Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[MRCVzla]

OG Title: Peruvian presidential and legislative elections (April 11 and June 6, 2021)

Peru goes to the polls in less than 2 weeks to elect a President, their two Vice President ticket, 5 Andean Parliament members and formally renew again the unicameral 130 seat-Congress, after the crazy year who 2020 was, started with a snap parliamentary election who elected an even unpopular Congress and a succesful impeachment who got three Presidents in a week, in a mid of the COVID pandemic who hit hard the country and also affected negatively the current caretaker administration of Francisco Sagasti. 18 candidates are in the Presidential ballot, while in the Congress, no reelection is allowed neither for the MPs elected in 2016 and 2020. Corruption, economy, inmigration (specially with the Venezuelan refugees) and the pandemic management are the main issues of the campaign.

If no Presidential candidate gets 50%+1 votes, the top two candidates will go to the runoff who will take place two months later, in early June. For the Congress, the 130 members are elected in 27 multi-member constituencies with open listsand parties must cross the 5% nationwide threshold or 7 seats in one district to get seats allocated with the D'Hondt method.

The main candidates (in order of current polling):
Yonhy Lescano (Popular Action): Former congressman with support in rural highland areas. Elected in the party primary under a left-wing platform opposing many right-wing decisions taked by his party..
Rafael López Aliaga (Popular Renewal): Businessman with no major political experience (previously was a councilor in Lima City), runs in a ultraconservative platform self-proclaimed as the "Peruvian Bolsonaro" . The party is the rebrand of the old National Solidarity Party of ultra-corrupt former Lima mayor Luis Castañeda.
George Forsyth (National Victory): This former soccer goalkeeper was until his nomination the mayor of the Lima district of La Victoria as independent, he was leading the opinion polls at the start of the campaign under a anti-corruption platform but his prospects has fallen quickly due to unexperience. The party who supports is also a rename of the minor conservative religious National Restoration party.
Keiko Fujimori (Popular Force): Alberto Fujimori' daughter is running for a third time. Still a controversial figure, but with lower support due to being involved in the Odebrecht scandal (and arrested pretrial until a conditional release) and with her parliamentary caucus' obstructing the Kuzcynski and Vizcarra administrations. Also still vows for give a pardon to his father if she wins.
Verónika Mendoza (Together for Peru): second run for the left-wing New Peru leader running with a accord with JPP alliance. She placed third in 2016 election and continues to hold resistance from some voters due to her socialist platform.
Hernando de Soto (Go on Country): A renowned economist with a technical profile but he has past with the Fujimorists. In the last months has established a "shadow cabinet" to offer an alternative in order to concurr and apply De Soto' proposals during the pandemic crisis.
César Acuña (Alliance for Progress): Former mayor of Trujillo and governor of La Libertad province, he tried to run in 2016 but was disqualified for alleged vote buying. Parliamentary' voting record of his party and contradicting his campaign rhetoric has damaged their prospects.
Daniel Urresti (We Are Peru): Former Interior Minister in Humala administration, was the most-voted candidate in the 2020 Congress election, but his image is also negative being under investigation for the murder of a journalist during his Army general' days.
Pedro Castillo (Free Peru): A left-wing candidate, former leader of the national teachers union, gained attention as led teachers strikes during PPK' presidency but also gained controversy for engaging virtual meetings with former Sendero Luminoso members, rising lately in the polls.
Julio Guzmán (Purple Party): Former public administrator, with a failed 2016 run due to irregularities, but also with negative image due to a personal love affair scandal. His centrist party is currently in government under Francisco Sagasti.
Ollanta Humala (Peruvian Nationalist Party): the only former President running, remained unpopular throughout his presidency and affected he and his wife in the Odebrecht scandal (also served pretrial detention and still under investigation)
Daniel Salaverry (We Are Peru): An architecht with local politics experience and former Congress President, the main attractive for his candidacy and party platform his having former president Martín Vizcarra as the main parliamentary candidate for the Metropolitan Lima district.

Other minor candidates:
Alberto Beingolea (Christian People's Party): Former congressman with a successful career as sport journalist.
Marco Arana (Broad Front): Former bishop and congressman, was vicepresidential ticket of Verónika Mendoza' 2016 run.
Rafael Santos (Peru Secure Homeland): Businessman expert on agrarian exportation area.
José Vega (Union for Peru): Congressman who runs in the ethnocacerist platform who Antauro Humala leads.
Ciro Gálvez (National United Renaissance): Junín-based lawyer who runs in a conservative platform.
Andrés Alcántara (Direct Democracy): Left-wing populist candidate who presides the FONAVI housing pensioners association, campaigning for the full pension devolution achieved previously via referendum and a full state-reform with a new Constitution.

During this week (March 29, 30 and 31) were the Presidential debates hold by the National Jury of Elections (JNE). In the Congress elections, Popular Action (AP) despite being damaged for the brief presidency of Manuel Merino after the Vizcarra impeachment, still tops the preferences on the opinion polls, followed by the christian-agrarian FREPAP party who was the surprise of the 2020 snap Congress election, as well Meanwhile Vizcarra' We Are Peru (SP) or Fujimori' Popular Force (FP) are looking "well" in the polls, around other 5-to-7 parties are over or around the threshold according the polls, some of them may depend of their presidential performance (Lopez Aliaga' RP, Forsyth' VN or De Soto' Avanza País) to make it in the Congress.

[Octowakandi]

So how were the debates? Did you watch them?

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Thank you for the summary!

[Velasco]

Long article about candidate Veronika Mendoza in the Spanish edition of the NYT,  by Peruvian writer Gabriela Wiener

https://www.nytimes.com/es/2021/03/30/espanol/opinion/elecciones-peru-2021.html

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I'm surprised nobody's here considering the election is tomorrow. Polls are all over the place but  Lescano, López Aliaga, Fujimori, De Soto and Mendoza seem to be in the lead, though vote shares shift rapidly. Forsyth appears to have faded hard to right wing candidates and Guzman to Lescano and Mendoza.

Most runoff polling indicates Fujimori would be crushed regardless of opponent and that Lescano would have a strong (but not necessarily insurmountable) lead against everyone else but most other matchups (eg. Mendoza v LA or De Soto v LA) have pretty wide variation. Considering how close the first round polling is you could easily see the right or left get locked out entirely.

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1380979333712408579

[kaoras]

I bet on an upset by some random candidate™ that manages a last-minute surge. 

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I bet on an upset by some random candidate™ that manages a last-minute surge. 

Watch it be Pedro Castillo.

[buritobr]

7 candidates have the possibility of taking the 2 places of the runoff. This is exciting!

[MRCVzla]

The close is very tight and will be interesting tomorrow and next week to watch who wins the 2 spots in the runoff. Two polls has been released today and show the rise of the leftist candidate Castillo, CPI shows him in 2nd place vs. Lescano and is leading the Ipsos poll vs. De Soto who also had a rise lately.

However, some Peruvians abroad will not cast their votes tomorrow due to COVID restrictions, second wave of the pandemic is hitting hard the region, including Perú itself, many presidential candidates has tested positive for COVID like Forsyth or the UPP candidate Vega in recent days. In this election, Peruvians abroad will have for first time their own Congress constituency (separate from Metropolitan Lima)
https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1381080322855555073

[jaichind]

I wonder what the vote share of the "winning candidate" end up being.  I suspect it will be below 20%.

[America Needs R'hllor]

This is so wild. At a glance, Lescano seems like the most tolerable candidate, but the overall candidate slate is amazing. A famous soccer player, a famous economist, a former President, a potential murderer who is somehow far from the worst candidates because the others are a potential Maoist, a self proclaimed Peruvian Bolsonaro and a dictator's daughter who wants to pardon her father. Amazing.

Think we'll be seeing the results tomorrow?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I wonder what the vote share of the "winning candidate" end up being.  I suspect it will be below 20%.

I’d be surprised if it weren’t below 15%, including blank and voided votes.

[Velasco]

7 candidates have the possibility of taking the 2 places of the runoff. This is exciting!

I don't think there's anything exciting in this inextricable chaos, that it's a clear sign of the advanced stage of institutional decomposition that ruins Peru. Besides, all candidates look terrible with the possible exception of Mendoza

[warandwar]

My guess is Castillo-Fujimori or Castillo-De Soto. De Soto is, in his field, quite famous and quite evil.

Edit: be a little careful with "potential Maoist." In Peru, the right throws that at anyone on the Left. There was a photoshopped image of Mendoza posing in front of Guzman's house this campaign, for example. But this is quite clearly a symptom of panic about rural/indian voters who (justifiably) are fed up with Peru's hilariously awful political class. Mendoza is more likeable as a candidate (on lgbt issues, fx), but seems like chickens coming home to roost here.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

My guess is Castillo-Fujimori or Castillo-De Soto. De Soto is, in his field, quite famous and quite evil.

"Gee Brain De Soto, what do you want to do tonight?"

"The same thing we do every night Pinky Fujimori, try to liberalize the Peruvian economy!"

More seriously, De Soto and his party remind me a lot of Novo in Brazil; hardcore libertarian activist types at the bottom, bloodless neoliberals at the top. Still, he has by far the best approval ratings of anyone running so I'd imagine he's got an advantage against anyone except Lescano.

Castillo vs Fujimori might be exciting to watch from afar but not a result I'd want were I Peruvian

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1378843165680136195

[Lord Halifax]

Mendoza is more likeable as a candidate (on lgbt issues, fx), but seems like chickens coming home to roost here.

In what way?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If anyone gets over 30% I will eat my hat.

[Velasco]

My guess is Castillo-Fujimori or Castillo-De Soto. De Soto is, in his field, quite famous and quite evil.

Edit: be a little careful with "potential Maoist." In Peru, the right throws that at anyone on the Left. There was a photoshopped image of Mendoza posing in front of Guzman's house this campaign, for example. But this is quite clearly a symptom of panic about rural/indian voters who (justifiably) are fed up with Peru's hilariously awful political class. Mendoza is more likeable as a candidate (on lgbt issues, fx), but seems like chickens coming home to roost here.

Yes, exactly.  I simply renounce to explain these things to fake progressives who pay attention to reactionary smear campaigns and actually work in the service of reactionary causes. Mendoza is the only candidate who represents a certain "contemporary left". She's neither Maoist nor Chavista

[warandwar]

Mendoza is more likeable as a candidate (on lgbt issues, fx), but seems like chickens coming home to roost here.

In what way?

Castillo is very religious - against govt recognition of same-sex marriage, gor example.

[America Needs R'hllor]

My guess is Castillo-Fujimori or Castillo-De Soto. De Soto is, in his field, quite famous and quite evil.

Edit: be a little careful with "potential Maoist." In Peru, the right throws that at anyone on the Left. There was a photoshopped image of Mendoza posing in front of Guzman's house this campaign, for example. But this is quite clearly a symptom of panic about rural/indian voters who (justifiably) are fed up with Peru's hilariously awful political class. Mendoza is more likeable as a candidate (on lgbt issues, fx), but seems like chickens coming home to roost here.

Yes, exactly.  I simply renounce to explain these things to fake progressives who pay attention to reactionary smear campaigns and actually work in the service of reactionary causes. Mendoza is the only candidate who represents a certain "contemporary left". She's neither Maoist nor Chavista

If you must know, I was referring to Castillo and his potential ties to the Shining Path (and thus, potential Maoist) and not to Mendoza. Mendoza is probably my first or second choice in this slate, but I'll proudly wear the "fake progressive" title from people whose leftist benevolence extends to everyone but Jews, and thus work for some very reactionary causes.

[jaichind]

In 2016 Valid/Invalid vote was something like 82/18.  I suspect this time it might reach 75/25

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Polls close in 40 minutes. Exit poll results will come out immediately, while the ONPE quick count will likely take several more hours.

[jaichind]

Polls close in 40 minutes. Exit poll results will come out immediately, while the ONPE quick count will likely take several more hours.

I thought polls close 7pm Lima time and not 6pm Lima time

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Polls close in 40 minutes. Exit poll results will come out immediately, while the ONPE quick count will likely take several more hours.

I thought polls close 7pm Lima time and not 6pm Lima time

You’re right. I just assumed they were in the same time zone as me (as they usually are) and forgot about Daylight Savings Time. My mistake.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Just before results come in, here's LA casting his vote to a live band playing the Looney Toons theme:

https://twitter.com/Jorgedelama/status/1381281968982229000

Also, Pedro Castillo's horse tried to make a break for freedom while he was riding in to vote