-49.828

Castillo gains 0.031 from 0.3.

Nothing from Cusco. Nothing from Lareto.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

New votes just came in

92.118% reporting

Keiko Fujimori
50.172%
8,285,867

Pedro Castillo
49.828%
8,228,988

[Geoffrey Howe]

So about 1 million left in Peru? And 300,000 expat?
So if Fujimori can get net 100,000 from the expat, Castillo now needs net 150,000 from Peru. That means about 58% of the incoming Peruvian vote.

Is that right?

[Sestak]

So about 1 million left in Peru? And 300,000 expat?
So if Fujimori can get net 100,000 from the expat, Castillo now needs net 150,000 from Peru. That means about 58% of the incoming Peruvian vote.

Is that right?

Something around there, yeah; Castillo getting ~60% of remaining Peru vote should get him just around to the 50.3 mark before the expat dump, which should be enough to survive a 100K hit (though not much higher; if it turns out to be something closer to 130K he will need to be at 50.4, which will take a good deal more at this stage).

[Jeppe]

Some napkin math.

Outstanding votes in provinces where Castillo is leading
45k from Amazonas
50k from Arequipa
100k from Ayacucho
170k from Cusco
45k from Huancavelica
30k from Huanuco
70k from Junin
18k from Madre de Dios
40k from Moquegua
38k from Pasco.
Approximately 606k votes left in provinces where Castillo is winning.

Outstanding vote in provinces where Fujimori is leading
8k from Ica
304k from Loreto
82k from Piura
36k from Ucayali
Approximately 430k votes left in provinces where Fujimori is winning.

Caveat is that Castillo has stronger margins in the most of the provinces where he's winning.

There are estimated to be another ~330-350k votes abroad as well, that are not counted yet.

[Geoffrey Howe]

So about 1 million left in Peru? And 300,000 expat?
So if Fujimori can get net 100,000 from the expat, Castillo now needs net 150,000 from Peru. That means about 58% of the incoming Peruvian vote.

Is that right?

Something around there, yeah; Castillo getting ~60% of remaining Peru vote should get him just around to the 50.3 mark before the expat dump, which should be enough to survive a 100K hit (though not much higher; if it turns out to be something closer to 130K he will need to be at 50.4, which will take a good deal more at this stage).

Right, so to cancel out Peru (at 60% Castillo coming in) the expat vote needs 40% turnout and 70% Fujimori.

[Sestak]

Update: 92.55 in, 50.127-49.873

Castillo gains 0.045 from 0.43.

Nothing from Cusco. Nothing from Loreto. Some movement in Piura on that one, actually.

Better update for Castillo for sure. We'll see if he has enough. A lot relies on how much expat is out. If Bosse is correct on the 330-350K number then there might not be enough for Castillo to survive a 70-30 margin out of it.


[I will note, by the way, that at this stage an update getting the 0.1/1% ratio for Castillo means he got at least ~60% from that update]

[seb_pard]

Argentina with 11% of the vote counted is 57.6% Fujimori, which is not that high. I would say that Chile will have similar margins (or could be more Pro-Castillo), and the country has one of the largest Peruvian communities

[Mike88]

Some napkin math.

Outstanding votes in provinces where Castillo is leading
45k from Amazonas
50k from Arequipa
100k from Ayacucho
170k from Cusco
45k from Huancavelica
30k from Huanuco
70k from Junin
18k from Madre de Dios
40k from Moquegua
38k from Pasco.
Approximately 606k votes left in provinces where Castillo is winning.

Outstanding vote in provinces where Fujimori is leading
8k from Ica
304k from Loreto
82k from Piura
36k from Ucayali
Approximately 430k votes left in provinces where Fujimori is winning.

Caveat is that Castillo has stronger margins in the most of the provinces where he's winning.

There are estimated to be another ~330-350k votes abroad as well, that are not counted yet.

Using this data of ballots yet to count, and following the trends in the regions where these ballots are still left, I calculated that the final result could be something like this:

9,033,222 Castillo (50.3%)
8,921,788 Fujimori (49.7%)

We'll see.

[Sestak]

Argentina with 11% of the vote counted is 57.6% Fujimori, which is not that high. I would say that Chile will have similar margins (or could be more Pro-Castillo), and the country has one of the largest Peruvian communities

Since you mentioned it, might as well list: The countries assigned more than 100 'stations' left to count are:

US 1,044
Spain 500
Argentina 427
Chile 392
Italy 320

All other countries combined count around 300. Again, I have no idea how proportional these 'stations' are, but if they are proportional then this is where 90% of the remaining expat vote is coming from.

[EastwoodS]

Fujimori will need North of 70% of expats to feel really good not what she’s projected to get: 68%? Is this right.

[Red Velvet]

The US margin of the vote will decide everything.

[EastwoodS]

The US margin of the vote will decide everything.

It’s gonna be one of the wider margins for Keiko I’d think.

[seb_pard]

Yeah, particularly Miami is going to be a bloodbath, but hope cities like NYC offset that result